Bradley Beal - Part IV

[dobrojim]

After getting their big 3, the Suns went from Champ aspirations to irrelevant quickly.

[doclinkin]

I We are in position in spite of ourselves at this point, if the Suns blow up this mess over the next year or so, not out of genius or not getting fleeced, just out of blind dumb luck that just as we had the worst possibility play out in terms of the handling of Beal as an asset, it appears the worse possible result from the acquisitions of guys to build around Booker the past couple of years is also playing out.

The only part of your post I disagree with. It was entirely predictable that the Suns would detonate on themselves in this. I say because I predicted it. KD on a cadaver's tendon, Beal whose wheels periodically fall off, Booker a small guard who plays high intensity and relies on speed and athleticism. All of them have spent significant time on the medic's stretcher in their recent history. That Beal carried a poison pill in his contract was exactly the reason we shipped him and exactly the reason they were likely to get swallowed up by a sinkhole. That was obvious. Getting dibs on their draft picks and swaps was absolutely the smart play. Not luck.

We can rail about the mismanagement of assets in the past, holding onto players too long out of some misguided loyalty, but if anything this FO catches hell for the opposite reason. See the Deni flagellation in the other thread. It seems like some part of their long term plan is to take advantage of other front offices that can't see that far. Hell, I wonder if shipping Deni was in some part a power play to test Ted and take him at his word that they had free reign to do what they saw fit to reshape the franchise. Tommy got fired in part for mismanaging Rui, shipping him to the Lakers, losing part of their international audience/marketing opportunities.

We are potentially poised to take advantage of the Suns because we made a smart deal. This team prioritizes long term return. We have markers on the table out to 2030. We are systematically and with purpose tanking, risking nothing, to ensure a high draft pick in the next 2 drafts, trying to dodge the consequences of the prior regime. We are all in on the future, shedding everything from the past. I think Anthony Gill is the only guy left from the prior team. We are in the 'collecting assets' phase of a rebuild and have committed everything to doing that.

As a reminder:

The Wizards now control, either directly or through pick swaps, eight first-round picks between 2025 and 2031. And they have two more firsts coming their way — one in 2026; the other in 2029 — that they don’t control. The ’26 pick will be the least favorable between Oklahoma City, Houston and the Clippers; the ’29 pick will be the second-most favorable among Portland, Milwaukee and Boston. That’s 10 firsts total in the next seven drafts. (A highly protected 2030 first that Washington is scheduled to get from Golden State as part of the Chris Paul trade in 2023 is not likely to convey to the Wizards and would instead turn into a 2030 second-rounder from the Warriors.)

And, the Wizards have 16 second-round picks between 2025 and 2030, including free and clear second-rounders from Phoenix (each draft between 2025 and 2027, and in 2030), Chicago (2026), Golden State (2027 and 2028), Sacramento (2028, via Denver) the Lakers and Sacramento (both in 2029) and Portland (2030). The Wizards will also get the more favorable of the 2027 second-round pick of the Mavericks or Nets. Given the current trajectory of many of those teams, at least a few of those picks are likely to be very high in the second round — and could potentially be used by Washington to try and move up into the back end of first rounds between 2025 and 2030.

That plus 7 guys on the team from the last 2 drafts (counting 2nd rounders Vuk and Colby Jones). A PIF-load of 4 rookies from this prior year. We have 2 first rounders this next draft. At some point half the team may be too young to legally drink.

The strategy requires patience. From the fanbase, sure, but especially the thin skinned owner, who has taken high profile losses in his bid to move the team etc. And who is already trying to raise ticket prices to make up the difference. Probably banking on a bump from Cooper Flagg before the lotto balls are even in the hopper. The national media will clown on the team, the pundits wail about the strategy of designed losses. The competition committee is already talking about ways to neuter tanking. This group has to be smart to steer this ship through the obstacles and bring the strategy home. Luck is part of it, sure, but they are taking no chances on luck. They are making their own luck. Turning 2nd rounders into 1st rounders. Spinning losses into future wins. And a large part of that requires undoing the mistakes of the last group. From the owner on down. From the last Anthony Gill on the bench up to the top lotto picks this year and hopefully next.

[dobrojim]

I We are in position in spite of ourselves at this point, if the Suns blow up this mess over the next year or so, not out of genius or not getting fleeced, just out of blind dumb luck that just as we had the worst possibility play out in terms of the handling of Beal as an asset, it appears the worse possible result from the acquisitions of guys to build around Booker the past couple of years is also playing out.

The only part of your post I disagree with. It was entirely predictable that the Suns would detonate on themselves in this. I say because I predicted it. KD on a cadaver's tendon, Beal whose wheels periodically fall off, Booker a small guard who plays high intensity and relies on speed and athleticism. All of them have spent significant time on the medic's stretcher in their recent history. That Beal carried a poison pill in his contract was exactly the reason we shipped him and exactly the reason they were likely to get swallowed up by a sinkhole. That was obvious. Getting dibs on their draft picks and swaps was absolutely the smart play. Not luck.

We can rail about the mismanagement of assets in the past, holding onto players too long out of some misguided loyalty, but if anything this FO catches hell for the opposite reason. See the Deni flagellation in the other thread. It seems like some part of their long term plan is to take advantage of other front offices that can't see that far. Hell, I wonder if shipping Deni was in some part a power play to test Ted and take him at his word that they had free reign to do what they saw fit to reshape the franchise. Tommy got fired in part for mismanaging Rui, shipping him to the Lakers, losing part of their international audience/marketing opportunities.

We are potentially poised to take advantage of the Suns because we made a smart deal. This team prioritizes long term return. We have markers on the table out to 2030. We are systematically and with purpose tanking, risking nothing, to ensure a high draft pick in the next 2 drafts, trying to dodge the consequences of the prior regime. We are all in on the future, shedding everything from the past. I think Anthony Gill is the only guy left from the prior team. We are in the 'collecting assets' phase of a rebuild and have committed everything to doing that.

As a reminder:

The Wizards now control, either directly or through pick swaps, eight first-round picks between 2025 and 2031. And they have two more firsts coming their way — one in 2026; the other in 2029 — that they don’t control. The ’26 pick will be the least favorable between Oklahoma City, Houston and the Clippers; the ’29 pick will be the second-most favorable among Portland, Milwaukee and Boston. That’s 10 firsts total in the next seven drafts. (A highly protected 2030 first that Washington is scheduled to get from Golden State as part of the Chris Paul trade in 2023 is not likely to convey to the Wizards and would instead turn into a 2030 second-rounder from the Warriors.)

And, the Wizards have 16 second-round picks between 2025 and 2030, including free and clear second-rounders from Phoenix (each draft between 2025 and 2027, and in 2030), Chicago (2026), Golden State (2027 and 2028), Sacramento (2028, via Denver) the Lakers and Sacramento (both in 2029) and Portland (2030). The Wizards will also get the more favorable of the 2027 second-round pick of the Mavericks or Nets. Given the current trajectory of many of those teams, at least a few of those picks are likely to be very high in the second round — and could potentially be used by Washington to try and move up into the back end of first rounds between 2025 and 2030.

That plus 7 guys on the team from the last 2 drafts (counting 2nd rounders Vuk and Colby Jones). A PIF-load of 4 rookies from this prior year. We have 2 first rounders this next draft. At some point half the team may be too young to legally drink.

The strategy requires patience. From the fanbase, sure, but especially the thin skinned owner, who has taken high profile losses in his bid to move the team etc. And who is already trying to raise ticket prices to make up the difference. Probably banking on a bump from Cooper Flagg before the lotto balls are even in the hopper. The national media will clown on the team, the pundits wail about the strategy of designed losses. The competition committee is already talking about ways to neuter tanking. This group has to be smart to steer this ship through the obstacles and bring the strategy home. Luck is part of it, sure, but they are taking no chances on luck. They are making their own luck. Turning 2nd rounders into 1st rounders. Spinning losses into future wins. And a large part of that requires undoing the mistakes of the last group. From the owner on down. From the last Anthony Gill on the bench up to the top lotto picks this year and hopefully next.

Given the number of assets ie future picks, this strategy will also require some gazing into
the crystal ball to project what current players we should keep as well as what future
available draft picks realistically project to. This is likely to be obvious in some cases
and much less obvious in others. Brutally honest evaluations.

But they are definitely stockpiling assets.