How Far Back Does This Gut-Punch Push the Rebuild?

[dobrojim]

As opposed to historical regimes in DC that never
planned ahead of trying to get a 7-8 seed which
would typically end in a FR exit.

[Rafael122]

Keep in mind we’re in this position because of Ernie and Shep, where we pretty much have to be a title contending team or an awful team so that we can keep our picks. I think ending the suck after ‘26 was the goal regardless just because of the pick protections so I don’t know this changes anything. We basically had a a 47% chance at the 5th or 6th pick versus 14% at the 1st. It was math

[payitforward]

...Without top-end mega-talent we have a familiar conundrum, as the young guys get better and better, and win more and more … but not nearly enough to get to 55 wins or better.

...the rebuild no longer has the feel of a deep, foundational layering with a clear and steady ascent — it looks murky.

Imagine it was 2008, & we had picks 2 & 3. Wouldn't that be great? We could get both Michael Beasley & OJ Mayo. Be a lot better than getting stuck with picks in the 20s & 40s & having to content ourselves with bums like Ryan Anderson, Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum & Goran Dragic, don't you think?

Or, worse yet, think of the next year, 2009 -- why if we had the 2d pick, we'd have our choice of Hasheem Thabeet or Tyreke Evans.
& heaven forfend we be all the way down at 7, where there'd be no shot at Ricky Rubio or Jonny Flynn -- we'd be stuck with whatever we could squeeze out of that mid-lottery pick. Say Steph Curry. Be stuck with him. Almost as bad as if we had #9 & were forced to watch as Thabeet, Evans, Rubio & Flynn were snatched from us, & we were forced to content ourselves with DeMar DeRozan: what an awful fate!

Or, even more unthinkably, if you fell all the way below the lottery & were stuck with Jrue Holiday!

But, how does that even compare to the disaster of the following year, 2010, where if you'd pulled #2, you could quickly nab Evan Turner. Or at 4, you'd snap up Wesley Johnson -- either one would be a sigh of relief compared to being shoved down to 10 where all you'd have available to you would be Paul George.

It's the same every year. Disaster after disaster after disaster unless you are among the favored few at the tippy top of the draft where studs like Derrick Williams (just to continue one more year to 2011) can be found: no way you'd be stuck with a mid-R1 bum like Kawhi Leonard or, worse yet, a guy who barely manages to sneak into R1 at all, Jimmy Butler -- or most horribly shocking of all imagine you wound up, somehow, at the very end of the draft -- why would you even bother picking a laughable non entity like Isaiah Thomas....?

I guess we'll just have to hope we don't wind up in the fatefully tragic position of that Bay Area team, the Warriors, who have never had a really high pick & have had to try -- with no success, obviously -- to build & rebuild based on guys picked in the thirties. Tragic, really....

Then again, you...

could be wrong.

There is that possibility, yes.

[The Consiglieri]

Keep in mind we’re in this position because of Ernie and Shep, where we pretty much have to be a title contending team or an awful team so that we can keep our picks. I think ending the suck after ‘26 was the goal regardless just because of the pick protections so I don’t know this changes anything. We basically had a a 47% chance at the 5th or 6th pick versus 14% at the 1st. It was math

And it still is, although, we get those Sun's lottery balls next year if they suck, which could prove decisive (please, please, please let the Sun's idiotic plan finish blowing up in their faces to the tune of a 55+ loss season).

[badinage]

...Without top-end mega-talent we have a familiar conundrum, as the young guys get better and better, and win more and more … but not nearly enough to get to 55 wins or better.

...the rebuild no longer has the feel of a deep, foundational layering with a clear and steady ascent — it looks murky.

Imagine it was 2008, & we had picks 2 & 3. Wouldn't that be great? We could get both Michael Beasley & OJ Mayo. Be a lot better than getting stuck with picks in the 20s & 40s & having to content ourselves with bums like Ryan Anderson, Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum & Goran Dragic, don't you think?

Or, worse yet, think of the next year, 2009 -- why if we had the 2d pick, we'd have our choice of Hasheem Thabeet or Tyreke Evans.
& heaven forfend we be all the way down at 7, where there'd be no shot at Ricky Rubio or Jonny Flynn -- we'd be stuck with whatever we could squeeze out of that mid-lottery pick. Say Steph Curry. Be stuck with him. Almost as bad as if we had #9 & were forced to watch as Thabeet, Evans, Rubio & Flynn were snatched from us, & we were forced to content ourselves with DeMar DeRozan: what an awful fate!

Or, even more unthinkably, if you fell all the way below the lottery & were stuck with Jrue Holiday!

But, how does that even compare to the disaster of the following year, 2010, where if you'd pulled #2, you could quickly nab Evan Turner. Or at 4, you'd snap up Wesley Johnson -- either one would be a sigh of relief compared to being shoved down to 10 where all you'd have available to you would be Paul George.

It's the same every year. Disaster after disaster after disaster unless you are among the favored few at the tippy top of the draft where studs like Derrick Williams (just to continue one more year to 2011) can be found: no way you'd be stuck with a mid-R1 bum like Kawhi Leonard or, worse yet, a guy who barely manages to sneak into R1 at all, Jimmy Butler -- or most horribly shocking of all imagine you wound up, somehow, at the very end of the draft -- why would you even bother picking a laughable non entity like Isaiah Thomas....?

I guess we'll just have to hope we don't wind up in the fatefully tragic position of that Bay Area team, the Warriors, who have never had a really high pick & have had to try -- with no success, obviously -- to build & rebuild based on guys picked in the thirties. Tragic, really....

Then again, you...

could be wrong.

There is that possibility, yes.

Well, sure.

We could come away from this with a good player. Maybe (pretty please) two.

But had we gotten #1, we would have gotten a sure thing. Not just a great player, and possibly a superstar, but a great player who plays with and spews fire (a la Kobe, a la Jordan, a la Bird) and who would elevate this team into relevance simply by suiting up for game 1.

The fact we didn’t — no, it doesn’t mean all is lost.

But THAT is lost.

There *are* teams in this league who have rebuilt relatively quickly by snagging — by being lucky enough to snag — a player like that. The Spurs are one of them. Dallas ought to have been done for — and now look: they’re going to nab their SECOND generational star in 7 years.

We’re just not lucky like that.

THAT’S the dismay here.

[TheBlackCzar]

Flagg, Bailey, and Harper were standouts that people had their eyes on for years now, and consensus top 3 picks, so it definitely hurts to miss out on them. VJ was similarly hyped but lacked the production of the other 3. Tre Johnson was a tier below, as far as HS prospect goes, but really showed out this year.

But next year there are just as many "since they were freshmen in HS" type stars coming out with AJ Dybantsa being called one of the best HS prospects since Zion (better than Flagg), Cameron Boozer, and Alijah Arenas. Plus there are some bargain bin guys like DJ Wagner and Andrei Stojakovic that have NBA pedigree and NBA skills in next year's R2.

I was in my feels but the Wiz front office can be smart this year and see if they can snag Tre Johnson or trade down for some really good players in the mid-rounds that many others here have already listed. My personal preference is Traore.

For vets, we've got Middleton going into his final year, 2 more years of Poole, Brogdon coming off the books, Smart on an expiring, and Holmes on an expiring.

For young guys, we've got Sarr, Coulibaly, Kispert, Bub, Kyshawn, AJ Johnson, and Champagnie locked up.

I hope we bring back Vukcevic who is incredibly talented as an end-of-bench guy.

For our young core, we desperately need a guard. I like Bub, but he's a role player. We have a glut of wings, but none of them can create for themselves, especially off the dribble and getting to the rim. Brogdon led our team in FTA/36 last season, by a large margin. Bub was dead last at 1.2, below Kispert, a 3 point specialist. We need a free throw merchant.

Also, someone is going to overpay Ty Jerome this season. I hope it's us.

The early projections for '26 I see everywhere are:

1.01 Peterson beginning to pass Dybantsa according to some scouts.
1.01B: Dybantsa
1.03: Boozer
1.04 Wildcard: Ament

I don't really see Arenas in anyones big 3 or 4 anywhere, even before the unfortunate accident.

So to me anyway, the situation is actually more advantageous than '25, especially if the Suns fall completely apart in '25-'26, a repeat of '24-'25 alone would improve our top 3 chances an extra 12+% if the suns were as bad, top 4 chances would improve a full 17% to nearly 70% odds of landing 1, 2, 3 or 4, which is the tier 1, and wildcard almost tier 1 of next years class.

Very exciting if the Suns suck in particular and we keep our pick.

Alijah was probably the 3rd or 4th best player in the McDonald's practices.... So I'd venture to say he'd be in the top 5 or 6 prospects next year.

[pancakes3]

My post was mostly cope, but I've talked myself into believing that we can get as good a star in next year's crop as this year's. I don't think Flagg/Bailey/Harper are in the Jokic/Doncic/Wemby tier and closer to the Cade/Paolo tier. Still a punch to the gut since Poole is our best player and he's probably 2 tiers below that.

Being a ping pong ball away from Wemby is definitely a bigger delta than this year imo, especially if we can still salvage with Tre Johnson (I really believe in that kid).

Keep slinging that koolaid of us having a 70% chance at top 4 for next season. Any one of Peterson, Dybansta, Boozer, or player TBD would be a huge boost to our talent.

And a puncher's chance of landing Giannis in FA.

[GoneShammGone]

My post was mostly cope, but I've talked myself into believing that we can get as good a star in next year's crop as this year's. I don't think Flagg/Bailey/Harper are in the Jokic/Doncic/Wemby tier and closer to the Cade/Paolo tier. Still a punch to the gut since Poole is our best player and he's probably 2 tiers below that.

Being a ping pong ball away from Wemby is definitely a bigger delta than this year imo, especially if we can still salvage with Tre Johnson (I really believe in that kid).

Keep slinging that koolaid of us having a 70% chance at top 4 for next season. Any one of Peterson, Dybansta, Boozer, or player TBD would be a huge boost to our talent.

And a puncher's chance of landing Giannis in FA.

I just want to make a point about the uncertainty surrounding this whole discussion. You mention how close we were to getting Wemby, but look at Wemby right now. I'm not totally sure he will ever play again. DVTs are no joke and they ended Chris Bosh's career early. Dealing with a DVT as a professional athlete is similar to having to deal with concussions---its very hard to say what the risk is long term and every player is going to evaluate that differently. Point being... even if everything goes right, it can still go wrong.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[closg00]

Read on Twitter

[dckingsfan]

I don't think you can argue it pushes back the rebuild. We knew what the odds were going in. Just keep on stockpiling assets and try to develop players. Next years draft is better. We only had like a 27% chance of winning the lottery.

Next year's class has a big 3, and a potential big 4 if Ament hits that level.

40% chance at the big 3, 50% at the big 4, with slots 3 and 4 probably more secure than they were this year, in terms of ceiling.

But man oh man, if we get 6 in '25 and like 5 or 6 in '26.....that's part of the reason I'd like to trade the 6, more lottery balls. At least in '26, we potentially get the Suns balls if they implode again. If next year is like this, w/suns and wizards balls we'd be 52.4% top 3, instead of 40%, and 69.4% for a top 4 pick instead of 52%. So more balls, equals more hope, as another poster has mentioned periodically in posts this late winter and spring.

This is the right thinking. It just pushes the "luck" back a year. But it is a gambling issue. You have to keep hoping that your number comes up.

Next year, probably a few of the late lottery picks jump into the top 4. Historically, one or two. Another point, Dallas and SA benefit much more winning the draft than a bottom feeder - that is the real "luck".

As you can see from this year, tanking hard is as helpful as "luck". So the answer is, year after year it will be luck. But you can enhance your luck buy getting assets in the better draft class (hint: don't by into '24 buy into '26).

Code: Select all

Top 4    #1 Ovr
52.10%   14.00%
52.10%   14.00%
52.10%   14.00%
48.10%   12.50%
42.10%   10.50%
37.20%    9.00%
32.00%    7.50%
26.30%    6.00%
20.30%    4.50%
13.90%    3.00%
 9.40%    2.00%
 7.10%    1.50%
 4.80%    1.00%
 2.40%    0.50%

[J-Ves]

If we get a top 2-3 pick next year we are right on schedule. If we don’t the rebuild is likely dead and our FO will either bolt or be fired