Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[leswizards]

Let’s cut the bull. Simple question: if you were running the Wizards, would you trade Bilal for Podziemski or Cason Wallace right now? Yes or no?

I’ll happily revisit this in 3 years.

Yes

As well, please point to where in the '23 draft conversation you pointed out that you didn't want Bilal & why.
While you're at it, please point to where, in the same thread, you opined as to whom you DID want to take with our '23 pick.

With the above information, we'll be able to assess the significance of your remarks these days. Without that info, you're just another guy who "knows better" after the fact.

Please point out where you have derived this power to dictate to me what I must provide.

Also, please point out to me where I get paid millions of dollars to research these things in advance and have the quality of information available to me that the front office has available to it in order to make an informed decision.

[payitforward]

-- fair enough: I don't want to encourage confrontation. You write a lot of interesting posts; we can disagree w/o conflict.

[doclinkin]

Not me man. The confrontation is the fun. We in this for the competition as well as camaraderie. We’re not talking flower arrangements or stamp collection. But squads of us vs them. Uniform vs uniform. Wizards in short pants against ferocious Raptors or whatever the hell a Knickerbocker is.

On here I’ve learned more from disagreement than I ever did from some kinda circle jerk where everyone agrees.

In this case if you use a dumb stat you get to understand why it’s a stupid way to make your point. Not proving your point is stupid. Find another way to make that point.

No one can argue it’s a good team yet. So the jury is out on the talent they’ve picked. For some of us the signs look good. But only by grading on a curve: young players suck. But they get better further quicker and longer than older players. Studies suggest the earlier they are any good the better they get eventually. Box score stats don’t correct for age and many young players do stay ass their entire careers. It’s all about work ethic and genetics and mindset.

Point2: we have to lose if we want a chance at the best picks. Until next draft anyway. After that we can try to win. So you can’t use a stat that is based on how many wins the team has. Because just one extra win removed a dozen options from this draft. Trade up or down or the guy we like slips to us.

The counter argument is easy: scoreboard. If the players we got were already good we wouldn’t be able to lose.

PIFs point is a fair one: if a guy says these guys suck now and are probably always gonna suck, how good is that dudes opinion? Is there a track record?

We don’t have a track record for Dawkins. He’s new.

Me my track record is good for 2nd rounders and steals. But had to be recalibrated for youth and top lotto picks. I’m still figuring that part out. Dawkins and all have scouting. Videos. X-rays. AI. So maybe they’ve got an edge on me with the box score and eye test and 30-odd years of thinking about basketball. Plus a focus group of a bunch of other over qualified idjits who waste time arguing with me about it.

[doclinkin]

For what it's worth here. I''ll make leswiz' point for him:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2023.html

Sort by value over replacement player or box score plus minus and Bilal still sucks. His superior defense against All-stars does not yet show up in his own stats or in team wins. Defense is hard to tease out. We can make all kind of excuses, but currently the team sucks, so it is fair to wish we were better already. There's a long way to go before we have even one all-star on the team, especially since Offense tends to be what gets players elected for that popularity contest.

Also: Bilal started out the season strong, then regressed in some key stats. Not a great sign for his advancement and improvement. Nice that he was playing in the 4th quarter in the olympics, but if he was any damn good he'd have been on Stef and stifled those hero shots, right?

Hopefully we will get to see him in Eurobasket play first against Belgium and Slovenia. Then the real test will be in August 31 vs Israel. If he shuts down Deni then that will say something about the acumen of Dawkins' talent assessment. That we shipped Avdija to make room for Bilal to shine. Right?

[montestewart]

Not me man. The confrontation is the fun.

Says one the least confrontational people on the board

[payitforward]

...The confrontation is the fun. We in this for the competition as well as camaraderie. We’re not talking flower arrangements or stamp collection. But squads of us vs them. Uniform vs uniform. ...On here I’ve learned more from disagreement than I ever did from some kinda circle jerk where everyone agrees. ...

You're just saying this stuff to flatter me. &, it's true, I'm always glad to help.

OTOH, it seems you have NOT learned...

...whatever the hell a Knickerbocker is

...so, let me help you out, as usual, young whippersnapper: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knickerbockers_(clothing)

[FAH1223]

Will was an intern in Seattle when this Rashard Lewis deal went down

Read on Twitter

I hope he took notes

[Northwest Roddy]

Presti started as a video assistant with the Spurs working under Pop. He learned the lessons of how to succeed as a small market team and brought that to OKC. Our hope is Dawkins brings that same success to DC. The sad part is that we aren’t a small market team! DC should be a major market. The downside of micky mouse ownership twice in a row. That is our Dharma…

[TheBlackCzar]

Presti started as a video assistant with the Spurs working under Pop. He learned the lessons of how to succeed as a small market team and brought that to OKC. Our hope is Dawkins brings that same success to DC. The sad part is that we aren’t a small market team! DC should be a major market. The downside of micky mouse ownership twice in a row. That is our Dharma…

I hope they make us so valuable that he has to sell so we can finally have a real owner....

[Northwest Roddy]

The wish came true with Snyder and the Commanders. Fingers crossed it happens again.

[DCZards]

Ted has turned the running of the Zards, Go-Gos, and Mystics over to Winger & Dawkins…and he’s keeping the Zards and Caps in downtown DC where they belong. I’m alright with Ted at this point.

[payitforward]

Presti started as a video assistant with the Spurs working under Pop. He learned the lessons of how to succeed as a small market team and brought that to OKC. Our hope is Dawkins brings that same success to DC. The sad part is that we aren’t a small market team! DC should be a major market. The downside of micky mouse ownership twice in a row. That is our Dharma…

I hope they make us so valuable that he has to sell so we can finally have a real owner....

I keep trying to explain this; so far no luck.

Ted Leonsis does NOT own the Washington Wizards.

Monumental Sports & Entertainment owns the Wizards. Ted is the largest stockholder in Monumental, of course, & its CEO. But, the company's biz plan is such that it could not hope to succeed w/o owning both the Wiz & the Caps (& the Mystics, for that matter).

For that matter, Monumental could NOT succeed by treating the Wizards in the "mickey mouse" way suggested here. Michael Winger, Will Dawkins & Travis Schlenk are NOT a mickey mouse management team.

[Kanyewest]

I started looking at redraft articles and posts from the 2023 draft

CBS- Bilal taken at #7 (Only player the Wizards missed out on who was taken higher in a redraft was Lively) https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/redrafting-2023-nba-draft-how-lottery-would-look-knowing-what-we-know-now-as-amen-thompson-rises-scoot-slips/



Bilal also taken at #7 https://fansided.com/whiteboard-re-drafting-2023-nba-draft-victor-wembanyama-hof-path- the sporting news one is from 2024 so arguably not as insightful.

EDIT- From 2024
Sporting news - Bilal taken at #10 (Cason Wallace instead of Lively) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/redrafting-2023-nba-draft-victor-wembanyama-jaime-jaquez/15c5a4fb2be6ed47080164c1

[DCZards]

I started looking at redraft articles and posts from the 2023 draft

CBS- Bilal taken at #7 (Only player the Wizards missed out on who was taken higher in a redraft was Lively) https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/redrafting-2023-nba-draft-how-lottery-would-look-knowing-what-we-know-now-as-amen-thompson-rises-scoot-slips/

Sporting news - Bilal taken at #7 (Cason Wallace instead of Lively) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/redrafting-2023-nba-draft-victor-wembanyama-jaime-jaquez/15c5a4fb2be6ed47080164c1

Don’t disagree that Lively and Wallace have both looked awfully good at times….and deserve the improved draft rankings. But some of that has to do with their roles and the situations they are in.

I’m not so sure that Bilal doesn’t have a higher upside than both of them. Time will tell.

(In that second link, Jacquez, Podziemski and Whitmore also get drafted before Bilal, who is at 10.

[Kanyewest]

I started looking at redraft articles and posts from the 2023 draft

CBS- Bilal taken at #7 (Only player the Wizards missed out on who was taken higher in a redraft was Lively) https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/redrafting-2023-nba-draft-how-lottery-would-look-knowing-what-we-know-now-as-amen-thompson-rises-scoot-slips/

Sporting news - Bilal taken at #7 (Cason Wallace instead of Lively) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/redrafting-2023-nba-draft-victor-wembanyama-jaime-jaquez/15c5a4fb2be6ed47080164c1

Don’t disagree that Lively and Wallace have both looked awfully good at times….and deserve the improved draft rankings. But some of that has to do with their roles and the situations they are in.

I’m not so sure that Bilal doesn’t have a higher upside than both of them. Time will tell.

(In that second link, Jacquez, Podziemski and Whitmore also get drafted before Bilal, who is at 10.

Oops, I meant to post this link instead https://fansided.com/whiteboard-re-drafting-2023-nba-draft-victor-wembanyama-hof-path. The 2nd link I ended up posting I wanted to delete because it was from 2024- but I guess that just goes to show that the valuation of these players changes quite a bit in 1 season.

[Benjammin]

Lowered expectations...

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[penbeast0]

[url]

Read on Twitter

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Was just coming here to post exactly that chart. We have the second most positive fan base in the league (even without a positive history or a Wemby)! 3 years ago, who would have believed it? C'mon, try the Kool-aid.

[doclinkin]

Speaking of being positive:

Have to say turning Johnny Davis into Marcus Smart + the 18th pick was nifty work.

I’m looking at the various mocks and am more eager for the possibilities at 18 than the spasm of disappointment I get from picking 6.

Like on the one hand you endure a year of asskickings hoping for relief in the draft only to get one final punt in the nads of probability. So much for tanking.

But then I’m looking at the names of players I want in the mid teens and realize I don’t have to decide which I like most since one of them will surely fall.

I recall in prior years simply being frustrated watching the guy I knew was going to be good slide past our pick since he’d be considered a ‘reach’ at that spot. And agreeing with PIF that we should have traded down.

Now we don’t have to trade down. Because somehow we can sell off our garbage for extra picks. And they thank us for doing it.

Now I look forward to draft day with excitement instead of with commingled hope and dread.

Then You always knew on draft night we were going to stand pat and take whatever try hard guy fell to us. Or a jolly knucklehead who had all the talent in the world but no discipline to develop it. On a team with no plan or structure to shape that talent.

Now. No. They’re not waiting around for someone to set the buffet before them. They’re going off menu. Paying extra if they have something they like. For the fan it makes draft night something to anticipate. Get excited about. No matter what you know they re gonna try hard to make something dynamic happen. Should be fun.

Ok. One bar of service. I go back up the mountain.

[payitforward]

Nice post, doc -- & I feel the same way. It's exciting to be a Wizards fan. It's fun. & when chance doesn't favor us, as in the case of the ping pong balls, instead of that old "so Wizards" feeling, instead I look forward to what Will is going to do to thumb his nose at the gods! Fun!

[TGW]

Nice post, doc -- & I feel the same way. It's exciting to be a Wizards fan. It's fun. & when chance doesn't favor us, as in the case of the ping pong balls, instead of that old "so Wizards" feeling, instead I look forward to what Will is going to do to thumb his nose at the gods! Fun!

It's exciting to be a Wizards fan if you're a masochist. But I don't doubt that you're excited to be a Wizards fan right now, PIF. I think for alot of Wizards fans, they have completely ignored the actual product they see on the court. The actual NBA season is like the offseason. A scouting exercise. A nice distraction until the next draft lottery and free agency. I think for most of you, arguing over tier lists, the value of the 49th pick in the draft, who was right and who was wrong, is WAYYYYYY more exciting than actual wins on the court.

Let's be real...who honestly would enjoy a team who wins as little and as infrequently as the Wizards. They are a god-awful, embarassing franchise. We're here because of the community, because we like to debate shxt, bored, and have too much emtionally tied to this team. Not because this team is marginally interesting, or do anything good. They have a terrible name, a wack logo, they lose consistently, have a unlikeable owner, and they are the butt of jokes around the league.

But yea, the draft is coming up. Something that excites the Wizards and their fans every year. So for a certain group of people....yea, this is exciting.