Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[payitforward]

TGW -- hey, we're rebuilding finally! The franchise is being managed by a completely different bunch of guys, with altogether different philosophies & goals & strategies than ever before.

That's not the same old same old.

Now, if it's a total failure. No results, etc.... why then, sure, we'll feel the disappointment! But, I see no reason to go there prematurely or to imagine failure -- not even as a protective measure against disappointment.

In short, I'm engaged & excied, & I like what they've done so far.

[tontoz]

Nice post, doc -- & I feel the same way. It's exciting to be a Wizards fan. It's fun. & when chance doesn't favor us, as in the case of the ping pong balls, instead of that old "so Wizards" feeling, instead I look forward to what Will is going to do to thumb his nose at the gods! Fun!

It's exciting to be a Wizards fan if you're a masochist. But I don't doubt that you're excited to be a Wizards fan right now, PIF. I think for alot of Wizards fans, they have completely ignored the actual product they see on the court. The actual NBA season is like the offseason. A scouting exercise. A nice distraction until the next draft lottery and free agency. I think for most of you, arguing over tier lists, the value of the 49th pick in the draft, who was right and who was wrong, is WAYYYYYY more exciting than actual wins on the court.

Let's be real...who honestly would enjoy a team who wins as little and as infrequently as the Wizards. They are a god-awful, embarassing franchise. We're here because of the community, because we like to debate shxt, bored, and have too much emtionally tied to this team. Not because this team is marginally interesting, or do anything good. They have a terrible name, a wack logo, they lose consistently, have a unlikeable owner, and they are the butt of jokes around the league.

But yea, the draft is coming up. Something that excites the Wizards and their fans every year. So for a certain group of people....yea, this is exciting.

You forgot one thing. We are no longer on the treadmill to nowhere, all in for the play in. We are no longer making short term win now moves hoping to get to .500.

[montestewart]

Nice post, doc -- & I feel the same way. It's exciting to be a Wizards fan. It's fun. & when chance doesn't favor us, as in the case of the ping pong balls, instead of that old "so Wizards" feeling, instead I look forward to what Will is going to do to thumb his nose at the gods! Fun!

It's exciting to be a Wizards fan if you're a masochist. But I don't doubt that you're excited to be a Wizards fan right now, PIF. I think for alot of Wizards fans, they have completely ignored the actual product they see on the court. The actual NBA season is like the offseason. A scouting exercise. A nice distraction until the next draft lottery and free agency. I think for most of you, arguing over tier lists, the value of the 49th pick in the draft, who was right and who was wrong, is WAYYYYYY more exciting than actual wins on the court.

Let's be real...who honestly would enjoy a team who wins as little and as infrequently as the Wizards. They are a god-awful, embarassing franchise. We're here because of the community, because we like to debate shxt, bored, and have too much emtionally tied to this team. Not because this team is marginally interesting, or do anything good. They have a terrible name, a wack logo, they lose consistently, have a unlikeable owner, and they are the butt of jokes around the league.

But yea, the draft is coming up. Something that excites the Wizards and their fans every year. So for a certain group of people....yea, this is exciting.

Ya Gotta Believe

[FAH1223]

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[Frichuela]

Getting rid of Beal was the first coup of Dawkins & co...

Read on Twitter

[leswizards]

Someone posted that this front office is big on defense oriented statistics, and I don’t doubt it. I just wonder if this front office may be logically misunderstanding the importance of the statistics.

I am not stating this as a fact, just wondering if maybe good defense only really matters once you have established your team as a respectable offensive team. Last year, 13 of the 15 best defensive teams were also 13 of the 15 best offensive teams in the nba. The exceptions were the Orlando magic who were one of the best defensive teams in the nba, but were one of the worst offensive teams in the nba. They finished the season 41-41. Another exception were the Miami heat who were a very good defensive team, but an only slightly below average offensive team. They finished 37-45. Another were the Denver nuggets who were great offensively and slightly below average defensively, and finished 50-32. The final exception were the Phoenix Suns who were above average offensively and one of the worst defensive teams, and finished 36-46.

[DCZards]

Being able to utilize 4 long, exceptional defenders like Sarr, George, Bilal, and Watkins is gonna be sweet. I’m sure it’s a core piece of the rebuild that Winger envisions.

[closg00]

Being able to utilize 4 long, exceptional defenders like Sarr, George, Bilal, and Watkins is gonna be sweet. I’m sure it’s a core piece of the rebuild that Winger envisions.

Besides Tre, who do you envision carrying the offensive?

[Frichuela]

Being able to utilize 4 long, exceptional defenders like Sarr, George, Bilal, and Watkins is gonna be sweet. I’m sure it’s a core piece of the rebuild that Winger envisions.

Besides Tre, who do you envision carrying the offensive?

Well. IMO, we need a PG that can break the defense and get to the rim with ease. And Bub is not that (at least not yet). Maybe the basketball Gods shine on us and gift us Peterson in the next draft…

[DCZards]

Being able to utilize 4 long, exceptional defenders like Sarr, George, Bilal, and Watkins is gonna be sweet. I’m sure it’s a core piece of the rebuild that Winger envisions.

Besides Tre, who do you envision carrying the offensive?

Whitmore…will need more scoring but Tre & Whitmore will be a good start as George, Bilal, and Riley continue to develop their offensive games.

Of course, you’d hope to get another scorer in the 2026 draft.

Edit to add: Neglected to note that McCollum and Middleton are proven scorers.

[closg00]

Being able to utilize 4 long, exceptional defenders like Sarr, George, Bilal, and Watkins is gonna be sweet. I’m sure it’s a core piece of the rebuild that Winger envisions.

Besides Tre, who do you envision carrying the offensive?

Well. IMO, we need a PG that can break the defense and get to the rim with ease. And Bub is not that (at least not yet). Maybe the basketball Gods shine on us and gift us Peterson in the next draft…

100% agreement, Bub at PG is not working, and I don’t believe it will ever work, in SL he was still living around the perimeter, which is his comfort zone.

[nate33]

Besides Tre, who do you envision carrying the offensive?

Well. IMO, we need a PG that can break the defense and get to the rim with ease. And Bub is not that (at least not yet). Maybe the basketball Gods shine on us and gift us Peterson in the next draft…

100% agreement, Bub at PG is not working, and I don’t believe it will ever work, in SL he was still living around the perimeter, which is his comfort zone.

Bub doesn't look like he will be the driver of an offense like an De'Aaron Fox or Trae Young, but I don't think that proves that he is "not working".

There are two types of point guard's in today's game. There are the primary option shot creators like Trae, Fox, Lillard and Brunson who carry an offense but are often a liability on defense. And there are the game manager ball-handlers like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Austin Reaves, Josh Hart, Mike Conley and Fred VanVleet who get guys into their sets, lead the team in assists, space the floor, and play good D, but aren't really the primary defense benders. I think Bub can be that kind of player for us.

We still need a primary defense-bender, but it doesn't necessarily have to be a PG. Indeed, the most successful teams have a defense-bender who is a big wing like Luka, Cade, Giannis, Lebron, Tatum, Harden, etc. If we get a guy like that, Bub could still be a starting PG. If we manage to land an awesome defense-bending PG, then Bub could also slide over to 3rd guard.

Bub turned 20 yesterday, by the way. He is one week older than Edgecombe and Knueppel. I don't think we should be writing him off just yet.

[payitforward]

Bub turned 20 yesterday, by the way. He is one week older than Edgecombe and Knueppel. I don't think we should be writing him off just yet.

Happy birthday, Bub, & may your growth plates stay open.

[closg00]

Well. IMO, we need a PG that can break the defense and get to the rim with ease. And Bub is not that (at least not yet). Maybe the basketball Gods shine on us and gift us Peterson in the next draft…

100% agreement, Bub at PG is not working, and I don’t believe it will ever work, in SL he was still living around the perimeter, which is his comfort zone.

Bub doesn't look like he will be the driver of an offense like an De'Aaron Fox or Trae Young, but I don't think that proves that he is "not working".

There are two types of point guard's in today's game. There are the primary option shot creators like Trae, Fox, Lillard and Brunson who carry an offense but are often a liability on defense. And there are the game manager ball-handlers like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Austin Reaves, Josh Hart, Mike Conley and Fred VanVleet who get guys into their sets, lead the team in assists, space the floor, and play good D, but aren't really the primary defense benders. I think Bub can be that kind of player for us.

We still need a primary defense-bender, but it doesn't necessarily have to be a PG. Indeed, the most successful teams have a defense-bender who is a big wing like Luka, Cade, Giannis, Lebron, Tatum, Harden, etc. If we get a guy like that, Bub could still be a starting PG. If we manage to land an awesome defense-bending PG, then Bub could also slide over to 3rd guard.

Bub turned 20 yesterday, by the way. He is one week older than Edgecombe and Knueppel. I don't think we should be writing him off just yet.

No writing-off, he just needs to be one of shooting guards IMO.

[doclinkin]

Bub turned 20 yesterday, by the way. He is one week older than Edgecombe and Knueppel. I don't think we should be writing him off just yet.

Happy birthday, Bub, & may your growth plates stay open.

Ha! If so he’d end up Muresan sized.

[DCZards]

Bub doesn't look like he will be the driver of an offense like an De'Aaron Fox or Trae Young, but I don't think that proves that he is "not working".

There are two types of point guard's in today's game. There are the primary option shot creators like Trae, Fox, Lillard and Brunson who carry an offense but are often a liability on defense. And there are the game manager ball-handlers like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Austin Reaves, Josh Hart, Mike Conley and Fred VanVleet who get guys into their sets, lead the team in assists, space the floor, and play good D, but aren't really the primary defense benders. I think Bub can be that kind of player for us.

Jrue Holiday is the player I most often think about when I watch Bub. He doesn’t have Jrue’s defensive chops, but Bub has a similar presence and poise on the offensive end.

Until he’s possibly replaced by someone better, I see Bub as this team’s high IQ, low-turnover, midrange shooting, leader and floor general.
I’m confident that Bub can be the passing/assist PG that the team needs (he had 16 games last season with 7 or more assists). I’m less sure of him becoming the penetrating, score-at-the-rim guard that we’d all like to see him become.

[doclinkin]

Being able to utilize 4 long, exceptional defenders like Sarr, George, Bilal, and Watkins is gonna be sweet. I’m sure it’s a core piece of the rebuild that Winger envisions.

Besides Tre, who do you envision carrying the offensive?

Long term:
2026 draft pick.
Tre

I like Whitmore off the bench as a scoring punch but agree with the assessment that his limited game could stunt his role. Defense will determine how much he plays. I don’t think he’ll ever be a connective passer, but could prove a sturdy defender with better effort.

I think Will Riley is a dark horse candidate for added scoring punch. He can create off the dribble. Hit from range. Yes he needs to get stronger, but so does the whole team (barring Whitmore, Watkins, JC).

We have zero interior finishers other than flashes by Bilal or AJJ. JC against back ups. We will need a big who can play with Sarr and in relief of him. Especially banging against the giants. But that’s a future issue. Bagleys fine for now.

But yeah. Unless Bilal grows up fast our scoring comes from Tre and the vets who are on their way out the door. Whitmore if he defends well enough to take minutes from KG Bilal. If not then he only displaces Kispert in the rotation.

[nate33]

It's a shame we didn't hire Dawkins and Winger the year before so we had them around to make our pick in the 2022 draft. They likely would have taken Jalen Williams in place of Johnny Davis. Think of how that would have changed things.

In 2022-23, we would win 5 or 6 extra games and probably pick around 12th instead of 8th. Bilal would be gone so the likely pick at the time would have been Derrick Lively. I still think they blow it all up in the offseason and trade away Beal and Porzingis, let's assume it's for the same deals. In fact, I would expect us to make most of the same cap room for SRP transactions we made throughout the last 2 years with one notable exception (see below).

In 2023-24, we would probably be quite a bit better with JDub in his second season, a 10-12 seed in the East. We would surely look to move Kuzma for the same reasons we did on our real timeline.

In Summer 24, we almost surely would NOT have traded Deni because we would already be on the upswing as an organization with an impressive young frontcourt of JDub, Deni and Lively. However, instead of picking Sarr at #2, we're probably picking around #10-12. I figure we'd still take Bub (but with our pick, not the Portland pick). We still take Kyshawn at #26.

This past year, we would have probably been a play-in team, if not better. So, no Tre Johnson. But with our #14-16 pick, maybe we take Sorber at C and then with the #18 pick, we take Jase Richardson to bolster our guard depth. Our lineup this year would be:

PG Bub/Jase Richardson
SG McCollum/Kispert
SF JDub/Middleton
PF Deni/Kyshawn
C Lively/Sorber

And we would still be set up for max cap room next summer.

I'm not sure if this is a contender because I'm not sure if JDub has the chops to be a top 10ish player, but this is a very good team that should win 50 games for a while once everyone hits their prime. They have a pair of two-way forwards that rival Boston's and Orlando's, a potentially elite rim-protecting big, and some solid guards. Maybe a guy like Luka would consider signing here as a free agent. Or maybe we have to settle for someone like Austin Reaves.

[payitforward]

Not bad, nate...

Spoiler:

...esp. managing to keep Deni and still pick Bub ...

[AFM]

Yeah except if Tommy hadn't taken Davis, he probably wouldn't have been fired. My view of it, anyway.

Sort of how like you can't go back in time, because then you wouldn't have been born. Simple quantum mechanics, bro. #Genius