Alex Sarr

[pcbothwel]

Overall, Alex Sarr had a truly awful rookie season. His numbers were just plain putrid.

Now, the standard of comparison, obviously, is the average production of an NBA center. Whereas Alex came in as a 19 yr old kid -- tho, in fairness, he'd already been a pro baller for a while.

No one would close the door on Alex, obviously, but I'd say it would be fair to compare his rookie numbers w/ those of '23-4 rookie Derrick Lively, who also came in as a 19-year-old. Unfortunately, that only makes things look worse: Lively had an outstanding rookie campaign!

Here's hoping Alex takes a big jump this year.

One caveot. The comparison is not average production of "an NBA Center". Archetype matters.
Lead ball handler/scorer/ "engine" types, along with diversely skilled bigs always take longer to produce, but the juice is worth the squeeze if you hit.
Broad skill sets take longer to master/refine than guys who only do few things. I.e rim runner/ 3 & D wing.
Harden, Sabonis, Banchero, Cade, Giddey, Anthony Edwards, Deni, Giannis, etc. all take more time/patience than the Lively, Gafford, Thompson Twins, Cam Johnson, OG, etc.

Maluach, Carter Bryant, Coward, and Beringer are going to look better early on than Fears, Demin, Essengue, Queen, Wolf, etc.
We'll see in 5 years how it turns out, but guys with a narrow role & skill set can be more productive early on.

[DCZards]

Overall, Alex Sarr had a truly awful rookie season. His numbers were just plain putrid.

Now, the standard of comparison, obviously, is the average production of an NBA center. Whereas Alex came in as a 19 yr old kid -- tho, in fairness, he'd already been a pro baller for a while.

No one would close the door on Alex, obviously, but I'd say it would be fair to compare his rookie numbers w/ those of '23-4 rookie Derrick Lively, who also came in as a 19-year-old. Unfortunately, that only makes things look worse: Lively had an outstanding rookie campaign!

Here's hoping Alex takes a big jump this year.

One caveot. The comparison is not average production of "an NBA Center". Archetype matters.
Lead ball handler/scorer/ "engine" types, along with diversely skilled bigs always take longer to produce, but the juice is worth the squeeze if you hit.
Broad skill sets take longer to master/refine than guys who only do few things. I.e rim runner/ 3 & D wing.
Harden, Sabonis, Banchero, Cade, Giddey, Anthony Edwards, Deni, Giannis, etc. all take more time/patience than the Lively, Gafford, Thompson Twins, Cam Johnson, OG, etc.

Maluach, Carter Bryant, Coward, and Beringer are going to look better early on than Fears, Demin, Essengue, Queen, Wolf, etc.
We'll see in 5 years how it turns out, but guys with a narrow role & skill set can be more productive early on.

Agree. Not really fair to compare Sarr and Lively when they have very different skill sets and have very different roles on their respective teams.

[payitforward]

The last thing I would want to do is to paint Alex Sarr into a corner. But, of course we can compare two rookie bigs to see what their numbers tell us.

Whatever Alex's role was or will be down the line, posting a 48.2% Total Scoring percentage sucks. There's no describing that fact out of existence.

I like Sarr, & I still think he was the right pick for us at #2 in 2024. All the same, he needs to get MUCH better to have any chance at a productive NBA career. Lets hope that improvement starts this season!

[nuposse04]

The last thing I would want to do is to paint Alex Sarr into a corner. But, of course we can compare two rookie bigs to see what their numbers tell us.

Whatever Alex's role was or will be down the line, posting a 48.2% Total Scoring percentage sucks. There's no describing that fact out of existence.

I like Sarr, & I still think he was the right pick for us at #2 in 2024. All the same, he needs to get MUCH better to have any chance at a productive NBA career. Lets hope that improvement starts this season!

Luckily it would be hard to be much worse than he was last year (Statistically anyways). I think he will improve, I just wonder how high the ceiling could potentially be.

His at the time rim shooting and def rebounding rate is the most concerning part to me (I wonder if the latter suffers because of how much time he spends on the perimeter on defense).

[AFM]

What were his numbers for the second half of the season. He started off like ass

[nate33]

What were his numbers for the second half of the season. He started off like ass

I didn't see any major statistical improvement late in the season relative to early in the season.

He was indeed really bad over the first handful of games, but he had a hot streak from 3-point range in December that offset his poor start. The rest of the season was pretty consistent, with him posting a TS% in the high 40's throughout (which is terrible).

The only late trend I noticed was that his USG% increased pretty dramatically over the last 3 months, going from 21-ish up to 28-ish.

A 28% USG for a center is crazy high. The optimistic take is that most centers don't even have the skills to get off that many looks. The pessimistic take is that carrying such a high USG with such a low TS% is really bad for your team's offense.

I think Kevin Broom once posted an article suggesting that high usage for very young players is often predictive of future success, regardless of whether they were efficient or not. It's probably why he recently talked about both Sarr and Bilal having an All-Star ceiling.

[payitforward]

Super-interesting, nate -- if u have a handy link to Kevin's piece...

wait, here's the one on Bilal, which contains a link to the Sarr piece -- https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/5/6/24424629/annual-checkup-does-coulibaly-join-sarr-in-the-potential-building-block-group

[nate33]

Super-interesting, nate -- if u have a handy link to Kevin's piece...

wait, here's the one on Bilal, which contains a link to the Sarr piece -- https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/5/6/24424629/annual-checkup-does-coulibaly-join-sarr-in-the-potential-building-block-group

He talks more about it here:
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/28/24419023/annual-checkup-have-the-wizards-found-a-building-block-in-alex-sarr

I’m not saying efficiency for a teenager doesn’t matter — it does. What seems to matter more is usage. In my reading of the available data, it appears that a kid attempting to make plays is a more important predictor of future success than succeeding.

Now, this is hardly linear. The top 10 in teenage rookies usage includes guys like Luka Doncic, Zion Williamson, Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, and LaMelo Ball. It also includes Cam Whitmore and Scoot Henderson. Landing 11th: Emmanuel Mudiay.

Among this group, Sarr ranks 25th in usage — about the same level as players like RJ Barrett, Devin Booker, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Andrew Wiggins, and higher than names like Josh Giddey, Bradley Beal, Alperen Sengun, Zach LaVine, Jamal Murray, Jayson Tatum, Tracy McGrady, Jrue Holiday, Chris Bosh, Tony Parker, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, and Giannis.

In other words, when looking at teenage rookies, Sarr was relatively high in “trying to make plays on offense” and relatively low in “succeeding at making plays on offense”. Again, my reading of the data suggests trying is more important at this early stage in a player’s career.

[DCZards]

I’m not saying efficiency for a teenager doesn’t matter — it does. What seems to matter more is usage. In my reading of the available data, it appears that a kid attempting to make plays is a more important predictor of future success than succeeding.

In other words, when looking at teenage rookies, Sarr was relatively high in “trying to make plays on offense” and relatively low in “succeeding at making plays on offense”. Again, my reading of the data suggests trying is more important at this early stage in a player’s career.

This is an interesting take on the part of Kevin. It’s also one that makes a lot of sense…at least to me.

Despite Sarr’s struggles on the offensive end last season, I was encouraged by his ability to get his shot in a variety of ways.

I’m of the opinion that with experience, practice, and physical growth he’ll make more of those shots.

[AFM]

It may not have shown up as part of a larger trend, but I felt like Sarr definitely had his best games later in the season as he got more comfortable. IIRC he had a 34 point outing plus more I’m probably forgetting (will leave the actual stats to the nerds on this board)

[TheBlackCzar]

Here are several initial projections for Sarr predraft....
Keep this in mind when we're discussing Sarr further.....

https://fansided.com/posts/2024-nba-draft-scouting-report-alex-sarr

https://www.nba.com/draft/2024/prospects/alexandre-sarr

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/alexandre-sarr/


Sarr was mainly spoke of as a very high potential defender, with an extremely raw offensive game.....

What he showed was he could shoot much better than advertised in most of his scouting reports,
he struggled with the increased physicality of the NBA which was projected to occur, as he weighed
as little as 198lbs 24 months ago...

They discussed his handles as a minor add on which turned out to be incorrect as he had pretty good
handles for a big when he was in the open court, and made good passes and decisions more often than not......

So the fact that he displayed he can shoot 40% from 3's in the NBA is a potentially major key skill for him....

He was projected as a rim running big, but because we don't have the PG play at the moment he hasn't flashed that much...

He is showing an improved dribble drive game albeit small sample size with summer league.....

Alex was never going to be a right out of the box player, and at least to me his development curve seems about right....
He was a traits pick more than a productivity pick, so with those kinds of guys you have to realize they aren't the sum
of themselves until they are in there mid 20's especially regarding big men....

This is mainly due to there need to get bigger and stronger to play with grown men in the league.....

[doclinkin]

France NT practices for Eurobasket starts tomorrow. Most of their Olympic stars are missing. Huge opportunity for Sarr and Coulibaly to step into the gap and cement their spot on future teams. Especially for Sarr with Wemby out. The squad looks overmatched compared to teams like Germany but still it’s a chance to earn valuable experience on the international stage.

[payitforward]

No doubt, and if he keeps improving all will be well!

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

[GoneShammGone]

Watch on YouTube

He missed this one:

Watch on YouTube

!!!!

[The Consiglieri]

The last thing I would want to do is to paint Alex Sarr into a corner. But, of course we can compare two rookie bigs to see what their numbers tell us.

Whatever Alex's role was or will be down the line, posting a 48.2% Total Scoring percentage sucks. There's no describing that fact out of existence.

I like Sarr, & I still think he was the right pick for us at #2 in 2024. All the same, he needs to get MUCH better to have any chance at a productive NBA career. Lets hope that improvement starts this season!

You have to look at what tools he came in with and what weaknesses. He was not an inside players, and he had crap hands. He did several things well, including elite transition skills, passing and vision, some elementns of his defense.. His hands, inside game, and physicality were crap, and he was horrible shooting inside, mostly because he has crap hands and it's not his game to this point. So to me, looking at metrics which focus on nearly all the areas where he's a liability and weaker player, makes him look far worse than he is. There is a reason that before his injury, he was top of the charts, or nearly so among rookies, into January. There's a reason he made the All NBA Rookie team. He is not a bust, and he wasn't putrid in the way a say, Johnny Davis, or our newly acquired Dylan Jones kids busted. He was very good with transition, passing, vision, I forgot to mention his 3 ball after Thanksgiving, and some area's of defense. He was utterly worthless inside on offensive, no presence at all in the paint.

You've got look at the traits and skills, and not just basic #'s, I can't believe I'm saying this, lol, because I'm an analytics always over tape grinding guy, but Sarr is an example fo where that falls short because Sarr's Spider Map, I imagine, would be unbelievably weird and lopsided. He's got real genuine strengths, and real ghastly weaknesses. If he improves on his strengths, and addresses his weaknesses, he could legit become great. A bad rookie like Johnny Davis or Dylan Jones or Arvis Hayes? No outs whatsoever, they just suck, period. Sarr has actual skills that are of high utility, it's just where he's bad, for now, anyway, he's unbelievably bad.

[The Consiglieri]

It may not have shown up as part of a larger trend, but I felt like Sarr definitely had his best games later in the season as he got more comfortable. IIRC he had a 34 point outing plus more I’m probably forgetting (will leave the actual stats to the nerds on this board)

He was absolutely horrific shooting, especially from 3, until thanksgiving, he then had a great run until he got hurt, I think near mid or late January, I can't remember the rest, but my memory is that he was a much better player after a truly god awful first month, but in fairness, his weaknesses, stayed weaknesses, he just improved in area's he was already decent or better.

[The Consiglieri]

Let me add something I said during the season, and am still baffled by. I'm totally confused by his handle, especially in transitions, which appears excellent, and then you turn around, and he can't catch ---- in the pain, and in general has terrible hands near the basket. I guess the skills are different, but for me anyway, good hands always translated across sports and skill sets. Not for him, in the same sport, which is just really odd to me anyway.

[popper]

When I watch Sarr on the offensive end I see a player that, when dribbling in to a contested down low position (which is relatively often), doesn't have a high probability plan to finish (he often turns it over there). He desperately needs coaching to give him confidence in that situation. If I were his coach, until he gains sufficient strength, I'd advise to pull up at 6 or 8 feet and rise for a simple push or jump shot.