I don't buy the "I play better when I start" rap. What I do buy is players playing better when their roles are defined and they know how to prepare/what is expected of them. And that is going to be EJ's challenge. Because if he goes by feel every game and doesn't have some sort of coherent rotation, they whole product will suffer.
The reason guys' numbers are likely better as starters is because they're playing with better players.
It would seem to me that with a healthy starting 5, the only sure things are that AD and Blatche should be the first two guys off the bench. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess. The rooks are running out of time to earn rotation spots come the stretch run.
GT: Wiz @ Clips, 2/13/08, 10:30 PM EST
Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart
-
doclinkin
- RealGM
- Posts: 13,425
- And1: 5,531
- Joined: Jul 26, 2004
- Location: .wizuds.
Daniels numbers have to be jettisoned. If you isolated the stats for any of the Wiz' players over the first 8 games you'd conclude they had no business in an NBA game (except Haywood if I recall correct-like).
As for Mason and Blatche. Mase had a streak early on where he was streaky but scoring, but I expect some part of what you're seeing is the benefit of playing next to Jamison. It's a spacing issue inherent in the offensive sets. Starters will play more minutes with Jamison, and his skillset is critical to what the Wiz do best when the offense is running well. To the extent that when he's not in, we don't really have the same toolkit and options.
With Butler out of the game we have only the one reliable scorer. And only the one forward who can shoot from outside. Offensively this is critical, so many of our sets are predicated on thinning the defense to allow space to create offense. We don't have a reliable and dominant low-post scoring option (some part of Haywood's efficiency and success with the ball is that we get it to him when he has a chance to do something with it).
With Jamison out, the team goes flat offensively, even when Blatche and Haywood turn off the spigot in the defensive frontcourt. In either 'chin' or 'forwards out' Jamison's presence draws opposing Bigs away from the paint. The defense has to guard him whether he's in motion or behind the three line, and the Pivot is at the FT line. And because of his low-post skill they usually have to shift a bigger player to mark him.
When playing forward this leaves Blatche on the weakside being ignored as an inconsistent shooter while the opposing bigs cheat off him to shade toward Jamison. But given room and a slower opponent Blatche has all the tools to free himself to either drive around the lunk, or make the right pass. In traffic he has more trouble, though he's developing.
And as far as 'Junior' is concerned, well the motion sets are designed to spring the guards and outside shooters free. And they run best with the skilled veteran wings/guards in the game. DeShawn ran the system in Orlando. Jamison has been here. Antonio could coach it.
(Though I think Brendan Haywood is the Wiz player most likely to coach at some point. But only if the money is right. Antonio might coach at a college level as a favor to somebody, but he's said he wants to work with kids when he's done not get too involved in basketball).
BUt coming off the bench your best shooting Big is Darius Songaila... You can't run the same motion sets with DS9 that you can with Jamison. They run more options out of the highpost 5 with Darius trying to draw the Bigs away from the basket and free room underneath, since Darius at 4 doesn't work as well in motion: he can't dribble all that well and isn't fast. And underneath is by no means an unstoppable low-post force.
Yes there are more options in the offense with a shooting/passing Big, but right now we don't have the toolkit to make it work. So. And with less floor time, less repetition, and more rooks and inexperienced players, you get fewer minutes to groove the sets and make them work like ESP.
You can see what they're trying to do. But it's not there yet. Would take time. And personnel. And repetitions. And experience. Right now it becomes Darius trying to do too much and Nick Young making whatever he can out of broken plays. And everyone else out of rhythm. So.
Yeah. Jamison. Even though he doesn't pass much and will shoot whenever he hes the ball, the off-ball aspect of the offense is better when he's on the court. That's been true ever since we got him here, and only falters when he's in a prolonged shooting funk or when the refs allow the opponents to body him and bully him.
But when we get Arenas back. (The dribble-drive arenas, with his outside shot intact as well). Yeah everything begins to tilt back the right way.
I used to have a good link for a Princeton offense series, breakdowns and animations. There's a couple out there, but not as good. But look up the 'chin' series and you'll start to recognize a few Wiz patterns.
As for Mason and Blatche. Mase had a streak early on where he was streaky but scoring, but I expect some part of what you're seeing is the benefit of playing next to Jamison. It's a spacing issue inherent in the offensive sets. Starters will play more minutes with Jamison, and his skillset is critical to what the Wiz do best when the offense is running well. To the extent that when he's not in, we don't really have the same toolkit and options.
With Butler out of the game we have only the one reliable scorer. And only the one forward who can shoot from outside. Offensively this is critical, so many of our sets are predicated on thinning the defense to allow space to create offense. We don't have a reliable and dominant low-post scoring option (some part of Haywood's efficiency and success with the ball is that we get it to him when he has a chance to do something with it).
With Jamison out, the team goes flat offensively, even when Blatche and Haywood turn off the spigot in the defensive frontcourt. In either 'chin' or 'forwards out' Jamison's presence draws opposing Bigs away from the paint. The defense has to guard him whether he's in motion or behind the three line, and the Pivot is at the FT line. And because of his low-post skill they usually have to shift a bigger player to mark him.
When playing forward this leaves Blatche on the weakside being ignored as an inconsistent shooter while the opposing bigs cheat off him to shade toward Jamison. But given room and a slower opponent Blatche has all the tools to free himself to either drive around the lunk, or make the right pass. In traffic he has more trouble, though he's developing.
And as far as 'Junior' is concerned, well the motion sets are designed to spring the guards and outside shooters free. And they run best with the skilled veteran wings/guards in the game. DeShawn ran the system in Orlando. Jamison has been here. Antonio could coach it.
(Though I think Brendan Haywood is the Wiz player most likely to coach at some point. But only if the money is right. Antonio might coach at a college level as a favor to somebody, but he's said he wants to work with kids when he's done not get too involved in basketball).
BUt coming off the bench your best shooting Big is Darius Songaila... You can't run the same motion sets with DS9 that you can with Jamison. They run more options out of the highpost 5 with Darius trying to draw the Bigs away from the basket and free room underneath, since Darius at 4 doesn't work as well in motion: he can't dribble all that well and isn't fast. And underneath is by no means an unstoppable low-post force.
Yes there are more options in the offense with a shooting/passing Big, but right now we don't have the toolkit to make it work. So. And with less floor time, less repetition, and more rooks and inexperienced players, you get fewer minutes to groove the sets and make them work like ESP.
You can see what they're trying to do. But it's not there yet. Would take time. And personnel. And repetitions. And experience. Right now it becomes Darius trying to do too much and Nick Young making whatever he can out of broken plays. And everyone else out of rhythm. So.
Yeah. Jamison. Even though he doesn't pass much and will shoot whenever he hes the ball, the off-ball aspect of the offense is better when he's on the court. That's been true ever since we got him here, and only falters when he's in a prolonged shooting funk or when the refs allow the opponents to body him and bully him.
But when we get Arenas back. (The dribble-drive arenas, with his outside shot intact as well). Yeah everything begins to tilt back the right way.
I used to have a good link for a Princeton offense series, breakdowns and animations. There's a couple out there, but not as good. But look up the 'chin' series and you'll start to recognize a few Wiz patterns.
-
ZonkertheBrainless
- Analyst
- Posts: 3,575
- And1: 0
- Joined: May 04, 2005
- Location: Silver Spring, MD
fishercob wrote:I don't buy the "I play better when I start" rap. What I do buy is players playing better when their roles are defined and they know how to prepare/what is expected of them. And that is going to be EJ's challenge. Because if he goes by feel every game and doesn't have some sort of coherent rotation, they whole product will suffer.
The reason guys' numbers are likely better as starters is because they're playing with better players.
It would seem to me that with a healthy starting 5, the only sure things are that AD and Blatche should be the first two guys off the bench. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess. The rooks are running out of time to earn rotation spots come the stretch run.
Hm. What does that mean? You mean Blatche is sitting around watching film of his upcoming opponents and can do it better if he starts? I have trouble visualizing that. Maybe the thought that he is starting just gets him pumped up emotionally, making him more likely to make a good play the first time he gets the ball, making him more likely to perform well the whole game.
I think now he's gotten that good feeling under his belt after starting he will do well when he goes back to the bench. Just have to get used to that jacked up feeling.
Damn I'm unhappy Blatche didn't go to the big man's camp this summer. Work on your footwork young man! He's also got to learn how to power to the basket without running people over. His success rate on that is like 20%.
Help us, Obi-wan Leonsis. You're our only hope.
-
Donkey McDonkerton
- General Manager
- Posts: 9,189
- And1: 411
- Joined: Jul 01, 2004
- Location: Donkieville
-
-
nate33
- Forum Mod - Wizards
- Posts: 67,654
- And1: 19,964
- Joined: Oct 28, 2002
SevernHoos' numbers are eye opening, but I think Doc successfully explained much of the difference. Jamison dramatically helps the offense. I think the other big issue is that the bench doesn't have a point guard.
Finally, Roger Mason's huge difference might disappear entirely if you ignore his one Golden State game. That was probably just a fluke.
I'm on the road right now so I don't have my spreadsheets with me. But when I get a chance, I'll look at the player pairs data to try to shed some more light on the subject. If we see that Mason's, Daniels' and Blatche's numbers are dramatically worse when they're not playing alongside Jamison, we'll know Doc's theory is correct.
Finally, Roger Mason's huge difference might disappear entirely if you ignore his one Golden State game. That was probably just a fluke.
I'm on the road right now so I don't have my spreadsheets with me. But when I get a chance, I'll look at the player pairs data to try to shed some more light on the subject. If we see that Mason's, Daniels' and Blatche's numbers are dramatically worse when they're not playing alongside Jamison, we'll know Doc's theory is correct.