Was the Wiz defense better this year?

[penbeast0]

Read a mainstream media account about the 2007-08 Washington Wizards , and you'd think they were a significantly improved defensive team. After all, as Mike Jones from the Washington Times points out, the Wizards allowed a league-high 104.9 points per game last season, and this year they allowed 12th fewest (99.2 ppg).

So, umm, wow -- Wiz actually played some D this year, right? Well, if you've read much of what I've written through the years, you can probably guess my answer -- not so much.

Not to pick on Jones excessively, but his blog entry highlights the uselessness of per game statistics. The Wizards' "improvement" in points allowed per game is almost entirely a function of pace. In 06-07, they were the league's fifth fastest-paced team; in 07-08, they were the fourth slowest.

Let's break it down a little. In 06-07, the Wizards were 28th in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). This season, they did actually improve just a bit -- to 24th. But let's put this in terms the mainstream media would understand.

In 06-07, the Wiz ran at 94.1 possessions per 48 minutes; this season, at 89.5. In 06-07, they allowed 104.9 points per game; this season, 99.2.

What happens if this season's Wizards played at the same pace as last season's? Their points allowed per game would rise from 99.2 to 104.3. In other words, this "improved" defense that Jones and mainstream media are celebrating is in reality an "improvement" of just 0.6 points per game.

As I've pointed out gazillion times, NBA defense is primarily about making the other team miss shots. In 06-07, opponents had an effective field goal percentage (eFG is far preferable to FG% because it accounts for the effect of the 3pt shot) of .517. This season, the Wiz allowed opponents an efg of .513 -- an improvement of .004. That's an additional .28 misses per game -- about one additional opponent miss every four games. Lemme pause so my heart can stop racing.

The Wiz did a bit better on the boards (defensive rebounding percentage of 72.8% this season vs. 71% last year), but they forced fewer turnovers (defensive turnover rate of 15.5% this season vs. 16.6% the previous year), and they sent opponents to the FT line more frequently.

So taking the season as a whole, the improvement was extremely small. They were significantly better through the first half of the season. Unfortunately, they couldn't maintain that improvement.

If they want to get actually improve their defense, they're going to have to find a way to reduce opponent shooting percentages. That will mean defending the three point line. This season, the Wizards allowed 683 three point field goals -- the most allowed by a team in league history.

So let's stop with the nonsense that the Wizards were better defensively last season. They weren't -- at least not in any meaningful way.

Kevin Broom is a columnist who has written for a variety of websites, including RealGM.com. Want to be notified when he writes again? Go to his blog at http://kevinbroom.wordpress.com and sign up for the RSS feed.

[miller31time]

Agreed, wholeheartedly.

You'd think that the media would have grasped the concept of pace and it's effect on games and statistics already, but they haven't.

I don't know if it has to do with them just not wanting to change, or not wanting to complicate the issue for the average Joe NBAfan, but whatever it is, they aren't budging.

[TheOUTLAW]

Great article. The writer shows a great deal of basketball knowledge as well as an ability to grasp statistics.

[crackhed]

If they want to get actually improve their defense, they're going to have to find a way to reduce opponent shooting percentages. That will mean defending the three point line. This season, the Wizards allowed 683 three point field goals -- the most allowed by a team in league history.

So let's stop with the nonsense that the Wizards were better defensively last season. They weren't -- at least not in any meaningful way.

[/quote]

good post, very good article. it'd be nice to see the wiz collectively do something about that shameful stat next season.