Gilbert Arenas: The Next Step

[Silvie Lysandra]

So we've resigned Gilbert Arenas to a 6 year, $111 million dollar deal. We know that when healthy, Arenas has shown himself to be a truly elite player. If you may recall, this is the same guy that we were saying was better than Dwayne Wade, AND the same guy that we would NOT trade for Kobe Bryant.

Yes, just a year ago we wouldn't trade Gilbert Arenas for Kobe Bryant.

But to quote nate33

[quote=nate33] Gilbert has holes in his game that prevents him from becoming a superstar[/quote]

What are those holes?

Defense:

Obviously his poor defense - like players such as Amare Stoudemire and Allen Iverson, he has the physical ability to play good, if not excelllent defense (non-bowleggedness notwithstanding) but lacks the focus, or the grasp of the fundamentals. He showed flashes of improvement in that area, and was noted as a "terror" defensively in the Team USA tryouts before he was unceremoniously (and I feel unfairly) dismissed.

As most people feel, his main problem is focus. But from his public comments, it seems that he recognizes the problem and will work to fix it. Can he, and will his health get in the way?

Consistency:

But also, he is far too "streaky". While we defend his mediocre .419 fg% (though in years past it hovered around .450%) with the correct observation that eFG and TS% (which Gilbert compares favorably with the best players in the NBA in) are more valuable stats overall, and therefore more salient in determining a player's worth. However, the one aspect of the game where FG% is arguably better is consistency - because Gilbert takes more shots (3s) that are a lower percentage, he is arguably less consistent than a player like Wade who takes very few 3s. As the analogy goes, "if he goes 6-9 one night and goes 1-9 the next night, he went 7-18 which is a good percentage, but the fact is that the team likely lost the 1-9 game."

Don't get me wrong, I love Hibachi, and I love "DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR". But tone it down a bit.

The question is twofold:

1: Can Gilbert Arenas drive to the basket on a consistent basis like he used to, (and avoid injury).
2: Can he remodel his game to incorporate more driving, cut down the number of outside shots (I don't want him taking more than 350 3-pointers in a season, or something around 3-5 a game) and develop more ways to finish around the basket?

I'd rather see Arenas shoot 48% with 300 3s attempted than 44% with 500 - they may have similar TS% but I think the former would have less fluctuation from night to night.

Playmaking:

Granted, the Princeton is a two playmaker offense (so why do we have a traditional SG rather than a Hinrich/Hughes type - we really need a true combo 2 in that mold) so it can be excused, but I'd like to see Gilbert get his APG up to 7 a game. That would put him in line with Iverson, Marbury, Davis and other successful combo guards. Players who handle the ball a lot get a lot of TOs but I'd like to see Gil's go down a bit too. A 2-1 Ast/TO ratio would be desirable.

In general, Gil should trust his teammates though, let Butler/Jamison/the improving bench take some pressure off him. He doesn't need to be Hibachi every night.

My hopes:

Basically, I want Gilbert to not have to score 30 a night to win. I want to see something along the lines of 25.5 PPG/ 7.1 APG / 4.2 RPG /.475 FG / 375 3FG / 850 FT where he's shooting less, not falling too much in love with the outside shot (though launching it enough to keep defenses honest - a well placed 25-30 ft bomb can really loosen up a defense), and improving his defense. And of course staying healthy.

[truwizfan4evr]

lock

[mohammed10]

lock

Not so sure about a lock on this thread. Chaos' analysis of Agent Zero seem like they will stir some emotions during what would otherwise be the dog days of August...

[Wiz99]

Chaos' is on to an important point with Gil.

He's got star talent, but hasn't turned it into superstar production.

Most of the things Chaos lists require mental improvement on Gil's part. Too many fans round here think just cause Gil's got the physical skills that's enough.

Defense takes commitment, rather than giving 80% b/c you're waiting to shine on the offensive end - Gil does this sometimes. Great D means eliminating costly mistakes, like not leaving Delonte West wide open for a game winning 3 pointer in last year's playoffs when Gil slacked off of him.

Consistency is definitely mental as well. And playmaking is also about knowing what to do in the scope of your team's offense, not acting like you ARE the sum total of your team's offense. Definitely a mental feat, not a physical one.

Guess this year is Gil's year to layer on the mental sharpness on top of his mad physical skillz, if he wants to be a truly great player.

[miller31time]

In a perfect world, Gilbert would take a few less three's, drive a bit more, have slightly better shot-selection AND dramatically improve his defense.

But if he could just improve his defense (leaving his offense untouched), he'd be a true superstar, IMO.

The first scenario is just a bit unrealistic.

[cavsfan_osiris]

I posted this in another thread, but I think it's also appropriate here.

I hope what the Celtics did last season (ubuntu) rubs off on Arenas and shows him greatness is not trying to dominate by yourself on each possession even though you can. It's more about understanding situations, how you fit within the team and making good decisions.

The next step for Arenas is maturity.

[spaceman_E]

Gil can save himself from injury and bad shot selection by driving more but also driving and dishing more. This way he takes less contact, gets easy buckets for our finishers down low and will confuse defenses more for when he actually takes it strong. He did this a bit in the playoffs and I think that, along with improvement to an average defender will not necessarily be a giant leap forward but a solid step in his development into a superstar.