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Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz

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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#21 » by doclinkin » Thu Oct 16, 2008 3:44 pm

Dat2U wrote:How come when we talk about how EJ has developed his players it always seems to focus on the offense?


Careful readers will notice Dat is arguing for the sake of argument as usual. Re-read me and you'll note I said only that the players cited showed better leadership and responsibility, and that they were selected to the all-star team -- in most cases by the league or coaches, since the general public only taps the starters. Now you can argue with the league and coaches that they overvalue offensive stats-- go ahead, gawd knows no one will ever stop ya from arguing...-- but nevertheless the players in question were tapped for the AST by the folks most knowledgeable about the game. Now If you want to count that as evidence that the Coach somehow impeded their progress, who am I to argue...

Now I agreed with nate in stating that no player has performed better elsewhere than here under Eddie. Chucky Atkins maybe, but not really. In point of fact if we're talking defense Antawn Jamison played far better defense last year than he ever has in his career. He was top 20 last year in Defensive +/-, good for -3 opponent points defensively (per 100 possessions) over any replacement player. Credit Randy Ayers if you want, but the point is Eddie didn't _prevent_ that improvement, which was the initial knee-jerk reflex.

I could make a case that EJ develops useful players, but I didn't. Truth is the players I mentioned were journeymen in part because they were defensive liabilities.

Caron is 6'5" and has been a tad footslow (until he improved his fitness last year). I've watched (film on) the kid since he was a UConn prep-school prospect. He was a power four in a 2-guard's body. He's scrappy and tough and cunning, but not an athletic mismatch on the defensive end. He's strong for his size, which lets him hold his own on the blocks, but he's better at guarding the passing lane than matching his man straight up. There's a reason he was traded and not DWade. or Lamar. For his position he's undersized in most respects except heart. Defensive machiavelli Pat Riley let him go. Rudy Tomjanovich couldn't find a role for him between Kobe and Odom. Phil Jackson didn't veto the trade. Caron's defensive boards per 100 possessions have increased here. Ditto his assists, pure passer rating, a/to ratio. As has his blocks + steals per personal foul ratio.

Antawn Jamison has improved the defense of every team he ever left. But last year was among the top 20 team most-important defenders (probably due to the fact that no one else can rebound, to be fair).

Larry Hughes was a defensive player of the year here. Overrated I'd agree, but he hasn't been a more effective player before or since.

Gil. An argument can be made for Gil. He was a better defender in his limited minutes his rookie year. Since then he hasn't changed much. _Except last year_ when statistically (in a small sample) he was better than ever in his career in defensive boards, blocks + steals per personal foul and defensive replacement value +/-. So I'd submit the jury may still be out on him as well.

All but Larry have publicly credited Eddie as the guy who helped them succeed and gain acclaim. Take their game to the next level. Motivating and 'anti-demotivating' are key aspects of player development.

Notice again I didn't talk about Offensive improvements, which I figure are self-evident. Point being, statistically, the only player whose growth EJ may have (Please Use More Appropriate Word) has been Brendan Haywood. Until last year when he had the best year of his career. And the previous best year of his career was also under EJ, so it's still an open question. I do have confidence he'd play as well or better under a different system or coach -- Pat Riley would have loved the guy. So that 2 year stat droop is not insignificant. On the other hand if he comes back and performs as he did last year, for the next few years, the point is moot.

And EJ again may then be _allowed_ credit for ultimately not preventing his players from success which was the initial complaint. Or maybe even for Motivating them to perform above their talent level, which evidence suggests has been the case for at least a few of the players.

At least if you take the players word for it.
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#22 » by LyricalRico » Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:20 pm

doclinkin wrote:And EJ again may then be _allowed_ credit for ultimately not preventing his players from success which was the initial complaint. Or maybe even for Motivating them to perform above their talent level, which evidence suggests has been the case for at least a few of the players.


My big problem is that, other than the Larry Hughes example (which, don't forget, happened in a contract year for him), the guys you're using to prove your point weren't bums before they got here.

Jamison was a high lottery pick that GS saw as a franchise player they could build around. He was already an accomplished scorer and consistent rebounder before he came here. The only thing he's added to his game has been a more consistent 3pt shot. The whole "leadership" thing may have something to do with EJ but it could also be a function of Jamison reaching the other side of 30. And even then his "leadership" hasn't kept Blatche out of trouble or reigned in Gil's antics. But AJ's All Star seasons came under EJ so you at least have an argument there.

Gilbert Arenas was already on a steep incline after being the Most Improved Player his last year in GS. His work ethic (at least on offense) is completely self-sustained. I have absolutely no doubt that Arenas would be the same offensive player he currently is under any other coach. No chance EJ gets ANY credit from me for Arenas. In fact, he loses points IMO because Arenas is still nothing but a scorer and still can't help himself from practicing Gilbertology.

As for Caron Butler, he's another guy that seems like he was going to make it regardless of who was coaching him. He came from nothing, made lots of mistakes early on, and has a "tough guy, put the team on my back" type of mentality that was on display as early as his UConn days. I'll concede that he wasn't a good fit for the triangle in LA but had he stayed in Miami with Wade/Odom/Riley I believe he would have made the same type of progress he's made in DC.

Maybe we just have different definitions of what it means to "develop" players. I consider player development to be that you are the cause of a player becoming more than he would have become had you not been there. I don't consider you letting a talented player do whatever he wants to pad his stats to be development. I don't consider guys growing just as much under you as they likely would have under anyone else to be development. I don't consider the same results for 4 years in a row to be development.

Turning Kwame into a serviceable NBA player would have been what I call development. Getting Jarvis Hayes to stop pretending that he's MJ and start playing like the role player that he is would have been what I call development. Getting through to Andray Blatche that his future is from the foul line down instead of having him run a fast break or guard LeBron James would be what I call development. Getting Pecherov to stop jacking 3's with reckless abandon and focus on rebounding would be what I call development. Getting Nick Young to stop daydreaming and take the game seriously would be what I call development.

Sorry but being handed players with superior talent who were already on the rise, letting them run amok offensively, and riding their talent to first round playoff exits is not player development. Other than Larry Hughes having a fluke of a year, EJ has done absolutely nothing to make me put him and player development in the same sentence in a positive light.
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#23 » by nate33 » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:10 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Jamison was a high lottery pick that GS saw as a franchise player they could build around. He was already an accomplished scorer and consistent rebounder before he came here. The only thing he's added to his game has been a more consistent 3pt shot. The whole "leadership" thing may have something to do with EJ but it could also be a function of Jamison reaching the other side of 30. And even then his "leadership" hasn't kept Blatche out of trouble or reigned in Gil's antics. But AJ's All Star seasons came under EJ so you at least have an argument there.

Gilbert Arenas was already on a steep incline after being the Most Improved Player his last year in GS. His work ethic (at least on offense) is completely self-sustained. I have absolutely no doubt that Arenas would be the same offensive player he currently is under any other coach. No chance EJ gets ANY credit from me for Arenas. In fact, he loses points IMO because Arenas is still nothing but a scorer and still can't help himself from practicing Gilbertology.

As for Caron Butler, he's another guy that seems like he was going to make it regardless of who was coaching him. He came from nothing, made lots of mistakes early on, and has a "tough guy, put the team on my back" type of mentality that was on display as early as his UConn days. I'll concede that he wasn't a good fit for the triangle in LA but had he stayed in Miami with Wade/Odom/Riley I believe he would have made the same type of progress he's made in DC.

I think you make a fair point that Arenas was going to improve no matter who the coach was. His improvement over his first 3 seasons here were purely from his work ethic, his improved jumpshot, and his improved ability to draw fouls. He made little advances in the mental (coachable) aspects of the game like defense and ball distribution. That said, I think he showed some improvement in his pure PG skills in the 2006/07 season. His assists have drifted upward while his turnovers had dropped. Does EJ deserve any credit above and beyond what any other coach would do? I don't know. Hopefully, we'll find out in the 2nd half of the season. Arenas has had plenty of time to learn the mental aspects of the game under EJ's tutelage since he's had little time to work on the physical aspects of the game. I hope to see a little more Chauncey Billups out of him and a little less Allen Iverson.

I disagree with you about Butler though. It is far from a foregone conclusion that Butler would have blown up anywhere else. I think EJ does a real good job in getting Butler the ball where he is comfortable. His game has dramatically improved in the 3 years here after showing virtually no improvement in his first 3 years.

Jamison has also improved in each of his four seasons here. Last year, he posted the 2nd highest PER of his career behind only the one year in Dallas where he played in limited minutes against backups.
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#24 » by doclinkin » Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:23 pm

Look the argument wasn't that he's great at player development. I know you're too entrenched in a posisiton to find an exit strategy even if he wins a championship or whatnot. But no the argument was:
Gilbert0Arenas wrote: EFJ stinks at player development.


The counter-argument is: no he doesn't. Or anyway the stats don't support that. Players develop under him. The stats and peer review evidence suggests that by most objective measures. Assuming you consider the judgment of the majority of coaches to be relatively objective.

Now you can twist yourself into tantric yoga positions trying to refuse him credit. Fine, but nobody has made a definitive case beyond opinion and conjecture that EJ has prevented the players from developing. Stats show they've improved, even in efficiency measures. The players credit him. His peers credit him. Scouts and analysts credit him. I don't see any evidence that these players would be better under another coach and I don't know how you'd prove it, but players who left this team have performed worse.
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#25 » by LyricalRico » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:14 pm

nate33 wrote:I disagree with you about Butler though. It is far from a foregone conclusion that Butler would have blown up anywhere else. I think EJ does a real good job in getting Butler the ball where he is comfortable. His game has dramatically improved in the 3 years here after showing virtually no improvement in his first 3 years.


But how much of the early non-growth was him being stuck in the Triangle with a selfish Kobe Bryant? He actually had a heckuva stretch while Kobe was injured. There was nothing around him so the team still lost but he put up numbers when he had the chance.

doclinkin wrote:I know you're too entrenched in a posisiton to find an exit strategy even if he wins a championship or whatnot.


Hilarious...and true! Classic stuff, doc.

:bowdown:

doclinkin wrote:Now you can twist yourself into tantric yoga positions trying to refuse him credit. Fine, but nobody has made a definitive case beyond opinion and conjecture that EJ has prevented the players from developing. Stats show they've improved, even in efficiency measures. The players credit him. His peers credit him. Scouts and analysts credit him. I don't see any evidence that these players would be better under another coach and I don't know how you'd prove it, but players who left this team have performed worse.


Maybe so but I will still doubt until he somebody other than a wunderkind talent like Gil or a lottery pick like AJ/Caron has a sustained run under him. If he can turn the likes of Blatche, Pesh, Young, McGuire, or McGee into All-Stars then he'll have my attention.
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#26 » by Tiny Too » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:56 pm

Best case:
Eddie Jordan resigns
Ted Leonsis assumes ownership

Worst case:
Eddie Jordan stays
Abe lives on
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#27 » by doclinkin » Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:28 pm

Tiny Too wrote:Best case:
Eddie Jordan resigns
Ted Leonsis assumes ownership

Worst case:
Eddie Jordan stays
Abe lives on



Really really lacking class here...
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#28 » by doclinkin » Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:12 pm

LyricalRico wrote:But how much of the early non-growth was him being stuck in the Triangle with a selfish Kobe Bryant?


Very little. Caron didn't run in the triangle under Rudy Tomjanovich (the first 43 games). Kobe only played 66 games, but Caron had his best success late in the year playing next to Kobe after Frank Hamblen implemented the triangle. Except they lost a ton of games, even when he played well -- mostly because they had no interior post presence, but if you walk through the game logs you'll notice SF's went off on them.

I knew with Haywood here Caron would do well and improve defensively. He works hard enough on defense to make a player have to put in effort, and if they burn him with superior footspeed, Haywood would make them think twice inside. But without the back-up at times he has put the [sic] 'sive' in 'defensive'. Or anyway he's not a lock-down match-up positive mismatch and never has been. In fact, usually EJ covers for his shortcomings by assigning a better defender when Caron's on the wrong end of a mismatch. DeShawn or Jeffries have taken the dominant SF's.

Offensively Caron actually has a good skill set for Triangle: he can hit the midrange shot, make smart short passes, play underneath, play out of movement. Like the Wiz system Triangle gets knocked for it's complexity as well. The difference between the hybrid Princeton and the Triangle is chiefly this: Triangle relies on short passes and spacing to set up mismatches; Hybrid Princeton relies on player movement and spacing to set up mismatches. Or more simplistically: Triangle moves the ball, NBA-Princeton moves the players. Triangle is actually a better fit for Caron since his ballhandling beyond 3-4 dribbles isn't his strongest skillset. I'd expect Caron would have done pretty well under PJax, though even for the Tri, Phil wanted Caron to learn to handle better.

A better argument is to say Caron's development was stunted more by injury and trading teams. He would have improved no matter what, that's true. Would he have been an allstar? Doubt it. He may not be an allstar now when you look around...

But again, unless you say his growth was (Please Use More Appropriate Word) here for some reason and he should be better you can't say EJ 'stinks' at developing players. They develop. By accident or design they get better in most categories.
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Re: Write the worst case scenario/Best Case Scenario for the Wiz 

Post#29 » by Ji » Thu Nov 13, 2008 3:41 am

Ji wrote:Best case:

We finish 23-59 and win the NBA lottery. Gil comes back in January and after a slow start starts to show his game again. Averages 30 points a game in April. Andre Blatche averages a double double in the 2nd half of the season and becomes our starting power forward. Etan gets off to a decent start and we are able to trade him. Nick Young takes over for Deshawn and averages 14 pts a game in 2nd half of season. Javale McGee makes 1st NBA rookie team as he surprises everyone.

Worst case

We are about 5-6 games below .500 when Gil comes back. He leads us to a 39-43 record and we lose in the 1st round to Cleveland with everyone healthy. Gil is a shell of his form self even at 100%. Caron gets hurt again and kills his market value. Eddie Plays small ball and overuses Songalia at the expense of developing other players. Antonio Daniels can no longer get to the hole making him worthless. Andre Blatche gets arrested and shows that he is only a great player in summer league


I am liking my best case

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