WHICH WAY WIZ? Does it really help to try and compete now?

[doclinkin]

Okay, having a rare minute for reflection after what's been a Category 4 whirlwind of a year, here's where I'm at:

Thread topic is sorta moot anyway since Ted is already committed to his play. This year we weren't planning to add salary. Uncertainty in any new CBA, and lowered expectations coming out of the last couple years, and adding some new exciting talent -- will mean we can afford to play a different game than other front offices. We're sitting this year out until we see what the new salary-structure (etc) will be. We'll still draw a crowd and sell tickets. No need to over-extend oursevles while we still don't know the lay of the land. Ted is new to the game, doesn't yet have a power block to influence the other owners or strongarm agents and player reps, so until he sees the layout of the battlefield, he's not gonna commit to moving any of his ordnance.

For the 'Now' of the thread title we're adding minimum salary vets with good attitudes who are young enough to have something left, an upside, but who are willing to sign short term. Maybe we catch something good, maybe not, but we had only 6 players under contract anyway and need to reach 13 to be legal.

We're adding players that suit Flip's system not so much because they will be here long term, but to sketch out what the system is supposed to look like, how it's supposed to run once we put upgrades in place.

Player and role in Hawk offense or HPTFZone
=========================================
Johnny Balls -- primary dribble-drive ballhandler and decisionmaker; picks up full court to stall point of attack
Agent Niner -- secondary primary ball-handler, also runs rip patterns and baseline crosses past screens to get open for ranged attack
Kirk the Vulcan -- ditto on the pattern crosses for catch and shoot with range; adds savvy vet defender to challenge JWall's attack game/handle in practice, exemplify dirty tricks.
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Nick Young -- 2-3 swing player with range for the corner jumper, long armed perimter defender to clog interior passes force swing passes instead
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Al Thornton
TBooker

Crash Small Forwards -- [(c.) doclinkin 2009].
One more offensively oriented, one more about D, hustle and intangibles. The role is to set baseline screens, crash the boards for loose bounces from the midrange attackers, punish smaller 'threes' with low-post mismatch, hit open shots on bail-out options, or catch and finish on back-door baseline attacks cutting hard to the glass when left ignored. They only need to make instant decisions and commit 100%.

You need muscle and activity on defense to deal with the Power-Threes in the league. Big SFs like LeBron James, players vulnerable to abit of banging like Melo, over-long willowy SF's like Durant. You need all the energy and fouls you can get from this position on defense.

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Seven Dray
Yi Jian Lian
Hilton Armstrong

Jumpshooting Midrange Bigs who leave the paint open for the crossing patterns and attack of your real interior threat (ball handling streak Guards).

Dray is the primary in this role because of his remarkably proficient midrange multi-threat. He's the mid-post pivot player, secondary pass/attack option, exterior pick and roll danger, relay touch passer around whom much of the action may revolve. John Wall will draw a ton of attention on hedging and exterior picks. Dray will be his counter-pick option, a tall sentry tower who can see the passing lanes over the defense for the alley-oop lob (to the Crash Three, or JaVale, or even instantly back to Wall on the give-and-go).

Too bad especially that he's injured since this allows only 50% of the playbook when we lack the KG/Sheed-mimic in the offensive sets.

On defense they need only be long enough, active enough to prevent interior passes and discourage the dribble-drive. Fill the zone.

----------------
Seraphin
McGee

Rebounders and interior attackers who can catch and finish in the paint with high percentage when the set plays fail. Size on defense. In the case of Seraphin this means muscle. In the case of McGee this means over-the-back calls, basically, or merely 'tall'-ing his way to boards in open areas despite poor position. McGee fancies himself in the Dray mid-high post role detailed above. Though the hope is that he gets sufficient size and fundamentals to enjoy interior play, to give us the option of playing both not one-or-the-other. Sheed plus McDyess.

That's 11 players. Only a few slot exactly into their ideal role. But it helps the coaches sketch out the concepts. A player like Morrison would be a catch-and-shoot option that helps keep perimeter players honest, can't double-down inside. Maybe Hamady sticks on the roster to add interior defense if not offense. Flip has often kept an offensively inept player who can D Big.

So the 'WHICH WAY' question is answered: This is a placeholder year while the team develops youth. We added Kirk in large part to add Seraphin, a young strong athletic Big with real upside, and in so doing we also add a vet who can help teach fundamentals and coaching concepts. We keep Gil by virtue of necessity, and profit from it as well. You don't simply give away an expensive hi-calibre weapon, unless the law forces you to do so... Um, something like that.

Gilbert is an excellent attack threat. All-star. Gym fanatic. Student of breaking down defenses, and when healthy one of the more dangerous outside-in attackers in the league. Long range assassin when in top form. He's placed next to John Wall whose primary weakness is that long-range shot. Never know what chemistry may develop between the two. But in that 'never know' lies the implicit question suggested by the thread title: For 'now' we are keeping out of the race. Too many things are up in the air. But how long does 'now' last? And then what? How quickly can we contend? And what steps can we take to get there?

In a way those are the more interesting and important questions, maybe better resolved in another thread. Except in a re-definition of the question 'WHICH WAY'?

[AceDegenerate]

Chicago probably doesnt sign Boozer, Korver, Brewer this off-season with or without the cap space had they been in the lottery rather than the playoffs the past 2 seasons.

[doclinkin]

That said, where I take exception is the idea we should run and hide solely because Miami got good. (I had the beginnings of a long post on this, but hospital stuff interfered-- thanks barely, and others, for your good wishes. wifeydoc is coping, sad, but good).

A rebuild was the plan anyway. Miami will be good. But they're not flawless, indomitable or unbeatable. And quite frankly the fact that LeBron is SUCH a douche makes me want to compete sooner rather than later-- not run away and hide. Hmmn, let me see if I can edit a long sleep deprived tirade I had working before worse came to worse. A bit hyperbolic but it's where I was at the time
===================================

First quiet minute I've had in weeks so since it was a sore point and a source of some discomfort I'll get back to it:

I don't want to drag everyone down and I don't particularly like my argument either, but the board here collectively reads like the everyman reaction to the start of a war with a “Don't worry lads, we'll be marching into Berlin and home by Christmas!”[...]

Seems to me our side did win that war, right? In part because of a certain cat who said: "Never give up. Never give up, never, never never..." And the stiff upper lip and chipper perseverance of his people in some measure helped defeat the diabolical infernal engine of the opposing war machine.

In fact near every war we've been involved since then has been undermined and derailed in part by hand-wringing and displays of public prevarication and lack of unity. In part. Often rightfully so, since then our military actions have often fallen short of of a clear moral imperative: an enemy so obvious and odious that it galvanized the collective will of the people into a grim and righteous determination to see it ground to ashes and rinsed from the earth.

[and here's where we go over the top, trench to trench, dangling in the barbed wire]

We have that enemy now. In a basketball sense. And as a basketball fan it disgusts me, deeply, to suggest surrender, even under guise of rational prudence. So, frankly, I will deny it and defy it and work --in anyway that I can, as a devout partisan for my team-- to undermine and destroy it and --heck, make myself a martyr to the cause if that's what is required.

Martyr? What can an online basketball fan give to the cause. In my case I offer up any pose of rational objectivity, which serves as cold comfort anyway, and throw the body of my public (if semi-anonymous) reputation into the front lines, hoping to get close enough to spit in their mother-xxxxing eye.

I could give a crap about Miami from a sports perspective. They have no honor, they have done nothing to earn their fortune, they are a weak-willed, late arriving early to exit bunch of dilettantes, who, let's face it honestly have something far better to do with their time 41 days a year.

Yes, 'late-arriving' etc, all coming from a Bullets fan. Wizards fan. Granted we've sold tix for many years to migrants from other towns who don't really care about the City, never assimilate, preserve their imported cultural identity in a way that, say, New Yorkers don't. (Anyone who has lived in New York for a time claims it as a badge of honor, DC-imports, less so).

We know this City is a basketball city, that we've suffered and struggled and argued and held our tongues in barbershop one-up-man-ship-- and bided our time. Bode our time for the day that our karmic brushpile of good stewardship of the flame of fanaticism can be kindled to a blaze, a beacon-fire to show other down-trodden fans that if you wait, if you work, if you hope, if you support your cause and keep faith even in the face of otherwise utter hopelessness then someday, some day, you will be rewarded with an indelible moment of glory. Championship.

Dynasty.

A small man, a rational man, might reasonably run and hide and bank the fire of enthusiasm for his team, lest it be snuffed. On the calculation that he wouldn't want to clear his throat in that barbershop (or on the General Board for the meeker, more cerebral, dens of fandom) wouldn't want to raise his voice and embarrass himself as a hapless adherent of a lesser team. A 'loser'. He'd have less ammo to defend his side, whether fact based or humorous and descriptive.

But we're BULLETS fans. We've been through far worse times. You are allowed to lose your perspective, chuck your clipboard of carefully considered position backed up by facts, and raise a middle finger. Unless you're a late-arriving migrant to this team, who got suckered onto this side by a few brief months of dynamic and exciting play with our boy wonder Gilbert and his pal Larry or Tough Juice and all, unless you are a front-runner who has accidentally picked a horse because it looked good in the starting gate but never knew the history -- well then you know: we are promised nothing, we rarely even receive that much, and somehow: IT DOESN"T EFFIN MATTER. Since we can no more easily change our fandom than we can swap our heart from our chest for a factory made model.

But lie low? Hide? Run from a challenge? There is no honor in that. Why would you buy that jersey? Why would you buy that League package?

Does the only fun in fandom come from utter domination? And the rest is abject misery?

Maybe. Maybe. I'll cede the point: maybe.

But I'd count myself worthless as a fan if I couldn't gin up the courage, couldn't discover enough red in my blood to call out my enemy and face him. Show up every night, ready to boo until my vocal cords are ragged strings, and work up a healthy competitive hate for a fatuous sack of bloated pus who swapped uniforms because he knew hadn't the stones to fight for himself and had to hide behind the skirt of a player with proven stones.

THAT is my point. Don't get so lost in the half-informed 'analysis' that you lose sight of the fact that we participate in an irrational act: we roar and spit and suffer deep psychic pain because a bunch of maladjusted mesomorphs and pituitary cases race around in short pants defying physics with acts of implausible grace and power.

It doesn't have to make sense, no matter how many numbers you invent for it to make it seem a rational and reasonable pastime for a well-informed gent of good breeding and high IQ. You waste long hours typing witty nonsense about something over which you have no control. Surrender to that fact, get over yourself and become a fan. Your enemy now is the Miami Heat. They suck. Admit no weakness in front of them. You don't know how, you don't know when, but our squad, our Boy John Wall, our man Trevor Booker, our team will somehow prove their antidote, and that of all teams in our way. And we will feel nothing but the pure golden glow of righteous vindication.

How long will it take? Who knows. It'll happen. But we will never give up: never give up. Never ever.

[doclinkin]

Something like that. A bit spit-flecked and wild-eyed but whatever. The haiku form being

**** miami heat
we got john wall now, bitches
we gone WIN this bitch

[nate33]

We've missed you around here, doc.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You are the best, doc.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Something like that. A bit spit-flecked and wild-eyed but whatever. The haiku form being

**** miami heat
we got john wall now, bitches
we gone WIN this bitch

What you might see as haiku hyperbole, I see as not too far-fetched. F Miami and the three my egos.

The Wizards have freak athletes (you didn't copyright it, yet) at one and five. Those two can run and jump and pressure the Heat where they are weak. The Wizards also have (if Seraphin comes) at least one or two thugs. Kirk and Nick Young have had successful moments against Dwyane Wade. Young kicked his ass one game at both ends of the court. If nothing else, these two make him work and think about it. At PF, Blatche can get his against Bosh.

If the Wizards can rebound the ball they will run the court. If Wall lobs the ball, in addition to McGee, Yi Jianlin and Booker can finish. That Heat team has three stars, but how will they rotate on defense? Who's going to look for the open man all the time? How will they act when they're behind? Might one of them try to take over? I think the Heat will be susceptible to quick, athletic teams that just want to run.

I haven't even mentioned Agent 9 Millimeter. When he's on his game as a scorer, he's almost as effective as Wade or Lebron on offense. If Gil managed a 41-point game on one leg this past season, I could see him dropping 50 if Wall's pressuring the defense and getting him the ball. If Gil had a triple double and his highest career assist ratio under Flip last season, I imagine he'll get more assists per minute with McGee wide open underneath or with Wall flashing to the basket.

I'm trippin' I know, but I recall seeing teams like the Bulls with Curry and Chandler beat the Miami Heat team with Shaq and Wade in the regular season more than once. They simply matched up well with them. Curry and Chandler seemed to annoy and frustrate Shaq. He couldn't do the overpowering big boy stuff without having to concern himself with having his shot blocked from the weakside by Chandler. Curry was actually decent on offense then. Those guys beat the Heat and made them work each time the Heat won.

Likewise I predict, this Wizard team will be tough against Miami. If Arenas comes back anywhere near his best, the Wizards will be a surprisingly good team.

This season OKC gave the Lakers all they wanted due to their athleticism. The Wizards, with Blatche and McGee have some young bigs who are getting better. Miami is looking to sign Juwan to help their bigs. Riley brought back Ilgauskas. They resigned Haslem. They love Joel Anthony. All those moves tell me our bigs will be better than theirs soon.

They can't outquick Wall and Young. They are considerably shorter than the Wizard frontcourt. They expect to win all the time, and to dominate. But what happens when their toughness and chemistry are tried? How will RuPaul, the Queen, and the madam who runs the ho's respond?

What they'll have to depend on is one-on-one moves from Wade and Lebron; plus favorable officiating.

[Hoopalotta]

What I am really speaking to is the strategic aspects of war winning over the morale aspects.

But, if we're going to get silly with it....

In the case of Britain, Churchill and the stiff lippers were singing those inspirational notes during the entrenchment phase from an island. An island where they were stockpiling draft picks as they steadily rebuilt. The idea of taking that example and applying it to the Wizards and the HEAT sounds more like the woe-sprung 1939 excursion of the British Expeditionary Force, which was composed of motorized infantry and jump shooting role players, who were then routed in a four game series by the Panzer divisions. The end result was that the medical staff was forced to strap outboard motors to size 18 sneakers and rescue what remained of the team at Dunkirk. The British pushed the offense again, but they first tried to slow the game down, effectively replenishing their roster before going for the chip. “Having our biscuits and eating them too, gents” as the highest strategic mandate is like the Dieppe Raid of 1942, whereby Marvin Williams and Josh Childress were deployed in a costly half measure of a commando action (it was adapted into a film actually, forgot the name, but with Lloyd Bridges starring as Marvin Williams). I say we wait for Normandy. Normandy.

Getting even more ridiculous....

Going back the the Persian Wars, Leonidis did not simply start in with a “fight in the shade” speech on day one on a whim to impress sparsely attired cheerleaders. He also took only 300 players out as he had no ideas about making all-in roster moves that would hurt the Spartan franchise long term. So they didn't lace 'em up at thermopylae with the idea of proving a point, nor did they fastbreak out to the open fields of Thrace where the game would have been over in the first quarter. Instead, they found the most disagreeable billygoat trail and put up a backboard while the Athenian navy put a press on the Phoenician vassal ships (these were integral to the Persian offense as the logistics needs of the Persian bandwagon fans were locust like). The coaches put up a good game plan on the chalk board as it was mostly playing to their strengths, but, it didn't work as the Athenian Triremes were built for the halfcourt game, having matchup problems with the Persian navy in the open court of the aegean. Likewise, the Persian army ran an inbound play that sidestepped the Spartan trapping at which point they were posterized. Plucky? Yes, but it was also part of a coherent game plan rather than empty symbolic resistance. As the basketball gods would have it though, the efforts did serve some purpose as the rough seas took a toll on the Persian roster with a portion of their fleet blowing out their ACL's. Delay. Delay, delay, delay.

The real tesxt of that conflict shifted to that of the Athenians, who effectively ceded their homecourt to a blowout loss in an empty arena - Athens was sacked, but at least they'd had the good sense to empty the mini bars in luxury boxes first. But the decisive moment of the playoffs was to come shortly as, after following the Greek retreat down the peninsula, the Persian fleet - again made up mostly of Phoenician guards - was boxed into the paint and posted up in the confined waters of Salamis by the Athenian bigs, who were like an aquatic Sofoklis Schortsianitis. The refs swallowed their whistles while the game was played on 8' foot rims and an undersized court. The fish fed well on oriental silks and the crowd went wild.

The lesson is that ball clubs and states bring home the chip by operating strategically through the coherent and realistic designs of planners, rather than by emotionally catering a plan around what would make for a good story. Do I watch games as a fan strategically? No, I don't, but no front office should be drunk on a highlight reel when they make roster moves either. So that's what I'm referring to here; I can't help it, I was born this way. But I would be encouraged in my cheering were I to know that the Wizards Archons were disposed to deploy with advantage through these principles. The saber rattling is nice as a chocolate-in-trenches type morale boost, but I'd prefer a Tzu'ian hesitation move to be the top down mandate.

The main thing is that we're effectively well removed from ground zero, being on an island when you consider the youth of our roster - and that island is more like Crete in the first Persian War than Britain in the second World War (Orlando might be Britain while Boston is looking more like France). We're well poised away from the mainline to sally forth at a particular moment into the enemy rear area.

I would look for our march to progress every year, but under no circumstances would I deploy vital resources from our base camp towards a concerted offensive in the next few years. I'd skirmish on the periphery where the stakes are lower - jousting with Rommel in the Libya - and join the proper mele after Miami's Legions have accrued wear through a few years of hard campaigning. This armchair strategos suggests that the plan should be for Washington's best ball to decisively present arms three, four and five years from now. Whatever decisions lead to that is the battle plan I endorse.

As to Miami, I don't like their style either – they're like an alien battle cruiser that warps in out of the void and fires off antimatter torpedos at the sun without any context, history or identity. Who? Worse still, it's like they didn't even develop the technology for the battle cruiser either – they were just janitors in the spaceport and made off with the keys. But it's still an alien battle cruiser.

[penbeast0]

Now that's what I call analysis

(Leonidas played for the Greeks though, not the Trojans, who had already been screwed by that point)

[Hoopalotta]

:clap: Now that's what I call analysis

(Leonidas played for the Greeks though, not the Trojans, who had already been screwed by that point)

Wow, I screwed that up; totally know better too.

Too much paper work; I'm editing in the big red Sparta.

Edit to add --> Yeesh, same mistake twice, I don't know what came over me, too much writing today

[mhd]

Right on the money CCJ. Even though McGee is a terribnle defender, the frontline of McGee, Blatche, and Thorton really frustrated Boston. With all three, at least we'll always have a length advantage against any team we'll play (a far cry from the RUffin Etan Jamison days).

[hands11]

Doc post is a nice detailed summary of many posts in one. Well done. That is pretty much the way I believe it is. Still not seeing McGee as a starting center. To often, I don't get the feeling like there is a center defending the paint when McGee is down there. He just doesn't have that presence. Again, hopefully Seraphin can give this presence. Big ? still.

True the direction has been set. For me, I see only a few big questions/concerns.

Keep Gil or Not.
There still seems to be some question as to if Gil will be here to start the season. I fall in the 100% keep him camp. Unless there is some amazing trade that brings us someone like Wade or Durrant to replace him, I say we keep him. As for how Wall and Gil will get along. The more I watch Wall in interviews the better I feel about it. The kid is pretty mature and has a good head on his shoulders. If anyone can make it work with Gil, I'm confident that Wall can. One of his goals is to create and atmosphere with his teammates. The kid is a student and he is humble and he interviews very well. Gil should relish the fact that we added Wall. For one, Wall should remind Gil of himself in many ways. Two, Wall has the young legs and body to do more of the driving and getting pounded so Gil doesn't have to so he can when he wants to but he doesn't need to and the team will still have someone that does. This will prolong Gils career. Three, Wall can take over the duties Gil didn't relish which is thinking like a PG, being a vocal team leader that bring the team together, etc.

Wall appears to be a team first type. He wants to build up his teammates. That is a true PG in the mold of a Magic Johnson, Kidd, Stockton, etc. I hope Gil stays. I predict if he does, he will have a great year on the court. He may even help give us a more mature Gil in the process . As for Gil, I believe just acting like less of a flake and a distraction will be enough. Addition by subtraction. If handled properly, I believe Gil will rehab his image and share the stage with Wall and others. The next thing I'm looking to hear more about is how Wall and Gil are talking and practicing together and how well they are getting alone. Wall will set the tone with his approach which will be, hey, lets get on the same page so I know where and when to get you the ball. If we can get on the same page, we can be the best back court in the league. I'll be your Rondo with a better shot while you just focus on being an elite SG.

I haven't seen the team picture they plan on using to promote the team like they used to have Gil, CB, and AJ, but I can see one that is Wall, Gil and Dray with Wall in the middle. Until this gets worked out, I think they will avoid this type of picture and focus on Wall. Maybe we see one around training camp.

Usually you see on here.
http://www.nba.com/wizards/intro_fanilypack.html
http://www.nba.com/wizards/tickets/

Now that Summer League is over and Wall has proven he is for real, the story line is slowly going to start to move to the next question(s) and that is Gil. He is the pink elephant in the living room. We saw what Wall can do so that is going to be less of the story line. Now it's going to move to... What about Dray and What about Gil.. From a PR angle, If they need to buy some time, they should start to feed us more info on Dray and start to stick him in front of the camera. They could also fill the air with some Kirk interviews. Dray was the lone star on this team to end last season so I want to start to hear about Wall and Dray. I want to hear more about Wall talking to Dray. Lets not forget how awesome Dray was last year. I haven't heard much about Dray. We know Wall and McGee are clicking but this wasn't McGees team to end the year, it was Drays. One by one he needs to weave the web. Connected individually, then bring the whole thing together. But at some point, they have to start to answer the Gil story line. Hopefully things are going well behind closed doors.

This is what a great PG does. It's not just what they do on the court, it's how they bring a team together. It's sharing the vision of the coach. Being that coach on the court but also a player. It getting the team on the same page off the court and getting everyone the ball when and where they need it on the court. Then stepping in to take over when that is needed. They are glue. They are all things to all people.

This is why players like AI or Gil were never PGs in my eyes. They played PG on the court but they were SGs playing the PG position who wanted to score more than build up their team.

So I expect the next story line to be Wall and Dray. To bad Dray broke his foot but I guess they can still do some shooting around.

After this, the next big remaining issue is defensive center. When will we see or hear more about Seraphin ?

[Tyrone Messby]

Great posts doc and ccj. I'm starting to lean more toward the keep Gil camp, at least for one year to see where this team stands.

Having said that, I still can't believe we landed Wall. It is sort of surreal to see us discussing him and what he can do for our team. If that isn't an indication things are looking up for this franchise, than I don't know what is.

[rendezvousness]

wall is going to be a top 5 pg of all time by the time his career is said and done. for the wiz, every single move that is made should be to ensure that wall has a team that can compete for a ring by the time its walls contract year. if that means scrap the team now, then so be it.. walls not gona cry and ask for a trade.. as long as he has a good team by his 3rd-4th year thats all that matters.

[rendezvousness]

btw not a wiz fan so i have no idea what kind of flexibiilty u guys have via cap space and draft picks for the next few yrs.. was just rambling