Jeff Green

[pancakes3]

young players are investments. you don't pay them based on what they put up last season. you pay them based on what you expect them to put up in upcoming seasons. there is an element of risk but that's part and parcel of the GM-ing game. sure paying him 60 mil over 6 years now is not worth it but hopefully by year 6 it will look like a steal. if you keep holding onto your pursestrings and wait for him to blow up, then it'll really be overpaying.

if green is extended 3 years and is dropping 20/6, GMs will be tripping over themselves to toss rudy gay money at him. then all of suddenly offering 60/6 to counter the extension starts looking real good.

[montestewart]

Rudy Gay money looks a lot like Rashard Lewis money. Too much money. I've only actually seen Jeff Green play in the NBA a few times, mostly playoffs, and while I'm not knocking his game, I've seen nothing there or in his stats that tells me to expect too much more. Sure $10 mil isn't max money and is maybe easier to trade, but is it $10 mil x 6 years for a critical piece or for a role player? Arenas get $20 mil per, and some or all of McGee, Blatche, and Wall will have to be resigned at some point.

[sfam]

He is no tweener. The only reason he gets the tweener lable is because OKC play him out of position. And the only reason they do that is to let their star play his natural position (Durant at SF, as opposed to SG), and because Green's defense is passable enough to guard some guys in the post. Hes a pure SF with good size.

Fair enough. I take back my "tweener" criticism. That said, he's still only a role player. Here are the per-36 numbers of Jeff Green along with a bunch of other easily-obtainable role playing SF's:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
green,jeff   14.6  5.8  1.6  1.2  0.8  1.6 .502 .531 13.8
wright,dorel 12.7  5.9  2.3  1.3  0.8  1.3 .536 .567 14.6
williams,mar 12.3  6.2  1.4  1.0  0.7  1.1 .485 .540 13.0
casspi,omri  14.6  6.4  1.8  1.0  0.3  1.8 .502 .529 13.1
dudley,jared 11.8  4.9  2.0  1.4  0.3  1.2 .582 .612 13.5
barnes,matt  12.4  7.7  2.3  1.0  0.5  1.9 .546 .576 13.6
gomes,ryan   13.1  5.5  2.0  1.0  0.3  1.5 .497 .528 12.1
chandler,wil 15.3  5.4  2.1  0.7  0.8  1.7 .502 .534 13.8
pietrus,mick 13.9  4.6  1.0  1.1  0.7  1.5 .540 .555 11.8
ariza,trevor 14.5  5.5  3.7  1.7  0.5  2.2 .462 .488 13.4

Would anybody pay $11M a year for one of these guys?

That's a great chart. But the question that still niggles at my consciousness is whether we see a real improvement in Green's play if he stays in his natural SF position. When a player is misused, their numbers change dramatically. Look at Hedo in Orlando vs Toronto, for instance. If the Wizards do go after him (or really, whomever overpays him - I agree Green will get more than the MLE, and probably more than the 7 mil I mention), it will be for this reason - they think he'll make a jump at SF.

[montestewart]

^
Looking at breakdowns by position on 82games.com, throughout his first three years, I don't see anything obvious that shows Green would be much better as a full time SF. Again, I don't really see any trends, disparities by position, or any other reason to think he will be making any big leap. He's active and physical and a decent defender, but I don't see him as so different from many others on nate33's chart. Maybe some others that have watched him play more can add to this conversation, because it doesn't look like it's in the stats.

[doclinkin]

^
Looking at breakdowns by position on 82games.com, throughout his first three years, I don't see anything obvious that shows Green would be much better as a full time SF. Again, I don't really see any trends, disparities by position, or any other reason to think he will be making any big leap. He's active and physical and a decent defender, but I don't see him as so different from many others on nate33's chart. Maybe some others that have watched him play more can add to this conversation, because it doesn't look like it's in the stats.

He played for Georgetown, thus his points and rebounds have more verve and panache than equivalent stats by other players. They ought to count for more in some undefinable fashion. They are more earnest and sincere.

[montestewart]

^
Perhaps merge w/ Laron Profit shrine?

[nate33]

That's a great chart. But the question that still niggles at my consciousness is whether we see a real improvement in Green's play if he stays in his natural SF position. When a player is misused, their numbers change dramatically. Look at Hedo in Orlando vs Toronto, for instance. If the Wizards do go after him (or really, whomever overpays him - I agree Green will get more than the MLE, and probably more than the 7 mil I mention), it will be for this reason - they think he'll make a jump at SF.

In general, players actually perform better statistically when they play out of position. They do so because they are being guarded by somebody who is not suited to guard them. I'm sure Jeff Green would rather be guarded by Carlos Boozer than Trevor Ariza.

With Jeff Green playing PF, I would expect his offensive stats to look good, but his defense to look poor. His defense does indeed look poor going by the on/off numbers, but his offense also looks pretty bad. I suspect if he was moved to a full time SF, his offense would be largely unchanged (maybe even drop a bit) and his defense would improve a bit, but not enough to make him any better than an MLE caliber player.

[fishercob]

Why dont we move this to the SF thread.

[dangermouse]

For those who think tweener or that he wouldnt play any better primarily as a SF, you need to track down Summer League footage of him (where he played almost all his minutes at SF).

I know its against lesser competition, but its still useful. He had a few ordinary games, but played rather well and consistently. I think his second summer league game? Maybe third... he had a huge game and displayed offensive talents consistent with a SF; taking guys off the dribble to the hole and pulling up for jumpers, making cuts, spotting up.

Just because his handles are nothing to write home about and he has some ability to play in the post doesnt force the tweener lable on him. If that is the case then half the small forwards in the nba should have that lable.

Hes far less of a tweener than a guy like Harrington or Jamison, or Booker. To me if hes going to have that lable, hes more on the Rashard Lewis end of the tweener scale i.e. guys who would be better off playing most of their minutes at SF.

[mikem1]

Dayam. I just found this blogger's piece on the Jeff Green quandary and Oklahoma City. I wonder how Kevin Durant would feel about his boy being traded. Or maybe he would just want the best chance to win ... either way, it's an interesting read.

http://bit.ly/bTUjCG

[dangermouse]

that trade makes a lot of sense for both teams

gortat fills a need for them very cheaply while aldrich develops. ibaka getting more minutes at pf is a good thing, although i feel he is still very raw, they should look around for a true starting level pf if they are to contend this year. collison would get more minutes there too, instead of being played as an undersized C.

they would be foolish to hold onto him out of sentimentality, and i dont think they would get a better deal than this. perhaps the magic would reject the trade, but they would be foolish to hang on to an assett like gortat, and this fills a hole at SF for them. im not sure who the better defender at PF is, lewis and green are probably about on par there, green may be a little better. against bigger front lines they could always start bass and have green as their 6th man.