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2010 FA Thread: Part 2

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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#661 » by colts18 » Wed Sep 29, 2010 1:03 am

nate33 wrote:
Hoopalotta wrote:Posey's is actually in Indiana now, but I think the idea is that it would have been a pick swap that only took place if we wanted it to.

Right. That's the idea.

Obviously, we can't make any such trade right now because we have no idea how the standings will turn out by season's end. But if we're flirting with an 8th seed, it would be nice to make such a deal with a team that appears to be a lock to miss the playoffs. The idea is to upgrade our pick into something that could turn out to be an above average starter.


flirting with the 8th seed is the worst thing the team could do. If they want ever want to be better than a 6th seed, they need to tank next season and possibly 2012. Top 5 pick next year and a top 10 pick in 2012. That gives you the pieces you can build around John Wall when he hits his prime. Wall+Blatche+McGee or Seraphin (whoever steps up)+2 lottery picks could be decent. After that you trade Arenas and sign a max FA like Dwight Howard or 2 mid level FA with the cap space. The team also needs more BOYD deals. next year is a punt season in my opinion. Winning is worthless.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#662 » by Dat2U » Wed Sep 29, 2010 3:24 am

colts18 wrote:flirting with the 8th seed is the worst thing the team could do. If they want ever want to be better than a 6th seed, they need to tank next season and possibly 2012. Top 5 pick next year and a top 10 pick in 2012. That gives you the pieces you can build around John Wall when he hits his prime. Wall+Blatche+McGee or Seraphin (whoever steps up)+2 lottery picks could be decent. After that you trade Arenas and sign a max FA like Dwight Howard or 2 mid level FA with the cap space. The team also needs more BOYD deals. next year is a punt season in my opinion. Winning is worthless.


I don't think you can at such things in a vacuum. Yes, flirting with the 8th seed is pretty bad if your an older team with no real upside. For the current version of the Cleveland Cavaliers, flirting with the 8th seed would be the worst thing possible considering Antawn Jamison & Mo Williams are their best players & outside of J.J. Hickson, they lack anything resembling quality young talent.

For the Wizards, I see nothing but benefits if this team is sniffing playoffs come March or April. A young team doesn't really gain alot from losing, it only projects bad habits that may be hard to break down the road. I for one would love to see John Wall, Andray Blatche & Javale McGee get a taste of playoff action. To face a team like Orlando or Miami in the playoff and get some understanding of what it really takes to win in the NBA.

As far as the winning is worthless comment. Tell that to the owner, GM, coaches & players.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#663 » by montestewart » Wed Sep 29, 2010 3:28 am

^
Or the fans.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#664 » by colts18 » Wed Sep 29, 2010 4:35 am

Dat2U wrote:
colts18 wrote:flirting with the 8th seed is the worst thing the team could do. If they want ever want to be better than a 6th seed, they need to tank next season and possibly 2012. Top 5 pick next year and a top 10 pick in 2012. That gives you the pieces you can build around John Wall when he hits his prime. Wall+Blatche+McGee or Seraphin (whoever steps up)+2 lottery picks could be decent. After that you trade Arenas and sign a max FA like Dwight Howard or 2 mid level FA with the cap space. The team also needs more BOYD deals. next year is a punt season in my opinion. Winning is worthless.


I don't think you can at such things in a vacuum. Yes, flirting with the 8th seed is pretty bad if your an older team with no real upside. For the current version of the Cleveland Cavaliers, flirting with the 8th seed would be the worst thing possible considering Antawn Jamison & Mo Williams are their best players & outside of J.J. Hickson, they lack anything resembling quality young talent.

For the Wizards, I see nothing but benefits if this team is sniffing playoffs come March or April. A young team doesn't really gain alot from losing, it only projects bad habits that may be hard to break down the road. I for one would love to see John Wall, Andray Blatche & Javale McGee get a taste of playoff action. To face a team like Orlando or Miami in the playoff and get some understanding of what it really takes to win in the NBA.

As far as the winning is worthless comment. Tell that to the owner, GM, coaches & players.


I would they much rather win 25 games than limp into the playoffs with 38-40 wins. The team needs another piece for the future. If the team could team up John Wall with Harrison Barnes, the team will have an exciting backcourt. Then trade Gilbert for cap space that becomes a max guy (hopefully Howard) and the team finally has a chance at being a real contender.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#665 » by Hoopalotta » Wed Sep 29, 2010 4:50 am

^ I'm not averse to that sort of thing in theory, but we're more likely to get a guy like Mountiejounas than Barnes (it would be just like Yi never left!). And we can probably still have a 2012-13 max slot anyway with the Blatche deal in the bag even if Gil stays. Also, I wouldn't rule out Arenas using his ETO that summer with us then inking a four or five year deal with him from there (he doesn't have to sacrifice money for it to potentially work for both sides). In that case, we'd absolutely have a max slot available unless we do something really stupid between now and then.

Bottoming out has certain advantages and I'm not against it by any means, but if there's going to be a discussion, we should still put those advantages in more balanced and realistic terms.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#666 » by Dat2U » Wed Sep 29, 2010 6:00 am

Yeah, if we were told tanking automatically Harrison Barnes then the argument might have some merit but that's not reality nor is the idea that starting off a season in tank mode won't cause serious collateral damage.

Even the ever-patient Teddy Leonsis said he hopes this team can make the playoffs this season.

I'm very hopeful that the core of Wall, Arenas & Blatche can be more than a 25-win team.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#667 » by Wizardspride » Wed Sep 29, 2010 6:51 am

Hoopalotta wrote:Also, I wouldn't rule out Arenas using his ETO that summer with us then inking a four or five year deal with him from there (he doesn't have to sacrifice money for it to potentially work for both sides).

I've been thinking about this possibility as well.

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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#668 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 29, 2010 7:02 am

colts18 wrote:I would they much rather win 25 games than limp into the playoffs with 38-40 wins. The team needs another piece for the future. If the team could team up John Wall with Harrison Barnes, the team will have an exciting backcourt. Then trade Gilbert for cap space that becomes a max guy (hopefully Howard) and the team finally has a chance at being a real contender.


It's just not possible to do at this point, unless the team suffers a string of the usual disasters. Teams do not deliberately start the year tanking. And even when the front office deliberately adds one-year stop-gap proven scrubs like Hilton, Morrison or Yi-- even when they re-sign injured players like Josh-- coaches like Flip working with pieces like Gilbert, Dray, Hinrich and Wall will find ways to win. And players like Yi may suddenly undergo a jump of improvement, or find a system that works well for them.

Coaches coach to win, to set themselves up for future jobs, to teach players the good habits required to succeed, to keep players motivated and dedicated, not accustomed to losing and finger pointing and bad chemistry, habits and attitudes that last long into the future. A clever tactician like Flip has had a long time to develop the systems and sets that will work well with this collection of players.

He's not stepping into a situation with the exact opposite roster needed for the system he wants to run, and an expectation that veterans will swiftly change the skillsets they've been running at an allstar level, in a system that's been in place for 6 years. The team is likely to improve, on his designs alone.

There are too many irreversibly crappy teams out there for the Wiz to honestly contend for the bottom of the barrel. And no real percentage in dishonestly un-contending. It almost never works. The best way to have a chance is to stockpile draftpicks and draft clever.

I've said it many times, and Dat reiterates above: the playoffs are the crucible that forges veterans out of raw talent. The earlier you start knocking on that door the quicker you develop, the quicker you devote yourself to the sacrifices required to get yourself back there. First you win, then you get good.

Miami will be tough, a favorite in any game they play when DWade is healthy. Dwight Howard gets better every year (though this year he'll be attempting his Hakeem Olajuwon moves, so who knows). Chicago should improve significantly with coaching and Boozer. There are plenty of roadblocks to success. But with Gilbert back and focused and that number one draft pick in the fold, the 'tank' transport has left the station a while back.

Understood you dislike and distrust Gilbert. We haven't won a championship with him here and you've decided he's the cause of your disaffection. But I suspect the anti-bandwagon will see a few riders fall off the cart and reluctantly grudgingly have to backtrack on whatever they've said. Reluctantly cheer for the team anyway.

That's okay. Remember only that you're a Bullets fan, Wizards fan, wherever you started, and allow yourself a few moments pleasure when the team actually wins their fair share of games this year. Or knocks off a few heavy favorites. We're on a different path now. Player development, experience, chemistry, and okay sure --opportunistic trades at the right time, whatever the player, or whatever talent or picks come back in the trade. Those are our best hopes for serious upgrades now. Not tanking for this years picks, who may or may not come out before a possible lost year. Who may or may not sign a deal in Europe or China if they do.

I for one hope not to crater and bottom out, but instead hope for our man Gilbert to do what he and the fans only ever wanted him to do: justify the rest of that 80 million dollar contract. Make it look like a bargain. If this year you find yourself suckered into hope, then don't be scared to commit to it all the way: imagine, Gilbert earning every penny of that contract, and then some. Dive in. Swim around awhile. Allow yourself to enjoy the warm water without fearing for sharks and dark tides. Never know, sometimes good things actually happen. We'll see.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#669 » by colts18 » Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:54 pm

doclinkin wrote:Understood you dislike and distrust Gilbert. We haven't won a championship with him here and you've decided he's the cause of your disaffection. But I suspect the anti-bandwagon will see a few riders fall off the cart and reluctantly grudgingly have to backtrack on whatever they've said. Reluctantly cheer for the team anyway.

That's okay. Remember only that you're a Bullets fan, Wizards fan, wherever you started, and allow yourself a few moments pleasure when the team actually wins their fair share of games this year. Or knocks off a few heavy favorites. We're on a different path now. Player development, experience, chemistry, and okay sure --opportunistic trades at the right time, whatever the player, or whatever talent or picks come back in the trade. Those are our best hopes for serious upgrades now. Not tanking for this years picks, who may or may not come out before a possible lost year. Who may or may not sign a deal in Europe or China if they do.

I for one hope not to crater and bottom out, but instead hope for our man Gilbert to do what he and the fans only ever wanted him to do: justify the rest of that 80 million dollar contract. Make it look like a bargain. If this year you find yourself suckered into hope, then don't be scared to commit to it all the way: imagine, Gilbert earning every penny of that contract, and then some. Dive in. Swim around awhile. Allow yourself to enjoy the warm water without fearing for sharks and dark tides. Never know, sometimes good things actually happen. We'll see.


I don't hate Gilbert. In fact, I like him more than a lot of the Wizards fans who wanted him gone next year. My only issue is that the team isn't going to win with his contract on the books. I'm hoping that he can recover not only because his trade value will go up, but because shut up the haters from last year.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#670 » by Rafael122 » Fri Nov 12, 2010 2:12 am

I'm gonna throw this out there, for 2011:

Yao Ming.

This team needs a center. Yao Ming is in the last year of his contract and I don't think Houston is going to re-sign him. It seems as though the team has moved on from him, no longer need him to draw in the fans, etc. The team has only won 1 game, and Yao is on a limit for minutes played per year. The Wizards, as I said before, need a center. They can sign Yao Ming, it would be a boon to the Chinese market in the area. We'd probably sell out our home games just with Yao on the roster. We can have Yao and McGee as our centers. We could still limit Yao's minutes, he'd probably come off the bench, but that would be a potent lineup.

What say ye? Our cap will be at $44 million. We could end up with 1 max slot, or slightly less than that. Would you guys do it?
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#671 » by no D in Hibachi » Fri Nov 12, 2010 2:46 am

Yao is rotting before our eyes. Signing him would be a mistake. It'd be like signing Shaq this off-season. He's an aging role-player who would be depth on a championship caliber team if you trust that he can play more than 20 games a year. It'd be misguided to sacrifice max cap space in 2012 for Yao when he's not a top player anylonger. Lastly, Susan O'malley much? Sign a player to boon the Chinese market?
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#672 » by Rafael122 » Fri Nov 12, 2010 2:50 am

They did it with Yi. Apparently they set up some deals with Chinese investors or something. BTW, I probably mis-spoke but Yao is not worth a max contract at this point considering his injury history.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#673 » by no D in Hibachi » Fri Nov 12, 2010 3:09 am

I think Yi has 80% of the following Yao does and the Wiz still can't sell out. The Chinese market really isn't much of an advantage, IMO. I never interpreted your comments to mean the Wiz should sign Yao for a max contract, but what I'm thinking is that if the Wiz do not sign anyone in 2011 and just add a 1st round pick they'll have max cap space in 2012. Any signing that extends beyond 2011 intrudes that space so the Wiz could sign Yao, but they'd then take themselves out of the running for Dwight. I don't think Yao is worth it. 2004 Yao would be worth it, but injuries have taken a toll.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#674 » by Rafael122 » Fri Nov 12, 2010 3:12 am

And if Howard re-signs with Orlando, then what?
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#675 » by Dat2U » Fri Nov 12, 2010 3:58 am

no D in Hibachi wrote:I think Yi has 80% of the following Yao does and the Wiz still can't sell out. The Chinese market really isn't much of an advantage, IMO.


Actually, the Chinese market is massive (300 million fans) and relatively untapped. I can understand why a team would be very interested in building inroads into that population. Look at Nike, they've got their eyes locked on China and are doing everything possible to extend their sales into that country.

The problem is, placating to the Chinese by simply signing their players won't make a huge dent. The most popular basketball player, and the one that sells the most over there isn't Yao, Yi or even LeBron. It's Kobe, by far. Chinese fans are driven by winning. Success. Championships. Rings. And Kobe has five of them. You want to capture the heart of Chinese fans? Win something! It won't be done by keeping a scrub like Yi, although considering we are at least a few years away from winning, having Yi doesn't hurt our interests over there. I can understand the idea of pairing Yi's popularity with Wall's presence to hopefully build a name for Wall over in China but without some hardware to go along with it, Wall or the Wizards won't reap the full financial rewards that the Chinese market could potentially provide.

As for Yao, I'm not sure what is with us Wizards fans. First it was Oden, now it's a broken down 30 yr old who's been so devastated by injuries that he's stated he'll retire if he suffers another serious injury. And you want to pair one of these guys with our crack medical staff??? Do you want Yao & Oden dead? I can't think of a more nightmarish pairing.

If I forced to choose b/w the two, I'd pick Oden, mainly b/c of his defense, age & the fact he might not retire in the next 3 years. And I wouldn't give up an asset for Oden either. I think if we wanted him bad enough, I think we could sign him away as a free agent next year.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#676 » by Hoopalotta » Fri Nov 12, 2010 9:23 am

Rafael122 wrote:And if Howard re-signs with Orlando, then what?


All the guys from the 2008 draft class will be restricted. Also some of the 2011 draft class might just sign qualifying offers if the signing period is pinched short or confused by the lockout.

Or, if the lockout pinches the cap down hard, there could be some guys under contract that become available for cap space.
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#677 » by Rafael122 » Fri Nov 12, 2010 8:23 pm

Dat2U wrote:
no D in Hibachi wrote:I think Yi has 80% of the following Yao does and the Wiz still can't sell out. The Chinese market really isn't much of an advantage, IMO.


Actually, the Chinese market is massive (300 million fans) and relatively untapped. I can understand why a team would be very interested in building inroads into that population. Look at Nike, they've got their eyes locked on China and are doing everything possible to extend their sales into that country.

The problem is, placating to the Chinese by simply signing their players won't make a huge dent. The most popular basketball player, and the one that sells the most over there isn't Yao, Yi or even LeBron. It's Kobe, by far. Chinese fans are driven by winning. Success. Championships. Rings. And Kobe has five of them. You want to capture the heart of Chinese fans? Win something! It won't be done by keeping a scrub like Yi, although considering we are at least a few years away from winning, having Yi doesn't hurt our interests over there. I can understand the idea of pairing Yi's popularity with Wall's presence to hopefully build a name for Wall over in China but without some hardware to go along with it, Wall or the Wizards won't reap the full financial rewards that the Chinese market could potentially provide.

As for Yao, I'm not sure what is with us Wizards fans. First it was Oden, now it's a broken down 30 yr old who's been so devastated by injuries that he's stated he'll retire if he suffers another serious injury. And you want to pair one of these guys with our crack medical staff??? Do you want Yao & Oden dead? I can't think of a more nightmarish pairing.

If I forced to choose b/w the two, I'd pick Oden, mainly b/c of his defense, age & the fact he might not retire in the next 3 years. And I wouldn't give up an asset for Oden either. I think if we wanted him bad enough, I think we could sign him away as a free agent next year.



Thanks Dat, way to shut me down. It reminds me of this scene:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0[/youtube]
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Re: 2010 FA Thread: Part 2 

Post#678 » by Ruzious » Fri Nov 12, 2010 8:36 pm

I guess things have changed quite a bit in China in the last decade. I was there for 3 weeks in December, 2000. Yao was the undisputed god of all things basketball there. There were statues of him and 50 foot murals of him on buidings in downtown Beijing. All of the Houston Rockets games were televised there. It was cool, because they televised through US commercial breaks.
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