Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

[Hoopalotta]

So, if Gil suddenly starts attacking the hoop in mid-January, who's going to be suspicious of intentions?

Last night he didn't take a single shot that was closer in than 16 feet. Take a look here and go down to the shot locations section:

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?nam ... t%20Arenas

Once last night is compiled, he'll be at 1.4 shots at the rim compared with 3.9 last year, which is, uh, a bit suspicious given that he hasn't suffered any sort of actual genuinely troubling injury since then. 1.4 shots at the rim is bottom 7 in the league for guys playing 30 or more minutes:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx? ... =0&mins=30

It seems more likely to me that Gil consciously isn't going inside than it is that he just suddenly can't and I can only think of one reason that jumps out as to the why. It's starting to get a bit ridiculous. Another no-layup game and he's at 1/3 of last year's level.

[hands11]

First, I don't blame him at all for not going inside more. Who is on the court? Gil or Wall.
Wall can't stay healthy in large part because of his style of play. Gil used to get clobbered a lot doing the same kind of things and besides, he hasn't gotten those calls like he once did in a long time now. So given the best things for Gil and this team is that he is healthy and he hasn't played much over the last 3-4 years, hell no I don't want him driving and finishing.

Going inside and finishing isn't the primary job of your PG anyway. That is how they get injured. A PG should be able to do it to keep a team honest and so he can use that in crunch time when you need a score or to get to the line, but not as a core thing. They just need to move the defense and make them react and collapse. Driving is dishing is fine. Actually, it is preferred. Let your bigger, stronger players finish. That is what a Nash does. Sure, a strong guy like Rondo can do it but most PG who drive and finish a lot end up injured.

Our problem isn't Gil not driving, it's having SFs and PF who can finish. If you are one of the few luck team that has a SG like Kobe or MJ, they can do it.

Given our roster, what we are missing is a stud finisher at SF. We don't have one SF who is constantly putting pressure on teams but doing this. Until that happens, Nick is the one that needs to drive and finish more because he has the best body and talent to pull it off, not Gil and God I hope not Wall anymore who can't stay healthy.

So while your stats may be accurate, I think this is a good thing and shows that Gil is adjusting his game properly. There is nothing good that can come from him selling out his body for a team that doesn't have the pieces to win right because of it's lack of quality SF. And if they had that piece, it wouldn't be required of him except in key spots when it actually mattered.

Keep up the good work Gil.

[nate33]

People need to stop making excuses and come to grips with the fact that Arenas has not been a very good basketball player this year. Here are his pace-adjusted per-36 numbers:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  3P% eFG%  TS%  PER
arenas,gilbert  18.2  3.5  5.7  1.4  0.6  3.5 .326 .463 .505 14.3

He has been woefully inefficient, shooting terribly from the floor, poorly from 3, and turning the ball over a lot, while playing below average defense. I don't know if he's playing hurt, or he has permanently lost a step, but let's stop sugar coating things. Arenas is, right now, an average player. And that's probably being charitable.

Here's a list of guys putting up similar numbers:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  3P% eFG%  TS%  PER
arenas,gilbert  18.2  3.5  5.7  1.4  0.6  3.5 .326 .463 .505 14.3
collison,darren 16.6  3.5  5.0  1.4  0.1  2.9 .414 .480 .537 15.4
crawford,jamal  17.9  2.2  4.2  1.0  0.3  2.5 .347 .488 .554 15.4
jackson,stephen 18.1  4.5  4.6  1.5  0.4  3.3 .388 .503 .546 15.9
jennings,brando 19.5  4.3  5.8  1.3  0.4  2.6 .372 .460 .508 17.8

Basically, Arenas is Brandon Jennings with more turnovers, or Jamal Crawford with less efficiency.

[Hoopalotta]

Hands,

Gil can't be efficient without finishing inside. He just can't.

If you take his best seasons and take out the layups and a good chunk of the free throws, it's not particularly efficient even with the better jump shooting. Actually, Gil's long 2's are better now statistically than they were in 2007, but it doesn't matter as long 2's aren't going to win a lot of games as a featured weapon. And even if you plug in Gil's best ever percentages from 3-Pt land, you're probably not taking his PER much past 15 and a little bit. You're just not winning games with those numbers. And none of the guys at the bottom of the "field goal attempts at the rim" list are horses you want to ride for 20 points a game. The only guys he's ahead of on the 30 minutes or over list are these vaunted slashers: Kidd, Frye, Hinrich, Outlaw, Morrow and Battier.

But it's not a matter of blaming him or being ticked off. For all we know, if he is indeed holding back, he could have had a talk with Ted and or Ernie and it's all part of the plan for him to play like this now. I don't think he has an antagonistic relationship with Ted and there probably aren't a lot of secrets in that back and forth.

[hands11]

I don't recall lots of people making excuses for Gil.

I think what people are doing is commenting on his current play and also his past history of when he gets hot while also commenting on how his is adjusting during his return after few games in many years.

Count me as one who doesn't believe he has longer term magically lost his ability to shoot the 3 ball.

His range there is anything from .351 to .375 with a life time average of .356

He is currently at .326

Just from that data you would conclude he is going to at some point start shooting the 3 ball better.

His life time TO average is 3.3 and he is at 3.4 so no biggy there. Specially when you have players like Yi and other young players fumbling the ball.

He has posted games of 16, 7, 8, 10 assists in the few games he was the starting PG without FIAT while he is also adjusting to coming off the bench to start the year and also playing more SG.

Count me as one who doesn't think Gil is done or that we have seen the best of his game yet.

Gil will be a lights out hot shooter again. He and Nick are still our best pure shooters and once Gil gets it going, it should be interesting to see this both on a roll at the same time. They can shot you back into a game in a hurry.

[Nivek]

The raw numbers on Gil's turnovers are deceiving. Yeah, his per game average is only slightly higher than his career average, but per game numbers are largely a waste of time. Gil is playing fewer minutes this season and he's using fewer possessions. Even the per minute numbers don't really tell the story because of that lower usage rate.

Back when he was Agent Zero -- one of the league's most efficient high-usage players -- his turnover rate (how many of his possessions ended with a turnover) were 11.8%, 12.8% and 11.2%. This season, his turnover rate is 16.4%, which is dangerously close to the turnover rates he posted when he was a reckless youngster.

By the way, Nate's actually being generous to Gil by using TS%. Using offensive rating (which incorporates shooting, turnovers, assists and offensive rebounding), Arenas is horribly inefficient. His ortg is 98 -- league average is 106.6. Back in his Agent Zero days, Gil's ortg was 115 vs. a similar league average. And his usage rate in those season was over 30 -- this season it's 26.4.

I agree with hands on one thing -- I don't think we're seeing the best that Gil WILL play. I think he'll get better as he figures out what he can and can't do on that knee. But so far this season, he has not been a good player.

[dlts20]

Put me in the catagory who honestly doesnt know. I definitely dont think he's tanking it until he gets traded because no one is going to trade for him if he sucks. I dont think he's tanking it so he doesnt get traded either because that just makes no sense.

I think its either the knee thing & his physical stuff comes & goes with the wind or its all mental. He has no doubt had some games where he moved alot better then he is now. It wasnt prime Gil but it was still enough to be good. Now he looks like Deion Sanders with that turf toe injury where it seemed like he gained a permanent limp in his run. He has the speed of a PF right now in a PG's body and is drawing good defenders so he sucks.

The #1 thing I have always hated about Gil is that he seemed to be mentally weak. He never wanted to do the things that it took to win titles and thats one thing but he also would suck anytime he had any kind of minor injury coming into a game. He's also one of the biggest confidence guys in the league. If he starts stinking it up then he goes further in the tank instead of the other way.

One thing that Im really starting to hate is the Jason Campbell crap though. I was a big fan of JC but I started to turn on him when he never took responsibility. Nothing was ever his fought. All the int's were on the recievers, on the line, coaches not opening it up enough, no running game, and so on. Gil is doing that same thing now. Everytime something bad happens, he's blaming the young guys. Then the media ask him about scoring more and he tries to fake & say that he doesnt want to do that because he wants to play a team game when in reality if he was healthy & confident then he would be trying to get 40 all the time. He just cant right now for whatever reason.

Maybe he needs to sit again for awhile beause he's not moving well at all or maybe he just needs to get mentally tougher. We hear all this stuff about how he's blowing by guys & dunking in the Summer. I think it may just be an adjusment for him playing against guys in real games, at real speeds, and are big. I think he could turn it around soon but he has to do it on his own, mentally

[hands11]

Good numbers. Thanks.

So in context to his recovery from not playing much over the 4 years and also in context of his changing roles from bench SG to shared PG/SG with Wall to lead PG sometimes without Wall and factor in the interesting stats other posted about how he turns it on later in the season ...

Doesn't that all kind of make worrying about his low output numbers a little over reacting ?

Not saying you are, just in general.

I mean, I definitely wanted to see better output from him last game and everything was lined up for him to do it that game. They even commented on it in the post game. Gil need to be a primary scoring threat again given who we had healthy that game. No Wall. No Dray.

But he didn't get it done. Now if he still has any of the old Gil still left in him ( I think he does ) he will see that as a challenge and step it up. Specially if they are going to sit Wall for a while.

Nick needs to be getting 40 minutes on this team. He has proven himself as much or better than anyone of the team this year. He has earned it. And Gil and Nick has a thing so start them both.

If we are playing a longer team we should go.

Gil, Nick, Booker, Dray, McGee. You could even do Seraphin with McGee as energy off the bench which could balance the line ups differently.

Gil, Nick, Booker, Dray, Seraphin
Kirk, Martin, Nick, Booker, McGee
Kirk, Gil, Gee, Dray, McGee

If they get Dray back, they can still line them up well but Gil needs to get it rolling so they have 3 primary scorer in Gil, Nick and Dray. Then the roll player fit in better. But with no Dray and Gil not hitting, it's going to be ugly until we get Howard and Dray back.

I still think this team can look good this year. Funny thing is, it doesn't seem to me to be based on getting Wall back as much as having Dray and Howard healthy and Booker and Seraphin getting consistent minutes

Gil, Nick, Booker, Dray, Seraphin
Gil, Nick, Howard, Dray, Seraphin
Gil, Nick, Howard, Dray, McGee
Kirk, Martin, Nick, Booker, McGee
Kirk, Gil, Gee, Dray, McGee

[tricky99]

Could it possibly be that Gilbert is not playing to the level he is capable because he is just not that vested in this team any longer?

Let's face it the team sucks. Why should Gilbert risk possible injury for a team that is going nowhere who don't even consider him apart of its future plans?

The wizards have done a multitude of things to alienate Gilbert.
1) They throw him to the wolves when the gun thing happened.
2) They removed his banner and stopped selling his jersey.
3) They and everybody else said it was Wall's team.
4) They gave the captain label to a kid and a vet newcomer to the team.
5) Gilbert appears in none of the promotion for the team.

If you were Gilbert and had been the face of the wizards and got them the only playoff success they have had in 20 years and then was treated like he has been how dedicated to the organization would you be?

Gilbert is coasting and earning a paycheck. He has no reason to bleed for this team after all its Wall's team lol. The wiz have put all there hope on Wall. That may turn out be a disaster in the long run.

[Ruzious]

First, I don't blame him at all for not going inside more. Who is on the court? Gil or Wall.
Wall can't stay healthy in large part because of his style of play. Gil used to get clobbered a lot doing the same kind of things and besides, he hasn't gotten those calls like he once did in a long time now. So given the best things for Gil and this team is that he is healthy and he hasn't played much over the last 3-4 years, hell no I don't want him driving and finishing.

Going inside and finishing isn't the primary job of your PG anyway. That is how they get injured. A PG should be able to do it to keep a team honest and so he can use that in crunch time when you need a score or to get to the line, but not as a core thing. They just need to move the defense and make them react and collapse. Driving is dishing is fine. Actually, it is preferred. Let your bigger, stronger players finish. That is what a Nash does. Sure, a strong guy like Rondo can do it but most PG who drive and finish a lot end up injured.

Our problem isn't Gil not driving, it's having SFs and PF who can finish. If you are one of the few luck team that has a SG like Kobe or MJ, they can do it.

Given our roster, what we are missing is a stud finisher at SF. We don't have one SF who is constantly putting pressure on teams but doing this. Until that happens, Nick is the one that needs to drive and finish more because he has the best body and talent to pull it off, not Gil and God I hope not Wall anymore who can't stay healthy.

So while your stats may be accurate, I think this is a good thing and shows that Gil is adjusting his game properly. There is nothing good that can come from him selling out his body for a team that doesn't have the pieces to win right because of it's lack of quality SF. And if they had that piece, it wouldn't be required of him except in key spots when it actually mattered.

Keep up the good work Gil.

I have to respond to this post, because it's just emblematic of the excuse-making that goes on within the organization from EG on down and... apparently goes on with some of the fan base. There is no excuse for the stats Hoopa brought up. Gil's been effective in his career BECAUSE of his ability to drive to the hoop and finish. If he's not going to do that at all, he won't be a good player. He has not been a good player this season. That is not good work... Brownie. He looks healthy out there. It's his responsibility to be the best player he can be. In order to be that player, he has to have some drives to the basket and have a balance of scoring and dishing. That's what makes him Gilbert Arenas - the player. He's Gilbert Arenas, and he has to score more efficiently - period.

[AceDegenerate]

Could it possibly be that Gilbert is not playing to the level he is capable because he is just not that vested in this team any longer?

Let's face it the team sucks. Why should Gilbert risk possible injury for a team that is going nowhere who don't even consider him apart of its future plans?

The wizards have done a multitude of things to alienate Gilbert.
1) They throw him to the wolves when the gun thing happened.
2) They removed his banner and stopped selling his jersey.
3) They and everybody else said it was Wall's team.
4) They gave the captain label to a kid and a vet newcomer to the team.
5) Gilbert appears in none of the promotion for the team.

If you were Gilbert and had been the face of the wizards and got them the only playoff success they have had in 20 years and then was treated like he has been how dedicated to the organization would you be?

Gilbert is coasting and earning a paycheck. He has no reason to bleed for this team after all its Wall's team lol. The wiz have put all there hope on Wall. That may turn out be a disaster in the long run.

Everybody will ignore you because you're not jumping in with the crowd here, but this is 100% correct.

[Shanghai Kid]

I honestly think Gilbert is coasting and not putting in 100% at this point.

There is not real evidence of this, it's just the sense I get from watching the games. He's never in attack mode. He has no interest in taking over games or being a star for this team. I'm a Gilbert fan, and I've never seen him play this bad in his career.

When we talk about abilities, I have to question how Gilbert would be so far off from last year. Don't get me wrong, he wasn't the old Gil last year. But if anybody remembers, last December Gilbert was averaging 25ppg/8 assists before he got suspended. How did we go from THAT Gil to THIS Gil? It doesn't make a lick of sense that all his scoring abilities suddenly dropped off that radically. He should be able to drive to the hoop still.

Anybody remember when he had that 45 point/13 assist game against Golden State last year? It's hard to imagine him doing that now.

Maybe he's hurt. It's hard to believe that Gilbert would be such an 'old man' on the court when he's still only 28. He will never be tradable if he can't shoot or drive.

[Dat2U]

i don't think Gil is coasting. I think he's hurting. Gil lives and dies with basketball. I don't see him as the half ass type. He's the ultimate gym rate. He's the one that's rushed back from injury time and time again. He's the one that went into deep depression after he got suspended because he couldn't play. To suggest he's not giving 100% is absolute foolishness. That's not going to help him get traded if he actually wanted it, that's only going to ensure he's in DC longer because nobody is trading for a guy that looks like a shell of himself right now.

Watch him play. He's playing in slow motion. I don't know if its the surgically repaired knee or the groin injury he suffered earlier in the year but he's not right. Especially on back-2-backs, he looks like the Andray Blatche of point guards. He's not getting points in the paint b/c of a lack of confidence in his ability to explode & finish. He'll still attack the basket on occasion but only to pass off to inferior teammates. I'd say he's gutting it out instead of mailing it in.

[tricky99]

i don't think Gil is coasting. I think he's hurting. Gil lives and dies with basketball. I don't see him as the half ass type. He's the ultimate gym rate. He's the one that's rushed back from injury time and time again. He's the one that went into deep depression after he got suspended because he couldn't play. To suggest he's not giving 100% is absolute foolishness. That's not going to help him get traded if he actually wanted it, that's only going to ensure he's in DC longer because nobody is trading for a guy that looks like a shell of himself right now.

Watch him play. He's playing in slow motion. I don't know if its the surgically repaired knee or the groin injury he suffered earlier in the year but he's not right. Especially on back-2-backs, he looks like the Andray Blatche of point guards. He's not getting points in the paint b/c of a lack of confidence in his ability to explode & finish. He'll still attack the basket on occasion but only to pass off to inferior teammates. I'd say he's gutting it out instead of mailing it in.

He could be both hurting and coasting lol. Many a great player has quit on a team when they realized it was futile and they weren't particularly appreciated. Only time will tell with Gilbert. I most certainly think that Gil wants out of DC. There is no point for him to spend the basketball he has left in him playing nurse-maid to a bunch of kids.

Right now I think his shot is just not falling but I still don't think Gil has any intention of going balls to the wall for this team.

Wiz keep making the same mistake, hoping that players develop into something special. that is always a crap shoot. Do the Lakers fill the roster with a bunch of maybes? No they do what they have to do build a good team. Chances are that most of the Wiz young players are going to turn out to be fool's gold.

[hands11]

Could it possibly be that Gilbert is not playing to the level he is capable because he is just not that vested in this team any longer?

Let's face it the team sucks. Why should Gilbert risk possible injury for a team that is going nowhere who don't even consider him apart of its future plans?

The wizards have done a multitude of things to alienate Gilbert.
1) They throw him to the wolves when the gun thing happened.
2) They removed his banner and stopped selling his jersey.
3) They and everybody else said it was Wall's team.
4) They gave the captain label to a kid and a vet newcomer to the team.
5) Gilbert appears in none of the promotion for the team.

If you were Gilbert and had been the face of the wizards and got them the only playoff success they have had in 20 years and then was treated like he has been how dedicated to the organization would you be?

Gilbert is coasting and earning a paycheck. He has no reason to bleed for this team after all its Wall's team lol. The wiz have put all there hope on Wall. That may turn out be a disaster in the long run.

Give this man a Gold star already. DING DING DING DING

And besides, PGs only need to press the D by being effective. They can use other players to finish. If those other players finish, the D reacts to them and opens up easier drives for the PG, if they don't, it isn't the PG job to get clobbered on a team that is loosing a ton and doesn't include you as stated above. Hell, even Wall who is included can't stay healthy playing that style.

Can Gil do better. Sure he can. But the first play is by starting to hit open shots which he is already getting. Who finishes plays and dunks and get fouled it not Gils job. The crash dummy role appear to have been pasted to Wall ( FIAT ) along with the entire face of the team. Sorry Dray, you are not included in this face of the team thing.

[hands11]

I honestly think Gilbert is coasting and not putting in 100% at this point.

There is not real evidence of this, it's just the sense I get from watching the games. He's never in attack mode. He has no interest in taking over games or being a star for this team. I'm a Gilbert fan, and I've never seen him play this bad in his career.

When we talk about abilities, I have to question how Gilbert would be so far off from last year. Don't get me wrong, he wasn't the old Gil last year. But if anybody remembers, last December Gilbert was averaging 25ppg/8 assists before he got suspended. How did we go from THAT Gil to THIS Gil? It doesn't make a lick of sense that all his scoring abilities suddenly dropped off that radically. He should be able to drive to the hoop still.

Anybody remember when he had that 45 point/13 assist game against Golden State last year? It's hard to imagine him doing that now.

Maybe he's hurt. It's hard to believe that Gilbert would be such an 'old man' on the court when he's still only 28. He will never be tradable if he can't shoot or drive.

Some of us keep explaining why and we will likely keep doing it so you have plenty of chances to get your answers.

Gil has actually done a good job of putting his game together piece by piece this year. His shooting is still off, but he started off the bench and injured and mentally in a tough place after last year and loosing the label of it being his team. Adjusted. Then his 3 ball showed up. Then he started and adjusted. Had some good games. He started to drive. Didnt work well. Then did it some more and it worked better. Then he was off the bench again. Then he started with Wall and they looked good. Now is starting again with no Wall.

Give the dude a freakn break already. 22 games in and he is healthy and he has gone through all of this. Yeah, his shot is off. Who really thinks that will last forever. Gil has historically been a great shooter and from long long range.

This is so much a non issue it isn't even funny. Give the guy some time already. His role and this roster changes almost every game.

Hell, I'm more worried about Wall, his health and how he plays than I am Gil