Official Trade Thread XVI: 5/3/11 - 6/29/11

[BigA]

<snip>Apparently, Blatche's off-season workout regimen can be most accurately described as Haynesworth-esque.<snip>

Haynesworth's regimen probably includes more gropes, and Dray's more beer curls and lap dances.

[7-Day Dray]

<snip>Apparently, Blatche's off-season workout regimen can be most accurately described as Haynesworth-esque.<snip>

Haynesworth's regimen probably includes more gropes, and Dray's more beer curls and lap dances.

I'm a Blatche fan, but I gotta admit, that was FUNNY!

[JonathanJoseph]

I believe Blatche's body is destined to break down earlier in his career than the average NBA player's does. This is based solely on some "inside info" I got from a member of the Wiz's off-season training staff. Apparently, Blatche's off-season workout regimen can be most accurately described as Haynesworth-esque. The guy comes into camp out of shape every off-season.

I'm not trying to make an excuse for Blatche, but in the past 2 seasons Arenas, Butler and Seraphin have all shown up at camp grossly out of shape. If the problem didn't extend to a non-trivial percentage of the roster, I'd consider this a little more damning.

[pcbothwel]

^^^ Arenas was in very good shape coming off the knee and didnt show up outta shape til the gun incident(and that was the first time in his career that has happened). Seraphin was a 20 year old rookie coming off knee surgery, coming to a new country and speaking a new language. I believe Blatche has showed up outta shape 5 of the last 6 years.

This is not say there is no hope for him, but this is the last chance I give him.
- Hes injury free on a young, scrappy, athletic team that should push him in practice.
- He is a starter who will play significant minutes with a Game changing facilitator(Wall).
By the trade deadline we should have an idea of what we're dealing with in Seraphin, Singleton, and Vesely. If Blatche is not showing a more physically developed and efficient game by then, I look to move him before 2012 season.

[old rem]

Blatche has much of the talent and skills to be a very good player but he's still too lazy and immature to reach a higher level. Can be useful at times...not reliable.

[rockymac52]

1. I don't expect us to compete much this year. Even if some of our young guys continue to develop and improve, I just can't see this team winning more than 30 games. I think we could very easily end up with a worse record than last year (although no matter what I expect the road record to be slightly better).

2. I am a big fan of stockpiling 1st round draft picks for next year's draft. I think the projected top 15 players are all guys who could end up as big time contributors. I think almost all of next year's lottery would have gone top 3/4 in this draft. I assume we'll have our own lottery pick next season, so hopefully we can add another good, possibly very good, player. But so will 13 other teams. I'd like to try and trade for 1st round picks in 2012, whether they're high lottery, middle of the 1st, or end of the 1st. If we get a couple late 1sts, or even just one, next year would be an ideal time to consolidate draft picks, along with our 2nd rounder perhaps, in order to move up in the draft, hopefully into the lottery.

3. I understand that we currently have 3 rookies, and 4 sophomores (at least 4, I'm not counting N'Diaye), and that our team is very young. Add in next year's 1st rounder and we have 8 guys with very little experience. I'm advocating getting even more 1st rounders for 2012, but obviously I don't want there to be more than 10 guys on our roster who have been in the league less than 2 years. That's why I think we all need to accept that it's okay to trade some of our 7 rookies/sophomores (other than Wall obviously), in order to acquire potential lotto picks in 2012. Even guys like Crawford, who some believe is solid and could end up being a contributing wing on a winning team. There are legitimately 15 guys that should be in next year's draft that are worthy of top 5 picks in normal drafts (aka potential allstars and/or superstars). The more draft picks we can get in next year's draft, the better our chances of landing one or more studs. This is the easiest way to build our team into a title contender. Other than signing a max free agent (think Dwight Howard). That's honestly a pipe dream. Only way it's even a possibility is if we end up with 2 or more great players in the 2012 draft, and Dwight is willing to play with the youngin's. And even then, it's a stretch. This is our opportunity to become title contenders nearly overnight.

I know we're all split on guys like McGee, Blatche, Crawford, Young, etc. and whether they are actually good enough to get a lot of minutes on a championship caliber team, but I'm willing to let pretty much any of them go if it means we can get 2012 1st round picks. Not to mention we'd just tank that much harder and increase the chances of our own pick ending up #1.



Soooo, how do we acquire 2012 1st round picks? Preferably likely lotto picks, obviously. What teams are in the market to deal their pick this early? How much value, if any, do any of our players have right now (outside of Wall)?

[Bickerstaff]

I believe Blatche's body is destined to break down earlier in his career than the average NBA player's does. This is based solely on some "inside info" I got from a member of the Wiz's off-season training staff. Apparently, Blatche's off-season workout regimen can be most accurately described as Haynesworth-esque. The guy comes into camp out of shape every off-season.

bull. I hope some anonymous creep goes online and attempts to harm your reputation with some phony hearsay. You're repulsive.

[rockymac52]

I think there will be a trade opportunity at some point during the season for us where we can acquire a mid to late 1st round pick in 2012 relatively cheap. Similarly to how we acquired the Seraphin pick and Crawford. In a deep draft like next year, that type of trade could be great. I'll take the 25th pick or something in that range gladly. I know the draft is supposed to be really deep, but let's be honest, it's probably not THAT deep to the extent that the 25th pick is going to be abnormally better than it normally would have been, but it might possibly be slightly better than usual. Or at the very least, it is a valuable asset to have in order to move up in the lottery coupled with our other 1st, or if we are able to acquire other pieces, it could turn into a 2nd lotto pick perhaps. But we'll deal with this as the opportunities arise over the course of the season.

What I think we need to be doing right now is looking at teams that could very realistically end up in the lottery next year who have previously been playoff teams, or think that they're on the verge of doing so. Think about when the Wizards traded the 5th pick (even when we knew the actual pick number) for Miller + Foye. We should try to find a team like the Wizards, who are in win now mode, but won't actually be good enough to be contenders when it's all said and done. Or a team that's close to the playoffs, and wants to add a quality player to their rotation to get them over the hump.

Another post coming shortly after I analyze who these teams might be.

[7-Day Dray]

1. I don't expect us to compete much this year. Even if some of our young guys continue to develop and improve, I just can't see this team winning more than 30 games. I think we could very easily end up with a worse record than last year (although no matter what I expect the road record to be slightly better).

2. I am a big fan of stockpiling 1st round draft picks for next year's draft. I think the projected top 15 players are all guys who could end up as big time contributors. I think almost all of next year's lottery would have gone top 3/4 in this draft. I assume we'll have our own lottery pick next season, so hopefully we can add another good, possibly very good, player. But so will 13 other teams. I'd like to try and trade for 1st round picks in 2012, whether they're high lottery, middle of the 1st, or end of the 1st. If we get a couple late 1sts, or even just one, next year would be an ideal time to consolidate draft picks, along with our 2nd rounder perhaps, in order to move up in the draft, hopefully into the lottery.

3. I understand that we currently have 3 rookies, and 4 sophomores (at least 4, I'm not counting N'Diaye), and that our team is very young. Add in next year's 1st rounder and we have 8 guys with very little experience. I'm advocating getting even more 1st rounders for 2012, but obviously I don't want there to be more than 10 guys on our roster who have been in the league less than 2 years. That's why I think we all need to accept that it's okay to trade some of our 7 rookies/sophomores (other than Wall obviously), in order to acquire potential lotto picks in 2012. Even guys like Crawford, who some believe is solid and could end up being a contributing wing on a winning team. There are legitimately 15 guys that should be in next year's draft that are worthy of top 5 picks in normal drafts (aka potential allstars and/or superstars). The more draft picks we can get in next year's draft, the better our chances of landing one or more studs. This is the easiest way to build our team into a title contender. Other than signing a max free agent (think Dwight Howard). That's honestly a pipe dream. Only way it's even a possibility is if we end up with 2 or more great players in the 2012 draft, and Dwight is willing to play with the youngin's. And even then , it's a stretch. This is our opportunity to become title contenders nearly overnight.

I know we're all split on guys like McGee, Blatche, Crawford, Young, etc. and whether they are actually good enough to get a lot of minutes on a championship caliber team, but I'm willing to let pretty much any of them go if it means we can get 2012 1st round picks. Not to mention we'd just tank that much harder and increase the chances of our own pick ending up #1.



Soooo, how do we acquire 2012 1st round picks? Preferably likely lotto picks, obviously. What teams are in the market to deal their pick this early? How much value, if any, do any of our players have right now (outside of Wall)?

Agree. We should try to acquire as many 2012 picks possible. That draft is looking EPIC! Especially if Andre Drummond. Even though he's currently in the Class of 2013, he was originally in the Class of 2011, but reclassified, so he'll probably be able to enter the 2012 Draft if he wants. He's the best big man prospect since Oden.

I believe John Wall was in the same situation as a HS senior, but decided not to pursue it, because he had promised his late father that he would go top college before he passed.

[rockymac52]

So once again, I think we should be trying to acquire 2012 1st round draft picks. I'm about to try and determine potential trade partners, specifically teams that could very realistically end up in the lottery, although they might currently have unrealistic expectations of making the playoffs.

There are a few draft picks that could be traded as a part of past deals obviously, but I'll have to ignore them for the moment, as most are lotto protected anyways. The exception is that the Clippers own Minnesota's 1st no matter what. And Houston most likely will own the Knicks' pick (top 5 protected). For the sake of making this easier, I'm going to ignore any other potential draft pick swaps for the time being.

Teams that are almost definitely making the playoffs this season in the East:
Chicago
Miami
Orlando
Boston
Atlanta

Teams that are almost definitely making the playoffs this season in the West:
Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio
Oklahoma City

So already 9 picks are eliminated, 10 if you add in the Wizards' pick that we'll hopefully be keeping.

Teams that are almost definitely NOT making the playoffs in the East:
(Wizards)
Cleveland
Toronto
Detroit

Teams that are almost definitely NOT making the playoffs in the West:
Sacramento
Golden State
Minnesota (I think their roster is coming together nicely finally, but even if they improve a lot, they'd have to win 30 more games to make the playoffs, seems like too much) *Clippers own this pick*

16 picks eliminated.

Remaining teams in the East (3 playoff spots left):
New York (they expect to make playoffs, as do many fans, solely because of Amare/Melo)
Philadelphia (made it last year, although Iguodala trade rumors)
Indiana (made it last year, competed with Bulls in playoffs, not getting any worse, not rebuilding - see Leonard for Hill trade)
Milwaukee (almost made it last year, not in rebuilding mode, even if they should be)
Charlotte (almost made it last year, treading water)
New Jersey (DWill trade makes it a lot more conceivable that they'd make playoffs, but still building for future somewhat)

If I had to pick I'd say New York, Milwaukee, and Indiana make the playoffs, but it's no sure thing. I think Philadelphia, Indiana, Milwaukee, Charlotte, and New Jersey would all make good trade targets. I think the Nets might interested in acquiring more talent in order to convince DWill to resign. Indiana could use some help up front, and don't seem to be interested in rebuilding, so they could be good options. Philadelphia probably wouldn't be interested in a trade, and such a trade might push them in to the playoffs (or keep them there I suppose). Milwaukee is delusional much like the Wizards a few years ago, and are playing to win now, even though they could be rebuilding much more effectively, so they'd definitely be interested in trading a pick for NBA talent, but it might just help them make the playoffs. Charlotte can never decide if they're rebuilding or not, I think their team is garbage and I'd love to acquire their draft pick for some of our talent, as it won't push them over the edge into the playoffs IMO. So I say aim to trade with Charlotte, New Jersey, Indiana, and Milwaukee mainly, in that order.

Remaining teams in the West (4 playoff spots left):
Denver (if they can resign Nene and Chandler, they'd make the playoffs, but if they don't, they'll be in full rebuild mode I'd suspect, so unlikely a good trade partner)
Portland (Injuries always destroy them, so they're a wild card, but won 48 games without Oden and Roy for a lot of the season, so could easily do it again)
New Orleans (Losing West will hurt, and CP3 trade rumors should be in full swing this season)
Memphis (Good showing in playoffs, younger team with several good pieces, but not quite good enough to truly compete in the West, so maybe interested in acquiring more NBA talent, not sold on them as a playoff team yet IMO)
Houston (Yao is a big question mark, likely a non factor though, team is deep but lacks top end talent needed to win in West, have 2 1st round picks, not sure if they're looking to trade them though)
Phoenix (Nash is only getting older, and they don't seem interested in trading him, could use an extra push to help them get into playoffs, though still no sure bet)
Utah (Fairly talented team IMO, stacked front court, could be looking to trade Jefferson or Millsap, I believe they could make playoffs with this roster, but they'd be happy to add another lotto talent too I think)
Los Angeles Clippers (Finally coming together as a promising team behind Griffin and Bledsoe, 2 potential top 10 picks next year, they're not interested in trading them most likely)

Not sure who I'd pick to make the playoffs, could honestly see any of these teams getting in. As far as potential trade partners, I'd be looking at New Orleans, Houston, and Phoenix primarily.



So all in all, I say we target Charlotte, New Jersey, Indiana, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Houston, and Phoenix.

[Terpman]

I believe Blatche's body is destined to break down earlier in his career than the average NBA player's does. This is based solely on some "inside info" I got from a member of the Wiz's off-season training staff. Apparently, Blatche's off-season workout regimen can be most accurately described as Haynesworth-esque. The guy comes into camp out of shape every off-season.

bull. I hope some anonymous creep goes online and attempts to harm your reputation with some phony hearsay. You're repulsive.

Really Bickerstaff??? Have you not watched this guy over the years? He has a POT BELLY at 23 yrs old!! 6'11 with a GUT!!!! C'mon... take off the Wiz-glasses and see reality. Andray is a complete slacking bum. Period.
I'd like to add a positive caveat to that, but there is none. Dude just doesn't give a ****.

[rockymac52]

I'd like to apologize to anyone who chose to read through my ongoing rant about 2012 1st round draft picks, as well as anyone who had to scroll through all of that while they completely ignored what I had to say. I've got a lot of thoughts and I'm just trying to get them all out here, hopefully when I'm done I'll come up with a good idea or two.

Anyways, next up, I'll be looking into potential deals with those teams I just specified as trade partners.

The way I see it, Wall and our own 2012 1st round pick are the only untouchables. Say what you want about anybody else on our team, I think some guys could end up as solid contributors as well, but I don't think any of them are so special that we shouldn't be open to moving them. Obviously some are more valuable than others, and would require a better deal to let them go. But anyways, here's our actual potential assets to our trade partners.

Andray Blatche (Plenty of us are willing to give him away for scraps, just to see him go, who knows if any other NBA teams want him, but to be fair, he does put up respectable stats, even if he's a moron, lazy bum)

Trevor Booker (Maybe he'll be a quality backup forward one day, but I can't see him being much better than that)

Jordan Crawford (SGs are a dime a dozen in the NBA, and we shouldn't be fooled by his decent PPG, as they came with an incredibly ugly FG% of 39% and an even uglier 24% from 3, not to mention he's 22, so not THAT young)

Rashard Lewis (He's just a contract and a body at this point, and most likely no NBA teams have any interest in him, unless they want to send us a terrible contract back)

JaVale McGee (Again, opinions are split on McGee's future, but I think we'd have to move him in the right deal, probably the most valuable player in a trade on our team other than Wall)

Kevin Seraphin (Not sure how much value he has in a trade, or to us in the future for the matter, definitely a raw project player who might one day end up as a good backup or role playing starter, or might never do anything)

Chris Singleton (Should be a solid wing, although I think Wizards should keep him for defensive purposes)

Jan Vesely (I'm not convinced on Vesely yet, mainly because I haven't actually seen him play other than highlights, but I'm skeptical, and he definitely has some value right now, and it might only take 10 games in the NBA to all but eliminate that value depending on how raw he is)

Nick Young (Assuming he resign him, which is no guarantee, but again, SGs aren't that hard to find, but he's an established NBA player who can score pretty well, and could be a valuable addition to teams in need of a boost to get to the playoffs)

[pineappleheadindc]

Hey Nate,

New trade thread?

[rockymac52]

Of course no one is ever going to read what I write because it ends up on page 99 LOL. Whoops.

Anyways, here's the **** trades I came up with. It's too late and I've thought about this for too long to even consider if these trades are plausible or if we'd even want to do them. But here they are...


Blatche for New Jersey 1st round pick
Blatche for Indiana 1st round pick + James Posey
Blatche for New Orleans 1st round pick
McGee for Houston 1st round pick + New York 1st round pick
McGee for Phoenix 1st round pick + Robin Lopez
Blatche for Phoenix 1st round pick

[dangermouse]

If West signs elsewhere (likely) then NO might go for a Blatche trade just to get a decent PF to play with Paul in hopes he stays there. Being run by the NBA now maybe they dont care wether he stays or goes though.

Phx is still a possibility as well to give Nash a shot.

[Hoopalotta]

3. I understand that we currently have 3 rookies, and 4 sophomores (at least 4, I'm not counting N'Diaye), and that our team is very young. Add in next year's 1st rounder and we have 8 guys with very little experience. I'm advocating getting even more 1st rounders for 2012, but obviously I don't want there to be more than 10 guys on our roster who have been in the league less than 2 years. That's why I think we all need to accept that it's okay to trade some of our 7 rookies/sophomores (other than Wall obviously), in order to acquire potential lotto picks in 2012. Even guys like Crawford, who some believe is solid and could end up being a contributing wing on a winning team.

I do agree that we should and probably need to be willing to consolidate next year in that Bill Simmons "Two quarters and two dimes for a 50 cent piece" type way. Pretty soon, we're going to be tripping over our own prospects with the depth being self defeating.

But I wouldn't limit it entirely to just next year's draft and I'd even be willing to trade out for the right younger guy. For example, if Oklahoma felt that Harden didn't fit with their pay scale with extensions on Westbrook and Ibaka coming, I'd be calling and offering good value.

As to the idea of adding picks, the best way would be to spend: amnesty Rashard and absorb salary from teams around the league who need to purge. However, it might be a little bit tough to find girls who aren't overly ugly that want to dance with us there and it's also worth noting that the CBA could potentially still have the league put an end to one and done guys getting drafted and the 2012 draft is completely wiped out.

So all in all, I say we target Charlotte, New Jersey, Indiana, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Houston, and Phoenix.

I think once you lay this out, we see the practical issues in working this out: very tough fits to get a deal done. If anything, w might be able to get something done during the draft once a team knows their slot. The Wizards also need to protect themselves from absorbing an overly large salary for a pick and then realizing that they just spent $20 million dollars for the 12th pick - Ernie could get fired for that and he knows it. The guys who teams are really going to want to dump are just too expensive to justify it and there might well not be much overlap with the dumpers and the lottery teams. A team like Charlotte isn't going to bite and a few of those teams have no real bad salaries anyway. Looks like a very tall order to force a deal with these guys to where it works for both sides.

I suspect that there will be more opportunities to absorb veterans who can play but are overpaid more than outright BOYD deals. I could also see absorbing some more modest salary for protected future picks so that we have extra mid rounders when our salary starts to go up and we don't have to look for guys like Songaila and Daniels. That would probably be a much easier get than 2012 lottery picks.

[dangermouse]

A question about Hamady: did he see much D-League action last season? if not why not? I am of the opinion that actual game minutes, even in the d-league, are more valuable to a player's development than practise time.

See you in the next thread!

[Hoopalotta]

Larry Coon on that ESPN Ryan Russillo CBA podcast said that the owners are talking about relaxing the trade rules to where the 125% rule could become even up to a 250% rule. That is to say that you could, for example, trade $10 million in salary for up to $25 million incoming.

Maybe they go 200% or 150%, but it sounds like a general slackening here as the current rules are counter productive, especially with anything close to a hard cap. Though I will say I'm not really sure how that would work with a hard or hardish cap as the 125% only is in play if you're over the cap.

[AnotherFinn]

A question about Hamady: did he see much D-League action last season? if not why not? I am of the opinion that actual game minutes, even in the d-league, are more valuable to a player's development than practise time.

See you in the next thread!

11games 202minutes total (all in january, should have gone there sooner and not hurt his leg... )