March 13 Wizards-Mavericks GT

[dobrojim]

BUT.... Bad shot Jordan F'ing Crawford!

CCJ, this pretty much sums up his entire game.

QFT

[dobrojim]

Book bricks two FTs but Singleton bails him out. Chris is improving somewhat.

I don't think those guys are 'wasted' draft picks. They're doing OK for where
they were picked. The open question is how hard will they work to get better.
Book has already shown improvement in one offseason.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wall leads this team in +/-. That's why he gets the benefit of the doubt. "Whipping boy" is near the bottom in +/-, so maybe Randy Wittman isn't the idiot you guys think he is.

1. One tool you can use to compare players: Wins Produced and Points over Par

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F13%2F2012

Points over par is more conclusive and accurate than +/-
It factors in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and normalizes by position.

2. A second system you can use to compare players: Nivek's (as of 3/12)

Weekly update using my PER-like system. I tweaked my formula just a bit (minor adjustment to how I was handling rebounding). 100 = average. Above 100 means better than average; below 100 means less productive than average. Replacement level is 70. Last week's number in parentheses.

- McGee 118 (120)
- Wall 116 (103)
- Booker 104 (106)
- Mack 95 (100)
- Mason 88 (68)
- Seraphin 86 (71)
- Blatche 66 (60)
- Singleton 61 (58)
- Young 61 (61)
- Crawford 58 (63)
- Lewis 52 (50)
- Vesely 30 (14)
- Evans 27 (27)

3. If you want to compare using PER, WS, WS/48, Ortg, Drtg or other measures on baskeball-reference:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ljo01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eja01.html

Just offering perspective on comparative tools. There are a lot of them. Not all make McGee look bad like +/- . Likewise, many don't make Wall look great.

As far as comments on coaching last night, Crawford and Blatche did many things wrong yesterday. I can understand if Blatche is being shopped why he was out there. I cannot understand how Crawford is allowed to do that. Also, when one player destroys another, change something. Trap Beaubois or bring in a better defender, Mack.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dirk putting on a show. Wow

For whatever reason, I think Seraphin can cover him as well as any other Wizard.

I was wondering how Chris woulda done. Put the shorter Book on Matrix,
put the slightly longer Singleton on Dirk. Probably wouldn't have mattered...

Yeah, jim, I don't think there are any answers for Dirk. I think Singleton would cover him better than Booker, though.

[tontoz]

Wall leads this team in +/-. That's why he gets the benefit of the doubt. "Whipping boy" is near the bottom in +/-, so maybe Randy Wittman isn't the idiot you guys think he is.

Where are you getting your numbers from? I have Seraphin leading the team in +/-. I wonder how much of that is due to garbage time/small sample size and how much of that is due to his ability on the court.

http://www.82games.com/1112/1112WAS.HTM

I don't count Turiaf and NDyaie for obvious reasons.

That popcornmachine link is outdated, sashae.

You are looking at Roland Rating, not +/-. The on/off with the red heading is +/- and is part of the Roland Rating. The other part is the players PER minus opposing PER.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

PopcornMachine has JaVale dead last at -10.6, with Wall second at -10.5 (on a per-game basis.)

I can believe that.

*(But like tontoz, I noticed it says 17 games when the season is 41 games played so far--it is outdated).

No way Wall is first.

[nate33]

Man, McGee's on/off differential is epically bad. I don't think I've ever seen a major-minute starter with such a bad differential this late into the season.

That said, I'm uncomfortable with these on/off ratings because of the extent of our suckiness. This team plays a lot of garbage time when we're down 15+ and the other team is loafing. As a result, our garbage time squad has incredibly misleading on/off numbers. Mason, Seraphin and Mack are certainly not as effective as their on/off numbers suggest.

I'd love to see an on/off number summary where they disregard all numbers produced when a team has a 15+ point lead.

[sashae]

Sorry about the Popcornmachine link -- their per-game info is up to date, I didn't notice they hadn't updated the summaries.

I think a lot of the beating JaVale takes is that the mistakes he makes are just idiotic, things that he shouldn't be doing 4 years into the league -- and he'll be doing it multiple times per game (I believe we've taken to calling them WTFs?)

Let's say JaVale averages 2.5 WTFs per game. Nick and Craw probably close, but I don't think the expectations are quite as high, since JaVale /also/ does a couple of totally exceptional things per game.

Wall doesn't have many WTFs, his issues are more related to effort (especially on defense or when he doesn't have the ball) -- that doesn't excuse him by any stretch of the imagination, but as a coach I imagine the mistakes that JaVale makes are a hell of a lot more frustrating.