Game Thread: Wiz at NJ: Nene's Debut - Wed 3/21

[fishercob]

Man...Nene and Serphain might just crush our tank chances. Serphain looked clueless 2 months ago...what an amazing turnaround

This board gets way way way too up for wins and way way way too low for losses.

I've posted on this phenomenon previously, but here it is again. In a very real sense, the extreme highs and lows after wins and losses are a result of what fans are seeing. In wins this season, the Wizards have statistically resembled a 67-win team -- one of the 10 best teams in league history. In losses, the Wizards have statistically resembled a 10-win team -- one of the 10 worst teams in league history.

You mention this a lot and I've been meaning to ask you about it. Did the 72-win Bulls look like a 50 win team in their losses? 40?

Basically, is it at all an usual phenomenon for a team to look like world beaters when they win and suckity suck suckers when they lose?

[Zonkerbl]

It's a tautology. The 72 win bulls lost very rarely. So if you look at their subsample of losses, their 10 worst games of the season, they will look like crap in those games. The zards win very rarely, so if you take a sample of their ten best games (where they won) they will look like the 65 win Supersonics in those games.

So yes, if you look at the subsample of games that have been lost, the team will look like a 10-20 win team. If you look at the subsample of games won, the team will look like a 65-72 win team. For any team you look at.

[Nivek]

In wins, the 72-win Bulls looked like a 73-win team (73.3 to be precise). In losses they looked like a 21-win team (20.6 to be exact).

When I looked at the entire league for the 2010-11 season the "looked great in wins" effect ranged from 72.4 for Miami and Orlando to 56.6 for Cleveland. The "looked awful in losses" effect ranged from a high of 21.5 for Houston to a low of 8.5 for Cleveland. Full chart below. League average was to look like a 66-win team in wins and like a 16-win team in losses.

Overall, these numbers don't mean a much (if anything) when it comes to analyzing team strength. I first did this as a way to analyze fan reactions -- the wildly different reactions to winning and losing. The "this team is turning the corner, if we just add a SF with a 3pt shot we could be contenders" to "this team is awful and needs to be blown up" reactions.

Code: Select all

TEAM    PYTW    PYTL
MIA     72.4    21.1
ORL     72.4    18.1
LAL     71.7    17.2
IND     71.2    14.1
CHI     70.0    21.0
PHI     69.2    18.5
MIN     69.0    16.2
BOS     68.9    21.2
NOH     68.1    17.2
MIL     68.0    15.5
DEN     67.1    18.3
SAS     67.1    12.6
MEM     66.6    19.7
ATL     66.3    11.9
POR     66.1    15.3
HOU     65.6    21.5
LAC     65.5    16.5
UTA     65.5    10.0
TOR     65.3    14.0
NYK     63.7    19.1
WAS     63.6    13.1
DET     63.3    12.9
SAC     62.8    17.2
PHO     62.4    15.2
DAL     62.1    18.1
GSW     61.9    13.9
NJN     60.9    12.9
OKC     60.7    16.8
CHB     59.5    13.6
CLE     56.6    8.5


[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Humphries' block on Wall was pretty impressive, fish. He snatched a rebound away from Serarphin and came over the top of other Wizards to get boards.

I agree, fish, the toughest competition on the Nets front court was Kris Humprhies. He has improved and is a good basketball player now. I wonder if the guy juices in the offseason. He looks pretty ripped and he plays with a serious chip.

About Hump, he actually does a lot of MMA off season. He started a few years ago which coincided with his sudden change of fortune and up turn in basketball play.

He's an absolute dog on the boards and has really improved his mid range jumper. He's a very good player but someone I dont want the Nets to lock into a long term contract for big money.

He's a perfect 1st big off the bench energy guy to be honest and like I said I'd be prepared to let him walk as a Nets fan in the summer because I believe he will get some very good offers.

Congrats on signing Nene, I love his game and is a real player to build around. I would love to see the Wizards get a legit centre to let Nene finally play his true position of PF and not C. He would destroy most PF's every night, it would be a joy to watch.

Good luck for the rest of the season!!

Sorry to just now see this post, N Ireland Nets.

Humphries is an MMA guy? Now it all makes sense. He really does bring great energy and toughness. Now I get it. I thought Kim K made the dude want to hurt somebody.

Also, maybe I know now why she got that divorce. Fear.

[fugop]

This is interesting, though I'm not clear on the meaning. Out of curiosity, with your data on hand, what team has looked best when losing?

In wins, the 72-win Bulls looked like a 73-win team (73.3 to be precise). In losses they looked like a 21-win team (20.6 to be exact).

When I looked at the entire league for the 2010-11 season the "looked great in wins" effect ranged from 72.4 for Miami and Orlando to 56.6 for Cleveland. The "looked awful in losses" effect ranged from a high of 21.5 for Houston to a low of 8.5 for Cleveland. Full chart below. League average was to look like a 66-win team in wins and like a 16-win team in losses.

Overall, these numbers don't mean a much (if anything) when it comes to analyzing team strength. I first did this as a way to analyze fan reactions -- the wildly different reactions to winning and losing. The "this team is turning the corner, if we just add a SF with a 3pt shot we could be contenders" to "this team is awful and needs to be blown up" reactions.

Code: Select all

TEAM    PYTW    PYTL
MIA     72.4    21.1
ORL     72.4    18.1
LAL     71.7    17.2
IND     71.2    14.1
CHI     70.0    21.0
PHI     69.2    18.5
MIN     69.0    16.2
BOS     68.9    21.2
NOH     68.1    17.2
MIL     68.0    15.5
DEN     67.1    18.3
SAS     67.1    12.6
MEM     66.6    19.7
ATL     66.3    11.9
POR     66.1    15.3
HOU     65.6    21.5
LAC     65.5    16.5
UTA     65.5    10.0
TOR     65.3    14.0
NYK     63.7    19.1
WAS     63.6    13.1
DET     63.3    12.9
SAC     62.8    17.2
PHO     62.4    15.2
DAL     62.1    18.1
GSW     61.9    13.9
NJN     60.9    12.9
OKC     60.7    16.8
CHB     59.5    13.6
CLE     56.6    8.5


[Nivek]

From 2010-2011, it was Houston by a hair. Haven't run the numbers for the whole league this season. Because ultimately, these numbers don't mean much of anything -- except as a kinda-sorta explanation for fan highs and lows.