Okafor Question

[Nivek]

With Okafor opting in. Assuming Ariza might opt in as well, how does that effect the Wizards chances to resign Webster?

Wizards will be limited to the MLE as a maximum they can pay Webster. If someone offers an MLE+ deal, it's likely Webster would depart.

[nate33]

With Okafor opting in. Assuming Ariza might opt in as well, how does that effect the Wizards chances to resign Webster?

The Wizards are over the cap and have no Bird Rights for Webster. Basically, the only exception available to them to resign Webster is the MLE. With the MLE, the most they can offer is a 4-year deal starting at $5.15M with 7.5% raises, which would total $22.9M over 4 years.

I think that will be enough. My guess is that Webster would stay here even if someone else offered slightly more (say 4 years, $25M). And I don't think anybody is going to come along and offer more than that.

My guess is that we resign Webster to a 3-year deal at about $4.25M per year.

[penbeast0]

Thank God for that. I'd be unhappy to pay Webster any more than that based on a reasonably mediocre career leading up to this one good year in a contract year -- I've seen this scenario play out badly too many times -- and I have very little faith in Ernie's ability to judge the worth of talent.

[fishercob]

Maybe there have been discussions between the Wizards and Okafor about an extension this summer and that explains the Crawford trade a little more.

Say Okafor opts out and re-signs for 4 years, 36M with max annual decreases (so his cap numbers are $10M, $9.25M, $8.55M, and $7.9M). That new deal creates $4.5M of cap space this summer (and moving Crawford created $2.16M) and should give them enough space to keep Webster without using the MLE.

I think Okafor has a pretty good shot at being worth that kind of money throughout the contract.

[nate33]

Maybe there have been discussions between the Wizards and Okafor about an extension this summer and that explains the Crawford trade a little more.

Say Okafor opts out and re-signs for 4 years, 36M with max annual decreases (so his cap numbers are $10M, $9.25M, $8.55M, and $7.9M). That new deal creates $4.5M of cap space this summer (and moving Crawford created $2.16M) and should give them enough space to keep Webster without using the MLE.

I think Okafor has a pretty good shot at being worth that kind of money throughout the contract.

Of what advantage would it be to sign Webster without using the MLE?

Also your scenario (which I believe lowballs Okafor) only generates $3.6M in cap room (after accounting for our draft pick). You would actually have to scrap the whole descending salary part and give him an increasing salary if you wanted to get close to MLE money. You also limit a great deal of flexibility in 2014.

The best move here is to let Okafor play out his contract at $14.5M and sign Webster with the MLE. In 2014, assuming Webster is paid $4.5M and Vesely is dumped, we will have $15.8M in cap room (minus a little bit if our 2013 2nd rounders stick around, minus a bit more if we keep Seraphin or Booker). With that cap room, we sign the best available free agent who is the best fit, which may in fact be Okafor.

[fishercob]

Points taken, nate.

[Rafael122]

With Okafor opting in. Assuming Ariza might opt in as well, how does that effect the Wizards chances to resign Webster?

The Wizards are over the cap and have no Bird Rights for Webster. Basically, the only exception available to them to resign Webster is the MLE. With the MLE, the most they can offer is a 4-year deal starting at $5.15M with 7.5% raises, which would total $22.9M over 4 years.

I think that will be enough. My guess is that Webster would stay here even if someone else offered slightly more (say 4 years, $25M). And I don't think anybody is going to come along and offer more than that.

My guess is that we resign Webster to a 3-year deal at about $4.25M per year.

Do the Wizards have to use the entire MLE to get Webster to return or can they use a portion of that? Webster is not a $5 million a year player. This guy was a fringe NBA player prior to this year, signed on the cheap. You're telling me he more than doubled his value in one season? I'd like to have him back, sure, but $5 mil a year for him?

[Nivek]

Yes, the Wizards can use only a portion of the MLE to sign Webster. Forget the number on the MLE for a second. A full MLE contract would consume ~8.8% of the salary cap. Webster's total production this year was about 14.5% of what the average team is producing this season.

[Severn Hoos]

The best move here is to let Okafor play out his contract at $14.5M and sign Webster with the MLE. In 2014, assuming Webster is paid $4.5M and Vesely is dumped, we will have $15.8M in cap room (minus a little bit if our 2013 2nd rounders stick around, minus a bit more if we keep Seraphin or Booker). With that cap room, we sign the best available free agent who is the best fit, which may in fact be Okafor.

Agree with nate here, and we may luck into a few circumstances this summer:

* The negotiations with Webster should be pretty straightforward. They may try to get him for something less than the MLE, and I suspect Webster declines. Ernie goes to the MLE (maybe 3 years instead of 4?). If Webster declines again, wish him well. Not much to think about, no hurt feelings.

* As noted, Jan's higher cap # for Year 4 probably means they decline his option this summer. This makes him a nice mid-range expiring for ballast in a larger in-season trade.

* Okafor and Ariza opting in make them huge expiring deals that are actually productive - thus, attractive to contending teams. The Wiz can start the season and see if it looks like the Playoffs are in the cards. If so, ride it out and see how far they can go (with the added benefit of Wall gaining late-season and post-season experience, which was the original plan for this year). If things look grim - or they get an "offer they can't refuse", send out either or both of Okariza for a player and/or pick that can be part of the foundation for the future.

That takes us into next year with the 6 NBA quality players we now have (Wall, Beal, Webster, Ariza, Nene, and Okafor), plus this year's pick. Everyone else is fringe and could be dealt without much consideration. If one of the "projects" (other than Vesely) proves to be worth keeping, they can sign next summer for backup money. And if not, they go their own way and the Wiz have cap space. I'm loathe to give credit that this was actually the plan all along, but they may luck into some favorable situations after all.

[coda: Yes, I understand the coulda woulda shoulda game, which usually focuses on Ryan Anderson as the one that got away. Well, it would have required not just Shard's cap space, but for Anderson to agree - and for the Magic to agree. Maybe he didn't want to play in DC. Maybe the Magic didn't want to trade him in the Division. There were no guarantees there. And I do believe that Wall's emergence has been facilitated - or at least assisted - by the veteran presence on the team, even before reading that article about Okafor's heart-to-heart with him. If so, a mature and proven Wall >>>> anything they would have gotten with cap space, including draft picks, Anderson, or Ilyasova.]

[DCZards]

[coda: Yes, I understand the coulda woulda shoulda game, which usually focuses on Ryan Anderson as the one that got away. Well, it would have required not just Shard's cap space, but for Anderson to agree - and for the Magic to agree. Maybe he didn't want to play in DC. Maybe the Magic didn't want to trade him in the Division. There were no guarantees there. And I do believe that Wall's emergence has been facilitated - or at least assisted - by the veteran presence on the team, even before reading that article about Okafor's heart-to-heart with him. If so, a mature and proven Wall >>>> anything they would have gotten with cap space, including draft picks, Anderson, or Ilyasova.]

Agree with this. My problem with those who insist that EG missed out on Anderson when he traded for Okafor/Ariza is that they act as if the Zards would have automatically gotten Anderson if it were not for the trade. That's just not so.

And, yes, Okafor is exactly the kind of smart, hard-working, mature player/leader that Wall and the other youngins needed to be around and learn from. I love Wall's acknowledgement that 'Meka is a team leader and someone who he respects/listens to. The presence of Okafor, Ariza, Nene and Webster has taken a lot of the leadership responsibility off of the shoulders of JW, which I think has helped to make Wall a better, more relaxed player and person.