Projecting the NBA: Washington Wizards

[Lanky Gunner]

http://nbacouchside.com/2013/09/11/proj ... n-wizards/

John Wall projects to be quite good, by the projected xRAPM numbers, basically repeating his performance from last year, only with more minutes played. If Wall can actually make a leap ahead of his performance last year, the Wizards will more firmly entrench themselves as a playoff team. Two of Washington’s more important players, Nene and Emeka Okafor, both project to either regress and/or decline, with Nene having the bigger expected dropoff. These declines somewhat offset the expected increase in minutes for Wall, and here we are. The Wizards may find themselves on the outside looking in on the playoffs, again.

[dobrojim]

I may be an eternal Wizards optimist but I don't understand why we should
automatically assume Nene AND Okafor will both 'regress/decline', at least
not to a significant degree. Nene figures to be better just from resting/rehabbing
and being healthy. Okafor takes excellent care of himself, isn't that old (31)
and was reasonably solid last year. I'm expecting about the same per min numbers
for him.

Assuming Wall stays healthy (70-75 games minimum), he is primed for a breakout
season. And the Wizards should make the playoffs.

[Nivek]

I'll do my projections closer to the season. Eyeballing these projections, I'm dubious. I question the minutes projection portion. More than 3100 minutes are allocated to Seraphin, Vesely and Singleton -- if that happened this season (assuming they play similar to how they did last season), it would be grounds for firing the entire coaching staff.

Where's Harrington?

If healthy, Nene should be more productive this season than he was last year. The last couple times he was in good health for extended stretches, he played outstanding ball. Health has been a challenge the past couple years, and likely will be going forward because of his age. Still, there's a reasonable chance he'll be available for more games this season, and there's zero reason to think he'll be less productive.

Last season was a pretty standard year for Okafor -- my guess is that he'll be in the "about the same" range for another year.

Big key for this squad to make the playoffs: avoid major injuries to Wall or Nene. They can get by without other guys. Not those two.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wall rated a 9 in this guy's system but I doubt the rating was peak John Wall of February-April. I think Wall is probably an 11 or 12.

Nene was a 7.5 but I think he's at least a 9.5 or 10 when healthy. I think Nene will surprise and be largely healthy. I won't be very shocked if Nene has an all star type season. Beal is IMO going to make a near quantum leap.

I think 38 wins is well below what actual wins will be.