Official Thread - Wiz vs Mavs (11/19/14)

[Kanyewest]

I think Ellis being an inefficient scorer aggregate is kind of dumb argument mostly because Dallas as a team is the #1 offense. In fact, the #2 offense last week was Cleveland and the difference between Dallas and Cleveland was equal to Cleveland and the #15 defense. No, I don't think you can plug in just anybody in the top 10- (Ben McLemore) for Dallas to remain in the 10.

BTW, if you you look at Player Efficiency where Ellis was #7 last season and #9 this year among shooting guards.

If you are talking about PER, it rewards inefficient scoring. I heard that before i started posting here and Nivek confirmed it.

Last year Ellis ranked 34th in TS% among 2s. Not impressed, even though that is better than normal for him.

And let's not forget defense.

You give a link of stats of Hollinger's stats and that's what I'm going to use. Heck Ellis is consistently in the top 6 in Estimated Wins Added and Value Added according to Hollinger's over the past 4 years. Now I don't believe that Ellis is anywhere that valuable though.

[tontoz]

doubt post

[tontoz]

You give a link of stats of Hollinger's stats and that's what I'm going to use. Heck Ellis is consistently in the top 6 in Estimated Wins Added and Value Added according to Hollinger's over the past 4 years. Now I don't believe that Ellis is anywhere that valuable though.

I was quoting the individual stats. When you start talking about PER then you have to take into account the formula that is used to calculate it.

Bottom line is that Ellis shoots a lot with suspect efficiency and brings little else to the table. If you have any stats that show Ellis does anything well other than score feel free to share.

[Kanyewest]

You give a link of stats of Hollinger's stats and that's what I'm going to use. Heck Ellis is consistently in the top 6 in Estimated Wins Added and Value Added according to Hollinger's over the past 4 years. Now I don't believe that Ellis is anywhere that valuable though.

I was quoting the individual stats. When you start talking about PER then you have to take into account the formula that is used to calculate it.

Bottom line is that Ellis shoots a lot with suspect efficiency and brings little else to the table. If you have any stats that show Ellis does anything well other than score feel free to share.

For this season, Ellis's efficiency is pretty good for how much he shoots. For shooting guards that have at least 10 field goal attempts per game and play at least 26 minutes per game, Ellis is 8th. http://bkref.com/tiny/mnfZC

Here's the list of those players
Kevin Martin
Klay Thompson
Evan Fournier
Wesley Mathews
Jamal Crawford
Dwayne Wade
James Harden

Klay Thompson and Wesley Matthews are the only guys that hold their own defensively IMO (maybe Fournier does too, I haven't watched Orlando as much). Having defensive bigs like Tyson Chandler certainly help mask Ellis's weaknesses.

[Nivek]

Tontoz is correct -- PER rewards players for taking shots. I don't remember the exact break-even point for efficiency, but it's around 30%. Hollinger has asserted it's around 40%, but I haven't seen his math, and my own math put it around 30% (I think it was 27.5%, but don't hold me to that).

If Ellis is high in Wins Added or whatever, it's likely because he's played 3000+ minutes the past couple seasons. He was top 60 in my stuff in estimated total wins, but was 2nd in total minutes.

In my metric, Ellis has a career PPA of 104 (where average is 100 and higher is better). His best season was his third -- he had a 136. Last season: 102. In my last PPA update (last week), he was at 131 this season.

[Kanyewest]

Tontoz is correct -- PER rewards players for taking shots. I don't remember the exact break-even point for efficiency, but it's around 30%. Hollinger has asserted it's around 40%, but I haven't seen his math, and my own math put it around 30% (I think it was 27.5%, but don't hold me to that).

If Ellis is high in Wins Added or whatever, it's likely because he's played 3000+ minutes the past couple seasons. He was top 60 in my stuff in estimated total wins, but was 2nd in total minutes.

In my metric, Ellis has a career PPA of 104 (where average is 100 and higher is better). His best season was his third -- he had a 136. Last season: 102. In my last PPA update (last week), he was at 131 this season.

Yup, Ellis hasn't been that good in his career especially with the Bucks. I was surprised that Ellis was able to get that much from the Mavs with his contract, but I have to say that the signing has worked out well for Dallas.

The biggest difference I think though is that he doesn't have to take as many isolation shots with Dirk around and now it may even be less this season with Chandler Parsons.

[tontoz]

So far this season Ellis's efficiency has been better, but we are still in SSST teritory.