Gortat traded to LA Clippers for Austin Rivers

[Shoe]

DeAndre is about to sign with the Mavs. They have Gortat to take his place. Cousins may go to Lakers. We could be looking at Mahinmi to man center as a starter. This can't be good. I don't think the game has changed to the point that a center position is *that* irrelevant. A non-scoring, 6 fouls/20 min center is not the answer.

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well it's too late now. He's making $16 mil so he's gonna start. Maybe his mindset will change and he'll work harder on his game now that he's not coming off the bench.

[dckingsfan]

DeAndre is about to sign with the Mavs. They have Gortat to take his place. Cousins may go to Lakers. We could be looking at Mahinmi to man center as a starter. This can't be good. I don't think the game has changed to the point that a center position is *that* irrelevant. A non-scoring, 6 fouls/20 min center is not the answer.

well it's too late now. He's making $16 mil so he's gonna start. Maybe his mindset will change and he'll work harder on his game now that he's not coming off the bench.

Yep, he is our started now. I also don't the reason he wasn't working on his game was because he was working on getting healthy. And he seems to be that from all accounts. He more than doubled his minutes from the previous year. Also, he did make huge strides in his FT%. I just don't see how he can "work on" the parts of his game that he needs to fix.

I see his problem as threefold in no particular order of importance.

1) His rebounding is slowly getting worse - probably due to the natural aging process. The number of steals he is picking up is dropping - probably for the same reason.

2) He is a bad choice to run the pick 'n roll with Wall because, he has bad hands and turns the ball over and a high rate (nearly twice the rate of Gortat). So, what do you do with him on the offensive end? Teams can play 4 on 5.

2) He is fouling at an increasing rate as he ages. If the trend continues - it will be tough to keep him on the court and who is that small ball center we are going to use? Morris?

Code: Select all

Season      MP    PF   PF/5 MIN
2007-08     23     4   0.87
2009-10    165    32   0.97
2010-11    488   105   1.08
2011-12   1139   176   0.77
2012-13   1322   201   0.76
2013-14   1248   207   0.83
2014-15   1146   172   0.75
2015-16   1816   220   0.61
2016-17    555    90   0.81
2017-18   1145   230   1.00


[nate33]

If you pay attention to Jerry Brewer, whose metamorphosis into the Wizards mouthpiece appears in the final stages, Washington has no intention to address the center position and will instead focus on "catching up" with the rest of the league.

The Wizards don’t necessarily need another center. That kind of conventional thought is what has them playing catch up. Characterize the situation more as the roster needs to account for a few traditional center services to play small ball effectively. There are four primary areas: rebounding, screening/physical presence, rim protection and points in the paint.

Right now, consider Mahinmi the starting center. That could change in free agency, but the Wizards seem okay with Mahinmi playing 20-ish minutes a night. He isn’t a great shot blocker, but he’s a definite upgrade as a rim protector. That’s his greatest value. He won’t score much, but his .565 shooting percentage in two seasons in D.C. shows he has been efficient with his limited opportunities. He is a good screener. He is solid in the pick and roll. For a little less than half the game, he can be serviceable.

Ahahahahahaha! Good screener?!? Dude picks up an offensive foul every 10 minutes while setting screens.

That said, the way to interpret this statement is: "the Wizards are unwilling to go deeper into luxtax territory to address the center position. What you see is what you get."

[nate33]

I'd rate the trade a C-

Positives:

We didn't give up an asset.
Gortat remaining in DC was no longer a feasible option.
Rivers has an expiring deal.
Rivers best attribute is his shot creation ability. He's actually a decent ISO player so this will theoretically help the 2nd unit with creating shots.
Rivers is SG or SF in smallball situations so he takes J. Meeks' role.

Negatives:

We no longer have a starting C - but I'd argue we didn't have one anyways.
Gortat was the better player in his role than Rivers in his specified role.
Rivers isn't very good and is an absolute disaster on defense.
Coach Brooks may see Rivers as a passable option at the 1, which would be a huge mistake.
Coach Brooks may see Rivers as a better option to Sato in general, which again would be a huge mistake.

Overall:

The move is ok if:

Rivers is strictly seen as a 2/3 backup who doesn't get more than 15-20 minutes a night. I see him as an upgrade over Meeks - not as big an upgrade as I would like - but one nonetheless.

The move is a disaster if:

Rivers steals minutes from Sato and becomes our 6th man or worse, has to start for any significant amount of time.

I would have held out for something better --- and potentially offered a buyout to Gortat as the season got closer if a deal didn't materialize.

But IMO, Ernie could of and has done worse!

Good analysis. My only addition is that, come the Trade Deadline, contending teams are more likely to be in need of a guard rather than a center as they prep for the likelihood of more smallball in the playoffs. Rivers could be a useful trade asset, or at least as a guy we could trade while taking back a smaller expiring deal and save luxtax.

Basically, the Grunfeld turned Gortat, a guy with absolutely no trade appeal, into a guy who might might be movable for some small return or cap savings.

Overall, this trade probably makes us a bit worse. Gortat was definitely better than Rivers last season. But Gortat will be worse next year, and Rivers possibly a slight bit better. So next year, the difference between the two might be fairly small. But since Gortat had to be moved, I'm not really surprised that this was all that we could get in return.

[nate33]

Jesus, this is a Meh? thread for me. We got nothing but did not lose much. Not like we are going to be worth a **** next few years anyways. Guys crying over spilled rotten **** milk. Get the eff over it.

The bottom line is that we traded an expiring for an expiring. Even if the return was bad, it really doesn't make much difference in the long term. I suppose there is at least some remote chance for an upside surprise out of Rivers, whereas with Gortat, we knew we were going to have a declining player who was just barely hanging on as a serviceable defender and could possibly have fallen off a cliff in terms of defensive production.

[nate33]

Here are the expiring salaries in the range of both players:

Marcin Gortat WAS $13,565,218
Wilson Chandler DEN $12,800,562
Nikola Vucevic ORL $12,750,000
Austin Rivers LAC $12,650,000
Jeremy Lin BRK $12,516,746
Nikola Mirotic NOP $12,500,000
Kemba Walker CHO $12,000,000
Zach Randolph SAC $11,692,308

I could literally justify trading for any of the other players on the list - in some case it might have taken a small incentive. But to give up one of the more productive players on the list and get the worst back...so EG.

What people do not see is that the super max is a horrible deal. Instead of trading to appease John Wall the Wizards need to be trying to trade John Wall

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I'm holding out hope that LA acquires Lebron and either PG or Kawhi, and is then willing to trade Ball for Wall. It makes sense for both sides. We reload for a window a bit further down the road while solving all of our long term luxtax problems. LA gets an established top tier PG whom they'll be willing to exceed the luxtax to retain once his salary balloons.

[nate33]

With so few teams in need of a center, and so many interesting center prospects out there in free agency including Noel, Favors, Cousins and Dwight, there is at least a non-zero possibility that one of those guys might choose to play here for the vet minimum or a bit more just to showcase themselves for the free agency bonanza in 2019 when so many teams will have cap room.

[dckingsfan]

Here are the expiring salaries in the range of both players:

Marcin Gortat WAS $13,565,218
Wilson Chandler DEN $12,800,562
Nikola Vucevic ORL $12,750,000
Austin Rivers LAC $12,650,000
Jeremy Lin BRK $12,516,746
Nikola Mirotic NOP $12,500,000
Kemba Walker CHO $12,000,000
Zach Randolph SAC $11,692,308

I could literally justify trading for any of the other players on the list - in some case it might have taken a small incentive. But to give up one of the more productive players on the list and get the worst back...so EG.

What people do not see is that the super max is a horrible deal. Instead of trading to appease John Wall the Wizards need to be trying to trade John Wall

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I'm holding out hope that LA acquires Lebron and either PG or Kawhi, and is then willing to trade Ball for Wall. It makes sense for both sides. We reload for a window a bit further down the road while solving all of our long term luxtax problems. LA gets an established top tier PG whom they'll be willing to exceed the luxtax to retain once his salary balloons.

Watch out - Dat incoming (just kidding Dat).

I like this but as Dat points out - do you trust EG to go the right direction with the rebuild. BTW, it would need to be Lebron or Kawhi now. Looks like PG is staying put.

But, I would rather have Ball and the baggage (dad) and see the ball move then watch Wall regress to his ball pounding at this point. But that is just me.

[dckingsfan]

With so few teams in need of a center, and so many interesting center prospects out there in free agency including Noel, Favors, Cousins and Dwight, there is at least a non-zero possibility that one of those guys might choose to play here for the vet minimum or a bit more just to showcase themselves for the free agency bonanza in 2019 when so many teams will have cap room.

That is totally what we have to count on. And is there a S4 in that same boat?

[closg00]

With so few teams in need of a center, and so many interesting center prospects out there in free agency including Noel, Favors, Cousins and Dwight, there is at least a non-zero possibility that one of those guys might choose to play here for the vet minimum or a bit more just to showcase themselves for the free agency bonanza in 2019 when so many teams will have cap room.

That is totally what we have to count on. And is there a S4 in that same boat?

Agree with Nate, this was a trade Ernie had to take and it's an expiring contract. Be thankful he didn't attach a future 2nd rounder.

[FAH1223]

With so few teams in need of a center, and so many interesting center prospects out there in free agency including Noel, Favors, Cousins and Dwight, there is at least a non-zero possibility that one of those guys might choose to play here for the vet minimum or a bit more just to showcase themselves for the free agency bonanza in 2019 when so many teams will have cap room.

That is totally what we have to count on. And is there a S4 in that same boat?

Anthony Tolliver would be a perfect fit... some of the other guys here floated him around.

But it looks like FO is dead set on keeping Mike Scott, smh.

[JAR69]

What people do not see is that the super max is a horrible deal. Instead of trading to appease John Wall the Wizards need to be trying to trade John Wall

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I'm holding out hope that LA acquires Lebron and either PG or Kawhi, and is then willing to trade Ball for Wall. It makes sense for both sides. We reload for a window a bit further down the road while solving all of our long term luxtax problems. LA gets an established top tier PG whom they'll be willing to exceed the luxtax to retain once his salary balloons.

Watch out - Dat incoming (just kidding Dat).

I like this but as Dat points out - do you trust EG to go the right direction with the rebuild. BTW, it would need to be Lebron or Kawhi now. Looks like PG is staying put.

But, I would rather have Ball and the baggage (dad) and see the ball move then watch Wall regress to his ball pounding at this point. But that is just me.

I've been onboard the Wall-Ball trade for some time now. With PG and CP off the market, and Ball having a torn meniscus, we may in a position to get a particularly good haul for Wall despite his supermax if LA needs to give Lebron an all-star to play with. I would offer Wall/Jason Smith for Ball/Kuzma/Deng (and maybe a draft pick). That leaves LA plenty of room to sign Lebron, and either retain Randle or sign Cousins, and add another short term piece, like Redick. Wizards still have luxtax problems this year, but should be able to avoid the long term issues.

That leaves something like:

Ball/Sato
Beal/Rivers/Brown
Porter/Oubre/Brown
Kuzma/Scott
Mahinmi/Morris

A couple of trades might (Sato?) might net us a better center.

[WallToWall]

I've been onboard the Wall-Ball trade for some time now. With PG and CP off the market, and Ball having a torn meniscus, we may in a position to get a particularly good haul for Wall despite his supermax if LA needs to give Lebron an all-star to play with. I would offer Wall/Jason Smith for Ball/Kuzma/Deng (and maybe a draft pick). That leaves LA plenty of room to sign Lebron, and either retain Randle or sign Cousins, and add another short term piece, like Redick. Wizards still have luxtax problems this year, but should be able to avoid the long term issues.

That leaves something like:

Ball/Sato
Beal/Rivers/Brown
Porter/Oubre/Brown
Kuzma/Scott
Mahinmi/Morris

A couple of trades might (Sato?) might net us a better center.

Ball (his dad and brothers) will bring us a circus act to the Wizards. We dont need all that drama. On the basketball side, Ball is overrated. He will not amount to more than a slightly above average guard. We dont trade Wall for all that. Nobody wants to trade for Ball because of the drama. Nobody wants Deng because of the $$$$. Kuzma is a good young talent. But we will need much more than that for Wall.

[JAR69]

I think Ball has a decent chance to be a very good PG, and some chance to be all-star level. It all depends on his ability to improve his shot (which I think he can do). We shall see. I agree Wall is now - and is likely to continue to be - a better overall player. But his contract after this season is crippling, and this may be the last chance to trade him for any value. In the Lakers, you have one of the few teams who needs a top level PG, could reasonably pay for Wall's contract, and has incentive to do so (help GM Lebron win immediately). There really isn't anyone else in the league like that. And while Deng's contract is a high price to pay, it is the only way to make it work for the Lakers.

The biggest impediment at this point may be that the Lakers seem to be playing a longer game for Kawhi. They seem to think they can change San Antonio's mind on a trade, either now or during the season. And they may be right. If the Lakers can get Kawhi, their incentive to get Wall declines (though it isn't eliminated).