DCZards wrote:payitforward wrote:If your team gets to take 86 shots, & your opponent gets to take 95 shots, with both teams taking the same number of FTAs, then you lose. Almost every time.
When you give a team 9 more shots than you, that's more or less like spotting your opponent 10 points in the modern NBA. How many games would you expect to win under those circumstances? Not many.
We missed 46 shots last night. The Kings got 39 defensive boards.
The Kings missed 51 shots last night. We got 37 defensive boards.
We traded for Markieff Morris, who is a bad rebounder.
We signed Jeff Green who is an even worse rebounder (though in fairness he rebounded well last night).
We traded for Austin Rivers, who is a notably poor rebounder.
In his first 6 years in the league, John Wall averaged 5 rebounds per 40 minutes -- above average for a PG. In his last 2 years he dropped to 4.6. The first 5 games of this year, he's down to 3.9 boards per 40 minutes.
Despite claims to the contrary, Bradley Beal has never been a strong rebounding guard.
None of the above has anything whatever to do with coaching.
OTOH, Satoransky is by far our best rebounding guard, but he's not playing much. That's a coaching decision.
Not sure how you conclude that Sato is "by far our best rebounding guard" when he's at 5.1 per 36, Beal at 4.4 and Wall at 4.1. I'd call Sato a slightly better rebounder than Wall and Beal.
But I agree with your initial comments about Morris and Green being piss poor rebounders, especially for guys playing PF and C.
I don't think our rebounding problems are going to be solved by Wall and Beal rebounding better or playing Sato more. It will hopefully be at least partially addressed by having a healthy Dwight Howard.
Oh, absolutely! Last year, Dwight Howard got something over 17 rebounds per 40 minutes! & over 25% of them were offensive boards.
After 5 games, John Wall is at just slightly over 3 rebounds per 36 (not 4.1). Sato is at 5.18. Think of a defensive rebound as worth just about 1 point & an offensive rebound as worth closer to 2 points.
Now think about the Miami game, which we lost by a single point -- we had 40 rebounds (7 offensive) to their 55 rebounds (22 offensive!!). If the rebounding is a little closer, you can put that one in the win column.
Now look at the Toronto game. We lost by 4 points. They had 52 rebounds to our 37. If the rebounding had been anywhere near even, we would have won the game pretty handily.
Ditto the Kings game -- they won by 4 points b/c they had 9 more shots on basket. They had 9 more shots b/c they had 11 more rebounds.
Now, of course, this is pretty abstract -- my point isn't that our record would for sure be 4-1 instead of 1-4 if we'd rebounded just a little better. But, you can see that it wouldn't have taken a big change in the rebounding to lead to a significant change in our record. And I concentrate on that fact, b/c yes rebounding by guards is absolutely important.
Through 5 games, Austin Rivers has played nearly twice as many minutes as Sato. Rivers is averaging 2.33 rebounds per 36 minutes. Reverse those minutes, & we'd certainly be 2-3, & maybe 3-2.
