GT #35: Wizards @ Pistons 7 PM (NBCSW/1500 AM)

[BigA]

So are we gonna criticize Beal for his poor play or just wait till John f***s up then instantly attack him?

From what I gather, the board generally doesn't get excited when Wall is leading the team or playing well. We've fallen into a habit where most of the threads revolve around waiting for Wall to mess up and attack his play, so there tends to be general silence if Wall is leading the team to victory, if Wall has a bad second half you'll suddenly see the posting pick up.

The ideal scenario for heavy traffic posting is for Beal to the lead the team to a win where Wall is out or played bad. Then you get a strong mix of posts praising Beal and "Everybody Eats" at the same time the posts calling to trade Wall. Everybody goes to sleep happy.

There just isn't any spice to Wall playing well or leading the team to a win.

So the problem is that John gets criticized too much? Or that Brad gets criticized too little? Or both?

From my perspective, there are a significant number of posts praising John when he plays a good/great game (like against the Lakers), though many comments have the flavor of "why can't he do this more often than once every 5 or 6 games?"

I'll have to pay closer attention to whether there's less posting when John is "leading the team to victory." Of course, that's not been happening a hell of a whole lot lately.

Looking back through this thread, there were a number of posts about Beal's poor 3 point shooting, as there have been all year. Lots of posts in the trade board and elsewhere about trading Brad, since he's the most valuable asset that they have.

I think that overall the criticism on this board has been meted out pretty proportionally to who's deserved it. Maybe not enough going to the owner, who deserves the most. Like it or not, John is supposed to be the best player on the team, the face of the franchise, leading by example, etc. There's the perception (reality?) that he's not consistently playing very hard, which is frustrating to people given his status and contract.

Anyway, I'll try to step up and be more critical of Brad "4th Quarter Clanker" Beal. In games like last night's, there's lots of blame to go around.

[payitforward]

So are we gonna criticize Beal for his poor play or just wait till John f***s up then instantly attack him?

From what I gather, the board generally doesn't get excited when Wall is leading the team or playing well. We've fallen into a habit where most of the threads revolve around waiting for Wall to mess up and attack his play, so there tends to be general silence if Wall is leading the team to victory, if Wall has a bad second half you'll suddenly see the posting pick up.

The ideal scenario for heavy traffic posting is for Beal to the lead the team to a win where Wall is out or played bad. Then you get a strong mix of posts praising Beal and "Everybody Eats" at the same time the posts calling to trade Wall. Everybody goes to sleep happy.

There just isn't any spice to Wall playing well or leading the team to a win.

They both played like sh#t. Wall had a terrific first half but on the game as a whole he wasn't good. Beal was bad both halves.

Props to Ariza for hitting 5 threes. Mahinmi had a good outing for him. Bryant was ok overall in 14 minutes.

Dekker, Bryant, Brown & Sato should all be getting 30 minutes a game the rest of the season. We are on a road to 30 wins; we need to see what we've got for the future.

Won't happen, however. Marching orders from Grunfeld are to max Ariza/Wall/Beal & sneak into the pis#offs I mean playoffs (also won't happen).

[Ruzious]

So are we gonna criticize Beal for his poor play or just wait till John f***s up then instantly attack him?

From what I gather, the board generally doesn't get excited when Wall is leading the team or playing well. We've fallen into a habit where most of the threads revolve around waiting for Wall to mess up and attack his play, so there tends to be general silence if Wall is leading the team to victory, if Wall has a bad second half you'll suddenly see the posting pick up.

The ideal scenario for heavy traffic posting is for Beal to the lead the team to a win where Wall is out or played bad. Then you get a strong mix of posts praising Beal and "Everybody Eats" at the same time the posts calling to trade Wall. Everybody goes to sleep happy.

There just isn't any spice to Wall playing well or leading the team to a win.

So the problem is that John gets criticized too much? Or that Brad gets criticized too little? Or both?

From my perspective, there are a significant number of posts praising John when he plays a good/great game (like against the Lakers), though many comments have the flavor of "why can't he do this more often than once every 5 or 6 games?"

I'll have to pay closer attention to whether there's less posting when John is "leading the team to victory." Of course, that's not been happening a hell of a whole lot lately.

Looking back through this thread, there were a number of posts about Beal's poor 3 point shooting, as there have been all year. Lots of posts in the trade board and elsewhere about trading Brad, since he's the most valuable asset that they have.

I think that overall the criticism on this board has been meted out pretty proportionally to who's deserved it. Maybe not enough going to the owner, who deserves the most. Like it or not, John is supposed to be the best player on the team, the face of the franchise, leading by example, etc. There's the perception (reality?) that he's not consistently playing very hard, which is frustrating to people given his status and contract.

Anyway, I'll try to step up and be more critical of Brad "4th Quarter Clanker" Beal. In games like last night's, there's lots of blame to go around.

Great post (since that's the way I see it). One thing I'll give Beal a break on for his 4th quarter failures... part of that is probably because he's tired - he's played a TON of minutes under Brooks, and he's a guy who used to be injury-prone, so this is mileage that he wasn't used to. Gotta wonder if his late 4th quarter numbers would be considerably better if Brooks hadn't over-used him. Wall has also been over-used, but he paces himself on defense, and give him credit - his energy level increases at the end o games.

[nate33]

So are we gonna criticize Beal for his poor play or just wait till John f***s up then instantly attack him?

From what I gather, the board generally doesn't get excited when Wall is leading the team or playing well. We've fallen into a habit where most of the threads revolve around waiting for Wall to mess up and attack his play, so there tends to be general silence if Wall is leading the team to victory, if Wall has a bad second half you'll suddenly see the posting pick up.

The ideal scenario for heavy traffic posting is for Beal to the lead the team to a win where Wall is out or played bad. Then you get a strong mix of posts praising Beal and "Everybody Eats" at the same time the posts calling to trade Wall. Everybody goes to sleep happy.

There just isn't any spice to Wall playing well or leading the team to a win.

So the problem is that John gets criticized too much? Or that Brad gets criticized too little? Or both?

From my perspective, there are a significant number of posts praising John when he plays a good/great game (like against the Lakers), though many comments have the flavor of "why can't he do this more often than once every 5 or 6 games?"

I'll have to pay closer attention to whether there's less posting when John is "leading the team to victory." Of course, that's not been happening a hell of a whole lot lately.

Looking back through this thread, there were a number of posts about Beal's poor 3 point shooting, as there have been all year. Lots of posts in the trade board and elsewhere about trading Brad, since he's the most valuable asset that they have.

I think that overall the criticism on this board has been meted out pretty proportionally to who's deserved it. Maybe not enough going to the owner, who deserves the most. Like it or not, John is supposed to be the best player on the team, the face of the franchise, leading by example, etc. There's the perception (reality?) that he's not consistently playing very hard, which is frustrating to people given his status and contract.

Anyway, I'll try to step up and be more critical of Brad "4th Quarter Clanker" Beal. In games like last night's, there's lots of blame to go around.

I try not to blame guys for poor shooting nights. Sometimes the shots just don't fall, a player can't control that very much.

What raises my ire is an abundance of stupid plays or a lack of effort. Over the course of this season, I don't think Beal has very often been guilty of rampant stupidity or laziness. His bad games are simply when the shots don't fall. Therefore, he doesn't get too much criticism from me. (That said, he is a shooting guard so he is worthy of some criticism for the number of open 3's he has missed this season. That's practically his job description: hit open shots.)

Wall, on the other hand, has a lot of bad games due to plain laziness, inattentiveness, or shockingly poor decision-making. He can control that. When he doesn't, he deserves all the criticism he gets.

[nate33]

Anyway, I'll try to step up and be more critical of Brad "4th Quarter Clanker" Beal. In games like last night's, there's lots of blame to go around.

Great post (since that's the way I see it). One thing I'll give Beal a break on for his 4th quarter failures... part of that is probably because he's tired - he's played a TON of minutes under Brooks, and he's a guy who used to be injury-prone, so this is mileage that he wasn't used to. Gotta wonder if his late 4th quarter numbers would be considerably better if Brooks hadn't over-used him. Wall has also been over-used, but he paces himself on defense, and give him credit - his energy level increases at the end o games.

Looking at the numbers, Beal and Wall have both been quite good in the clutch this season.

In the last 5 minutes, with a point differential of 5 or less, Beal's TS% is .611 and Wall's is .572
In the last 3 minutes, with a point differential of 3 or less, Beal's TS% is .567 and Wall's is .559

In both cases, both guards have a very high usage rate in the 28-35 range.

Interestingly, Morris and Green have also been lights out in the clutch. Morris has a TS% in excess of 100% in the final 5 minutes of 3-point games!

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764

[Ruzious]

Anyway, I'll try to step up and be more critical of Brad "4th Quarter Clanker" Beal. In games like last night's, there's lots of blame to go around.

Great post (since that's the way I see it). One thing I'll give Beal a break on for his 4th quarter failures... part of that is probably because he's tired - he's played a TON of minutes under Brooks, and he's a guy who used to be injury-prone, so this is mileage that he wasn't used to. Gotta wonder if his late 4th quarter numbers would be considerably better if Brooks hadn't over-used him. Wall has also been over-used, but he paces himself on defense, and give him credit - his energy level increases at the end o games.

Looking at the numbers, Beal and Wall have both been quite good in the clutch this season.

In the last 5 minutes, with a point differential of 5 or less, Beal's TS% is .611 and Wall's is .572
In the last 3 minutes, with a point differential of 3 or leas, Beal's TS% is .567 and Wall's is .559

In both cases, both guards have a very high usage rate in the 28-35 range.

Interestingly, Morris and Green have also been lights out in the clutch. Morris has a TS% in excess of 100% in the final 5 minutes of 3-point games!

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764

So... why does our record suck? Maybe the clutchitudeness criteria?

[nate33]

Great post (since that's the way I see it). One thing I'll give Beal a break on for his 4th quarter failures... part of that is probably because he's tired - he's played a TON of minutes under Brooks, and he's a guy who used to be injury-prone, so this is mileage that he wasn't used to. Gotta wonder if his late 4th quarter numbers would be considerably better if Brooks hadn't over-used him. Wall has also been over-used, but he paces himself on defense, and give him credit - his energy level increases at the end o games.

Looking at the numbers, Beal and Wall have both been quite good in the clutch this season.

In the last 5 minutes, with a point differential of 5 or less, Beal's TS% is .611 and Wall's is .572
In the last 3 minutes, with a point differential of 3 or leas, Beal's TS% is .567 and Wall's is .559

In both cases, both guards have a very high usage rate in the 28-35 range.

Interestingly, Morris and Green have also been lights out in the clutch. Morris has a TS% in excess of 100% in the final 5 minutes of 3-point games!

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764

So... why does our record suck? Maybe the clutchitudeness criteria?

It depends what you mean by our record sucking. Our record is actually one game BETTER than it should be going by point differential and strength of schedule. Essentially, we have one more win than we should have because we've done better than expected in close games.

[dobrojim]

Great post (since that's the way I see it). One thing I'll give Beal a break on for his 4th quarter failures... part of that is probably because he's tired - he's played a TON of minutes under Brooks, and he's a guy who used to be injury-prone, so this is mileage that he wasn't used to. Gotta wonder if his late 4th quarter numbers would be considerably better if Brooks hadn't over-used him. Wall has also been over-used, but he paces himself on defense, and give him credit - his energy level increases at the end o games.

Looking at the numbers, Beal and Wall have both been quite good in the clutch this season.

In the last 5 minutes, with a point differential of 5 or less, Beal's TS% is .611 and Wall's is .572
In the last 3 minutes, with a point differential of 3 or leas, Beal's TS% is .567 and Wall's is .559

In both cases, both guards have a very high usage rate in the 28-35 range.

Interestingly, Morris and Green have also been lights out in the clutch. Morris has a TS% in excess of 100% in the final 5 minutes of 3-point games!

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764

So... why does our record suck? Maybe the clutchitudeness criteria?

IKD, maybe because lackluster efforts (especially defensively and on the boards) usually result in fewer games
in which meaningful minutes late in the game are even possible? I know you and most everyone else on the
board get this.

[Ruzious]

Looking at the numbers, Beal and Wall have both been quite good in the clutch this season.

In the last 5 minutes, with a point differential of 5 or less, Beal's TS% is .611 and Wall's is .572
In the last 3 minutes, with a point differential of 3 or leas, Beal's TS% is .567 and Wall's is .559

In both cases, both guards have a very high usage rate in the 28-35 range.

Interestingly, Morris and Green have also been lights out in the clutch. Morris has a TS% in excess of 100% in the final 5 minutes of 3-point games!

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764

So... why does our record suck? Maybe the clutchitudeness criteria?

IKD, maybe because lackluster efforts (especially defensively and on the boards) usually result in fewer games
in which meaningful minutes late in the game are even possible? I know you and most everyone else on the
board get this.

Maybe they've both learned to pace themselves by taking defensive plays off earlier in the games - which is really not a good thing for the team. I know - without looking at the stats - that Beal was horrible in clutch 4th quarter situations last season.

[payitforward]

Great post (since that's the way I see it). One thing I'll give Beal a break on for his 4th quarter failures... part of that is probably because he's tired - he's played a TON of minutes under Brooks, and he's a guy who used to be injury-prone, so this is mileage that he wasn't used to. Gotta wonder if his late 4th quarter numbers would be considerably better if Brooks hadn't over-used him. Wall has also been over-used, but he paces himself on defense, and give him credit - his energy level increases at the end o games.

Looking at the numbers, Beal and Wall have both been quite good in the clutch this season.

In the last 5 minutes, with a point differential of 5 or less, Beal's TS% is .611 and Wall's is .572
In the last 3 minutes, with a point differential of 3 or leas, Beal's TS% is .567 and Wall's is .559

In both cases, both guards have a very high usage rate in the 28-35 range.

Interestingly, Morris and Green have also been lights out in the clutch. Morris has a TS% in excess of 100% in the final 5 minutes of 3-point games!

https://stats.nba.com/players/clutch-advanced/?sort=GP&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764

So... why does our record suck? Maybe the clutchitudeness criteria?

We are -5 points per game to the league. Only 5 teams are worse than that: 1 in the West (Phoenix) & 4 in the East (Hawks, Bulls, Cavs & Knicks). Orlando is -4.6, only a little better than the Wizards.

That's pretty bad company, huh? But, it doesn't begin to describe how bad we are. No other team, that's none of the other 23 teams in the league, is even down as much -1.6 to the league.

What that means is we have only rarely been within 5 points in the last 5 minutes of a game. Makes our performing pretty well in that circumstance kind of meaningless.

[nate33]

So... why does our record suck? Maybe the clutchitudeness criteria?

IKD, maybe because lackluster efforts (especially defensively and on the boards) usually result in fewer games
in which meaningful minutes late in the game are even possible? I know you and most everyone else on the
board get this.

Maybe they've both learned to pace themselves by taking defensive plays off earlier in the games - which is really not a good thing for the team. I know - without looking at the stats - that Beal was horrible in clutch 4th quarter situations last season.

Yes indeed. Beal was unbelievably awful in the clutch last year. It was so bad it was almost funny.

[Vladimir777]

Just watched the game. Very frustrating loss, since I feel like with consistent effort and perhaps better coaching (why did Beal need to play so many minutes?!) we would’ve won. I thought we were the better team out there, but we lost because we didn’t try hard enough.

The Wizards didn’t deserve to win after how awful they were to start the second half. It’s as simple as that.

Also, I think if we had halfway decent 3-point shooting, which is how the league has been trending the past few (more than that, at this point) years, we’d be a midrange playoff team in the East. I see the Wizards as having decent defense and paint game when we put in the effort, but we can’t ever seem to shoot well from the distance. The Pistons far outshone us in 3-point land until Ariza hit a few clutch shots in the 4th quarter.

I always thought Beal was a sharpshooter, but he ain’t great at all this year from beyond the arc. I still prefer him to John Wall overall since he’s more consistent. And Kieff pisses me off to no ends. At least Austin Rivers is gone, because his jacking up of terrible 3-pointers was really getting on my nerve. I remember when I lived in LA and followed the Clippers he was decent, then he came to DC and sucked.

Hopefully Ariza can keep up his decent play. Anyone know when Porter is coming back yet? Frustrating to see him and Dwight out for so long.

[Shanghai Kid]

I always thought Beal was a sharpshooter, but he ain’t great at all this year from beyond the arc.

Even in the seasons where Beal shot 40% from 3, you never got a feel that he was actually a sharpshooter.

The thing about this season is, we see him literally spot up from 3 wide open every game and miss it. I don't see the elite shooter miss open shots like that. I can only surmise, Beal is not an elite shooter.

I actually think he's become very automatic from mid-range. But from 3? I expect him to miss it normally.

[Vladimir777]

I always thought Beal was a sharpshooter, but he ain’t great at all this year from beyond the arc.

Even in the seasons where Beal shot 40% from 3, you never got a feel that he was actually a sharpshooter.

The thing about this season is, we see him literally spot up from 3 wide open every game and miss it. I don't see the elite shooter miss open shots like that. I can only surmise, Beal is not an elite shooter.

I actually think he's become very automatic from mid-range. But from 3? I expect him to miss it normally.

For sure. His midrange game is great, like you said, but he (and most of the Wizards) can’t buy a bucket from 3-point land.

[payitforward]

Two things:

1. Beal's midrange game isn't "great." But it's true that his 2 point % is at a career-high this season. & on the eye-test it also seems like he's getting to the basket better than in any past season (numbers might tell a different story?).

2. Overall, this has been the 2d best scoring year of Beal's career. Only 2016-17 was better. But... it was a lot better! His TS% that year was 60.4%. Brad has never been within 4 % points of that in any season -- except this year (at 57.1%).

Brad is also rebounding better than he ever has before -- especially in the last few games!

Overall, Brad Beal has become a much better player than he was his first 4 seasons; there's no doubt about that. But if you're right that he's not an elite shooter (& I think you are), then he's not really an elite player, not really a star -- since he isn't elite at any other part of the game.