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2021 Draft Thread - Part II

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#241 » by DCZards » Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:47 pm

Here's Seth Davis' report on a few of the other players we've been discussing. I included Herb Jones because he's someone I'd really like to see the Zards buy a second round pick to draft.

Moses Moody, 6-6 freshman guard, Arkansas. “One of the safer picks in the draft. He’ll be a classic 3-and-D guy. I’d like to see more nasty in him. He played the right way as a freshman. The Arkansas staff speaks the world of him. He’s average sized for a shooting guard, but he’s a strong physical kid. He’s not selfish, and he’s a pretty willing defender. His athleticism isn’t dynamic. I don’t know how well he changes directions one on one. He’s not a great shooter, but he’s got a little wiggle to him.”


Trey Murphy III, 6-9 junior forward, Virginia. “He’s a lot bigger than I thought. Big-time athlete. He’s 6-9 and he can shoot and guard. Those guys don’t grow on trees. I’ve been surprised at how well he moves defensively. He’ll probably go in the first round because people see potential for him to defend on the perimeter against smaller guys. He can actually defend a four. Nice kid, very happy go lucky. For a guy with all that length and athleticism, he didn’t rebound it well in college. He needs to be a better finisher. He needs to be a tougher, more hard-nosed player. If you let him jump off two feet he will rock your world. He doesn’t have a great handle but he can do what Cam Johnson does.”


Jared Butler, 6-3 junior guard, Baylor. “Oh man, what an unbelievable kid. He was so impressive in our interview. He’s really small. Not a super quick athlete. A winner and big-time shot-maker. He could be in the 20s without that medical issue. This kid could run for president. He checks all the boxes in terms of culture.”

Sharife Cooper, 6-1 freshman guard Auburn. “Wow, what a great kid. He’s bigger than I thought. Really knows how to change speeds to get in the paint. The poor shooting is really hard to overcome, but he’ll be in the first round because he’s just so elite at getting to spots and making plays. Also at that size, who’s he gonna guard? I don’t think he defends worth a ****. If he was a 35 percent 3-point shooter he’d be at the top of the lottery. He’s got that ball on a string. In our league you have to be able to shoot it. He plays hard and he loves basketball.”


Herbert Jones, 6-8 senior forward, Alabama. “Talk about a guy with elite toughness. He played his junior year with a broken hand. He can guard one through five, he’s a playmaker with the ball. The shooting piece really needs to improve. I know his shooting percentages improved, but he still has a funky looking shot. He could have a Torrey Craig kind of impact on a playoff team. He does a lot of little things. You have to have the right coach who understands what you have with this guy.”
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#242 » by payitforward » Thu Jul 22, 2021 5:13 pm

Frichuela wrote:On Trey Murphy, who just had a pre-draft work out with us, his stats look so eerily similar to Saddiq Bey...don't they?

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=trey-murphy-iii--saddiq-bey

To be honest, I would be fine selecting the next Saddiq Bey at #15 and even better in a trade down at #18 or #19 :wink:

I don't see them as quite as similar. Bey's rebounding & assists are significantly ahead of Murphy's, while Murphy's extraordinary .670 TS%, though better than Bey's, doesn't take into account the fact that Bey's usage was @25% higher. Plus, Bey was a better rebounder & passer. Finally, we're comparing Bey as a Sophomore to Murphy in his third year of college.

Don't get me wrong -- Murphy looks good, & obviously there are plenty of areas of similarity. It's just that I don't think we'd be very likely to get "the next Saddiq Bey" by picking him.

I certainly wouldn't pick him at 15, & I'd be slow to pull the trigger at 18 or 19. Tho, obviously it would depend on who else was on the board.

For that matter, why not aim a little higher -- how about we try to get the next Keldon Johnson instead of Saddiq Bey.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#243 » by Ruzious » Thu Jul 22, 2021 5:35 pm

One thing to keep in mind when evaluating the UVA prospects is that UVA played at a very slow pace. It might be better to look at their per 100 possessions numbers than their per 40 minutes numbers when comparing them to players on other teams. Conversely, Gonzaga plays at an especially fast pace, so if you want to compare Gonzaga's elite players to UVA's underrated players, it's even more important to use the per 100 possessions numbers over the per 40 minutes numbers.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#244 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:14 pm

DCZards wrote:Here's Seth Davis' report on a few of the other players we've been discussing.

I really like all of these comments he makes. Seth Davis seems very even-handed in his criticism with likes and dislikes about each player. His expectations seem very realistic. He doesn't compare ordinary prospects to NBA stars. It gives him a lot more credibility.

I don't necessarily agree with his evaluations, but I think his assessment of the draft class as a whole seems about right. There are a couple guys with star potential, a few more with starter potential, and a whole bunch with rotation-player potential.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#245 » by Kanyewest » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:27 pm

Ruzious wrote:One thing to keep in mind when evaluating the UVA prospects is that UVA played at a very slow pace. It might be better to look at their per 100 possessions numbers than their per 40 minutes numbers when comparing them to players on other teams. Conversely, Gonzaga plays at an especially fast pace, so if you want to compare Gonzaga's elite players to UVA's underrated players, it's even more important to use the per 100 possessions numbers over the per 40 minutes numbers.


Yup, UVA plays at a very slow pace.

Just want to point out that Villanova plays at a pretty slow pace, not as slow as UVA. Just pointing that out because of the previous Bey comparisons.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#246 » by Ruzious » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:49 pm

Seth also stole my comp of Trey Murphy to Cam Johnson. :dontknow:
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#247 » by Kanyewest » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:51 pm

nate33 wrote:Bouknight's biggest issue in college was that he wasn't that great of a 3-point shooter (29.3%). Look at him here:



:o


Ryen Russilo was saying that Bouknight could go as high as #7 now. Seems like a long shot he lasts to 7 although one would have to take him for the pick at 15 if he's still on the board.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#248 » by Ruzious » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:59 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
nate33 wrote:Bouknight's biggest issue in college was that he wasn't that great of a 3-point shooter (29.3%). Look at him here:



:o


Ryen Russilo was saying that Bouknight could go as high as #7 now. Seems like a long shot he lasts to 7 although one would have to take him for the pick at 15 if he's still on the board.

To me, best case is he has a Lou Williams effect - instant offense off the bench. He's the kind of player I'd hate to play with - strictly an iso player who hunts for his own shot. No doubt, he'll score a lot, but it remains to be seen if he'll do it efficiently - or do anything else well.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#249 » by prime1time » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:08 pm

*accidental post
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#250 » by Frichuela » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:15 pm

prime1time wrote:;ab_channel=TheScoutingRapport


Gafford + Garuba = block party :nod:

In any case, and for the umpteenth time, I don't think he lasts to 15th..
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#251 » by gambitx777 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:38 pm

prime1time wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:I'm getting strong MKG vibes from that garuba kid. The fact that his numbers got worse and not better in Europe bothers me. I just got a bad vibe about him.

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The shot is not as broken as MKGs was and I think Garuba is a better athlete. That said I have concerns about drafting a non-threat offensively and would pass at 15 or in a trade down scenario.

Why is he a non-threat? He played on a better team in Euroleague than Avdija did - his team made the playoffs Avdija's didn't - and his offensive role grew down the stretch of the season. Just fascinating how narratives form about players. What's happening on this board with Garuba is that posters decide their opinion, and then they look at the player. When you talk about a "non-threat offensively" you are giving the impression that Garuba is Andre Roberson. When in actuality we should just say that we have no clue what Garuba could become offensively because we don't have any reference points for a guy like him. In his interview with Mike Schmit Garuba mentions that he feels comfortable leading the break. I've seen many plays where Garuba has broken down defenders closing him out. I've seen Garuba use his strength and post up smaller players. I've also seen Garuba blow past slow-footed centers.

Let's throw out his defense out of the window and only talk about his offense. There are two dualing narratives that we have to separate. The first is that Garuba is a non-entity offensively who will come in, play hard defensively but give us nothing offensively. What is this based on? My narrative is that Garuba is an athletic freak who at 18/19 was playing in the second best league in the world and had a role that arbitrarily constrained his offense. So now, fans run in watch some tape of Garuba and say he can only do x, y and z because that's all that he showed. Regardless of where he ends up, hopefully the team that drafts him attempts to develop his offense. His combination of foot speed and strength has the potential to make him a legitimate threat offensively not to mention that his shooting shows great promise.

The kid is 19 years old. Fascinating how so many people know without any doubt that he can develop offensively. If you don't thtink the Wizards can afford to let him develop offensively then say that. But then I'd point out that if all we got was playoff Garuba - knocking down open 3's at 36.8% and his ft's - we would be better in the present than if we drafted any other player. Ultimately, I think what hurts Garuba detractors is that the facts simply don't match up with the narrative they are trying to push.
'
Ok so let's get into this. No one has bias or hate for this young man. But I'm watching tape I don't like what I see. I don't like his feel for the offence, I don't like his release and I don't care for how his numbers dipped every year in the euros. I'm sorry but numbers do not lie, this kids offensive numbers got worse. Ever year he played euro ball. His 3%, his FG, his TS% and his ft%, which is god awful. He's not a good offensive player and too me and what I've seen and the information I have I don't have reason to want to find out if he can be. So when I say I have MKG vibes from him that's all I mean. I'm not saying he's gonna be as bad or that he's not gonna be good. But based off the info I have available to me, I have no desire to be the one to find out. At least not at 15 were guys like Kispert, sengun, and a number of other decent young guys will be. Now, if we trade back and yes there in the late 20s early 30s then that's a different conversation.

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#252 » by prime1time » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:55 pm

gambitx777 wrote:
prime1time wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
The shot is not as broken as MKGs was and I think Garuba is a better athlete. That said I have concerns about drafting a non-threat offensively and would pass at 15 or in a trade down scenario.

Why is he a non-threat? He played on a better team in Euroleague than Avdija did - his team made the playoffs Avdija's didn't - and his offensive role grew down the stretch of the season. Just fascinating how narratives form about players. What's happening on this board with Garuba is that posters decide their opinion, and then they look at the player. When you talk about a "non-threat offensively" you are giving the impression that Garuba is Andre Roberson. When in actuality we should just say that we have no clue what Garuba could become offensively because we don't have any reference points for a guy like him. In his interview with Mike Schmit Garuba mentions that he feels comfortable leading the break. I've seen many plays where Garuba has broken down defenders closing him out. I've seen Garuba use his strength and post up smaller players. I've also seen Garuba blow past slow-footed centers.

Let's throw out his defense out of the window and only talk about his offense. There are two dualing narratives that we have to separate. The first is that Garuba is a non-entity offensively who will come in, play hard defensively but give us nothing offensively. What is this based on? My narrative is that Garuba is an athletic freak who at 18/19 was playing in the second best league in the world and had a role that arbitrarily constrained his offense. So now, fans run in watch some tape of Garuba and say he can only do x, y and z because that's all that he showed. Regardless of where he ends up, hopefully the team that drafts him attempts to develop his offense. His combination of foot speed and strength has the potential to make him a legitimate threat offensively not to mention that his shooting shows great promise.

The kid is 19 years old. Fascinating how so many people know without any doubt that he can develop offensively. If you don't thtink the Wizards can afford to let him develop offensively then say that. But then I'd point out that if all we got was playoff Garuba - knocking down open 3's at 36.8% and his ft's - we would be better in the present than if we drafted any other player. Ultimately, I think what hurts Garuba detractors is that the facts simply don't match up with the narrative they are trying to push.
'
Ok so let's get into this. No one has bias or hate for this young man. But I'm watching tape I don't like what I see. I don't like his feel for the offence, I don't like his release and I don't care for how his numbers dipped every year in the euros. I'm sorry but numbers do not lie, this kids offensive numbers got worse. Ever year he played euro ball. His 3%, his FG, his TS% and his ft%, which is god awful. He's not a good offensive player and too me and what I've seen and the information I have I don't have reason to want to find out if he can be. So when I say I have MKG vibes from him that's all I mean. I'm not saying he's gonna be as bad or that he's not gonna be good. But based off the info I have available to me, I have no desire to be the one to find out. At least not at 15 were guys like Kispert, sengun, and a number of other decent young guys will be. Now, if we trade back and yes there in the late 20s early 30s then that's a different conversation.

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#253 » by prime1time » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:58 pm

Frichuela wrote:
prime1time wrote:;ab_channel=TheScoutingRapport


Gafford + Garuba = block party :nod:

In any case, and for the umpteenth time, I don't think he lasts to 15th..

Accidental post sorry

*I was going to make a post talking about Garuba's first step at 1:52 and how with a simple jab step, one step dribble he could be a real issue for opposing defenders. Against a smaller guard if he could get his weight on him he could easily drive through him. And bigger guys simply won't be able to handle his first step. Most posters may not care, but if you look at anything before his time in the Euroleague, he attack from the wing pretty often. He's raw but hopefully the team that drafts him see's his potential as a wing scorer. I find it fascinating to read that he has no offensive ability at all. In four years if his shooting continues to improve and he develops a rudimentary offensive approach it's not crazy to think that Garuba could be legit weapon offensively. Similar to Pascal Siakam. Nothing crazy but layups at the rim and knocking down open 3-pointers. Similar to OG Anunoby. I think late-blooming African players that don't go through the normal American AAU system will force us to change how we evaluate players.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#254 » by prime1time » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:08 pm

I don't really see Sengun as a fit for this team unless we move Byrant. Having 3 traditional centers in a league that routinely goes small doesn't really make sense. I think the most likely scenario for us is that we draft a wing. I think the offensive prowess of a lot the wings in the draft is overstated. Rookies don't typically come in and contribute in large amounts. Look at Haliburton. He played really well and he only averaged 13 ppg. With that being said given that our shooting was so bad we could still expect to see improvement by being able to bring a solid wing off the bench. It will be interesting to see what free agency moves we make this offseason. If we sign a 3-point shooting wing, that will put us in the position of having Bryant/Gafford, Bertans, FA and Draft Pick coming off the bench. Not to mention back-up pg. It will be fascinating to see Unsled's rotations but I already get the feeling that this draft pick might get buried on the bench.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#255 » by doclinkin » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:22 pm

All year I was trying to think of who Davion Mitchell reminds me of and I finally figured it out:



Same swagger, same moxie, same defensive ferocity, undaunted. Plays bigger than his stature. Unselfish game. Lil' bit of outside shot-making to go with it.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#256 » by gambitx777 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:26 pm

prime1time wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:
prime1time wrote:Why is he a non-threat? He played on a better team in Euroleague than Avdija did - his team made the playoffs Avdija's didn't - and his offensive role grew down the stretch of the season. Just fascinating how narratives form about players. What's happening on this board with Garuba is that posters decide their opinion, and then they look at the player. When you talk about a "non-threat offensively" you are giving the impression that Garuba is Andre Roberson. When in actuality we should just say that we have no clue what Garuba could become offensively because we don't have any reference points for a guy like him. In his interview with Mike Schmit Garuba mentions that he feels comfortable leading the break. I've seen many plays where Garuba has broken down defenders closing him out. I've seen Garuba use his strength and post up smaller players. I've also seen Garuba blow past slow-footed centers.

Let's throw out his defense out of the window and only talk about his offense. There are two dualing narratives that we have to separate. The first is that Garuba is a non-entity offensively who will come in, play hard defensively but give us nothing offensively. What is this based on? My narrative is that Garuba is an athletic freak who at 18/19 was playing in the second best league in the world and had a role that arbitrarily constrained his offense. So now, fans run in watch some tape of Garuba and say he can only do x, y and z because that's all that he showed. Regardless of where he ends up, hopefully the team that drafts him attempts to develop his offense. His combination of foot speed and strength has the potential to make him a legitimate threat offensively not to mention that his shooting shows great promise.

The kid is 19 years old. Fascinating how so many people know without any doubt that he can develop offensively. If you don't thtink the Wizards can afford to let him develop offensively then say that. But then I'd point out that if all we got was playoff Garuba - knocking down open 3's at 36.8% and his ft's - we would be better in the present than if we drafted any other player. Ultimately, I think what hurts Garuba detractors is that the facts simply don't match up with the narrative they are trying to push.
'
Ok so let's get into this. No one has bias or hate for this young man. But I'm watching tape I don't like what I see. I don't like his feel for the offence, I don't like his release and I don't care for how his numbers dipped every year in the euros. I'm sorry but numbers do not lie, this kids offensive numbers got worse. Ever year he played euro ball. His 3%, his FG, his TS% and his ft%, which is god awful. He's not a good offensive player and too me and what I've seen and the information I have I don't have reason to want to find out if he can be. So when I say I have MKG vibes from him that's all I mean. I'm not saying he's gonna be as bad or that he's not gonna be good. But based off the info I have available to me, I have no desire to be the one to find out. At least not at 15 were guys like Kispert, sengun, and a number of other decent young guys will be. Now, if we trade back and yes there in the late 20s early 30s then that's a different conversation.

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The best thing about the draft is that we get to be proved right or wrong. We'll see. I have one question though, did you read anything that I wrote? It's fine if you didn't. I'll just know not to waste my time writing next time.
I read all like what was it 7 paragraphs. I took from those that you might like this kid more than pif loves him some Brandon Clarke. You used the word bias several times and insinuated that I didn't do my researchnabd too offence that I mentioned garuba and MKG in the same breath. I defined my position further and why. That's all. I get that the kid has talent and he can guard the moon from coming up of he had too, but you haven't offered much oppotion as to why his offensive numbers have gotten worse with more usage.



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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#257 » by Ruzious » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:43 pm

doclinkin wrote:All year I was trying to think of who Davion Mitchell reminds me of and I finally figured it out:



Same swagger, same moxie, same defensive ferocity, undaunted. Plays bigger than his stature. Unselfish game. Lil' bit of outside shot-making to go with it.

Not to mention, Mookie made such an impression that Pearl Jam originally named themselves after him.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#258 » by Frichuela » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:49 pm

doclinkin wrote:All year I was trying to think of who Davion Mitchell reminds me of and I finally figured it out:



Same swagger, same moxie, same defensive ferocity, undaunted. Plays bigger than his stature. Unselfish game. Lil' bit of outside shot-making to go with it.


Congrats. Great comparison of what Davion could become. Blaylock was a beast defensively, leading the lead in steals twice (if my memory serves me right!). He was also a competent threat from the outside. Maybe the stars align, we get lucky and land Mitchell at #15..
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#259 » by payitforward » Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:37 pm

DCZards wrote:Here are some highlights of Jalen Johnson at Duke. You really only need to watch the first 3 minutes or so to see the high IQ defense (steals & blocks); passing, ballhandling (especially the ability to take defenders off the dribble); and ability to go end-to-end and finish at the rim.

Pretty impressive stuff for a young man his size.

Yes, his shooting needs to improve but Johnson has the physical tools and IQ to be a quality starter at the next level.

I'm not suggesting that the Zards draft him because we need shooting (Moody, Murphy, Kispert, Butler) but don't sleep on JJ.


I'm with Zards on this, & in fact I'd say that if JJ were there at #15 it would be impossible to pass on him. There's just too much potential. A bit like what Ruzious had in mind when he wrote that you can't pass on a potential star at 15.

Now... if we trade down & pick up multiple talented players, I won't complain too much about passing on Johnson -- there are just so many solid, solid prospects this year....
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#260 » by Ruzious » Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:09 am

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:Here are some highlights of Jalen Johnson at Duke. You really only need to watch the first 3 minutes or so to see the high IQ defense (steals & blocks); passing, ballhandling (especially the ability to take defenders off the dribble); and ability to go end-to-end and finish at the rim.

Pretty impressive stuff for a young man his size.

Yes, his shooting needs to improve but Johnson has the physical tools and IQ to be a quality starter at the next level.

I'm not suggesting that the Zards draft him because we need shooting (Moody, Murphy, Kispert, Butler) but don't sleep on JJ.


I'm with Zards on this, & in fact I'd say that if JJ were there at #15 it would be impossible to pass on him. There's just too much potential. A bit like what Ruzious had in mind when he wrote that you can't pass on a potential star at 15.

Now... if we trade down & pick up multiple talented players, I won't complain too much about passing on Johnson -- there are just so many solid, solid prospects this year....

Otoh, Johnson had all of 2 good games last season and pretty much stunk the rest of them - before he quit. But there must have been lots of other college players that quit because of the pandemic.
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