Are the Wizards a Playoff Team This Year?

[closg00]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

i'll put the positive spin on the shorter version.

inefficiency: a penetrating guard makes a world of difference for offensive efficiency. we added 2.

perimeter shooting: when gil's out, nick will be in. shooting is one of the few things he does right.

rebounding: no rebuttal here. we'll suck at boarding.

sf: thornton isn't looking very good and is getting limited minutes. it's a headscratcher. i thought he was at least passable at SF last season, hustling on D and finishing with regularity. i have higher hopes that he will play better once the season comes around than McGee will. if nothing else, Yi can also play sf in a pinch, and Howard is coming back.

bottom line, we're just talking about the NBA playoffs - the EASIEST playoffs to make in any of the 4 major sports. we don't have to win our division. heck, we could even come in dead last in our division (likely). As long as there are 7 teams worse than we are in the East we're in like flynn. Toronto, Jersey, Philly, Cleveland, Toronto, and Detroit are almost locks for the lottery. That just means we have to best 1 other team out of Indy, Philly, and the NYK. I personally believe that even with our weaknesses, we've got so much talent (especially in Gil) that there's no way that Philly can be better than us. We're definitely playoff-bound.

You forgot about Charlotte, who I think is better than we are because of their coaching/veterans/continuity. Also, you miscounted: there's still Miami, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago ahead of us (6 teams). Or maybe both were do to counting Toronto and Philly twice.

Anyway, even if you rule out NJ and Cleveland, which I am not ready to do, we still have to beat out 3 out of 4 of Charlotte, Indy, Philly, and NY. Definitely not definite.

+1 WillB, one or maybe two of these teams ^ will surprise this year. The 8th seed is no lock for us.

[Ruzious]

I think they'll score plenty because they'll run and play at a fast pace. The issue is efficiency, and I don't expect them to be very efficient. I think their defense will be better than the offense this season.

With defense including defensive rebounding, I'd be surprised if that's true. I think the offense will be more efficient. Even without good defensive rebounding, they're going to get a lot more easy baskets this season created by the fast pace. And their ability to drive the lane this season should make them much more efficient - getting easier baskets and more free throws. Wall won't shoot a high percentage, but he's going to draw fouls and make things easier for everyone else.

I realize fast pace doesn't automatically translate to offensive efficiency, but with the personnel the Wiz have, it should.

[Nivek]

I think they'll score plenty because they'll run and play at a fast pace. The issue is efficiency, and I don't expect them to be very efficient. I think their defense will be better than the offense this season.

With defense including defensive rebounding, I'd be surprised if that's true. I think the offense will be more efficient. Even without good defensive rebounding, they're going to get a lot more easy baskets this season created by the fast pace. And their ability to drive the lane this season should make them much more efficient - getting easier baskets and more free throws. Wall won't shoot a high percentage, but he's going to draw fouls and make things easier for everyone else.

I realize fast pace doesn't automatically translate to offensive efficiency, but with the personnel the Wiz have, it should.

Last season (after the trades), the defense was ahead of the offense even with the defensive rebounding struggles. The defense was still below average -- it's just that the offense was a lot worse than average. I think they'll be better offensively than they were, but they'd have to improve a TON to even get back to league average efficiency on offense. Wall should help (unless turnovers and shooting are a problem). Arenas can help, depending on what he has left. Blatche has never been efficient -- maybe this is the year. Hinrich has been up and down in terms of efficiency. Yi has never been efficient. For the offense to improve, basically everyone has to do better than they've ever done, and Wall is going to have to be effiicent right away.

On defense, they have the athleticism and they have a solid scheme. I think it's more likely for Flip to get buy-in on the defensive end than for everyone to get more efficient on offense.

[nate33]

Actually, the defense was probably closer to "average" than "below average". IIRC, we ranked 21st in DRtg at the time of the trade. After the final 32 games, we ranked 18th. We must therefore have played average or better defense during those 32 games in order to drop our ranking. We were probably something like the 13th best defense in the league.

[Nivek]

According to my spreadsheet, the ortg over the final 32 games was 103.3; the drtg was 109.5. The ortg would have tied for 28th last season (over the full season). The drtg would have ranked 18th. League average was 107.6.

Nate may be right that they were about average to possibly slightly better than average defensively after the trade last season. League offensive efficiency tends to improve over the last couple months of the season. League efficiency over the last 32 games was likely a bit better than 107.6.

[nate33]

You have a spreadsheet with data for just the final 32 games? Where did you get the raw data?

[Nivek]

For the past few seasons I've been doing a tracking spreadsheet that I update game by game. I just ran my usual calculations but for just the final 32 games.

FWIW, after 50 games last season, the Wizards ortg was 104.7; their drtg was 109.3. Their pace was 92.3 possessions per 48 minutes. At the end of the season I have them at 104.1 and 109.4, and a pace of 91.8.

[Ruzious]

I think they'll score plenty because they'll run and play at a fast pace. The issue is efficiency, and I don't expect them to be very efficient. I think their defense will be better than the offense this season.

With defense including defensive rebounding, I'd be surprised if that's true. I think the offense will be more efficient. Even without good defensive rebounding, they're going to get a lot more easy baskets this season created by the fast pace. And their ability to drive the lane this season should make them much more efficient - getting easier baskets and more free throws. Wall won't shoot a high percentage, but he's going to draw fouls and make things easier for everyone else.

I realize fast pace doesn't automatically translate to offensive efficiency, but with the personnel the Wiz have, it should.

Last season (after the trades), the defense was ahead of the offense even with the defensive rebounding struggles. The defense was still below average -- it's just that the offense was a lot worse than average. I think they'll be better offensively than they were, but they'd have to improve a TON to even get back to league average efficiency on offense. Wall should help (unless turnovers and shooting are a problem). Arenas can help, depending on what he has left. Blatche has never been efficient -- maybe this is the year. Hinrich has been up and down in terms of efficiency. Yi has never been efficient. For the offense to improve, basically everyone has to do better than they've ever done, and Wall is going to have to be effiicent right away.

On defense, they have the athleticism and they have a solid scheme. I think it's more likely for Flip to get buy-in on the defensive end than for everyone to get more efficient on offense.

Maybe the NBA is just filled with a majority of poor defensive teams. Is there a big dropoff after the elite defensive teams? Moreso than the dropoff after the elite offensive teams?

[Nivek]

Really interesting question, Ruz. Standard deviation for team ortg last season was 3.4 vs. 3.1 for team drtg. The best offensive team was 7.7 points per 100 possessions better than average; the worst was -7.0. The best defensive team was +4.8 vs. league average; the worst was -5.6.

The Wiz had the 25th ranked offense and were -3.4 vs. league average. The Nets were 25th in defense at -2.7.

Looking at z scores, the biggest difference on defense were 1.5 standard deviations above average and 1.8 SDs below average. On offense, the differences were 2.3 SDs above, and 2.0 SDs below.

So, a slightly tighter grouping on the defensive side of the ball. Which is one of those paradoxical results. Because the grouping is typically a bit looser on the offensive side, improving the offense is typically the fastest way to win more games. However, a better defense is slightly more important to making the Finals and winning championships.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Through the first four preseason games, the Wiz are outscoring opponents 99.3 to 94.0. They're outshooting opponents .463 to .454. They have a very balanced scoring attack, with 6 players averaging (or very close to) double figure scoring each game.Unlike the past, scoring is coming from more than just 3 or 4 players. This is a very unselfish team. Yi and Blatche are good passing bigs.

http://www.nba.com/wizards/stats/

I think this team is going to be much more efficient offensively and flat better defensively. Perimeter defense is much, much better. Dribble penetration is much better. Three point shooting is much, much better. With Yi and a much more assertive McGee, the team has bigs besides Blatche who will finish. Thanks to Wall and Hinrich, both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency will improve. The assists plus steals vs turnovers for the Wizards is much, much better than for opponents. The guards on this team are getting it done.

The only glaring deficiency I see is on the boards. Yi and McGee have hit the boards, but others have not.

This team is playoff bound barring injuries.

[Dat2U]

Last season (after the trades), the defense was ahead of the offense even with the defensive rebounding struggles. The defense was still below average -- it's just that the offense was a lot worse than average. I think they'll be better offensively than they were, but they'd have to improve a TON to even get back to league average efficiency on offense. Wall should help (unless turnovers and shooting are a problem). Arenas can help, depending on what he has left. Blatche has never been efficient -- maybe this is the year. Hinrich has been up and down in terms of efficiency. Yi has never been efficient. For the offense to improve, basically everyone has to do better than they've ever done, and Wall is going to have to be effiicent right away.

On defense, they have the athleticism and they have a solid scheme. I think it's more likely for Flip to get buy-in on the defensive end than for everyone to get more efficient on offense.

Interesting. I noticed how much better the team performed when Shaun Livingston stepped in and started at PG. As we know, Flip's offense is so PG dependent. If you have someone with inferior talent, skills or just a bad fit in general, the team is going to suffer. To begin the season, we had a rusty Arenas trying to learn how to run a team and struggling to figure out when to score & when to pass. When Arenas got suspended, we saw Randy Foye for the most part try to take on that role. Foye was absolutely wretched in my opinion and clearly over-matched. Remembering back at that 16 game losing streak, it wasn't until Livingston's role increased & Foye's decreased that we began to play respectably again.

I know we can't measure the impact of quality play from the PG position but with Wall & Hinrich, we seem to be much better off than we were last year. I don't think its a stretch that there would see a team-wide spike in offensive efficiency due to significantly improved play from the PG position.

[Nivek]

Below I have a table showing pace (possessions per 48 minutes), ortg and drtg for the Wiz last season through the first 50 games, then for games 51-64, then for games 65-82 (the games Livingston started) and finally for the full season.

Code: Select all

GAMES   PACE    ORTG    DRTG
1-50    92.3    104.7   109.3
51-64   91.0    103.8   109.2
65-82   91.0    103.0   109.8
SEASON  91.8    104.1   109.4



All this said, the more I think about it, the less convinced I am that even what happened after the trades has much at all to do with what the team will be like this season. McGee and Blatche are really the only two from last year's squad who figure to play significant roles this season.

My concerns for the upcoming season boil down to the fact that everything is a question mark. No one knows what Arenas is going to provide. Wall looks like he'll be good, but will he be like Chris Paul as a rookie or Derrick Rose? Who's the SF since Thornton appears to have lost the battle there? Can Yi reverse three years of suckiness to become a productive pro? Can Blatche build on the end of last season and actually get better? Can McGee become a productive pro and not just a spectacular dunker who posts hollow stats? Who's going to rebound for this team? Can Nick Young do anything

That's just off the top of my head. If I really thought about it, I'd probably have more questions. I think it's possible that all those questions can be answered satisfactorily and the Wizards to make the playoffs. But, I've seen enough of the NBA to be skeptical that all (or even most) of the answers will come out in the Wizards favor.

[Nivek]

Ahhh, the perils of curiosity. After repeating over and over the "preseason is meaningless" mantra, this morning in the shower I began to wonder -- Is the preseason really meaningless? Truisms just like this one got me interested in statistical analysis and actual research in the first place. I figured someone else might have been similarly interested, so I googled it.

Turns out, Roland Beech at 82games took a look at this subject a few years ago. I recommend the entire article, of course, but here are the results for a 5-year stretch from 01-02 to 05-06:

Correlation of Preseason Record to Regular Season Record:
.69 Teams coming off a less than 30 win season
.38 Teams coming off a 30 to 39 win season
.43 Teams coming off a 40 to 49 win season
-.04 Teams coming off a 50+ win season

In other words, in this study, preseason records have some meaning for teams that were terrible the previous year, but are indeed meaningless for teams that were good. However, even though it's 5 seasons, the sample size is still pretty small, and the correlation even the highest correlation isn't robust. There are clearly LOTS of other factors at work when predicting team record.

Roland includes 3 teams at the end that were having good preseasons in 2006 that were bad the year before -- Toronto (27-55), New York (23-59), and Atlanta (26-56). All three teams were better in 06-07 -- Toronto had 47 wins, New York 33, Atlanta 30.

48minutesofhell also took a look recently at this issue and came to a similar conclusion -- that preseason means something. I'd like to take a look myself with a much larger sample (maybe 20 years). That's going to take awhile, though.

My message though -- HOPE AWAY!!!

[verbal8]

It makes sense to me that the best teams pre-season results would not have much correlation with results. The starters for the top teams play 1/2 the game if that. Basically the pre-season is used to determine who fills in the end of the bench.

With the teams that are bad, the players playing the pre-season is a lot closer to the actual rotation.

[miller31time]

I'm so happy this new poster, Nivek, decided to join our forum. I'm equally grateful that that hack TSW doesn't show his face here anymore.

[Nivek]

I'm so happy this new poster, Nivek, decided to join our forum. I'm equally grateful that that hack TSW doesn't show his face here anymore.

That TSW guy sounds like a total ass.

[miller31time]

I'm so happy this new poster, Nivek, decided to join our forum. I'm equally grateful that that hack TSW doesn't show his face here anymore.

That TSW guy sounds like a total ass.

Diderotn meets StillDroppin.

[nate33]

I'm so happy this new poster, Nivek, decided to join our forum. I'm equally grateful that that hack TSW doesn't show his face here anymore.

That TSW guy sounds like a total ass.

Diderotn meets StillDroppin.

At least he wasn't as bad as WizardsKev.

[dobrojim]

I was struck by how pessimistic Thompson and Junior Buuroughs were
on the CSN wiz pre-season show were.

neither predicted playoffs or even 40 wins

I'm with CCJ. Irrational exuberance. That's the ticket.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yep. If you're going to hope you may as well totally go for it. Wish BIG.

Rather than say 33 wins I chose 43. If EJ can take those limited teams of the past to the playoffs with around 45 or 43 wins, surely Flip Saunders can get this athletic bunch with a tremendous PG to the playoffs. Flip's going to bounce back, I can just tell. I'm not even crazy about the guy but he's coaching very well and handling things much better this season. This young team isn't selfish like last seasons.

Better talent, more coachable, better on defense, much more unselfish, confident PG play, Gil as a SG, three seven footers; this team will rock.