Draft Thread Continued. 2011 part two...

[sfam]

At this point, I'm REALLY hoping we have a shot at Derrick Williams. Assuming Williams and Irving come out, this is looking more and more like a two person draft.

That said, if we're stuck with the 3rd or 4th pick, I'd be OK with Perry Jones, but he's really in the risk category, and could clearly be a bust based on lack of interest. At least he has good potential, but he isn't gonna help us much next year. If we end up with Jones, I wouldn't at all be surprised to find us back in the lottery next year. Than will have to start worrying about Wall leaving.

[Rafael122]

Honestly, my choice would be Derrick Williams and if we can't get him, I'd trade the pick. It seems like everyone and their mother are going back to school. We pretty much have to pick top 3, if not top 2 to get Williams.

[hands11]

Man the draft still like 3 months away! We got the lottery to look forward to, then the combine & workouts.

If we can add Derrick Williams, maybe Markieff Morris with the ATL pick, or Faried, and add a G to the mix in the 2nd round!

We'd have McGee continue at center, hopefully after a good offseason, Seraphin with a year of experience, as well as N'diaye. Maybe keep Yi as a C/PF who can shoot off the bench. Blatche can also be used here.

PF we have Blatche, challenged by Morris, as well as Booker. Yi, Seraphin, Williams, Lewis can all see action here as well.

SF we have DWilliams, and Lewis. We can also add depth with Howard, Evans or Martin. Young can also slide up here.

G we got Young, Crawford, Wall as a foundation. We can add a backup pg or combo G in the 2nd round. Possibly keep Shakur. Howard/Martin can play some 2. Maybe the 2nd rounder can yield a N.Smith, Hansbrough, Holiday, or Buford.

This draft is crucial. We actually have a decent young foundation in place if we can add a couple right pieces to the mix.

That outline seems to be the consensus so far.

[kirubel94]

I think the wizards will pick perry jones if derrick williams is gone. they took mcgee because of his potential , and perry has one of the greatest potential ive ever seen. 6"10 with offensive game, Great speed , great handle , him and blatche and mcgee can be the biggest frontcourt in the leauge.

[hands11]

I like hearing that Williams thinks of himself as a 3/4. You are what you think you are, not who someone else thinks you are. I like him much better as a 3 but he can certainly match up as a 4 in long stretches when teams go small.

If Perry Jones sees himself as a SF, then that's what he should play as long as he's got the ability to do so. I know many on here don't like Perry but remember the jump that Williams made from his freshman to sophomore season? Williams averaged nearly 16 & 7. Would anyone have taken Williams with a top 5 pick last year? Jones averaged nearly 14 & 7 with an absolutely terrible back court playing in a system that didn't utilize any of his talents. Another comparison would be Favors who was in a similar scenario to Jones. Favors played with a terrible backcourt and suffered from poor coaching. He averaged 12 & 8. Many people here would gladly trade the 1st pick this year for Favors who was the 3rd pick last year. So when people say how can you draft a player so high who played so poorly and couldn't do anything at the college level, I kind of thinking they are letting they're hate of potential cloud their judgement. Drafting in the NBA is a tricky and imperfect process. This is not like football where you are looking for the most ready made prospect. Or trying to draft the safest player available. If it was all about who scored the most or who got the most rebounds, Nick Fazekas would have been an all-star and we'd be extolling the virtues of Andrew Goudelock right now.

Going back to the general hate of potential. I think the board is collectively suffering from Kwamblajavitis. I guess were tired of waiting for potential to develop after watching Kwame for 4 years, Blatche for 6 and McGee for 3 with very mixed results at best. But not all propsects are created equal. I don't think you can let a previous bad experience influence your decisions in the future. Every prospect is different. I don't like the Blatche/Jones comparisons at all because I don't think they are nothing alike. Jones has a different makeup. Jones seems like a more cerebral cat. He's definitely 2 or 3 steps quicker and probably doesn't have an equal athletically in his 6-10 frame. He's explosive and cat quick, everything Blatche is not. And I don't see the selfishness or immaturity that has plagued Blatche into his 20s.

Personally I'd take Williams with my pick and be okay with it. But if we don't end up with the #1 pick and Jones is one the board and were picking at 3 or 4, I grab him and don't look back. There probably will be players drafted after him who will come in and make a quicker impact but it isn't about who's the best player next season. No one would take Landry Fields over Derrick Favors except for mentally warped Knicks fans. It's about which player gives you the best opportunity for long term success when its time to start winning games. Jones IMO is that guy.

True Dat

And I trust EG to scout that situation properly.

With the players who will be available top 6-7, and the remaining pieces available lower in the first round, it is hard to see how they don't come out of this draft with more of what they need.

They should have a ton of assets by next year and most of them first and second year players.
Plus other more seasoned young players in Dray and McGee
Plus a player who should be in his prime in Nick
Plus a solid dude vet in Lewis. If he is healthy and can get back to the SF/PF form he showed us.

Who knows how many they will win, but they should have a lot of energy and legs.

Franchise on the rise.

[hands11]

Like many here the two players i am really interested in are Kanter and DWill. I think i might take Perry over Barnes.

I think I would definitely take Perry over Barnes.

But I don't know that would even be a choice. Isn't Barnes staying in school?

[hands11]

I like hearing that Williams thinks of himself as a 3/4. You are what you think you are, not who someone else thinks you are. I like him much better as a 3 but he can certainly match up as a 4 in long stretches when teams go small.

If Perry Jones sees himself as a SF, then that's what he should play as long as he's got the ability to do so. I know many on here don't like Perry but remember the jump that Williams made from his freshman to sophomore season? Williams averaged nearly 16 & 7. Would anyone have taken Williams with a top 5 pick last year? Jones averaged nearly 14 & 7 with an absolutely terrible back court playing in a system that didn't utilize any of his talents. Another comparison would be Favors who was in a similar scenario to Jones. Favors played with a terrible backcourt and suffered from poor coaching. He averaged 12 & 8. Many people here would gladly trade the 1st pick this year for Favors who was the 3rd pick last year. So when people say how can you draft a player so high who played so poorly and couldn't do anything at the college level, I kind of thinking they are letting they're hate of potential cloud their judgement. Drafting in the NBA is a tricky and imperfect process. This is not like football where you are looking for the most ready made prospect. Or trying to draft the safest player available. If it was all about who scored the most or who got the most rebounds, Nick Fazekas would have been an all-star and we'd be extolling the virtues of Andrew Goudelock right now.

Going back to the general hate of potential. I think the board is collectively suffering from Kwamblajavitis. I guess were tired of waiting for potential to develop after watching Kwame for 4 years, Blatche for 6 and McGee for 3 with very mixed results at best. But not all propsects are created equal. I don't think you can let a previous bad experience influence your decisions in the future. Every prospect is different. I don't like the Blatche/Jones comparisons at all because I don't think they are nothing alike. Jones has a different makeup. Jones seems like a more cerebral cat. He's definitely 2 or 3 steps quicker and probably doesn't have an equal athletically in his 6-10 frame. He's explosive and cat quick, everything Blatche is not. And I don't see the selfishness or immaturity that has plagued Blatche into his 20s.

Personally I'd take Williams with my pick and be okay with it. But if we don't end up with the #1 pick and Jones is one the board and were picking at 3 or 4, I grab him and don't look back. There probably will be players drafted after him who will come in and make a quicker impact but it isn't about who's the best player next season. No one would take Landry Fields over Derrick Favors except for mentally warped Knicks fans. It's about which player gives you the best opportunity for long term success when its time to start winning games. Jones IMO is that guy.

Great post Dat2U. You make a compelling argument.

My biggest concern about Perry is that it doesn't look like he has a motor. He has a Blatche-like tendency to stare at the ball rather than moving instinctively to a position where he can make an impact on the play. I think that's an innate trait, and not one that can be substantially improved upon.

If anything, I think the "he's just a freshman" argument applies more to Harrison Barnes. Barnes at least appears to have the right instincts to be a winning basketball player. I share your concerns that he's little more than a jumpshooter right now, but I think that's something that he CAN improve upon in time. I think Barnes will have a pro experience similar to James Harden. He'll start off as a role player just trying to fit in. But over time, once the opportunity presents itself, he'll step up and become more of a primary threat.

I could see that being the case with Barnes

Regarding Perry though. If you are playing out of position and on a team that doesn't pass you the ball, maybe the running around thing would get a little old. Specially when you are the best player on the team.

At SF with Wall and Crawford setting him up, I think he would have to be more active. How could you not be in that situation ?

[Benjammin]

As of this evening, this is my board for the Wizards. By tomorrow or later tonight, I'd probably have a different one.

1.PG Kyrie Irving---only as a trade chip but I think he'll go #1 if he declares for the draft.
2.SF/PF Derrick Williams---there are tweener concerns but he can flat out score, which is sort of useful in basketball.
3. SF Perry Jones---Now this is where it gets difficult. I think when teams do individual workouts the love affair will begin all over again for Jones. He is the classic boom/bust pick.
4. SF Harrison Barnes---In a good draft he'd be an excellent 8th pick or so. But he is young, I like his demeanor and he should at least be a solid piece.(Sullinger if he came out would be in this 4-6 range)
5. PF/C Enes Kanter---Really a mystery man for most who are honest. He could move up to 3 with a good pre-draft showing.
6. C Jonas Valancunias--Another guy who you have to project how he will develop. But you can't coach height and he does have some skills and athletic ability.
7.PG Kemba Walker--The Wizards don't have a need for him, but I like his heart and scoring ability. He could go higher for teams with a need for a PG.
8. PG Brandon Knight---Apparently he's zooming up draft boards. Again, not at a need position for the Wizards.
9. SF/PF Jan Vesely--Another Euro with intriguing possibilities but also many questions.

[hands11]

Players with the heart to compete. That should be an almost equal factor to the usual basketball skills.
Arizona could have easily lost to Duke if it wasn't for Williams putting the team on his back, giving them a chance to make the second half relevant.

Put one of Henson or Zeller on Arizona's squad and they'll likely still be playing. On the flip-slide, if Barnes not Williams was on Arizona's team, they would have lost in the first or second round. Barnes doesn't have the makeup to will a team to victory.

One thing about Williams' game that should get more mention is the fouls he draws. It seems like one out of every four plays or so ends up being a foul because of the physical nature of his game. Defenders have to match his physicality and the offensive player always gets more leeway.

The Wizards hardly put players in foul trouble and adding this dimension of the game would certainly help.

This is one reason I want to move Dray to C. I would like to see my PF drawing fouls. Wall will draw them. So will Crawford. Nick won't draw a lot unless he learns to get players to bit on a pump fake. Other than that, Nick is trying to get open to shot more than draw a foul. Dray at PF is looking to avoid contact also so he needs moved to center, or back up PF/C or off the team. R Lewis doesn't draw of lot of fouls either but if he returns healthy where he can get in the post like he was more this year, he could draw some. Booker will draw them at PF.

So yeah, short term, D Williams is the easier choice if you are looking to fix that issue next year.
Longer term, Jones may be the better pick. If he doesn't draw enough fouls, you have that in a PF later.

I think the Wizards are going to get the PF/SG/SF thing figured out a year or two earlier than they figure out the PF/C position.

Now the big X factor is Dray. If he has a return to 7DD summer and comes back with a more developed upper body, that could make a big difference.

[FAH1223]

uh, don't count on Dray... he has disappointed and he will disappoint even more with a LONG offseason (lockout version)... he will come to camp fat and with a couple run ins with the law.

[hands11]

uh, don't count on Dray... he has disappointed and he will disappoint even more with a LONG offseason (lockout version)... he will come to camp fat and with a couple run ins with the law.

Wonderful insight. Thanks for sharing.

[FAH1223]

uh, don't count on Dray... he has disappointed and he will disappoint even more with a LONG offseason (lockout version)... he will come to camp fat and with a couple run ins with the law.

Wonderful insight. Thanks for sharing.

7 Day Dray was 2009, we are in 2011. The guy thinks he is a star when he isn't.

I was a Dray fan, but the guy is a lost cause IMO and not worth even thinking about long term as piece.

Lose your faith in him, it'll be better for you

[Dat2U]

Barnes just seems like a high volume jump shooter. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see the ball-handling, first step explosiveness or finishing ability. He's struggles to excel at these traits on the college level so it's hard to imagine that those traits will improve once he faces pro competition.

P. Jones has a much better physical profile than Barnes. Jones IMO is a better off the bounce, is more explosive and is much better finisher. Not to mention he's got better size.

I don't hate Barnes, just not in love with him. I think he's an okay pick late in the lottery but I wouldn't dare take him in the top 5. And Nate33 mentioned Barnes having the "right instincts to be a winning basketball player". Lets all remember how Barnes played earlier this season when Larry Drew III was his PG instead of Kendall Marshall. He was a bigger disappointment than PJ III and there were questions regarding his heart and competitive fire. It goes to show you how PG play on the college level can impact the level of play of their teammates. UNC was dead in the water before the switch was made. Unfortunately for Perry Jones & Baylor, they didn't have a Kendall Marshall to go off the bench.

[pancakes3]

i may be the only one, but i really don't like the Williams pick. sf/pf tweeners could do awesome - Crash/Marion, or they can fizzle out like Marvin Williams/Beasley. compound that with the fact that we're already GOT a sf/pf tweener already in Lewis and he's immovable because of his max contract, i really don't think we should go BPA in this case. Plus it's not like D Will is significantly better than the other choices available. it's not like we've got Tim Duncan sitting atop the draft boards and we're stroking our chins, thinking about taking that Chauncey Billups kid.

i think this is the year that we package our pick. the #5 for foye and miller was a terrible deal. hopefully this time around we can package the #3 for something nicer. greg monroe is at the top of this wish list.

[jholmbe1]

I think the wizards will pick perry jones if derrick williams is gone. they took mcgee because of his potential , and perry has one of the greatest potential ive ever seen. 6"10 with offensive game, Great speed , great handle , him and blatche and mcgee can be the biggest frontcourt in the leauge.

And play like the smallest and dumbest in the league.

[Rafael122]

Reading up on the Morris Twins and I wonder if we already have a player on the roster similar to them: Booker. Morris Twins are more polished offensively, but Marcus is only 6'9'' while his brother Markieff is 6'11'' (but probably is a 2nd round pick).

[nate33]

Reading up on the Morris Twins and I wonder if we already have a player on the roster similar to them: Booker. Morris Twins are more polished offensively, but Marcus is only 6'9'' while his brother Markieff is 6'11'' (but probably is a 2nd round pick).

Agreed. We already have three backup-caliber big men on the roster (Booker, Blatche, Seraphin, and arguably McGee too, though hopefully he'll develop into a legit starter). We don't need more. What we need is a starter. We're going to find that guy with our top pick, not our #20.

Say no to the Morris twins, Kenneth Faried, Tristan Thompsan and the other backup-caliber bigs.

[Halcyon]

More and more I am starting to lean towards Kanter. This is based more on what I've seen from other potential prospects, rather than additional info I have gathered on Kanter. Barnes may end up being a guy like Deng who is a very solid player, but not a huge difference maker by any means. Cannot create off the dribble, will end up being a jump shooter primarily, and be a solid defender. Irving doesn't fit into our plans, Sullinger looks like he may be staying in school, Jones seems like a drifter, Williams may be good offensively but may be overmatched on defense.

Kanter seems like the only guy who has a defined position, with the skills and size needed for that position, and fills a need that we have.

[theboomking]

i may be the only one, but i really don't like the Williams pick. sf/pf tweeners could do awesome - Crash/Marion, or they can fizzle out like Marvin Williams/Beasley. compound that with the fact that we're already GOT a sf/pf tweener already in Lewis and he's immovable because of his max contract, i really don't think we should go BPA in this case. Plus it's not like D Will is significantly better than the other choices available. it's not like we've got Tim Duncan sitting atop the draft boards and we're stroking our chins, thinking about taking that Chauncey Billups kid.

i think this is the year that we package our pick. the #5 for foye and miller was a terrible deal. hopefully this time around we can package the #3 for something nicer. greg monroe is at the top of this wish list.

I sort of agree. I like Williams, but I think people are overly enamoured with him. Williams may want to play the 3, but I have seen no evidence of any ability to handle the basketball at the level an NBA 3 should. Wiliams does however have a blazing first step, and drives the lane quite well off of one or two dribbles. I have not seen Williams create a shot off of the dribble. He certainly won't be bringing the ball up the floor, but it would be nice to see a bsic crossover, a step back jumpshot, or just any ability to create a shot off of the dribble. Can Williams guard an NBA SF? He hasn't done it in college, so I guess we don't really know. You'd like to think he is athletic enough, but that is a supposition.

At the 4, Williams has been overmatched by longer defenders. If he can transition to the 3, then he will be an INCREDIBLY strong SF, and will be a size/strength mismatch against almost anyone. His rebounding as a SF should also be superlative. I'm just not convincedthe rest of his game will translate at SF.

For everyone that keeps hammering Barnes and Sullinger, and lauding Williams, I don't think the picture is that clear. Yes, Williams is more athletic than either of the afforementioned players. Williams has been more efficient than Barnes by a good Margin. We have to remember though, that Barnes and Sullinger are both freshman. Noone would be talking about selecting Williams at #1 overall based on his performance last year. Barnes and Sullinger both at least play a clear, well defined position on the court. I'm not sure if that is true about Williams.

Their numbers for the tournament are also not as different as you'd think.

DWilliams:
22.75 ppg on .418 shooting with 9.25 rpg and 1.65pps

HBarnesZ:
18.5ppg on .413 shooting 8.25rpg and .986pps

JSullinger:
16.66ppg on .613 shooting 11rpg and 1.61ppg

I think Williams played the toughest schedule, but Sullinger's numbers look as good or better, and he is a freshman. Barnes had very similar numbers to Williams, except for pps. It is Williams' ability to get to the foul line that made the difference here.

Sullinger has better athleticism than advertised, and decent length, although he lacks height. He's very heady and physical and is a true PF, not a tweener. Barnes has very good length, and is a good, but not athlete. His shot is smooth, but he needs to improve his accuracy. Barnes plays SF, is not a tweener, can create a shot anytime he wants one, and came up huge at the end of games for Carolina this year. Perry Jones didn't produce well this year, but iwas being played out of position, by all reports is a good, hard working kid, trhat obviously has off the charts athleticism and length. How much did Russel Westbrook produce at UCLA? Would I draft Williams ahead of Sullinger and Barnes? Maybe. But it isn't the chipshot that much of this board is making it seem. I would strongly consider gonig with Perry Jones over Williams based on upside.

[theboomking]

More and more I am starting to lean towards Kanter. This is based more on what I've seen from other potential prospects, rather than additional info I have gathered on Kanter. Barnes may end up being a guy like Deng who is a very solid player, but not a huge difference maker by any means. Cannot create off the dribble, will end up being a jump shooter primarily, and be a solid defender. Irving doesn't fit into our plans, Sullinger looks like he may be staying in school, Jones seems like a drifter, Williams may be good offensively but may be overmatched on defense.

Kanter seems like the only guy who has a defined position, with the skills and size needed for that position, and fills a need that we have.

Sorry for the double post, but I wanted to say that I agree, and really, really like Kanter as a prospect.