2015 Free Agency and Offseason Part 1

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The important number on his stat line is 297 - his minutes played. That's a paltry minutes total. Essentially, it is pure garbage time. Nobody is playing any defense and nobody has done any scouting.

If he was even half decent, the team would find a way to get him 600-1000 minutes even on a loaded team. My guess is that the reason he doesn't play much is because he can't play defense.

Or, the coach could have Teague, Korver, Sefolosha, Schroeder, Bazemore, and Shelvin Mack all playing well for a 60+ win team and all ahead of Jenkins. None of them make Jenkins a lesser player. Jenkins is not a good defender but overall, I would not call him a liability until I see more evidence.

Drew Gooden, Rasual Butler, and Garrett Temple each went from few minutes to playing well.

Minutes played don't mean much to me.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

There will be a tremendous amount of pressure applied to Wall and Beal from Atlanta guards next round.

[fishercob]

The important number on his stat line is 297 - his minutes played. That's a paltry minutes total. Essentially, it is pure garbage time. Nobody is playing any defense and nobody has done any scouting.

If he was even half decent, the team would find a way to get him 600-1000 minutes even on a loaded team. My guess is that the reason he doesn't play much is because he can't play defense.

Or, the coach could have Teague, Korver, Sefolosha, Schroeder, Bazemore, and Shelvin Mack all playing well for a 60+ win team and all ahead of Jenkins. None of them make Jenkins a lesser player. Jenkins is not a good defender but overall, I would not call him a liability until I see more evidence.

Drew Gooden, Rasual Butler, and Garrett Temple each went from few minutes to playing well.

Minutes played don't mean much to me.

Jeez, I forgot about Thabo and Bazemore too. Jenkins just had no opportunity.

AGain, I'm not saying Jenkins is guaranteed to be anything, but he intrigues me.

Mills, Green, Jenkins through three seasons.
Mills, Green and Jenkins through two seasons.

[nate33]

Don't get me wrong. He may be a decent player that just hasn't had an opportunity. I'm just saying it's useless to use his existing garbage time numbers as evidence of that. His existing numbers are meaningless. He is an unknown.

[fishercob]

Don't get me wrong. He may be a decent player that just hasn't had an opportunity. I'm just saying it's useless to use his existing garbage time numbers as evidence of that. His existing numbers are meaningless. He is an unknown.

So if that is the case, how do you evaluate a guy like this? Getting a rotation worthy player on the cheap -- particularly a young one -- could be a huge asset. The Wiz MO has seemed to be to go with the "known commodity" even if that guy is old and breaking down.

[nate33]

I think you evaluate him the same way you would evaluate a draft pick. You watch film. You look at his numbers in established settings against known competition (college, and his non-garbage-time NBA minutes).

It might be useful to dig up his numbers excluding times when the point disparity exceeds 10 points and ignoring the last 3 minutes of blowout games.

Here are his shooting stats counting only the shots taken with the point disparity was +/- 10 or less:
http://bkref.com/tiny/azXXq

He shot 39% FG overall and 32% from 3 this year. He looked better two years ago with a larger sample size.

[payitforward]

...Jenkins was the scorer on a Vanderbilt University team that also had Festus Ezeli and Jeffrey Taylor. He's a pure shooter much like JJ Redick. He is small for a SG and not a good enough ball handler to be a PG.

I wanted Jenkins in round two the year he declared.

In this draft Olivier Hanlan is similar to James Jenkins. I think Hanlan will be a better player.

Jenkins went #23 in 2012 -- higher than expected, much higher than he should have gone.

CCJ -- you can't have wanted *everybody* in R2 that year!! And if Jenkins had been available when we took Satoransky, I hope you'd have passed on him for Will Barton, who has been a very nice pick up for the Nuggets after wasting away in Portland a couple of years.

More importantly, a sizable handful of R2 picks that year have turned out much better than Jenkins: Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Bernard James, Quincy Acy, Kris Middleton, Barton, Kyle O'Quinn, Fulkan Aldemir, etc. Not to mention guys taken after him in R1 like Plumlee and Wroten.

Jenkins lacks athleticism, unfortunately -- he can definitely shoot!

[likwitdesi]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/brazilian- ... 53713.html

Is this guy an upgrade over Sessions?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Don't get me wrong. He may be a decent player that just hasn't had an opportunity. I'm just saying it's useless to use his existing garbage time numbers as evidence of that. His existing numbers are meaningless. He is an unknown.

So if that is the case, how do you evaluate a guy like this? Getting a rotation worthy player on the cheap -- particularly a young one -- could be a huge asset. The Wiz MO has seemed to be to go with the "known commodity" even if that guy is old and breaking down.

Jenkins is a first round talent who is still very young. He is exactly the type player you want to add behind Beal.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

...Jenkins was the scorer on a Vanderbilt University team that also had Festus Ezeli and Jeffrey Taylor. He's a pure shooter much like JJ Redick. He is small for a SG and not a good enough ball handler to be a PG.

I wanted Jenkins in round two the year he declared.

In this draft Olivier Hanlan is similar to James Jenkins. I think Hanlan will be a better player.

Jenkins went #23 in 2012 -- higher than expected, much higher than he should have gone.

CCJ -- you can't have wanted *everybody* in R2 that year!! And if Jenkins had been available when we took Satoransky, I hope you'd have passed on him for Will Barton, who has been a very nice pick up for the Nuggets after wasting away in Portland a couple of years.

More importantly, a sizable handful of R2 picks that year have turned out much better than Jenkins: Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Bernard James, Quincy Acy, Kris Middleton, Barton, Kyle O'Quinn, Fulkan Aldemir, etc. Not to mention guys taken after him in R1 like Plumlee and Wroten.

Jenkins lacks athleticism, unfortunately -- he can definitely shoot!

Barton is an even better player than Jenkins.

Who did I like that wasn't any good?

I believe the difference between round two and round one is not that wide. Guys like Tariq Black, Vander Blue, Jason Clarkson, etc fall into round two because they lack height, or they are not freshmen (huge draft bias is for frosh), or because they didn't go to Duke or Kentucky. Most of the round two picks who don't make it are merely victims of numbers crunch and guaranteed contracts. Talent is NOT that widely different.

Guys like Jack Cooley and Mike Muscala eventually wind up on NBA rosters. Players like Pablo Prigioni, Bogdanovich (sp?), and Antic have me CONVINCED international play has caught up with the NBA for the most part.

Payitforward, I think guys like Andre Roberson are pretty easy to project as succeeding in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard was a no-brainer. So was Faried.

If he's healthy Justin Anderson belongs in the lottery.

Even though he can't dribble and he's short for a SG; I have a hard time seeing Dez Wells fail to make the Wizards. Intelligence, charisma, intensity, strength, leaping ability, finishing around the rim, and ability to guard multiple positions make him a guy currently projected in round two who is near can't-miss.

There are a LOT of players better than Dez Wells, but do you think RJ Hunter is more pro-ready? I don't.

Wells is a no-brainer at 49, but I won't be mad if the Wizards see how Alan Williams' conditioning and shoulders are. He's a lot like the kid out of Tennessee who Memphis drafted.


EDITED -- thanks for correcting me pif. I forgot Jenkins went #23

[gambitx777]

I feel like we need to let kevin walk and maybe trade Blair. I also feel like we need to move NENE to permanent back up center. I also think we should go after KJ McDaniels

[hands11]

I'm leaning toward them drafting a PG ala Dennis Schroeder or a combo like CJM

Tyus Jones ? http://www.draftexpress.com/video/11686/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tyus-Jones-46062/

If he is there for us. Pretty sure the Wizards pick him. He is the perfect fit to back up Wall.

and get a strong body SF defensive specialist. Crowder ish. Al-Farouq Aminu

I don't think we are adding a S4 unless we lose Gooden.

[Wizardspride]

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-a ... t-is-next/

Wallace remains the lone veteran contract Boston would like to move and sources say the Celtics would be willing to part with one of the half dozen or so first-round draft picks they have amassed to move him this offseason. Wallace will be entering the final year of his contract and is owed $10.1 million.

[J-Ves]

I'm leaning toward them drafting a PG ala Dennis Schroeder or a combo like CJM

Tyus Jones ? http://www.draftexpress.com/video/11686/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tyus-Jones-46062/

If he is there for us. Pretty sure the Wizards pick him. He is the perfect fit to back up Wall.

and get a strong body SF defensive specialist. Crowder ish. Al-Farouq Aminu

I don't think we are adding a S4 unless we lose Gooden.

Hes the guy I want If we are drafting a guard. Hes young and already great at running the PnR, not a great shooter in college but solid and likely to improve. DX has one of his negatives as low upside, but thats a hard thing to determine for a guy who is only 18 even if he doesn't have good physical tools. With that said I do have my heart set on a PF, if one of Portis, Lyles, or Looney are available it will be hard to let him slip by.

[hands11]

I'm leaning toward them drafting a PG ala Dennis Schroeder or a combo like CJM

Tyus Jones ? http://www.draftexpress.com/video/11686/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tyus-Jones-46062/

If he is there for us. Pretty sure the Wizards pick him. He is the perfect fit to back up Wall.

and get a strong body SF defensive specialist. Crowder ish. Al-Farouq Aminu

I don't think we are adding a S4 unless we lose Gooden.

Hes the guy I want If we are drafting a guard. Hes young and already great at running the PnR, not a great shooter in college but solid and likely to improve. DX has one of his negatives as low upside, but thats a hard thing to determine for a guy who is only 18 even if he doesn't have good physical tools. With that said I do have my heart set on a PF, if one of Portis, Lyles, or Looney are available it will be hard to let him slip by.

Unless there is a sleeper elite stud there, all things being equal, you go PG. Time and fit matters a lot.

Wall will be in like year 5 next year. Session has been good for us and will back up PG next year. So stack the deck now by drafting a good prospect that back up Wall moving forward. Get those young legs in next year and get them red shirted for a year where Wall and Session can start teaching them about the NBA game.

While the front court has some long term questions. Its mostly good for now. I wouldn't use the first pick there. Beside, you land KD to play PF, and everything changes regarding an major concerns adding talent there.

And Thomas is still in the running to eventually come over as a SG so adding that next year isn't more important to me timing wise.

I think they will try to resign Kevin. He still has value as a young strong back up front court player. And if they sign him, Blair can go so that opens a slot.

But I'm not to my final conclusions yet. I spend more the season focused on the team this year, not the draft.
What to do with the 2nd round pick is the question. do they get a Jordan Mickey. A draft and stash. Or try to use that pick to more Webster ?

[J-Ves]

I'm leaning toward them drafting a PG ala Dennis Schroeder or a combo like CJM

Tyus Jones ? http://www.draftexpress.com/video/11686/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tyus-Jones-46062/

If he is there for us. Pretty sure the Wizards pick him. He is the perfect fit to back up Wall.

and get a strong body SF defensive specialist. Crowder ish. Al-Farouq Aminu

I don't think we are adding a S4 unless we lose Gooden.

Hes the guy I want If we are drafting a guard. Hes young and already great at running the PnR, not a great shooter in college but solid and likely to improve. DX has one of his negatives as low upside, but thats a hard thing to determine for a guy who is only 18 even if he doesn't have good physical tools. With that said I do have my heart set on a PF, if one of Portis, Lyles, or Looney are available it will be hard to let him slip by.

Unless there is a sleep elite stud there, all things being equal, you go PG. Time and fit matters a lot.

Wall will be in like year 5 next year. Session has been good for us and will back up PG next year. So stack the deck now by drafting a good prospect that back up Wall moving forward. Get those young legs in next year and get them red shirted for a year where Wall and Session can start teaching them about the NBA game.

While the front court has some long term questions. Its mostly good for now. I wouldn't use the first pick there. Beside, you land KD to play PF, and everything changes regarding an major concerns adding talent there.

And Thomas is still in the running to eventually come over as a SG so adding that next year isn't more important to me timing wise.

I think they will try to resign Kevin. He still has value as a young strong back up front court player. And if they sign him, Blair can go so that opens a slot.

But I'm not to my final conclusions yet. I spend more the season focused on the team this year, not the draft.
What to do with the 2nd round pick is the question. do they get a Jordan Mickey. A draft and stash. Or try to use that pick to more Webster ?

I think we traded the 2nd round pick in the Humphries deal. Not 100% tho. If not I have zero insight into who we pick or even who I want. I guess I'd go with whoever CCJ likes best.

And to your point about drafting a big this year, I don't think who we have on the roster is going to affect who we draft. If Gooden, KS, and Hump are all on the roster next year it still pays to have a young big to develop for the future. All three of the PFs I listed have better than average upside for a 19th pick. Looney has length and shooting ability, Portis has an advanced offensive game including the ability to shoot, and Lyles has the size to play both PF and C and looks to be very coordinated for a big man. I would be pretty excited to get any one of them.

[payitforward]

...Jenkins was the scorer on a Vanderbilt University team that also had Festus Ezeli and Jeffrey Taylor. He's a pure shooter much like JJ Redick. He is small for a SG and not a good enough ball handler to be a PG.

I wanted Jenkins in round two the year he declared.

In this draft Olivier Hanlan is similar to James Jenkins. I think Hanlan will be a better player.

Jenkins went #23 in 2012 -- higher than expected, much higher than he should have gone.

CCJ -- you can't have wanted *everybody* in R2 that year!! And if Jenkins had been available when we took Satoransky, I hope you'd have passed on him for Will Barton, who has been a very nice pick up for the Nuggets after wasting away in Portland a couple of years.

More importantly, a sizable handful of R2 picks that year have turned out much better than Jenkins: Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Bernard James, Quincy Acy, Kris Middleton, Barton, Kyle O'Quinn, Fulkan Aldemir, etc. Not to mention guys taken after him in R1 like Plumlee and Wroten.

Jenkins lacks athleticism, unfortunately -- he can definitely shoot!

Barton is an even better player than Jenkins.

Who did I like that wasn't any good?

I believe the difference between round two and round one is not that wide. Guys like Tariq Black, Vander Blue, Jason Clarkson, etc fall into round two because they lack height, or they are not freshmen (huge draft bias is for frosh), or because they didn't go to Duke or Kentucky. Most of the round two picks who don't make it are merely victims of numbers crunch and guaranteed contracts. Talent is NOT that widely different.

Guys like Jack Cooley and Mike Muscala eventually wind up on NBA rosters. Players like Pablo Prigioni, Bogdanovich (sp?), and Antic have me CONVINCED international play has caught up with the NBA for the most part.

Payitforward, I think guys like Andre Roberson are pretty easy to project as succeeding in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard was a no-brainer. So was Faried.

If he's healthy Justin Anderson belongs in the lottery.

Even though he can't dribble and he's short for a SG; I have a hard time seeing Dez Wells fail to make the Wizards. Intelligence, charisma, intensity, strength, leaping ability, finishing around the rim, and ability to guard multiple positions make him a guy currently projected in round two who is near can't-miss.

There are a LOT of players better than Dez Wells, but do you think RJ Hunter is more pro-ready? I don't.

Wells is a no-brainer at 49, but I won't be mad if the Wizards see how Alan Williams' conditioning and shoulders are. He's a lot like the kid out of Tennessee who Memphis drafted.

EDITED -- thanks for correcting me pif. I forgot Jenkins went #23

We are in violent agreement, as they say!

Just to put out something hard to disagree with, I'd say that there's no meaningful talent difference between the last 10 picks in R1 and the first 10 picks in R2. Really how could there be? How could teams and scouts ever be that accurate?

And that means high R2 picks are more valuable than low R1 picks. Why? Again, it's obvious. It's because you don't have to guarantee those high R2 guys. Pick someone like Jenkins #23, and if he doesn't work out you owe him $5m anyway. Of course, because you owe him $5m, you give him way more opportunity to work out than otherwise you would. Sometimes that's good, but as you say CCJ sometimes that means that a R2 pick gets cut -- even if he has more to offer than that other guy.

That's how someone like Danny Green becomes available to the Spurs.

[payitforward]

Hands -- I'd pick Tyus Jones if I thought he was the best player on the board when our pick came up. And he might turn out to be that. But, "time and fit matters a lot" is something I don't agree with. If there's a better player at #19, you take the better player.

A draft pick is an asset; it has value. Its value depends entirely on how good the player is. The higher the value of the guys on your roster, the easier it is to make trades. And it's through trades (and FA signings) that you adjust your roster for position.

As to Kevin -- ?? His TS% did not improve this year. His shooting didn't either. His rebounding did not improve this year. His turnovers got worse this year. Overall, he didn't improve in any meaningful way -- and this is a guy playing for his NBA life! All I can hope is that someone signs him and we don't match.

Which brings up your assessment that the front court despite "long term questions" is "mostly good for now." I don't see that: Gortat's fine. Beyond that we are looking at Nene's last season, Pierce's last season, a 35 year old Gooden (i.e. a backup at best), and a journeyman in Kris Humphries plus Seraphin who's not good -- but even if you liked him, he becomes unrestricted right after the draft.

I'd say that even drafting on need we'd be wise to look for a big! All the same, if TJ is the bpa, I take him.

[theboomking]

I agree PIF. Unless Beal turns the corner, we may eventually need to consolidate assets for a star to pair with Wall. Our only current assets are Wall, Beal and Porter. We need young talent. We should take the guy with the best chance to be good in the long term, even if he is redundant.

Having said that, if we are picking for need, we need to add youth to the front lift more than we need to add a backup PG or combo guard.

This draft also aligns well with those needs as there are multiple talented bigs in this draft. I might even try to get an offensive guy like Portis and a defensive guy if I could add picks.

Myles Turner and Kaminsky are going to go too high. We may need to live up a few slots for Portis if we want him.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Long-term, the roster has loads of questions, basically everywhere. They need another guard (or two) to back up Wall and Beal (assuming Beal becomes what we all hope he'll become). They're going to need a SF/SG type to play behind Porter (assuming Porter becomes what we all hope he'll become). As payitforward notes, Gortat is fine, but he's 31 and at minimum they're going to need a backup for him. And they're going to need a new starting PF, plus a backup PF.

The only "certainty" is Wall.