Deni Avdija

[nate33]

Corner 3's at 47%.

That's really encouraging. It suggests that his catch-and-shoot 3-point stroke is fine. It's mostly his off-the-dribble 3's that need work.

[nate33]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

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People need to clarify when they say people can't shoot. One player "not shooting" isn't equivalent to everyone elses. There are ranges. His jumper might need some tweaks but let's not act like it would be shocking if he develops into a consistent shooter. IMO this is how you find value in the draft. People who have issues but you believe they are fixable. If the man was a great shooter he wouldn't be there when we drafted.

Watch on YouTube

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Read on Twitter

?s=20

He's a career 33% 3-point shooter and those numbers have gotten better every year. The 56% from the ft line was on a very small sample size 18 ft's. So when opeople throw around the fact that he's a non-shooter I have to say I'm very confused. Is jump shot perfect? No. But is it a disaster? Definitely no. It's a good value pick IMO.

I like his shooting form in those videos. And I'm encouraged that his release is pretty quick. He doesn't need a lot of time to wind up. He also is practicing shooting with minimal release time. It's not like John Wall, who seems to take 5 seconds for every one of his practice shots.

[tontoz]

I am fine with the pic. Watching his vids it looks like he has a lot of variety to his game. He can create for himself and for others.

Shot looks ok but we need a bigger sample size to get a better idea what kind of shooter he will be.

[prime1time]

I get the Sato comparisons, but Advija is a lot more aggressive than Sato. Also, Satoransky was 25 when he came to the Wiz. Advija is 19. It's going to be very interesting to see who starts at the 3: Brown Jr, Bonga or Advija. Deni won't be creating off the dribble for at least a year more likely 2 to 3 years but in terms of spacing the floor for Brad, I think he can definitely do that.

[Frichuela]

I get the Sato comparisons, but Advija is a lot more aggressive than Sato. Also, Satoransky was 25 when he came to the Wiz. Advija is 19. It's going to be very interesting to see who starts at the 3: Brown Jr, Bonga or Advija. Deni won't be creating off the dribble for at least a year more likely 2 to 3 years but in terms of spacing the floor for Brad, I think he can definitely do that.

Let me be bold..I predict Deni will take over as a starter sooner than we think, possibly mid-season if not sooner.

[payitforward]

Avdija has had success -- big time success -- at a level higher than the NCAA.

He's 19 years old.

At least one analyst called him the best prospect in this draft.

Mike Schmitz said that a few years from now, looking back, we might see Deni as the best player to come out of this entire draft.

The guys most talked about here, if Okongwu was gone, were: Achiuwa (went #20), Saddiq Bey (#19), Nesmith (#14) & Vassell (#11).

We don't know how it'll work out, of course. But I'm pretty happy that we got him at the 9th pick in the draft. Seems like quite good value. Seems like he was the highest-value target available when we picked.

[prime1time]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

People need to clarify when they say people can't shoot. One player "not shooting" isn't equivalent to everyone elses. There are ranges. His jumper might need some tweaks but let's not act like it would be shocking if he develops into a consistent shooter. IMO this is how you find value in the draft. People who have issues but you believe they are fixable. If the man was a great shooter he wouldn't be there when we drafted.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=DraftExpress

Read on Twitter

?s=20

He's a career 33% 3-point shooter and those numbers have gotten better every year. The 56% from the ft line was on a very small sample size 18 ft's. So when opeople throw around the fact that he's a non-shooter I have to say I'm very confused. Is jump shot perfect? No. But is it a disaster? Definitely no. It's a good value pick IMO.

I like his shooting form in those videos. And I'm encouraged that his release is pretty quick. He doesn't need a lot of time to wind up. He also is practicing shooting with minimal release time. It's not like John Wall, who seems to take 5 seconds for every one of his practice shots.

Wall's form is concerning. His initial movement of the ball down really slows his release. I think Advija's ceiling is a more efficient, better passing, solid defense Gallinari. Which is a very good player. I think the question for him is how does react to the athleticism, speed and quickness of other NBA players. I think having Beal to run the offense through will keep things simple for him. If he went to a team like the Knicks he would struggle. But on the Wiz he can develop into a really good player.

Tbh, I think a better ceiling might be a taller Manu. I don't see him ever being a dominant scorer, but I can see him being such a well rounded offensive player that he can kind of become whatever the team needs at the time. In small ball lineups move to the 4 or the 5. Some of the time being the point and initiating the offense. We could put him in the high and low post and use him not as a scorer but as a passer. Similar to Bogut with the Warriors.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=EvinGualberto
More than anything though we need to talk about Sheppard's vision for the Wiz. It is clear that he doesn't want one or two players pounding the ball. More than anything I think he wants a team where multiple players can initiate offense, multiple players are solid passers, solid shooters and can also put the ball on the floor.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=KevinAlbright

[leswizards]

It seems to me that Deni was at worst a coin flip as if he was bpa at 9. Some boards had Haliburton higher, some had Deni higher. I think every board I saw had Deni in the top 10. I saw some boards with Haliburton outside the top 10. As to fit, Deni has a clear path to starting and playing 36 minutes a night. Haliburton has no clear path (outside of either Wall or Beal no longer playing 36 minutes a night) to becoming a starter and playing more than 24 minutes a night. It seems to me that the pick was a no brainer.

[WizarDynasty]

[spoiler]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

People need to clarify when they say people can't shoot. One player "not shooting" isn't equivalent to everyone elses. There are ranges. His jumper might need some tweaks but let's not act like it would be shocking if he develops into a consistent shooter. IMO this is how you find value in the draft. People who have issues but you believe they are fixable. If the man was a great shooter he wouldn't be there when we drafted.



He's a career 33% 3-point shooter and those numbers have gotten better every year. The 56% from the ft line was on a very small sample size 18 ft's. So when opeople throw around the fact that he's a non-shooter I have to say I'm very confused. Is jump shot perfect? No. But is it a disaster? Definitely no. It's a good value pick IMO.

I like his shooting form in those videos. And I'm encouraged that his release is pretty quick. He doesn't need a lot of time to wind up. He also is practicing shooting with minimal release time. It's not like John Wall, who seems to take 5 seconds for every one of his practice shots.

Wall's form is concerning. His initial movement of the ball down really slows his release. I think Advija's ceiling is a more efficient, better passing, solid defense Gallinari. Which is a very good player. I think the question for him is how does react to the athleticism, speed and quickness of other NBA players. I think having Beal to run the offense through will keep things simple for him. If he went to a team like the Knicks he would struggle. But on the Wiz he can develop into a really good player.

Tbh, I think a better ceiling might be a taller Manu. I don't see him ever being a dominant scorer, but I can see him being such a well rounded offensive player that he can kind of become whatever the team needs at the time. In small ball lineups move to the 4 or the 5. Some of the time being the point and initiating the offense. We could put him in the high and low post and use him not as a scorer but as a passer. Similar to Bogut with the Warriors.

More than anything though we need to talk about Sheppard's vision for the Wiz. It is clear that he doesn't want one or two players pounding the ball. More than anything I think he wants a team where multiple players can initiate offense, multiple players are solid passers, solid shooters and can also put the ball on the floor.


Wall's form is concerning. His initial movement of the ball down really slows his release. I think Advija's ceiling is a more efficient, better passing, solid defense Gallinari. Which is a very good player. I think the question for him is how does react to the athleticism, speed and quickness of other NBA players. I think having Beal to run the offense through will keep things simple for him. If he went to a team like the Knicks he would struggle. But on the Wiz he can develop into a really good player.
very true, when you see the ball going down, his hips are actually suppose to be sinking before he even catches the ball. His hips are suppose to continue dipping until his elbow is pointing to the rim, at that exact moment is when his hips begin to rise.

IF you pay close attention, Wall is suppose to have a lower arch in his back prior to catching the ball.
He is also suppose to have a lower arch before he begins to rise into his jumpshot. This is the same problem i see with Deni."
THe less athletic you are, the less you are able to arch your lower back before rising into your shot. Poor shooters try to arch their back after they begin to rise.
elite shooters who shoot off the bounce arch their lower back as they are dipping their hips before they even go into their shot motion. Their lower back is alread y arch and they have their hips deeply bent before they even catch the ball.
Being able to dribble with deeply bent hips and "lower back arch at all times" is something Wall can't do. He is not athletic enough to do it, and neither is DENI


Pat attention to Paul Pierce shooting off the dribble with deep bent hips, and lower arch, he power bounces the ball and catches it with his elbow already pointing at the rim". This is elite athleticism with hip and back arch coordination" At 1:26 mark.

Before he even gathers the ball, he already has his hips deeply bent and lower back arched, this is off the dribble. The mods disabled by youtube code so I have to use a URL instead.
https://youtu.be/_uF5k0S2cE0?t=145

https://youtu.be/_uF5k0S2cE0?t=145
[youtube]_uF5k0S2cE0?t=150[/youtube]

Now go look at Deni's form when he is shooting off the dribble. His back is never arched, his elbow is never pointed to the rim like Paul's is?
Same thing with Wall. this is a reflection of WIZ scouting and the Grunfeld/ Shep front office. they don't know the product!!

https://youtu.be/_uF5k0S2cE0https://www.youtube.com/_uF5k0S2cE0
Hopefully Leonsis read this and understands why his scouting department failed him. Any player on the roster that doesn't have a deep hip bend and lower arch prior to rising into their jumpshot should be benched or traded if they can't fix it. Including Deni and Wall

[youtube]https://youtu.be/AcfoCtWFALE?t=55[/youtube]
https://youtu.be/AcfoCtWFALE?t=55

All of this information about he can't dip his hips deeply and arch his back, with a high elbow before rising into shot. All of this information was avaialble and wizard bit when no one bit. Vesely 2.0.

His elbow is never above his eyesocket. Pay attention to where Paul Pierce's elbow is. Always above the eyesocket. VEsely 2.0. This guy is not a shooter, if he was, he would have Paul Pierce Shooting mechanics. The guy in the video doesn't even know what good form is and is basically on same knowledge level and wizard front office is. You can make your own decision by watching Paul Pierce, one of greatest off dribble shooters in history.

[Meliorus]

Avdija has had success -- big time success -- at a level higher than the NCAA.

He's 19 years old.

At least one analyst called him the best prospect in this draft.

Mike Schmitz said that a few years from now, looking back, we might see Deni as the best player to come out of this entire draft.

The guys most talked about here, if Okongwu was gone, were: Achiuwa (went #20), Saddiq Bey (#19), Nesmith (#14) & Vassell (#11).

We don't know how it'll work out, of course. But I'm pretty happy that we got him at the 9th pick in the draft. Seems like quite good value. Seems like he was the highest-value target available when we picked.

Schmitz history is suspect, he has called many players excellent and highest upside and ended up being Dragon Bender, Mario Hezonja, etc. No ESPN analyst is any good, they are all overly optimistic every player is the best player ever, when in fact you have a higher chance of being right if you're overly negative on every player.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

"No mention of how Avdija shoots, defends, or anything. Just "toughness, emotion, and passing". We don’t even need the latter 2, we need shooting and defense, Tommy. We need a PG and a defensive center, Tommy. Not a 6’10 SF/PF again. Not Israeli fans, we barely have local fans.

Feels like a backstab. How hard is it to avoid the position we least need and the skills we least need? We don’t need another SF/PF. A wing with no strengths other than "playmaking". Our backcourt dribbles the air out of the ball. Wall doesn’t let other players make plays because he doesn’t contribute off ball at all, by shooting or cutting. We already have Troy Brown and Bonga in this exact situation going into next year."

I really don't like it when our coaching staff and management starts talking about emotion and playing the right way. It's never about tangible skills, it's becoming a meme at this point.

[NatP4]

It’s Scott Brooks. What do you expect

[doclinkin]

Nothing brings out the kvetches like a Wizards draft pick.

Hayward, Kawhi, Middleton, Clarkson, Brown, Siakam shot sub 29% from three coming out of college. Beal shot 31% from three on 8 per game his first two months this season.

Read on Twitter

Look at that finishing at the rim in the half court too so not in transition. Corner 3's at 47%.

That's a pretty chart. His hot zone is John's preferred dime. And if you rush to close out he has the handles to blow past and dunk. If you lost track of him he is smart enough to drop back door to give a target. Offensively I like the kid. He's not going to be asked to shoot from the top of the key much anyway, unless it is in a pick and pop situation where he is left alone. To that point: he sets good screens and picks and is aggressive in Euro ball. He needs to learn nuance in the pick and roll game though and we have no one to teach him. Can we hire Gortat as a Big Man coach? Either way he is tough minded and competitive in Euro ball, I hope he maintains that aggression in the NBA --since our two bounced Czechs were aggro Euro/passive NBAers. But culturally the Serbian NBA tree tends to buck that trend (his dad is Serbian).

Where I am, I am fine with the kid. Happy to have him here, willing to give him room to succeed. That's our boy now. I can be happy wiht him even while I still have questions about Tommy and wish he got more from us out of this draft, aside from a future round 2 pick that he will use on a different Euroscrub that will never land here.

[closg00]

He looks worse than Rui to me.

This guy looks like he’s playing in slow motion. He looks slow and weak. Overhyped and overrated.

He’s a good passer. What Dat said about shooting is true. He looks like a pure shooter but will he convert in the NBA?

I doubt it.

CCJ - What are you thoughts on Troy Weaver's work so-far as GM @ DET? I know you wanted him as an Ernie replacement

I'm no CCJ, but Weaver sure put his stamp on the team. he got criticized for the Hayes pick, but I liked it. Thought 16 was too high for Stewart, but he's the definition of a solid big. SBey at 19 was a great pick, but he gave up Kennard to do it. Probably Kennard wanted out, and maybe Weaver wanted him out for his lack of defense. What do all of his picks have in common? They're physically tough. Overall, I'd give him a B, maybe B+.

Thx Ruz, you may have been high on Weaver too.

[nate33]

Wall's form is concerning. His initial movement of the ball down really slows his release. I think Advija's ceiling is a more efficient, better passing, solid defense Gallinari. Which is a very good player. I think the question for him is how does react to the athleticism, speed and quickness of other NBA players. I think having Beal to run the offense through will keep things simple for him. If he went to a team like the Knicks he would struggle. But on the Wiz he can develop into a really good player.

Tbh, I think a better ceiling might be a taller Manu. I don't see him ever being a dominant scorer, but I can see him being such a well rounded offensive player that he can kind of become whatever the team needs at the time. In small ball lineups move to the 4 or the 5. Some of the time being the point and initiating the offense. We could put him in the high and low post and use him not as a scorer but as a passer. Similar to Bogut with the Warriors.

I think the best-case projection of him is Gordon Hayward - a well-rounded playmaker who can do a bit of everything, but maybe can't do anything at a truly elite level.

Hayward was also a #9 pick BTW. And he was fairly lackluster in his rookie season. But then he committed to remaking his body in the offseason and he developed a 3-point shot, and suddenly he was really, really good.

[payitforward]

...Schmidtz has always loved too many prospects and had difficulty calling any busts. Most of these ESPN analysts just love everybody, there is no nuance on deciding why one guy is bad and one guy is good. So I don't think Schmidtz opinion is worth much. These guys are even more biased in the wrong direction by visiting Europe and watching in person and falling in love.

So if you ever watched Saric or Dragon Bender or Hezonja (this was the toughest one to call at the time) on draft night and thought, that guy's definitely a bust, chances are the guys at ESPN loved and adored him.

Whereas your record of calling successes & busts in the draft can be found... where?

Or, perhaps, you'd like to retail it for us?

I have no idea how good Deni Avdija is, can be, or will be. In that, we are similar, you & I. It's difficult to know that.

What I do know is that he's been really good so far at every stage of his young career. Will that translate? Hard to tell.

As to Schmitz, whose name you can't even spell, he's not always right either. Unlike you, however, he leaves his bullseyes, misses, & everything in between out there in the open where they can be seen by anyone.

Not that you or anyone, not even I, should withhold a strong opinion! I don't, that's for sure. &, as I'm sure you too would be willing to do, I try to justify what I write by using numbers.

In your case, for example, you have real references, no doubt, to support your idea that ESPN analysts become "...biased in the wrong direction by visiting Europe," although it's hard to understand what the reasons for that might be -- either for you thinking that (how would you know?) or the reasons it happens.

No doubt explaining that would be part of the narrative you provided that gave evidence of your ability to... "call 'em" I guess is the phrase?

[WizarDynasty]

Wall's form is concerning. His initial movement of the ball down really slows his release. I think Advija's ceiling is a more efficient, better passing, solid defense Gallinari. Which is a very good player. I think the question for him is how does react to the athleticism, speed and quickness of other NBA players. I think having Beal to run the offense through will keep things simple for him. If he went to a team like the Knicks he would struggle. But on the Wiz he can develop into a really good player.

Tbh, I think a better ceiling might be a taller Manu. I don't see him ever being a dominant scorer, but I can see him being such a well rounded offensive player that he can kind of become whatever the team needs at the time. In small ball lineups move to the 4 or the 5. Some of the time being the point and initiating the offense. We could put him in the high and low post and use him not as a scorer but as a passer. Similar to Bogut with the Warriors.

I think the best-case projection of him is Gordon Hayward - a well-rounded playmaker who can do a bit of everything, but maybe can't do anything at a truly elite level.

Hayward was also a #9 pick BTW. And he was fairly lackluster in his rookie season. But then he committed to remaking his body in the offseason and he developed a 3-point shot, and suddenly he was really, really good.

there is no way he is like Hayward. Look at haywards lower back arch when he shoots. Even look at Haywards elbow above the eyesocket when he shoots from a chair. Deni almost never has his elbow at eyesocket level and Deni never has an arched lower back before he rises into his jumpshot from three or off the dribble. He is no where near as explosive as Hayward back in Utah. Hayward was much better moving laterally.
Deni is 6'9 but he really has a long neck. His standing reach was 8'4 with a 6'9 standing reach. that was his last measurement. It shows in his clips because he is a poor rebounder. We needed a forward with 9'2 standing reach and elite lateral footwork. We drafted a bust that doesn't have room defensively to grow, there is nothing about him physically that is elite. I hate to be the downer but we blunder Vesely 2.0 and I would chose vassell before this guy. Achiuwa was still on board. In a few years when we see this guy is a horribe shooter and defender, you guys will come back to this thread just like you did with the Otto Porter and vesely thread and realize how bad the front office is. I repeated over and over and over who should be picked and front office ignored and drafted a bust.

and we went through the same thing years ago. A bunch of teams passed on K. Leonard and the excuse of hte wizards was.. hey we were not the only fools that passed on Leonard. The same excuse will be made this year. Hey we weren't the only ones that passed on Achiuwa, he fell to pick 20. That will be the excuse that the F.O. uses when they are begging to not be replaced by Leonsis when the results are in and they see how horrible a defense player this guy is laterally, and how they literally are going to have to rebuild his jumpshot from scratch because he doesn't have good back arch and hip bend off the dribble. The elite offices easily saw and I even provided free advice in this thread not to draft Deni as one of the players not to draft.
Vesely 2.0.

Watch on YouTube

[nate33]

there is no way he is like Hayward. Look at haywards lower back arch when he shoots. Even look at Haywards elbow above the eyesocket when he shoots from a chair. Deni almost never has his elbow at eyesocket level and Deni never has an arched lower back before he rises into his jumpshot from three or off the dribble.

You'll forgive me if I don't take your Knee Bend Back Arch theory of player evaluation as gospel.

[Meliorus]

...Schmidtz has always loved too many prospects and had difficulty calling any busts. Most of these ESPN analysts just love everybody, there is no nuance on deciding why one guy is bad and one guy is good. So I don't think Schmidtz opinion is worth much. These guys are even more biased in the wrong direction by visiting Europe and watching in person and falling in love.

So if you ever watched Saric or Dragon Bender or Hezonja (this was the toughest one to call at the time) on draft night and thought, that guy's definitely a bust, chances are the guys at ESPN loved and adored him.

Whereas your record of calling successes & busts in the draft can be found... where?

Or, perhaps, you'd like to retail it for us?

I have no idea how good Deni Avdija is, can be, or will be. In that, we are similar, you & I. It's difficult to know that.

What I do know is that he's been really good so far at every stage of his young career. Will that translate? Hard to tell.

As to Schmitz, whose name you can't even spell, he's not always right either. Unlike you, however, he leaves his bullseyes, misses, & everything in between out there in the open where they can be seen by anyone.

Not that you or anyone, not even I, should withhold a strong opinion! I don't, that's for sure. &, as I'm sure you too would be willing to do, I try to justify what I write by using numbers.

In your case, for example, you have real references, no doubt, to support your idea that ESPN analysts become "...biased in the wrong direction by visiting Europe," although it's hard to understand what the reasons for that might be -- either for you thinking that (how would you know?) or the reasons it happens.

No doubt explaining that would be part of the narrative you provided that gave evidence of your ability to... "call 'em" I guess is the phrase?

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1625243&p=59272355&hilit=fultz#p59272355
"Fultz, are you kidding me? He's gonna be a net negative player for a minimum of 2 years if not longer." I did say this in 2017 in GT #1 prior to Fultz's rookie year. I can go dig for more.

I don't think it should surprise people when certain players bust. I'm not sure many thought Vesely was gonna be great. I'm not sure many thought Dragon Bender was gonna be great. I think it's good to maintain a healthy dash of cynicism.

From a statistical perspective, can you defend Deni's free throw and 3 point shooting and defense in a league that values those things most? What about his dropoff in production from Israeli league to Euroleague? If his methods of scoring in the Israeli league didn't translate to the EuroLeague, why is it translating to the NBA against more elite athletes with longer wingspans? If he's so good why is he averaging 4 points in the EuroLeague where Hezonja performed better?

[WizarDynasty]

there is no way he is like Hayward. Look at haywards lower back arch when he shoots. Even look at Haywards elbow above the eyesocket when he shoots from a chair. Deni almost never has his elbow at eyesocket level and Deni never has an arched lower back before he rises into his jumpshot from three or off the dribble.

You'll forgive me if I don't take your Knee Bend Back Arch theory of player evaluation as gospel.

Look long time mod, I have been doing this for a while. He is not athletic, he is way shorter than his 6'9 stated height. He has a long neck but his standing reach was measured at 8'4.
I understand Wiz want to get a euro on the roster...to be a doncic but they blunder and drafted a bust. He can't arch his back and maintain a deep hip bend before his shot-- "this is a sign a poor functional athleticism" and he is suppose to known for his offense, not his defense. This a tragic blunder in the worse way.
Wizard will go down and making the worse pick off all teams in the lottery this year, and I know it feels bad to be a fan but this is really tragic time right now. I know it is suppose to be celebratory but maybe as fans we can put pressure to fix things in the future and not let this happen again.
This is second time we spent a lotto on Euro, this is second time Grunfeld/ Shep has done this and we has loyal fans have to suffer watching a bust for years hoping they get better and they won't. he has all the signs of a bust. and I pointed them out in this thread and the other. I hope I am wrong but evidence is staring at me and I am not going to sugar coat this for everyone. Hopefully you guys begin to develop your skills so you can see things clearly. peace i am out.

[payitforward]

@Meliorus: Fair enough -- why don't you link to that post, so we can see context & what else you said? Thanks.