2021 Draft Thread - Part II

[DCZards]

Cam Thomas reminds me of Juan Dixon, Gary Neal, Marcus Thornton, etc. Just an outright gunner with full on tunnel vision. He'll score and likely be a negative every else.

I agree with you for the most part about Thomas and his limitations. But I think he’ll be a good bit better than the guys you named. I see him being more like Jamal Crawford.

I sorta give Cam a pass regarding him being an “outright gunner.” From everything I can tell (and the 4-5 LSU games I watched) that’s what his team needed and wanted from him.

[payitforward]

Thomas is young; it's hard to project how he'll develop, how well his game can round out. Personally, I would not pick him at #15.

[payitforward]

Now, here is the mock draft a Wizards fan can really like!

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2021-nba-mock-draft-8-0-jalen-green-no-2-evan-mobley-no-3-if-picks-based-on-highest-upside/

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

Now, here is the mock draft a Wizards fan can really like!

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2021-nba-mock-draft-8-0-jalen-green-no-2-evan-mobley-no-3-if-picks-based-on-highest-upside/

Yeah, but that doesn't seem like it's an honest try at predicting the draft. It's just a ranking of the players by potential upside

[payitforward]

True....

Ok, here's a question: if you were the Houston GM, would you trade your #2 & #23 picks to Detroit for their #1 pick?

Conversely, if you were Detroit, would you seek that same deal? Would you agree to it if it were offered?

[nate33]

True....

Ok, here's a question: if you were the Houston GM, would you trade your #2 & #23 picks to Detroit for their #1 pick?

Conversely, if you were Detroit, would you seek that same deal? Would you agree to it if it were offered?

I don't see a significant reason to favor Cade over Green, so I would ultimately make that trade if I was Detroit.

However, usually the price to trade up to #1 is higher than that so I'd hold out for more. The last few seasons have shown that a future lotto pick is the price to trade up a couple of spots at the top of the draft. Atlanta got a future lotto pick (Cam Reddish at #10) to trade down from #3 to #5. The Celtics got what was believed to be a Lakers 2018 pick somewhere in the 2-5 range, which, at worst, would default to a 2019 Sacramento pick. They ended up with the SAC pick, which was the #14 pick (Romeo Langford).

[Dat2U]

True....

Ok, here's a question: if you were the Houston GM, would you trade your #2 & #23 picks to Detroit for their #1 pick?

Conversely, if you were Detroit, would you seek that same deal? Would you agree to it if it were offered?

If your Detroit, you don't settle for the #23. That's not nearly enough for the #1 pick. History says that's a horrible return.

[payitforward]

It's true, isn't it? Somehow, the #2 spot in the draft has collected way more bums than you would think it ought to!

But, I'm talking about this year. It seems to be a given that Cunningham will go #1 & either Mobley or Green will go #2.

So, making that trade you'd get one of those 2 guys instead of Cunningham. & you'd also get the #23 pick in what sure looks like a very deep draft.

For example, there's at least a 50-50 chance that Sharife Cooper, whom you like a lot, will be on the board at #23. So, if instead of Cunningham at #1, you could get Green -- along with either Cooper or another of the terrific prospects who look likely to be available at #23 -- do you go for that?

[payitforward]

True....

Ok, here's a question: if you were the Houston GM, would you trade your #2 & #23 picks to Detroit for their #1 pick?

Conversely, if you were Detroit, would you seek that same deal? Would you agree to it if it were offered?

I don't see a significant reason to favor Cade over Green, so I would ultimately make that trade if I was Detroit.

However, usually the price to trade up to #1 is higher than that so I'd hold out for more. The last few seasons have shown that a future lotto pick is the price to trade up a couple of spots at the top of the draft. Atlanta got a future lotto pick (Cam Reddish at #10) to trade down from #3 to #5. The Celtics got what was believed to be a Lakers 2018 pick somewhere in the 2-5 range, which, at worst, would default to a 2019 Sacramento pick. They ended up with the SAC pick, which was the #14 pick (Romeo Langford).

Good points!

But... a) that was to trade down 2 spots not 1, & b) it was a lotto pick in the future (you'd expect that a future payment would need to be larger & you'd have no idea who would be available).

In any case, you answered -- in the end you'd do the deal. Yet... you raised an even better point: if there's no reason to favor Cunningham over Green, why would Houston give up a R1 pick to move up?

I.e. the reason Detroit would be interested in this kind of trade is the same as the reason Houston wouldn't be. That's not usually a basis for a trade!

The situation between Houston at #2 & the Cavs at #3 might be more interesting. The Cavs have Jarrett Allen. They might be a lot more interested in Jalen Green than in Evan Mobley. But, then, so might Houston be. That's a case in which the Cavs would likely have to give a lot to move up 1 spot to #2 -- if it was possible at all.

[Dat2U]

It's true, isn't it? Somehow, the #2 spot in the draft has collected way more bums than you would think it ought to!

But, I'm talking about this year. It seems to be a given that Cunningham will go #1 & either Mobley or Green will go #2.

So, making that trade you'd get one of those 2 guys instead of Cunningham. & you'd also get the #23 pick in what sure looks like a very deep draft.

For example, there's at least a 50-50 chance that Sharife Cooper, whom you like a lot, will be on the board at #23. So, if instead of Cunningham at #1, you could get Green -- along with either Cooper or another of the terrific prospects who look likely to be available at #23 -- do you go for that?

No, it's poor asset management. The 1st pick holds a ton of intrinsic value. You should be able to get alot more than the #23 pick. I'd need that unprotected '22 first as well at a bare minimum or I talk to Cleveland at the 3.

[NatP4]

Shot looks cleaner which is great! The thing I noticed is his size. He looks like a legit 6-8. I still have him at 5 or 6. He's way out of our range at this point.

Does it? Looks like an ugly push shot with a low release, just a foot further back and it's going to fall apart, you can't accurately shoot from distance with that technique.

I'm not a shot expert but it looks quicker and smoother from some of his earlier tape. Not to say it can't get better but I see progress.

Way quicker and smoother than in the NBL. Really good sign.

[payitforward]

It's true, isn't it? Somehow, the #2 spot in the draft has collected way more bums than you would think it ought to!

But, I'm talking about this year. It seems to be a given that Cunningham will go #1 & either Mobley or Green will go #2.

So, making that trade you'd get one of those 2 guys instead of Cunningham. & you'd also get the #23 pick in what sure looks like a very deep draft.

For example, there's at least a 50-50 chance that Sharife Cooper, whom you like a lot, will be on the board at #23. So, if instead of Cunningham at #1, you could get Green -- along with either Cooper or another of the terrific prospects who look likely to be available at #23 -- do you go for that?

No, it's poor asset management. The 1st pick holds a ton of intrinsic value. You should be able to get alot more than the #23 pick. I'd need that unprotected '22 first as well at a bare minimum or I talk to Cleveland at the 3.

The assumption is that you see Cunningham & Green as equivalent. Not that you see all 3 guys including Mobley as equivalent -- if that were the case, of course, let them bid against each other.

In the current case, as I proposed it, Cleveland is irrelevant. If you deal with them, you don't get one of the two players you want; you get a third player. Still... it's always possible someone comes along & offers something you want even more than you want 1 of Cunningham or Green. In fact, that could happen after you trade #1 for #2 + #23. But, it's not in the terms of the question as I asked it.

[doclinkin]

This year more than others I bounce around on who I want. In part because the draft is so deep I want everybody. The guy who is on my mind right now is Trey Murphy III of Virginia.

To my way of thinking he is this year's DeAndre Hunter. Not just for their VIrginia background, but for similarities in their game. A true 3&D prospect with good size, ridiculously long arms, who can defend bigger than his position due to length and solid solid strength, though he doesn't assert it. He is one of the players who is an instant fit next to both Brad and Russ.

This year we suffered greatly when Bertans was unable to play. In Murphy we add a tall strong player who can slot in 2-4 depending on line-up. That versatility will help when puzzling out who to play/where when considering Deni and Rui. He approximates the ranged shooting that Bertans gives us, with upgraded defense. We can add a shooter without giving up size, and adding improved D.

His game is ready for the NBA. He will take a minute to puzzle out the longer range (especially at the elbow extended, a favorite spot of his), but that 92% FT rate suggests he will adjust. And until then he will make smart cuts to the basket and can finish at the rim and in traffic. A coach like Wes who is reportedly innovative on offense and defense alike will have trouble finding minutes for him to rest since he can fit in any configuration of players. HIs counting stats make him slip to late, if I could get him on a trade down I would, but I wouldn't count on him being available as late as most mocks have him. Still if his assist and rebounding numbers look scanty, next to Russ that won't matter, the added space underneath is what Russ needs to hoover rebounds anyway. Russ has been begging for a player who can stand outside and kill it, make smart cuts to get open for the kick out. Every team in the league has a role for this guy, this team in particular needs exactly that kind of player.

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

Never have I seen a draft with so many prospects projected between 20 and 40 who simply look like they can't miss. Trey Murphy is one of them for sure.

Maybe he doesn't have the upside Hunter has shown, but so what? We're not talking a #4 pick here but one in the 20s somewhere.

If we don't come out of this draft with 2 players, it'll be a failure. & I'd rather have 3.

[payitforward]

Along those lines, here's another thought about trading down: although the #15 simply will not get us Houston's #23 & 24 picks straight up, what if we sweeten the deal -- either by removing, or at least by lightening, the protections on the '23 R1 pick Houston got from us in the Westbrook trade?

What do you think? Something you'd do?

[dckingsfan]

Never have I seen a draft with so many prospects projected between 20 and 40 who simply look like they can't miss. Trey Murphy is one of them for sure.

Maybe he doesn't have the upside Hunter has shown, but so what? We're not talking a #4 pick here but one in the 20s somewhere.

If we don't come out of this draft with 2 players, it'll be a failure. & I'd rather have 3.

...Along those lines, here's another thought about trading down: although the #15 simply will not get us Houston's #23 & 24 picks straight up, what if we sweeten the deal -- either by removing, or at least by lightening, the protections on the '23 R1 pick Houston got from us in the Westbrook trade?

What do you think? Something you'd do?

I would absolutely trade down. There are three teams you could do this with.
Houston 2, 23, 24
New York 19, 21
Oklahoma 6, 16, 18

I think Oklahoma is out - too close. I worry that they will want to do the same with their 16th pick - but three picks is a lot to develop in a year.

I think the problem is that NY is probably thinking the same way?

Houston on the other hand wants to trade up - but for the #1 pick. They might do 14 for 23 & 24 if 2 & 15 gets the #1 - but I think this is doubtful.The other way they would do a trade is for us to remove the protections on our 2023 1st round pick? Do you take that risk? Or Wood, 23, 24 for Bryant & Hutchison 15 and removing protections on our 2023 pick. Pretty steep.

So, although I would like to see it get done - I don't see it getting done.

Edit: One more thing - I sure hope we purchase at least 1 second round pick.

[gambitx777]

Along those lines, here's another thought about trading down: although the #15 simply will not get us Houston's #23 & 24 picks straight up, what if we sweeten the deal -- either by removing, or at least by lightening, the protections on the '23 R1 pick Houston got from us in the Westbrook trade?

What do you think? Something you'd do?

Yeah I'd do it,

Something else I though of
They have cap room and they need bigs up front.

Bryant, gill and 15
For
Kenyon Martin jr, 23,24 and our 23 first back but we give them pick swap rights with us in 2023 and 2022

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

This year more than others I bounce around on who I want. In part because the draft is so deep I want everybody. The guy who is on my mind right now is Trey Murphy III of Virginia.

To my way of thinking he is this year's DeAndre Hunter. Not just for their VIrginia background, but for similarities in their game. A true 3&D prospect with good size, ridiculously long arms, who can defend bigger than his position due to length and solid solid strength, though he doesn't assert it. He is one of the players who is an instant fit next to both Brad and Russ.

This year we suffered greatly when Bertans was unable to play. In Murphy we add a tall strong player who can slot in 2-4 depending on line-up. That versatility will help when puzzling out who to play/where when considering Deni and Rui. He approximates the ranged shooting that Bertans gives us, with upgraded defense. We can add a shooter without giving up size, and adding improved D.

His game is ready for the NBA. He will take a minute to puzzle out the longer range (especially at the elbow extended, a favorite spot of his), but that 92% FT rate suggests he will adjust. And until then he will make smart cuts to the basket and can finish at the rim and in traffic. A coach like Wes who is reportedly innovative on offense and defense alike will have trouble finding minutes for him to rest since he can fit in any configuration of players. HIs counting stats make him slip to late, if I could get him on a trade down I would, but I wouldn't count on him being available as late as most mocks have him. Still if his assist and rebounding numbers look scanty, next to Russ that won't matter, the added space underneath is what Russ needs to hoover rebounds anyway. Russ has been begging for a player who can stand outside and kill it, make smart cuts to get open for the kick out. Every team in the league has a role for this guy, this team in particular needs exactly that kind of player.

Kevin O'Conner of The Ringer now has him at #14.

[nate33]

Man, I LIKE this Trey Murphy guy:

Watch on YouTube

He is a bigger, better-shooting version of Moody. Why isn't he higher in most mocks? I see shades of Otto Porter or Mikal Bridges, or at least Cam Johnson. He is very long and has surprising explosion when around the rim. And that shot is effortless and accurate. The guy could start at SF on Day 1 - at least in our offense where Russ, Beal dominate the usage and they're only asking for 3&D from the forward spots. ​

And as a bonus, he has the height and length to eventually fill out and become a 4. Even if he never develops the handle and off-the-dribble game that teams eventually want out of their SF, he'll always have the option of moving up a position. He already has all the skill you need at the 4. He just needs a bit more muscle. He's not a great rebounder, but not really as bad as his stats suggest because Virginia plays at such a slow pace.

EDIT: Looking a little deeper for red flags and I note that his lane agility and shuttle run times are really bad, though his 3/4 sprint is fine. He also looks like he tanked the standing reach to goose his vertical leap. He is 6-9.25 with a 7-0 wingspan but has a standing reach of just 8-9.5 and a vertical of 34 inches. (For comparison, Moses Moody is 3 inches shorter with a 7-0.75 wingspan but has the same standing reach.) In reality, Murphy probably has a 9-0 standing reach but a 31-inch vertical. So he's not that great of an athlete.