Deni Avdija - Part II

[80sballboy]

I was skeptical about the injury after reading some other things about it last week. It appears to be a way of getting out of playing for his country instead of just saying he has to get ready for season 4 of the NBA and can't risk another injury to slow him down early in the season. Kills two birds with one stone.

[closg00]

This influencer is picking a break-out year for Deni.

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[doclinkin]

This guy is wordier than I am, but here's a fair breakdown and assessment of Deni.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2023/7/26/23807671/deni-avdija-breakout-year-4-nba-washington-wizards

The traits fueling him that evening are the bedrock of his prowess: a 6’9 frame, range, discipline and strength. He stays down on most fakes, absorbs contact without allowing separation and can comfortably mirror changes of direction. So many wily, accomplished creators love hip and shoulder bumps to dislodge defenders for an ounce of room and Avdija usually refuses to grant that. It’s a huge boon and keeps him involved when the majority of wing stoppers might be neutralized.

The development of any of our recent draft picks are key to our short-term future. I have higher hopes for Deni than either Kispert or Davis in part because his strengths are among the skills most difficult to learn whereas his weaknesses are among the areas that players are often able to improve. All he needs is a reliable jumpshot to be useful. Added strength of course can help any player, likewise a better handle going in either direction. But really adding a league-average 3pt shot would make him playable with starters. Adding any high percentage go-to move would make him a significant asset. Here's hoping year four is where he truly earns his minutes, and expands his role.

[doclinkin]

Ultimately, it's the coach's decision, and Yam and I accepted his choices. We felt our on-court chemistry was excellent, and we needed to be in sync. By the way, I enjoy playing with everyone, but playing with Yam always gave me an extra sense of confidence because he knows me very well.

https://www.ynetnews.com/culture/article/bjr6gnqj2

Hah, makes me wish in the Zinger trade we had optioned the rights for Yam Madar from Boston.

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Shoot we could bring him over with Vukcevic since this past year they were teammates on Partizan. (Madar has now signed in Turkey though). Anyway, It was eye opening how much more confidence Deni played with in the Euro qualifiers last summer, whatever brings out that part of his game would be something to look into. Hopefully he finds his confidence in the NBA in whatever way as it does seem the thing that handicaps him is his own mindset.

On life in the world's best league, Avdija says, "Most of it isn't glamorous. The exciting things are few compared to the less exciting ones. You have to face the world's best players every day, eat and sleep properly, participate in various campaigns and advertisements and lead a life that is extremely intense. I feel it refines me as a person."
How much of your potential are you utilizing?
"At the moment, I'm not fully utilizing it. I feel that I'm capable of much more. Only I know what I'm capable of, and I think the team believes in me too. I just need to mature more, be more consistent, and everything will be fine."
How much does your mind hold you back?
"Sometimes a lot, but I'm learning to cope with it."

[Runner300]

Yam is not NBA ready. Hey may develop into Euroleague starter. Too bad he didn't stay longer with Obradovich.
Deni and him played together through all the national teams, and have good chemistry and character together.

[doclinkin]

Another area where Avdija has consistently excelled: his defensive rebounding, where he has ranked as elite compared to wings and combo forwards in all three of his NBA seasons. Last season, he collected 19.3 percent of all available defensive rebounds off missed field goals when he was on the floor, according to the advanced analytics database Cleaning the Glass, which omits stats accumulated in garbage time and heaves at the ends of quarters. The only wings and forwards leaguewide with at least 150 minutes of playing time who posted higher defensive-rebounding percentages off missed field goals last season were the New York Knicks’ Julius Randle, Atlanta Hawks’ Jalen Johnson and Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum, per Cleaning the Glass. Last January, Avdija gathered a career-high 20 rebounds in a victory over the Chicago Bulls.

Athletic. An article on Deni on scouts' opinions of his game. Another instance where players like Deni and Kuz are evaluated not as Bigs or the outdated designation of 'Power Forwards' but as 'combo' forwards. Given that switchability is at a premium in the league, it only makes sense that a player is evaluated by how well they can approximate both roles. If they are above average relative to the mean of the two positions, and you can play two switchable combo players of equivalent skill at the same time, then you come out ahead compared to playing average traditional players in both roles. Deni or Kuz may fall short compared to traditional power forwards, but better than an average 3. How much better, and if they can share the court without a drop-off in their games, is what determines if they are playable at all, or should be replaced.

In the past if there was a question mark about a tweener, we'd list the player by the position they best defended. That stopped working so well in the case of players like Antawn Jamison, who was equal opportunity sucky at defending any position but whose skill set on offense opened up the game of other players. This let the team play other tweeners at non traditional roles. Gil was an oversized PG or an undersized 2. Caron was a guard sized forward who had a better low post game than that of most Wings and SF's. However many points we gave up on defense, we stole them back at the other end.

Deni skews his definition in the opposite way, by being able to defend any position. AND is not an offensive mismatch vs any opponent. If a team defended him with a PG its not like he is going to back them into the paint to dominate them with superior size and his low-post game. The only time he has an offensive mismatch is in outrunning frontcourt players. That'd be great if we could surround him with other asphyxiating defenders, and play as the anti-Hibachi team, but the league isn't set up to allow that. And we never have doubled down on defense. Smart really since the NBA tends to tweak rules to handicap defense. High scoring games make for better ratings, happier fans. Even in losses.

Anyway. Deni really needs a move. One shot he can rely upon to score with at an above average rate. It almost doesn't matter what that is. Until then he is going to be a questionmark on the roster. Yes if he were surrounded by proficient scorers at 3-4 other positions you can afford to play him, even start him, but until he is a reliable bucket from at least one spot, he is going to lose the confidence of any coach. And then playing time, and then confidence.

That might be what it takes. If he sticks in the league, by the time he is in his prime in 4-5 years then he will surely have developed some skill on that side of the ball, once the pressure is off. Otherwise it's an even bet whether he returns to Europe and becomes a big fish in shallower waters, then never wants to return here even if his game matures.

Me, I think he's just young, and once he no longer perceives himself as the kid, but feels like he has earned his spot on the court, then maybe he will relax and not disappear for stretches of the season while he works through his frustration. Could be too that now this is no longer Beals team as the unchallenged franchise leader due to money and undue influence on the front office, maybe there's mroe oxygen for Deni to breathe.

Maybe maybe maybe. Anyway. IF ONLY Deni could shoot, seems to be the same refrain from scouts and fans and pundits. And the coach. Up to him to put in the work and add that weapon to his arsenal. Otherwise, hey, maybe we re-sign him cheap. Or draft a replacement who is unquestionably better. No more questions and maybes. I'm interested to see how it plays out. I like the guy. So does probable new leader Kuzma:

“He’s a hell of a defender, and he’s a great teammate,” combo forward Kyle Kuzma said.

[nate33]

One way or another, I think management is going to handle the Deni situation well. There are 6 possible outcomes:

1. Deni truly puts it all together this year and breaks out as Gordon Haywood tier point forward.
2. Deni develops an at least serviceable 3-ball and becomes a starting-caliber role player - a prime Nic Batum.
3. Deni shows only marginal improvement. The Wizards end up resigning him to a team friendly contract (declining salary).
4. Deni shows only marginal improvement. The Wizards trade him for a good return - at least a 1st round pick.
5. Deni shows only marginal improvement. The Wizards trade him for a bad return - two late 2nds or something.
6. Deni plateaus or regresses. The Wizards ultimately let him walk.

I'll take any of the first 4 outcomes.

[nate33]

From that Athletic article:

Beal’s off the Washington roster now. So is Porziņģis, who was Avdija’s best friend and mentor on the team.

I didn't realize that Porzingis and Avdija had developed such a relationship. My sense was that Kuzma was Avdija's friend and mentor.

[DCZards]

From that Athletic article:

Beal’s off the Washington roster now. So is Porziņģis, who was Avdija’s best friend and mentor on the team.

I didn't realize that Porzingis and Avdija had developed such a relationship. My sense was that Kuzma was Avdija's friend and mentor.

There were a number of reports last season about the close relationship between Deni and KP.

[payitforward]

I have a take on Deni similar to the take I had on Rui a year ago in the sense that he's been in the league 3 years & has not yet established himself as a plus NBA player. Overall, Deni's per-40 minutes numbers last year were not significantly different from, & not better than, his numbers in '21-22. That's not a good thing.

Whatever else one can say about him -- acknowledgement of his good defense, for example -- Deni Avdija still needs to push those numbers up by a fair amount to become a valuable NBA player.

Now, he has the advantage over Rui that he came into the league fully 2 years younger than Rui did. For that reason, it's fair to say that he has a little more runway than Rui did after 3 years. But, that's as far as it goes: Deni still has to perform, because we have to make a decision about him -- & it can't be based on anything but his performance.

In other words, this year Deni Avdija has to play at a level he hasn't reached in his first 3 years -- he has to do what he has not yet done. That's always a long shot.

Looking at nate's 6 possible outcomes, I think any except the first of them could easily result in his being traded. Not predicting, but even #6 could result in a trade ala the deal we made to move Rui.

[2Fluffy4U]

I have a take on Deni similar to the take I had on Rui a year ago in the sense that he's been in the league 3 years & has not yet established himself as a plus NBA player. Overall, Deni's per-40 minutes numbers last year were not significantly different from, & not better than, his numbers in '21-22. That's not a good thing.

Whatever else one can say about him -- acknowledgement of his good defense, for example -- Deni Avdija still needs to push those numbers up by a fair amount to become a valuable NBA player.

Now, he has the advantage over Rui that he came into the league fully 2 years younger than Rui did. For that reason, it's fair to say that he has a little more runway than Rui did after 3 years. But, that's as far as it goes: Deni still has to perform, because we have to make a decision about him -- & it can't be based on anything but his performance.

In other words, this year Deni Avdija has to play at a level he hasn't reached in his first 3 years -- he has to do what he has not yet done. That's always a long shot.

Looking at nate's 6 possible outcomes, I think any except the first of them could easily result in his being traded. Not predicting, but even #6 could result in a trade ala the deal we made to move Rui.

The end of the day - way to many variables in my opinion. Deni has a lot of unfulfilled potential - no doubt about it. Whether he taps it fully or not - no one knows, we can just sit back and watch (hopefully enjoy the ride).

To note: Rui according to some reports is expected to be in the starting lineup for the Lakers. A guy a lot of the people here were not pleased about is now a potential starter for a high caliber team. So whatever fans think is never a one to one ratio to what professionals do/decide.

[payitforward]

Rui had a run of good games in the playoffs. Good for him -- I hope he keeps it up.

OTOH, he wasn't a whole lot better as a Laker in the regular season than he had been as a Wizard -- a bit better, yes, but nothing much overall.

As to "what professionals do/decide," don't forget that it was professionals on both sides of that trade.

Like Deni, Rui was the 9th pick in the draft. To this point, neither of them has lived up to that billing.

[Hidden Eye]

All Deni has to do is improve Offense.

Jp and Kuz are going to be game planned main focus by teams shut off their offense etc and most likely are going to be usage 1 n 2 by end of season. That leaves Deni opportunity to be that X factor for the Wiz. Nothing is stopping him flourishing this season.

[Frichuela]

All Deni has to do is improve Offense.

Jp and Kuz are going to be game planned main focus by teams shut off their offense etc and most likely are going to be usage 1 n 2 by end of season. That leaves Deni opportunity to be that X factor for the Wiz. Nothing is stopping him flourishing this season.

Agreed. The way I see it, it's up to Deni to show up this season. He should have plenty of opportunities.

[Runner300]

Deni will flourish in a team that has an offensive and defensive structure.
I fear that this year Wizards won't have any structure or discipline, and Deni will get suffocated and lost in the stream.

[80sballboy]

Deni got his bag
https://x.com/wojespn/status/1716188803931459617?s=20

[FAH1223]

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[80sballboy]

That came out of nowhere. I guess Winger and Dawkins wanted him for the future. Hopefully, he relaxes now and continues to get better on offense.

[Benjammin]

Better than Rui for this team.

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[Frichuela]

Quite a reasonable contract, averaging $13 mn and change per season, pretty much non-tax MLE money.

Think about it, peers like Isiah Stewart got much more…