Bub Carrington

[AFM]

Take out the really poor stretch between Kristallnacht and the death camps, and Hitler was a middling artist with big dreams.

Are you okay? This is a borderline insane post. I’m actually going to put you on ignore.

Okay, okay — Jesus. Having a little (gallows) fun.

Won’t do it again. Promise. (No gallows fun!)

All good man I apologize

[NatP4]

I like the range of outcomes with Carrington. The numbers are very similar to Freshman year Maxey, Quickley, Alexander-Walker, and Dejounte Murray. Carrington was a full year younger though.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=carlton-carrington--tyrese-maxey--immanuel-quickley--nickeil-alexander-walker--dejounte-murray

It’s good process, was the highest upside pick on the board at #14. 18 years old+ 6’8 wingspan+real shooting potential.

[nate33]

Terrible is a strong word. He can finish with both hands. He has vertical leaping ability if he wants to. 6'4 195 isn't that skinny. And I expect him to put on more weight. Imo his finishing ability is mediocre. If a big is going to contest, he might not make it. But we've seen numerous players in the NBA who can only finish with one hand. That isn't Bub. It's hard not to watch the UNC game and think that he can play right now in the NBA imo.

Shooting sub 50% at the rim is pretty terrible. It's terrible relative to his incredible off-the-dribble midrange percentage anyhow.

I'm not hating. Clearly the kid has a very good shooting touch given his midrange ability. But he relied too much on the midrange as a crutch during his freshman year because it was so effective. He is going to have to broaden his repertoire in the NBA. I'm confident that he'll figure it out.

[Zonkerbl]

I watched the intro press conference and I like Bub already - he gave thoughtful answers and oozes positivity.

I mean, the large majority of NBA players are super smart, super smart in their area of expertise and pretty smart overall. The large majority of them study film and are thoughtful about their game. Every NBA player getting consistent minutes is an above average graduate student of basketball.

Still, the few outliers (on the Shaqtin' a fool side) have somehow managed to make their way to the Zards over the years so I'm reassured that Bub is not one of them.

[nate33]

Another aspect of Bub's game that needs to be talked about is his turnover percentage. For the season Bub averaged 1.9 to's a game. Imo, this is connected directly to his high level ball handling skills. Bub, at a young age, has a great feel for playing at his own pace, getting to his spot and rising up. I think the good midrange numbers he has, is more so a function of him having the ability to methodically get to his spot and take the shot he wants than him just being an elite shooter.

The set 3-point shot is a big question mark for him. Without the ability to knock down 3's consistently, it's going to be tough to get him on the court because we're not going to simply give him the ball and relentlessly let him PnR. So as much as I would like to see him play early, I expect the Wiz to take him slow and let him develop his off the ball game.

I was watching an interview and he said that during the season he would get into his head when shooting open 3's during the season and that he felt more comfortable shooting defended 3's since it's just read and react. He went on to say that since he's been in draft workouts, he feels a lot more comfortable shooting set 3's and that he feels comfortable at the 3-point line. I guess we'll see.

Good point about the turnovers. His assist numbers are pretty good too. I think he has more point guard instincts than a lot of the combo guards he is compared to (guys like Quickley and Dejounte Murray).

I'm not really worried about his 3-ball at all. The kid is money from 18-20 feet and has also shown the ability to hit some high degree of difficulty threes coming off the curl. I think he'll add that extra couple of feet of range as he gets older and stronger. He was still 18 on draft day.

[nate33]

I like the range of outcomes with Carrington. The numbers are very similar to Freshman year Maxey, Quickley, Alexander-Walker, and Dejounte Murray. Carrington was a full year younger though.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=carlton-carrington--tyrese-maxey--immanuel-quickley--nickeil-alexander-walker--dejounte-murray

It’s good process, was the highest upside pick on the board at #14. 18 years old+ 6’8 wingspan+real shooting potential.

Good list. He compares favorably to most of these guys.

He looks like a much better natural point guard than all of those guys with better assist numbers than everyone but Murray, and much fewer turnovers than Murray.

He is a better rebounder than everyone but Murray.

The scoring numbers are pretty similar with only Quickley standing above the rest in terms of volume and efficiency, though Quickley was 2 years older at the time.

The only real red flag with Carrington is the low FTA rate.

[DCZards]

Good to see the Bubwagon is picking up believers.

[NatP4]

The only real red flag with Carrington is the low FTA rate.

And the rim% being subpar, although Carrington was younger than all these guys.

Carrington: 53.8%
Quickley: 48% (as a 21 year old Sophomore)
Maxey: 65%
Murray: 60.2%
Alexander-Walker: 59.2%

[nate33]

The only real red flag with Carrington is the low FTA rate.

And the rim% being subpar, although Carrington was younger than all these guys.

Carrington: 53.8%
Quickley: 48% (as a 21 year old Sophomore)
Maxey: 65%
Murray: 60.2%
Alexander-Walker: 59.2%

Where do you find the at rim percentages?

[NatP4]

Where do you find the at rim percentages?

Bart Torvik

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2024

[payitforward]

Any explanation for Carrington posting a 49% EFG, 53% TS, 32% from 3, not drawing fouls, averaging a minuscule 1.3 rim attempts per 40 minutes, only 50% at the rim, ranking him 16th percentile in half court rim attempts, posting a 3.9 BPM(last among all drafted PGs besides Bronny James), only 15 points per 36, and a grand total of 19 steals and 8 blocks across 33 games 1100 minutes played?

he hit a wall middle of the season--had a 4-16 game followed by 0-10 game followed by 3-9 game and a 2-11 game

9-46 stretch....take that out and he and he is more like a 45% shooter

Take out the really poor stretch between Kristallnacht and the death camps, and Hitler was a middling artist with big dreams.

check you PMs, please.

[payitforward]

The youtube of Bub's conversation/video session with Sam Vecenie was extremely convincing.

You never know, of course, but still only 18, smart, articulate, funny, hard-working & obviously gifted... Love the kid!

I'm hopping on Zards' Bub-train.

[doclinkin]

Watch on YouTube

Smart kid. Really savvy for an 18 year old.

When I think about it I expect we will see immediate return on our investment even in comparison to what we lost.

If we put Bub's year by year stats against Deni's, I'd bet the kid will exceed the numbers that Avdija put up.

Who doesn't think the rookie Bub can put up better than Deni's first year stats of. 6pts/5r/1ast/.5stl. With .8 FT attempts per game. 31% from 3, 64% from the line.

By year 4 Deni's career average was 9.8pts/6r/2.5ast/.8stl/.4bk. 2.2 FTA. 32% from 3, 74% from the line.

If Bub can't beat that over his rookie deal I'll eat this post. Doubtless he'll average fewer boards, but significantly higher assists, higher volume of shooting. Recall even those of us who are angry that Deni was dealt had been frustrated with his passivity in taking shots his first few years. Seemed like he was afraid to take those shots in favor of always seeking out the exact right play to make. I don't get the sense that Bub will have that problem. Taking shots by instinct, knowing that putting pressure on the defense and betting on himself probably is the right play much of the time.

I'd even bet -- even though these areas are a weakness in his current stat value -- Bub's FT attempts and 3pt shooting % will generally exceed Deni's over the course of his rookie contract.

His 2nd contract will probably not be as good a value, as he will have earned a significant bump. And over the course of his career, who knows, I bet Deni becomes a champion as a key role-player on a good team. But still, if it plays out like this ^^^ then they made the right move no doubt. As far as a risk move in a rebuilding year.

Either way its hard to fault the front office for taking a chance on a player who is this young and this poised. Especially when you consider all the other assets the trade picked up. In retrospect I'm glad we have a FO group who does not make decisions primarily based on how much a player is loved, instead of what move nudges us towards a championship. That has actually been a problem in recent years.

[NatP4]

That last 5 game stretch was impressive. Wonder how many 18 year old freshman have posted 19 points 4 assists/2 turnovers 5 rebounds on 56% from 2, 45% from 3 for any stretch of games, but specifically, at the end of conference play/conference tournament in the ACC against quality competition.

ACC sent 4 teams to the sweet 16. 3 teams to the elite 8. Carrington had great games down the stretch against them:

Clemson: 18-7-3-2 on 12 shots
UNC: 24-5-3 on 17 shots
NC State: 23-6-5 on 15 shots

[NatP4]

This is the Carrington you take a swing on at #14:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[AFM]

Dude just moves like a swaggy ass baller, I can't explain it in any other terms

[NatP4]

Lillard is another interesting comparison. Perimeter oriented guard with difficulty getting to the rim and finishing early on. Can’t find his freshman year rim%, but as a sophomore it was 54.4%. Not good. Same 6’8 wingspan. Freshman per40 numbers:

Lillard:

15.6 points 5.3 rebounds 3.9 assists 1.4 steals 0.3 blocks 3.1 turnovers 57% TS 52% EFG 49% on 2s

Carrington:

16.6 points 6.2 rebounds 5.0 assists 0.7 steals 0.3 blocks 2.3 turnovers 53% TS 49.6% EFG 51% on 2s

[doclinkin]

More Bub with smart answers and chill demeanor:

Watch on YouTube

[DCZards]

More Bub with smart answers and chill demeanor:

Watch on YouTube

Saw this about a week ago. Love when he said he pulled up for (and sank) a deep 3 because he felt disrespected when the defender dropped below the 3pt line instead of coming out to guard him.

DC is going to love this kid’s combo of swag, smarts, and youthful candor. You could tell from the Zards intro press conference that he’s a natural leader.

Bub will be the face of the franchise in 2-3 yrs.

[closg00]

More Bub with smart answers and chill demeanor:

Watch on YouTube

Saw this about a week ago. Love when he said he pulled up for (and sank) a deep 3 because he felt disrespected when the defender dropped below the 3pt line instead of coming out to guard him.

DC is going to love this kid’s combo of swag, smarts, and youthful candor. You could tell from the Zards intro press conference that he’s a natural leader.

Bub will be the face of the franchise in 2-3 yrs.

Fire and swag early, I like it, don’t see it in George