Jan Vesely

[hands11]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/veselja01/gamelog/2012/

Maybe I am reading this wrong (the advanced game log that is), but it seems to me that Vesely is quietly becoming a rather effective player. His Ortg has been substanially better than his Drtg for the last 6-8 games, and for the last 20 games, it has been consisently better. Plus, his last 20 games has clearly been much better than his first 20 games.

Sounds like something I was arguing with DAT about the other day.

Ves is starting to fill some of the void McGee has left. He is getting some of those alley opps. And he has been getting better at rebounding. Yet he still has a ways to go. But remembering what McGee looked like the first year or so on the court, Ves is way ahead in regards to BB IQ and leverage on defense. It is his complete lack of offense short of a put backs and breakaways that makes him look bad. But that will come in time. The kid is smart enough to not force things right know because he knows he has time and he know he has other things to work on. Nothing wrong with his approach. He is trying to make a difference by doing other things other then shooting.

Give him an offseason to work on his shot. Look at how much better Booker looks shooting. What would it prove if Ves was taking those shots now ? Nothing. It would prove he isnt a good shooter. Well he already knows what. He should get credit for knowing that, not bashed. Not that he shouldn't shoot some. Shooting a few live bullets could get him more comfortable. After all, his form doesn't look terrible. I expect he is practicing his shot and when it become reliable in practice, then he will start trying it out in games. Not before.

[Rafael122]

He's looked horrible but I want to see what this kid does with an actual offseason, strength and training, a training camp, preseason, etc. There has to be a reason he was picked that high, obviously the Wizards and other teams see something in him.

[Ruzious]

One thing he's got to learn to stop doing is trying to play volleyball with rebounds and tipping the ball to nobody - If you're going to do that, at least aim it for where a teammate is - I think you actually get credit for a rebound if you tip it directly to a teammate. But the best thing to do is to just go after the ball and grab it. Be a man out there; not a European.

+1 Ruz

that and if you get the ball somewhere near the basketball, just go ahead
and try to dunk it, assuming it's our offensive basket anyway.

No caveats like that needed anymore for the Wiz.

[closg00]

Perhaps as importantly I think that, for a high pick, people within and without the organization seem comfortable with the perception that Vesely may be useful in future but isn't a foundational piece, and so I don't expect his presence to warp the team's future plans.

I had completely written Vesely off. So anything he does here going forward is an added bonus.

As to him being a high pick, I think everyone would like to get more value out of such a high pick, but I think the sad truth is the draft was so weak, you can only find a few players who were drafted after Vesely who have been significantly more productive than Vesely, and the best player available was still available when the Wizards selected Singleton.

First, I don't agree that the 2011 draft was a weak one, plenty of value was to be found later in the draft and many of the picks have not had an opportunity to play, or they are playing overseas.

I believe the data would show the exact opposite of what you wrote. Jan Vesely is one of the least productive players selected when compared to other players selected in that draft. Are you comparing him against other PF's or just anyone in that draft? Which area of productivity, scoring? rebounding?

Either the other players selected are more productive than Jan or they aren't playing yet. Take a look.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Sc ... ll%20Teams

[leswizards]

Which area of productivity, scoring? rebounding?

In my mind, when I wrote productivity, I was thinking of advanced statistics like WinShare, and the simple rating available on 82games.com. I don't think you will find too many rookies that have a very impressive set numbers for the advanced statistics.

And, I was comparing him against all players excluding PG's, because I didn't think there were any circumstances under which the Wizards would have taken a PG. Still, I think the point holds even if you include PGs. For example, Brandon Knight who you have as being one of the more productive players based upon his scoring, has a simple rating of -6.7, and a WS/48 of .16. I don't find that to be significantly better than Vesely's advanced statistical numbers.

[dobrojim]

No caveats like that needed anymore for the Wiz.

something that at least some of us are most grateful for

[Nivek]

Among rookies with at least 250 minutes this season, Vesely ranks 25th in Win Shares per 48 minutes -- 1 spot ahead of Chris Singleton (18th) pick and 2 spots ahead of Shelvin Mack. Value from Mack. woo hoo.

[Ruzious]

I'm hoping there are more than 27 rookies with over 250 minutes.

[Severn Hoos]

Among rookies with at least 250 minutes this season, Vesely ranks 25th in Win Shares per 48 minutes -- 1 spot ahead of Chris Singleton (18th) pick and 2 spots ahead of Shelvin Mack. Value from Mack. woo hoo.

What Kev isn't telling you is that the list of Rookies on that list that are behind Vesely (and Singleton and Mack) includes:

MarShon Brooks
Jimmer Fredette
Bismack Biyombo
Charles Jenkins
Norris Cole
Kemba Walker


Just sayin'....

[closg00]

After missing the start of the season with a right hip injury, Vesely, the sixth overall pick who hails from the Czech Republic, is averaging 3.3 points and 3.4 rebounds. He was a player the Wizards had coveted for nearly two years, with his high motor, agility and high-flying acrobatics. Several scouts and executives had doubts about the 6-foot-11 Vesely’s actual position and one NBA general manager acknowledged concern over his ability to score in the league.

Saunders hired a shooting coach to work with Vesely on the second day of training camp, and Vesely has still gotten most of his offense through dunks. He has made 56 of 84 shots (67 percent) inside the restricted area, but is just 2-26 (eight percent) from everywhere else. Vesely made his first shot from beyond nine feet last Thursday in Indiana.

Good read on the struggles of all-three of our draft picks. Since Ves was taken the highest, I'm dropping the article here....it could also go in the Mack and Singleton threads.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

It is probably Ernie himself who "acknowledged concern over his ability to score in the league" since only one GM is referenced.

[fishercob]

Among rookies with at least 250 minutes this season, Vesely ranks 25th in Win Shares per 48 minutes -- 1 spot ahead of Chris Singleton (18th) pick and 2 spots ahead of Shelvin Mack. Value from Mack. woo hoo.

I thought you hated win shares as a meaningful metric?

[fishercob]

After missing the start of the season with a right hip injury, Vesely, the sixth overall pick who hails from the Czech Republic, is averaging 3.3 points and 3.4 rebounds. He was a player the Wizards had coveted for nearly two years, with his high motor, agility and high-flying acrobatics. Several scouts and executives had doubts about the 6-foot-11 Vesely’s actual position and one NBA general manager acknowledged concern over his ability to score in the league.

Saunders hired a shooting coach to work with Vesely on the second day of training camp, and Vesely has still gotten most of his offense through dunks. He has made 56 of 84 shots (67 percent) inside the restricted area, but is just 2-26 (eight percent) from everywhere else. Vesely made his first shot from beyond nine feet last Thursday in Indiana.

Good read on the struggles of all-three of our draft picks. Since Ves was taken the highest, I'm dropping the article here....it could also go in the Mack and Singleton threads.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

It is probably Ernie himself who "acknowledged concern over his ability to score in the league" since only one GM is referenced.

99% of us want Ernie replaced. That said, I think it's only fair to reserve judgement on all of our rookies until they've had a full offseason and subsequent year under their belts. Like many here, I had completely written off Seraphin as a viable prospect until as recently as a month or so ago, as he was racking up DNP's on a horrible team. But he has really come into his own of late, and there seems like plenty of reaosn to believe his game will continue to grow.

Point being, give these kids all time. Vesely's rebounding has improved greatly. It's nothing special yet, but it's passable. Give him 20-30 more pounds and two more years in the NBA game, and who knows how impactful he might be. He already seems to know the right play to make most of the time (which is rare). HIs body and skill set just need to catch up to his brain.

[Ruzious]

99% of us want Ernie replaced. That said, I think it's only fair to reserve judgement on all of our rookies until they've had a full offseason and subsequent year under their belts. Like many here, I had completely written off Seraphin as a viable prospect until as recently as a month or so ago, as he was racking up DNP's on a horrible team. But he has really come into his own of late, and there seems like plenty of reaosn to believe his game will continue to grow.

Point being, give these kids all time. Vesely's rebounding has improved greatly. It's nothing special yet, but it's passable. Give him 20-30 more pounds and two more years in the NBA game, and who knows how impactful he might be. He already seems to know the right play to make most of the time (which is rare). HIs body and skill set just need to catch up to his brain.

+1 on all points. If intangibles and physical ability were all that mattered, Vesely's going to end up being a pretty good player. His skills and body should improve over the next 2 years. I'm much higher on him than when he was drafted.

[mhd]

Vessley is tradeable. Seraphin, Booker, and Nene all are ahead of him in the pecking order, and say we draft Robinson/Davis/Drummond, then there simply won't be any PT. I'd see if there was a market for him for a youngish wing.

[Knighthonor]

Kind of feel sorry for the dude now after reading that

[hands11]

Among rookies with at least 250 minutes this season, Vesely ranks 25th in Win Shares per 48 minutes -- 1 spot ahead of Chris Singleton (18th) pick and 2 spots ahead of Shelvin Mack. Value from Mack. woo hoo.

I thought you hated win shares as a meaningful metric?

It make little sense to use it for a team that is not winning.

Seems reasonable to use it when comparing teams with similar records though.

[hands11]

Vessley is tradeable. Seraphin, Booker, and Nene all are ahead of him in the pecking order, and say we draft Robinson/Davis/Drummond, then there simply won't be any PT. I'd see if there was a market for him for a youngish wing.

Hell no. I like the Janchese.

Besides, the team needs a few white dudes on the team.


Ves going to be just fine.

I wasn't a fan of Ves at 6th either. I wanted a trade down. But I am seeing more clearly as things pan out what EG did. He drafted a McGee replacement, not a SF project. And Ves is way ahead of schedule in that regards and he has the all important elements of a kid that is going to be good player in the NBA. He just needs to summer to work on his body and his shot and things will take off for him. Its looking more and more like a solid pick for the long term plan which involved moving McGee. McGee was going to get better on the court in some ways but it wasn't probable that he magically got smarter. That takes years and a lot of luck if it every happens. See Nick and Dray.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1168914&start=1065

And to that he is getting stronger. He showed up to camp stronger then I thought he would be and now he look even stronger still. Most of us though the kid would be a bean poll. And he has the all important lower body strength. Something McGee may never have because McGee has no butt. You can see when Ves is running that he has lower body strength and a lower center of gravity.

[Knighthonor]

If they wanted white dudes on the team, they should have kept that white dude from last season. He played better last year, than most of the wizards this year.

[sfam]

I still say its going to be impossible to judge Vesely's upside until he has a full offseason and training camp under his belt. If he comes back 10-15 pounds bigger and has at least a semi-serviceable midrange shot, he'll be going in the right direction - one in which we can expect to see continued improvement. If, on the other hand there is no improvement, than I would agree Vesely will be considered a bust, even though he has a good BBIQ. I'm still thinking he'll dedicate himself to improve though.

[nate33]

I'll say this. Vesely has significantly improved over the last 15 games or so. He has definitely added bulk and he's doing a better job of rebounding, avoiding fouls, and getting open on offense. By about mid February, I was about to completely give up hope on him, but I'm much more optimistic now. I'm particularly impressed with the way he has added muscle during the grind of a basketball season. It leads me to believe he can pack on much more weight in the offseason. If he can start holding his own strengthwise against NBA centers, that changes everything.