2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[7-Day Dray]

Jared Sullinger red flagged with back issues.

I've been saying this since he's freshman year—the kid will have chronic back and knee issues for his entire career. His left leg is shorter than his right leg, and he has to wear corrective shoes to balance himself.

I would stay far, far away from Sullinger unless he fell to the second round.

He will go to the Spurs and be on the 1st rookie team next year

Except the Spurs don't have a 1st round pick this year.

[DCZards]

Btw, you know how many SFs had fewer turnovers per minute than Kawhi Leonard last season? 3 -- that's all. How lucky can you get to be playing with guys who stop you from turning the ball over, huh?

So let me guess, SF's with more turnovers per minute than Leonard include Durant, LeBron and Carmelo. Duh. Of course they had more turnovers. Because they are focal points of their teams' offense and handled the ball a great deal whereas Leonard was basically a catch-and-shoot SF for the Spurs. It's not rocket science as to why Leonard had fewer turnovers.

[payitforward]

I read that Damian Lillard had an off-the-charts workout w/ Portland.

So much for trading 3 for 6 and 11.

The latest DR mock has Jenkins dropping to us; we pick him at 32 -- over both Will Barton and Doron Lamb. Anybody *really* like Jenkins?

It's interesting to compare Jenkins and Lamb -- their numbers are almost identical, with the sole difference that Jenkins shot 10.4 3-pointers (!) every 40 minutes, and Lamb 1/2 as many -- 5.2. Neither of them rebounds at all, and neither posts any assists to speak of. Neither turns it over or steals it much, or fouls much. Both had outstanding TS% -- and essentially that's it.

But Barton is an altogether different kind of player -- he wasn't nearly the efficient scorer that either of the other guys was; but still he wasn't bad. And he is a very good rebounder. Helps himself w/ assists as well.

Plus, he approved significantly in virtually everything from freshman to sophomore year. He'd be a hard guy to pass up. If we were able to get him and Crowder, and then pick up Denmon undrafted, I'd feel like we probably snagged 3 guys who could have solid, ten-year NBA careers.

[payitforward]

Btw, you know how many SFs had fewer turnovers per minute than Kawhi Leonard last season? 3 -- that's all. How lucky can you get to be playing with guys who stop you from turning the ball over, huh?

So let me guess, SF's with more turnovers per minute than Leonard include Durant, LeBron and Carmelo. Duh. Of course they had more turnovers. Because they are focal points of their teams' offense and handled the ball a great deal whereas Leonard was basically a catch-and-shoot SF for the Spurs. It's not rocket science as to why Leonard had fewer turnovers.

Durant and LeBron also did a zillion things that Leonard didn't do. They are superstar players. I'm not comparing Kawhi Leonard to Durant and LeBron.

But, if you get to say Leonard isn't much, because he hasn't done what they've done, then I guess you better make the same kind of comparison for Vesely. Please go ahead; I'll wait over here on the other side of the screen to see what you come up with.

[closg00]

More fodder for our draft debate.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... ef=writers

[hands11]

If you have any sense at all, you don't bring him back period - under any circumstances. He's had 7 years in the NBA. Just keeping him around the team would be an obvious step backwards to any momentum this organization has built. It's amazing to the point of absurdity to me that people think it makes sense to give him another chance.

What he said!

Look, I get that it is fun for some people type this kind of stuff but come on.

It does make some sense to bring him back. It makes Ted money sense. That was my point. I think it is what he will do if he can't trade him before the season starts. I never said it was ideal. I just don't believe it is near a forgone concussion that Dray will get amnestied or traded before the season and if neither of those two things happens, guess what.... he will be on the roster.

So if you are one of the people who will lose their mind with outrage if that happens, I suggest you start doubling up on your meds around October.

[nate33]

But Barton is an altogether different kind of player -- he wasn't nearly the efficient scorer that either of the other guys was; but still he wasn't bad. And he is a very good rebounder. Helps himself w/ assists as well.

Plus, he approved significantly in virtually everything from freshman to sophomore year. He'd be a hard guy to pass up. If we were able to get him and Crowder, and then pick up Denmon undrafted, I'd feel like we probably snagged 3 guys who could have solid, ten-year NBA careers.

Will Bartin had embarrassingly bad athleticism scores. His lane agility was slower than everybody in this draft class except Sullinger (and he only barely beat Sullinger). His full court sprint was slower than every projected guard or small forward in the draft. His max vertical was also lower than every other guard or small forward.

[nate33]

Hollinger has his annual draft rater up and it apparently reads my mind because I've been locked on MKG for a while and have fallen in love with Waiters' game. I've also thought Quincy Miller is a huge sleeper as well.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... raft-rater

3. High-rated wings usually deliver

As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard.

This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.)

I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed.

The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick.

Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery.

Good stuff Dat2U. This may make me reconsider. I put a lot of credence into Hollinger's analysis.

I think one reason that Beal ranks low with Hollinger is because of his lackluster 3-point percentage. If you pay no attention to the hype and look solely at the numbers, it's not surprising that Beal doesn't surpass the other guards in his draft class. I think most other mock drafts are discounting his mediocre 3-point percentage as an aberration because of his track record in high school and in international ball. Whether that's wise or not remains to be seen.

[hands11]

The Vesely pick was indeed leaked. But nobody saw the McGee pick coming. Or the Booker pick. Or the Seraphin pick. Or the Pecherov pick. Or the Young pick. Or the Mike Miller trade.

The McGee pick definitely rumored or at least he was linked to the Wizards in several mocks.

The Booker pick wasn't surprising considering we had brought him in for a workout right before the draft and had a couple of picks in his draft range.

The Nick Young pick wasn't rumored as he was expected to be drafted by New Orleans in that draft, but it was widely expected we'd take the best wing available when our pick came around.

I can't recall the lead-up to the Pech pick or the Miller trade....

The McGee picked surprised everyone on this board when it happened. I remember that distinctly. Nobody had McGee on their radar.

You are kidding right ? I started posting about him repeatedly once I saw that predraft workout camp article and video about him in that summer camp lead by that NFL player. I posted plenty about McGee. I had us taking him or Hibbert. Hibby was gone, and we took McGee.

Edit. I just read the Fish post a few pages back. Damn Fish. Good memory. Hell, I even forgot I had that sig until I read your post. Man, you must drive you wife crazy with a memory like that. lol.

[davidgrant]

Hollinger has a high opinion on Waiters, but his freshman numbers look poor compared to Beal.

Waiters: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... on-waiters

Beal: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... /brad-beal


I'm still hoping for Beal and Royce White. However, I would be fine with MKG and Doron Lamb/Barton.

[hands11]

There really isn't much we can do at the 3-spot, leaking is totally worthless. My guess is that the Wizards are hoping that the Cats do not take Barnes.

My jaw will drop to the floor if we take MKG...unless Singleton is moved for peanuts on draft-night. It's going to be a long-night on the 28th, glad I'm not working the next-day.

You really think they want Barnes ?

I don't see it.

[nate33]

The McGee picked surprised everyone on this board when it happened. I remember that distinctly. Nobody had McGee on their radar.

You are kidding right ? I started posting about him repeatedly once I saw that predraft workout camp article and video about him in that summer camp lead by that NFL player. I posted plenty about McGee. I had us taking him or Hibbert. Hibby was gone, and we took McGee.

Here's the draft thread right when McGee was selected. The response was universally negative (and surprised):
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=814316&hilit=hibbert&start=645

I went back about 20 pages before our selection and never saw McGee mentioned even once. If you could point me to your post where you predicted we would draft McGee, maybe I'll revise my statement.

[nate33]

Hollinger has a high opinion on Waiters, but his freshman numbers look poor compared to Beal.

Waiters: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... on-waiters

Beal: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... /brad-beal


I'm still hoping for Beal and Royce White. However, I would be fine with MKG and Doron Lamb/Barton.

I have a hard time grading Waiters that high when he wasn't even a starter as a sophomore. I think his numbers may have been a bit inflated because he played fresh against tired starters or backups and he had the luxury of sitting when he wasn't having a good game. He's also pretty small. For those people have an issue with Beal's 8-4 standing reach and 6-8 wingspan, note that Waiters' reach is just 8-2 and his wingspan is 6-7.25. (Waiters didn't participate in the athleticism measurements.)

[hands11]

Hollinger and his advanced stats are interesting but it's just one small piece of the puzzle. For example I believe he had Tristan Thompson rated near the top of his board last year but Thompson turned out to be a very raw rookie in the NBA this season.

As far as Beal is concerned Hollinger didn't touch on the fact he was playing in a tough situation with ball hogging guards at Florida. He doesn't add in the fact Beal was greatly improved by the time the tournament rolled around in March.

At least he sees Royce ranked high. But I think he is way off on Beal. No way he is in the third group. He will be proved wrong there. I would take Beal over Dion.

[DCZards]

I think one reason that Beal ranks low with Hollinger is because of his lackluster 3-point percentage. If you pay no attention to the hype and look solely at the numbers, it's not surprising that Beal doesn't surpass the other guards in his draft class. I think most other mock drafts are discounting his mediocre 3-point percentage as an aberration because of his track record in high school and in international ball. Whether that's wise or not remains to be seen.

I certainly hope that Hollinger is not grading Beal low simply because of his 3 pt percentage. If so, he's ignoring a ton of evidence that says that those numbers are almost certainly an aberration. Then again Hollinger has Terrell Stoglin rated ahead of guys like Moe Harkless, Jae Crowder and John Jenkins. So maybe it's Hollinger's rankings (and not Beal's shooting) that's suspect.

[jivelikenice]

Can't we just let Kawhi Leonard be outstanding because that's what he is? Overall, he's already one of the top 1/2 dozen 3s in the league.

But Kawhi Leonard being good in no way prevents Jan Vesely from being good.

Top half down 3s in the league? That's a big stretch. Here's 10 who are better than him off the top of my head. Nothing against Kawhi, who I wanted to draft, but people acting like we're Portland and we missed Durant is ridiculous.

Batum
Gallinari
Loul Deng
Andre Igoudola
Paul Pierce
Rudy Gay
Danny Granger
Carmelo
Kevin Durant
Lebron

[jivelikenice]

More fodder for our draft debate.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... ef=writers

I love the comments on MKG....The KG of Small Forwards

I think this article only affirms that we can't go wrong with any of these guys. I just find it crazy that the anti- MKG crowd is acting like the world will end if we get him.

[hands11]

payitforward

The team, system and coach you play for can obviously makes a difference. Specially your first year. Why are you even trying to debate this.

[hands11]

More fodder for our draft debate.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... ef=writers

I always said I thought CHA would take Robinson. It just makes to much sense for them. He give them the rebounds, power, and he will hit from outside respectfully. And he has some star power to market.

I still say Beal is the real deal.

Among the 16 responses, the results were mixed: Robinson and Beal tied for the lead with six votes apiece, while Kidd-Gilchrist came in third with four votes.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... z1yCo61iw4

averaged 14.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.4 steals and played some of his best ball in the NCAA tournament

He's athletic, is a good shooter, and can make plays off the dribble. Solid defender. Long arms will allow him to play 'bigger' than his height. High character and intelligence round him out as a prospect."

• "Character, translatable skills, production."

• "Shoots it deep, can handle and create for himself and others. Decent, not great size [6-3¼ without shoes]. Really good athlete. Great rebounder for his position. Seems to be a great kid."

• "He has star potential. Really good all-around player already. Solid shooter, above-average rebounder for his position. Can attack the rim off the dribble. Great kid off the court as well. Well grounded. Nothing that you can really dislike about the kid or the player."

• "My instincts tell me Brad Beal. But depending on what my team is, I would go with Kidd-Gilchrist. And if I was looking for energy, power and the attraction of athletic ability, I'd take Thomas Robinson. But my gut feeling is Beal. He's the whole package. Shooting, can make plays for other people. He's strong and will be able to defend in the NBA. His size came out well [at the combine], and then he's just an unbelievable kid and person."

[montestewart]

payitforward

The team, system and coach you play for can obviously make a difference. Specially your first year. Why are you even trying to debate this.

Yes, how could you? Without the slightest hint of irony or sarcasm. Damn your Vulcan logic!