Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Ruzious]

Since concluding his freshman season with 20 points and seven rebounds in a breathtaking 102-90 loss to eventual NCAA champion Kentucky, Zeller has “attacked”—Crean’s word—his training regimen for the 2012-13 season. Zeller’s weight is up to 240 pounds, his vertical jump to 39 inches and he recently managed 20 reps of 185 pounds on the bench press—more than his older brother, Tyler, managed at the NBA Scouting Combine.

Those are extremely impressive numbers for a 7-footer (or 6-11, as the case may be). So impressive that I don't believe them. Nobody 6-11 or higher has ever benched 20 reps in the DX Database and only 21 guys of any height have benched 20 reps. Those numbers say that Zeller is just as strong as Horford, Blake Griffin, Jae Crowder and Carl Landry.

He's also one of the greatest leaping big men in history. Only 1 player in the DX database 6-11 or taller has a vertical leap 39" or greater (Miles Plumlee).

Nobody in the history of the NBA combine has ever possessed Zeller's combination of strength and leaping ability, at any height. No one is really even close. And then throw in his 6-11 height and Zeller may well be the most gifted athlete in the history of the NBA.

Well, DeCoursy's been ESPN's lead college basketball writer for as long as I can remember. And as I recall, YODA had him as 1st pick worthy in most drafts based on his freshman numbers - which included .67 TS% and 31.2 PER. It takes more than a little bit o talent to do that. Saying that he might be a better athlete than Miles Plumlee doesn't exactly sound outrageous. Keep in mind players now train for these specific combine tests well in advance. I doubt that's been the case until the last couple of years. If people really want to belive that reps on a bench press is THE test of strength, that's their perogative. It makes me - at 50 years old, out of shape, and 170 lbs - stronger than almost any NBA prospect that's ever been.

[hands11]

Since concluding his freshman season with 20 points and seven rebounds in a breathtaking 102-90 loss to eventual NCAA champion Kentucky, Zeller has “attacked”—Crean’s word—his training regimen for the 2012-13 season. Zeller’s weight is up to 240 pounds, his vertical jump to 39 inches and he recently managed 20 reps of 185 pounds on the bench press—more than his older brother, Tyler, managed at the NBA Scouting Combine.

Those are extremely impressive numbers for a 7-footer (or 6-11, as the case may be). So impressive that I don't believe them. Nobody 6-11 or higher has ever benched 20 reps in the DX Database and only 21 guys of any height have benched 20 reps. Those numbers say that Zeller is just as strong as Horford, Blake Griffin, Jae Crowder and Carl Landry.

He's also one of the greatest leaping big men in history. Only 1 player in the DX database 6-11 or taller has a vertical leap 39" or greater (Miles Plumlee).

Nobody in the history of the NBA combine has ever possessed Zeller's combination of strength and leaping ability, at any height. No one is really even close. And then throw in his 6-11 height and Zeller may well be the most gifted athlete in the history of the NBA.

wow. Zeller is Blake Griffin as an athlete ? Dude does a great job of hiding it on the court.

[TGW]

wow. Zeller is Blake Griffin as an athlete ? Dude does a great job of hiding it on the court.

Good one hands. I pretty much agree...not seeing the explosive leaping ability nor strength. I do see a taller Tyler Hansborough, though.

If we're picking at #10 or below, and he's there, I would take him because he's pretty much a sure thing to make an NBA rotation. But we definitely would not be getting some world beater. Maybe Nick Collison/Tyler Hansborough if he pans out.

[jmrosenth]

Zeller seemed to be pressing yesterday. It wasn't his best game, obvs, but he still hut some clutch free throws and hit 'Dipo for the game-winning assist. Despite the concerns about his game, he's not going to be a realistic option for the Wizards where they are picking. We would be extremely lucky if he falls to us.

[TGW]

Right now, if Porter/Noel/Dipo are out of the question, my next group is Bennett, Gobert, McDermott, Zeller, Burke, and maybe Mcadoo. Everyone else can pretty much kick rocks.

[nate33]

I just noticed that Withey shoots 71% from the FT line and shot 80% from the line last year. He doesn't get to the line all that much, so he's unlikely to have developed a rhythm in any particular game, making the percentages that much more impressive.

With those percentages, there's a solid possibility that he can develop a reliable midrange shot. He'll never be a scorer, but if he can force opponents to guard him at 17 feet, he'll be much more valuable on offense.

[Deivy202]

We need to lose these last gms! We where just top 5 potential in the draft n looks like we will be #9 ????????? come on man.

[Deivy202]

We need to lose these last gms! We where just top 5 potential in the draft n looks like we will be #9 ????????? come on man.

[DCZards]

Right now, if Porter/Noel/Dipo are out of the question, my next group is Bennett, Gobert, McDermott, Zeller, Burke, and maybe Mcadoo. Everyone else can pretty much kick rocks.

I'm not a big fan of taking Dipo with a top ten pick, especially for the Zards I'm not sure what position he plays at the next level...and if it's SG, as I suspect, the Zards already have Beal. Despite his recent struggles, I expect McLemore to be a better NBA player than Dipo.

The more I see of McDermott the more I like him. He's bigger than I thought. I noticed that Len was not on your "next group" list. I'd have to give him serious consideration along with the other games you name.

I also like Withey. He may not be lottery pick material, but he'll go in the first round and some team will get an excellent shotblocker and rebounder who gives max effort.

[Ruzious]

I just noticed that Withey shoots 71% from the FT line and shot 80% from the line last year. He doesn't get to the line all that much, so he's unlikely to have developed a rhythm in any particular game, making the percentages that much more impressive.

With those percentages, there's a solid possibility that he can develop a reliable midrange shot. He'll never be a scorer, but if he can force opponents to guard him at 17 feet, he'll be much more valuable on offense.

Withey continues to surprise me with his fluidity on offense. I want to see what he does against top bigs. I don't think he's faced many this season. Baylor's Cory Jefferson (who's much better than Isaiah Austin) destroyed him statistically in a fairly recent game, but that's just 1 game. I think I underrated him because of his age, he's never scored much, and he was over-shadowed by Thomas Robinson last season. But over the last 10 games, he's made 56 of 83 FGA's (67%), and he showed he can hit the boards when focused on it (16 v UNC in a very impressive performance - despite a bunch of to's - because he was doubled and hacked in the face). And you know he can hang his hat on defense. If you have 1 great skill, you can work around deficiencies and at least be a roll player while working on developing other skills. I like Withey... and Cory Jefferson (Baylor's still alive in the NIT).

[popper]

Whatever happens regarding our draft position we need to make sure we get a low risk starting caliber player with our first choice. Assuming we draft 8-11 and most of the consensus guys are gone then my preferences would be:


CJ McCollum - low risk starting caliber (would play behind Wall and Beal)
Dieng - low risk starting caliber (would play behind Okafor for a season)
Shabazz if he drops - low risk starting caliber (would play behind Ariza and Beal)
Oladipo if he drops - I think he's more of a backup rotation player - not starting caliber

Len - med. risk starting caliber after developmental year
Olynyk - med. risk - not sure about his defense and rebounding but perhaps more of a backup rotation player

Gobert - high risk starting caliber after developmental year

If EG doesn't F up we should get a solid rotation player with our high second pick

[gambitx777]

I think you guys are all over looking Olynyk. I think we should take him over both len and zeller.
63% from the field, 7REB, 1 block and 18PPG He is being more underrated than Vucevic was bac in 2011 and Olynyk is, IMO, better than Vucevic was. I think he has the skills to come in and start! I feel he is more of a PF than a center but we need bigs for the future and i would hate to pass up on some one who could be compared to Dirk some day.
But would any one consider using our second 2ed round pick on Sherwood Brown from FGCU?
From the stats, he is an ok shooter, not bad from 3 range, great rebounder for his position and a good defender.
Thing is he is turnover prone and is kind of bad from the FT line.
Thoughts?

[Dat2U]

Man this thread moves fast. I wake up this morning and this exchange is already buried, but I think it's worth sussing out because you make some some valid points but I don't agree with your conclusions.

First off, how can you really tell he struggles to create his own shot? When has he had the opportunity to do so? Self runs a very structured offense with for all intents and purposes, no ISO sets for McLemore (or virtually any of the players). The team never just passes him the ball and says, "now go score." They run sets every trip down in the half court where McLemore spends the whole time running off screens or spotting up on the wings or plays a decoy role.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh0BS5O1U7I[/youtube]

How is McLemore's scoring in this game much different than the way this guy scores in this game:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA6EFWaXkHQ[/youtube]

It's a bunch of jumpers off spot ups, dribble pull ups, curls off screens, cuts, and straight line drives. Ray Allen never breaks anyone down with his handle in an ISO set. He doesn't really attack multiple defenders off the bounce. Almost all of his looks come from working off the ball or from ball screens and straight line drives.

Second, Bill Self calling him the most talented kid he's ever coached goes way above and beyond normal coach speak. If anything, coaches rarely make absolute statements like that. You poopoo Chuck too, but Chuck is damn good. He does his homework and knows the game as well as anyone who has ever played it and he actually has a solid track record spotting NCAA talent and translating it to the NBA. He understands how both the college and pro game work and the overlaps and divergences between them.

So why isn't McLemore more consistently dominant? Could it simply be that he's a freshman who was a late bloomer playing for a big time, senior-laden team and he doesn't have the confidence or experience to do it? It's a boring answer, but I think it's the simplest explanation and the most accurate. I don't think major deficiencies in his skill set are holding him back. He's dropped way too many 20 and 30 point games this year to justify that. And I don't get the sense from watching him he's a mature player or has a well developed bball IQ. If anything, he looks young to me and is still very much developing his feel for the game.

I think were looking at different videos. Ray Allen in his video does more off the bounce in the first two plays than McLemore did in his entire video. First play Ray brings the ball up the court (McLemore never dribbled more than twice before passing or shooting) then useless a little behind the back move the create separation and make the jumper. I've never seen McLemore do anything of this nature. Second play, Ray attacks off the bounce and finishes with contact at the rim. McLemore struggles to finish at the rim with contact and often ends up throwing up some awkward mess.

Ray Allen is a much better ball-handler than you and many others are giving him credit for. McLemore can't hold Ray Allen's jock strap.

[likwitdesi]

We have to take a look at Khalif Wyatt in the late 1st / early 2nd. I live in Philly so I've been following Temple. Ihave questioned his draft stock because he is probably a below average athlete but what a feel for the game...

He's certainly playing out of his mind in the Temple/Indiana matchup. It's tough to make a judgement off of any single game, but I really like what I see so far. And it's just that he's got 30 points. He's also made a ton of nice passes to set up his teammates (who have generally blown it every time). He might make a nice instant offense 3rd guard.

His numbers aren't great though. He's a low percentage shooter despite being a senior. He looked better as a junior.

I've seen him play a few times, once live when Temple played VCU. This guy has to be one of the best in college basketball at getting to the line, which is what I like about him. Offensively, he has consistently played like a bull, constantly taking the ball to the rack.

His numbers were better last season because he had a good bit of senior help on that team. This season he had to step up and be the man. With the double and triple teams, his numbers fell a bit.

His D is subpar and it was actually kind of his fault that Oladipo was left open on that last 3.

Regardless, he is absolutely worth a look in the 2nd round. He could potentially fit in as instant offense off the bench, which we only get right now through Ariza.

[DCZards]

When comparing the videos of Ray Allen and McLemore keep in mind that Ray was a 26 year old with three years of college ball and almost 6 years of pro ball under his belt. McLemore is a 20 year college frosh.

McLemore is a talented college player with lots of room for growth--both in the mental and physical aspects of the game. I think McLemore has the potential to be an outstanding NBA player, maybe even an all-star. Will he get there? Not sure. But I’d take a chance on him.

[Dat2U]

When comparing the videos of Ray Allen and McLemore keep in mind that Ray was a 26 year old with three years of college ball and almost 6 years of pro ball under his belt. McLemore is a 20 year college frosh.

McLemore is a talented college player with lots of room for growth--both in the mental and physical aspects of the game. I think McLemore has the potential to be an outstanding NBA player, maybe even an all-star. Will he get there? Not sure. But I’d take a chance on him.

I'm still looking for one solid example that would make a case for McLemore's weak handle not being an overriding issue. And it's not something he's necessarily going to develop. If it's rudimentary as a 20 yr old frosh. How much is it going to develop beyond where he is now?

I think he has absolutely no chance of being a go-to guy or star on the next level. I don't think I could ever be more certain about a prospect than I am on McLemore. I think people are misreading passiveness for him actually being aware of what he can & cannot do They can run him off screens all day to get decent looks but if his shot is cold, he's completely fuc*ed.

[stevemcqueen1]

Zeller seemed to be pressing yesterday. It wasn't his best game, obvs, but he still hut some clutch free throws and hit 'Dipo for the game-winning assist. Despite the concerns about his game, he's not going to be a realistic option for the Wizards where they are picking. We would be extremely lucky if he falls to us.

Agreed. I think he's a top five pick and I wouldn't be surprised if he went top three.

We keep winning and this class doesn't look that good. I think we just need to pick the BPA. The only position I'd lean away from is PG since I think the team needs a veteran in the backup role. But if the PG is the clear BPA, we probably have to go ahead and pick him. We just need to make sure the guy we pick can play and we can deal him later if need be.

[Dat2U]

I think Oladipo is a better version Mikael Pietrus or Thabo Sefolosha. A great off the ball & team defender. A spot up shooter and finisher in transition. Probably can't expect too much offensively beyond two dribbles. May develop into the ideal glue, utility guy. Like James Posey in his prime. Maybe even Battier, as he seems of similar intelligence.

I think his upside is probably limited because of his handle as well but he seems to have the mental makeup & athleticism to really help whoever drafts him. I could see him being one of those players whose presence impacts in ways you can't quantify. I think he's one of the safest picks in the draft.

[Dat2U]

Zeller seemed to be pressing yesterday. It wasn't his best game, obvs, but he still hut some clutch free throws and hit 'Dipo for the game-winning assist. Despite the concerns about his game, he's not going to be a realistic option for the Wizards where they are picking. We would be extremely lucky if he falls to us.

Agreed. I think he's a top five pick and I wouldn't be surprised if he went top three.

We keep winning and this class doesn't look that good. I think we just need to pick the BPA. The only position I'd lean away from is PG since I think the team needs a veteran in the backup role. But if the PG is the clear BPA, we probably have to go ahead and pick him. We just need to make sure the guy we pick can play and we can deal him later if need be.

With Zeller its all going to depend on his measurements. His brother measured 8'8" which is miserable for a PF, much less a C. There just aren't many examples of even PFs being successful with a standing reach of under 8'10". I wanna say Blake is the only exception mainly due to his freakish athleticism (but it really hurts him defensively).

So if Cody is similar to his brother's length I'm going to have major concerns. If it's at or just above the 8'10" threshold then he may need to transition to PF. For him to realistically play C he really needs to be in the 8'11 to 9'0 range and above. I think Al Horford & Nene are the only exceptions to this (8'10.5) an both of them would prefer to play the PF position.

[DCZards]

I'm still looking for one solid example that would make a case for McLemore's weak handle not being an overriding issue. And it's not something he's necessarily going to develop. If it's rudimentary as a 20 yr old frosh. How much is it going to develop beyond where he is now?

I have no reason to doubt the 20 year old McLemore's ability to get better as a player. He may never have a great handle, but I don't see any reason why it can't improve. He wouldn't be the first young player to significantly improve his ballhandling skills with hard work and good coaching. I guess time will tell.