Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[stevemcqueen1]

Ryen Russillo just said on 980 that he's heard the Wizards are trying to trade their pick more than any other team near the top of the draft. He said he's heard they are trying to package the pick and a bad contract for a player that can help them but he doesn't know who that player is. Could it be just Ersan or other players in play? Or just smoke? Thursday can't get here soon enough

Based on this report at least one of these statements is true:

Ryan Russillo is an idiot - the Wizards aren't really shopping the pick
EG is an idiot - he really is and considering what are likely bad deals

I'm going to say both.

But I have to hope Ted's cheapness and conservativeness are failsafes here.

The other thing that could be true:

The wizards are shopping the pick for something that's actually good.

What about #3 + Nene for DeMarcus Cousins and Salmons?

What about #3 + Okafor for DMC and Salmons?

Don't know how to feel about those moves.

[stevemcqueen1]

I would probably make the deal of #3 and Okafor for Cousins and Salmons. Nene and #3 would be a really tough call.

My considerations:

Salmons is basically an expiring, two years left but the second year is a team option. I don't view him as a significant risk, just an overpaid weight for a year. He wouldn't be a deterrent to making the deal.

Losing Nene is a big risk. So is keeping him. His contract is just a little too long. Bringing in Cousins without having Nene around to anchor the locker room could be dangerous. Nene could also pair well with Boogie, so losing that pairing would be counterproductive.

Losing Okafor is a risk too since he's basically all positive for us right now. He's a hefty expiring that's a great locker room presence and he outperformed expectations last season.

Cousins is a destabilizing element, but our organization could be uniquely suited for him because of Wall. They are the Yin to each other's Yang.

Losing #3 is obviously a huge risk.

Cousins is an RFA next season too. It's conceivable we could max him out and force Sacramento to match, or make them want to do a S&T or something next offseason.

And #3 and Nene/Okafor plus taking back Salmons might not be enough. Might have to throw in future picks. Then you're really talking about some risk.

But OTOH, Cousins is a potential superstar and could give us a well balanced and extremely talented young big 3 for a foundation.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

IMO our best course of action is keep the pick and draft Porter. Establish a foundation of Porter, Beal, Wall. Continue the culture of smart play, team unity, hard work and effort. Nene, Okafor, Webster, Price, Booker remain as vets that contribute to this philosophy. Otto Porter and Erik Murphy are key as rookies (imagine Murphy and Webster as shooters off the bench). Wall and Beal become stars and compete for best backcourt in the league. Make the playoffs and take a step to change league perception of the team.

Go into NEXT offseason with some success and a winning attitude, a 1st round pick, massive salaries coming off the books, Okafor and Ariza, as well as Vesely, Singleton, to legitimately pursue free agents, with a solid young core already in place (Beal, Porter, Wall, our 2014 1st rounder). May also be a good time to upgrade the head coaching spot with a more long-term permanent high profile leader for this team.

The 2014/15 season is when this team can make a major jump.

[WizarDynasty]

except we don't have a go to scorer. If you want to make wall a go to scorer, expect to see the same results with him physically that we saw with Gilbert Arenas. Beal is not a go to scorer, he is a spot up shooter. Porter is not a go to scorer. Nene is not a night to night go to scorer. Okafor definitely is not a go to scorer. There is a huge problem with this line up longterm. Are we expecting to pull a go to front court scorer in the future?
Beal is what he is and he is definitely a system guy, he doesn't have the tools to take over a game at will.
Wall can attack the rim, but do we want that to be his role considering his injury history and what we learned about forcing your point guard to carry the scoring load every night and heighten injury issues associated with being a number one option point guard getting knocked to the ground multiples times per game trying to take it inside.
Porter is absolutely NOT a go to scorer and NEVER will be.
We need a plan.

[bjack18]

I haven't been on in awhile so I just wanted to add my two cents. First, the guy I really like is Oladipo unfortunately he's a 6'4 two guard and we're set there (crossing fingers)...I like Porter but I'm starting to get cold feet about him, love the intangibles but I fear he'll have a Reggie Williams like career. If we stand pat I like Len, Porter and Bennett in that order. However, if it was me I'd trade the pick for Cousins either straight up or if I could get away with trading next years pick along with another future 1st plus Seraphin or Okafor and with the pick we keep draft Porter or trade down for more assets. I wouldn't have any trepidations in acquiring DMC, he needs a fresh start and reuniting with Wall will bring out the best in him as well as being around pros like Beal, Nene, Webster, Okafor and maybe Porter - guys who play the right way with team first mind-sets. Finally, call it poetic justice or karma or simply that the basketball gods AND the Kings owing us one I really feel like Cousins would do for us what CWebb did for Sacramento, he was a lucky shot from Horry in game 6 and complete screw job by the refs in game 7 from probably being a champion. Make it happen Ernie.

[Knighthonor]

except we don't have a go to scorer. If you want to make wall a go to scorer, expect to see the same results with him physically that we saw with Gilbert Arenas. Beal is not a go to scorer, he is a spot up shooter. Porter is not a go to scorer. Nene is not a night to night go to scorer. Okafor definitely is not a go to scorer. There is a huge problem with this line up longterm. Are we expecting to pull a go to front court scorer in the future?
Beal is what he is and he is definitely a system guy, he doesn't have the tools to take over a game at will.
Wall can attack the rim, but do we want that to be his role considering his injury history and what we learned about forcing your point guard to carry the scoring load every night and heighten injury issues associated with being a number one option point guard getting knocked to the ground multiples times per game trying to take it inside.
Porter is absolutely NOT a go to scorer and NEVER will be.
We need a plan.

Ideas?

I like Beal, but I agree. If only he had a drive and can shoot off the dribble comfortable. Man!!!!

Also I totally agree. VO at shooting guard, if he improves his handle to at minimum what Jordan Crawford was, while improving his 3 shot to Beal level, he could be a nice long term starter next to Wall.

But wiz need a Forward. Next draft has Wiggins and Parker. I don't mind tanking if they live up to the hype.
Bennett is just that Risk. If he explodes, that's Good for Washington. If not, that's still good for Washington because they can tank, while still developing Bennett's skill.

If Bennett can hold on to his Three ball and improve it, while continuing to improve his handle and driving on NBA level, he could be the beast Washington been looking for out of one of their bigs. Nene is too injury prone. Oka is getting old. Not sure how long they can keep this up or if they want to keep it up here in Washington.

I don't really see the rush honestly. Get this building block with AB. Yes it's risky, but no rush. Look to next season's lotto for a future all star. Wall need a second star next to him.

Beal could be a Ray Allen, I notice the body language seem similar to me, but he has to greatly improve his handle skills and three ball off the dribble and drive rim skills. That's when he will be a star

[sfam]

Ok sfam, you've been so steadfast in your support of Bennett.

I have to admit, as the draft is getting closer, I may be staring to 2nd guess. Bennett could be a star. Not to compare him to Lebron, but he could be that type of a matchup problem for teams.

I still say Porter, but I'm not sure. Bennett and Len both are intriguing to me.

The great thing is that we're up high enough that we get a chance at a potential impact player. I hope I'm right about Bennett, but if we get Porter or Noel, I'll still be pretty happy.

[Kanyewest]

Ryen Russillo works for ESPN. Does a radio show with Scott Van Pelt, worked the draft combine with Fran, Jay Williams, Chad Ford, and others. He'll be working draft night on the radio as well. Bill Simmons had him on his podcast Sunday to discuss the draft and he said we'd pass on Noel if he was available at 3 because of the red flags.

Thanks. Yeah, I did a little research myself and saw that he was an ESPN guy. Still not sure how well-informed he is though.

Rusillo is a clown. I've never liked him and I still don't understand how he got to where he is today. As far as I can tell, he got canned by the local Patriots owned network he worked for in Boston several years ago for some crap he started with another radio personality there... then suddenly got hired by ESPN and got on shows with Doug Gottlieb and SVP. Must have known somebody. I don't think he's well liked by his peers.

Needless to say, I don't think his information is reliable.

Apparently Rusillo got fired for hitting on the daughter of a Boston sports radio host. http://www.bostonsportsmedia.com/2005/0 ... n-russillo

Whether or not Rusillo is right or not that the Wizards are desperate to move the pick, the most rumors that have come out about a draft pick trade has been the Wizards (with approximately one) with the Illyasova/#3 swap. Still, I hope to believe that the Wizards don't have a "mandate to move the pick" that they did in 2009.

[Deeptu McPullup]

For what its worth here's another article on Porter displaying some offensive concerns:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Situational-Statistics-the-2013-Small-Forward-Crop-4278

As has been the case in recent years with top prospects at the small forward position, who often provide a number of layers of value on both ends the floor aside from their scoring, Otto Porter looks good but not great on paper.

Ranking just above the sample average in usage, Otto Porter's 14.7 possessions isn't terribly impressive, but his 1.06 points per-possession overall ranks fourth in this group, and his free throw rate of 18.5% is good for second. He used 87.3% of his possessions in the half court, the second highest percentage of any small forward prospect. Getting out in transition on a well below average 12.7% of his possessions playing for a very slow-paced Georgetown squad, he scored 1.45 points per-possession and got to the line almost 30% of the time on the break, leading this group in both categories, making you wonder how he'd fare on a team that was more committed to getting out in transition.

Seeing just 20% of his offense creating his own shot on the pick and roll, isolation situations, and post-ups, Porter's profile reflects the work he did in Georgetown's Princeton-style motion offense. Cuts alone account for roughly the same percentage of his total possessions as opportunities to create his own shot. A slightly below average finisher converting 1.13 points per-shot as a sophomore, Porter scored a tremendous 1.393 points per-shot as a freshman in an even more compact role. In contrast to his decline around the rim, Porter made progress as a set shooter this year, knocking down a top-three 42.3% of his catch and shoot jumpers, a significant jump from the 37.4% he made a year ago.

Porter's main weakness on paper aside from his lack of prolific isolation and pick and roll usage, is his pull up jump shot. Making just 25.6% of his 1.3 attempts per-game, it will be worth monitoring whether he can improve as a scorer off the dribble and recapture his efficiency around the rim. Lauded for his ability to help a team as a high-level complementary player, Porter's improved shooting and savvy off-ball movement certainly seem to support claims that he'll fit in on whatever roster he's drafted onto without constantly needing the ball in his hands.


From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2Wt5Z3Xm1
http://www.draftexpress.com

Concerning. There are some shocking positives though that further illustrate how much getting away from Georgetown could help him though. Particularly this quote is exciting to read as a wiz fan:

Ranking just above the sample average in usage, Otto Porter's 14.7 possessions isn't terribly impressive, but his 1.06 points per-possession overall ranks fourth in this group, and his free throw rate of 18.5% is good for second. He used 87.3% of his possessions in the half court, the second highest percentage of any small forward prospect. Getting out in transition on a well below average 12.7% of his possessions playing for a very slow-paced Georgetown squad, he scored 1.45 points per-possession and got to the line almost 30% of the time on the break, leading this group in both categories, making you wonder how he'd fare on a team that was more committed to getting out in transition.

The worst tidbit I saw on Porter was this:

Even after Porter took the reins in his sophomore year, he still did not post the usage and related scoring volume you expect of a future star against college competition. This is likely a function of his poor penetration ability. He only got to the rim 2.6 times every 40 minutes and usually got there with the help of an assist. This did not really hurt his efficiency in college but it could be a problem in the NBA.

http://www.canishoopus.com/2013/5/18/43 ... l-forwards

That's a cause for some concern as you'd really like to see him use his size to score more inside, so the DX breakdown is somewhat encouraging as he was at least better at the rim as a rolepalyer the year before.

Ultimately, everyone has some dings against them, so it doesn't shuffle the pecking order for me with Porter and Dipo being the guys I'm most comfortable with.

[Knighthonor]

Noel has great D, but poor Offense.
Bennett has great Offense but poor D.


So seem equal in that regards, just different.
What's your opinion?

[Deeptu McPullup]

Noel has great D, but poor Offense.
Bennett has great Offense but poor D.

So seem equal in that regards, just different.
What's your opinion?

I'm not even so sure that Bennet has "great offense". He played 13.5% of UNLV's total minutes and accounted for 6% of the total team assists. It was a mediocre offense by efficiency and the eyeball test suggested to me that he struggled to integrate with the rest of the team in the halfcourt. He has nice tools and ball skills, but that's not the same thing as being a great offensive player or being a guy who has a place within an elite offense. Porter and Dipo look like guys who can take on lower usage rates within a high efficiency offense more easily than Bennet's "throw me the rock" game. My suspicion is that Bennet's now a high usage player on an average offense with a major reworking of his habits and propensities required to integrate into an attack within the high strata of team ORTG.

Noel is probably ready to contribute as a center on offense with above average passing as soon as he's physically ready to play. Not sure about his medical situation, though. I'll admit it, I 'd at that picture of him on the bench with that knee swelling; maybe it's nothing but if one doctor told me his knee was trouble I'd be spooked while it would take multiple doctors saying he'd be fine to push things the other way. Don't know enough about it, but it's quite concerning with the main issue being his propensity towards future injuries.

[gambitx777]

Rusillo report or no, Ive never been a fan of noel, Ive been against him for months. But reports from rusillo and others, are just adding to my existing belief. Noel is not worth the pick. I would rather take Len or trade down for Adams before taking Noel.

But on trading the pick, i don't mind as long as we get a first round pick back in the deal. Also there are some chances to get picks next year, some teams own protected picks, they could trade them and their pick this year to get our 3ed in the right deal. Since a team can only trade picks two years in a row as long as they had an extra pick to trade in at least one of those years. Its a good opportunity to take a player this year and possibly have two picks next year. Of course we would want to dump a player and maybe get some one in return as well.

[Jazzfan12]

Noel has great D, but poor Offense.
Bennett has great Offense but poor D.


So seem equal in that regards, just different.
What's your opinion?

Noel's offense is much better than Bennett's defense, Noel's defense has a chance to be the best in the league whereas Bennett will never be one of the best scoring big men in the NBA. You can win with great defensive big men who are limited to dunks offensively, it's really hard to win with big men who are total defensive liabilities.

[Knighthonor]

I just had a nightmare that EG traded down. Woke up to check the forum lol.

[jivelikenice]

Noel has great D, but poor Offense.
Bennett has great Offense but poor D.


So seem equal in that regards, just different.
What's your opinion?

Noel's offense is much better than Bennett's defense, Noel's defense has a chance to be the best in the league whereas Bennett will never be one of the best scoring big men in the NBA. You can win with great defensive big men who are limited to dunks offensively, it's really hard to win with big men who are total defensive liabilities.

What offense does Noels have? Like you said, dunks is it and he'll need someone to create an opening for his or run the floor to get a dunk. He's not going to back anyone down anytime soon....

[gambitx777]

Noel won't be as good of a defender as he was in college, in the NBA when hes facing bigger, stronger and more athletic players than he did in college night in night out, he won't be as good when he can't rely on his athleticism alone. I doubt his offence will ever catch on, it could , I could be totally wrong about Noel, I just really don't think he will live up to all the hype.

[Ruzious]

Noel won't be as good of a defender as he was in college, in the NBA when hes facing bigger, stronger and more athletic players than he did in college night in night out, he won't be as good when he can't rely on his athleticism alone. I doubt his offence will ever catch on, it could , I could be totally wrong about Noel, I just really don't think he will live up to all the hype.

But people said the exact same things about Noah - and they have almost identical builds while Noel is longer and quicker. They also have that same competitiveness that's made their critics wrong. Noah was a 223 lb junior when he was measured at the combine. I don't think there's any doubt Noah will be at least as heavy and strong when he's as old as Noah as a junior. People laughed at Noah's offensive ability, because of his ugly shot. Well, he still has an ugly shot, but he's an effective offensive player.

[gambitx777]

Noel won't be as good of a defender as he was in college, in the NBA when hes facing bigger, stronger and more athletic players than he did in college night in night out, he won't be as good when he can't rely on his athleticism alone. I doubt his offence will ever catch on, it could , I could be totally wrong about Noel, I just really don't think he will live up to all the hype.

But people said the exact same things about Noah - and they have almost identical builds while Noel is longer and quicker. They also have that same competitiveness that's made their critics wrong. Noah was a 223 lb junior when he was measured at the combine. I don't think there's any doubt Noah will be at least as heavy and strong when he's as old as Noah as a junior. People laughed at Noah's offensive ability, because of his ugly shot. Well, he still has an ugly shot, but he's an effective offensive player.

His shot may have been ugly but he was more proven than Noel, Noah did not blow his ACL in his freshman year, and he won 2 NCAA championships. He was a proven winner.

Noel has not proven anything, and has a lot more red flags than Noah.

[Ruzious]

Noel won't be as good of a defender as he was in college, in the NBA when hes facing bigger, stronger and more athletic players than he did in college night in night out, he won't be as good when he can't rely on his athleticism alone. I doubt his offence will ever catch on, it could , I could be totally wrong about Noel, I just really don't think he will live up to all the hype.

But people said the exact same things about Noah - and they have almost identical builds while Noel is longer and quicker. They also have that same competitiveness that's made their critics wrong. Noah was a 223 lb junior when he was measured at the combine. I don't think there's any doubt Noah will be at least as heavy and strong when he's as old as Noah as a junior. People laughed at Noah's offensive ability, because of his ugly shot. Well, he still has an ugly shot, but he's an effective offensive player.

His shot may have been ugly but he was more proven than Noel, Noah did not blow his ACL in his freshman year, and he won 2 NCAA championships. He was a proven winner.

Noel has not proven anything, and has a lot more red flags than Noah.

It' s kinda hard for a freshman to win 2 NCAA championships - pretty sure it um... hasn't been done very often. Again, you're comparing a junior to a freshman. Noah did next to nothing as a freshman, and he played next to Al Horford on those championship teams. Noel played with a bunch of scared freshmen.

[pancakes3]

Noel has great D, but poor Offense.
Bennett has great Offense but poor D.


So seem equal in that regards, just different.
What's your opinion?

Noel's offense is much better than Bennett's defense, Noel's defense has a chance to be the best in the league whereas Bennett will never be one of the best scoring big men in the NBA. You can win with great defensive big men who are limited to dunks offensively, it's really hard to win with big men who are total defensive liabilities.

What offense does Noels have? Like you said, dunks is it and he'll need someone to create an opening for his or run the floor to get a dunk. He's not going to back anyone down anytime soon....

While it'd be nice if Noel could post people up, the fact that offensively he's completely inept. Being able to run the floor, finish, pass out of double teams, not turn the ball over are all very important skills to have and Noel has the awareness.

Plus he draws a surprising amount of fouls. Noel takes less shots yet shoots more free throws than Bennett and that's as a non-primary scoring option. Adjusted for minutes, Noel accounts for 19% of the free throws taken on Kentucky and Bennett accounts for 23%.