Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[payitforward]

My thoughts are simple on Wall. He just signed a massive deal and is coming off an injured year. His value will probably never be lower.
No need to entertain any Wall trade right now, so we might as well re-evaluate next summer.
I think Wall is going to come back to be the player he was in 16/17. That may not be an ELITE All-NBA player, but it aint far off.

Makes good sense to me.

The Rivers situation is the one im keeping an eye on. He is the the only player we can trade that isnt a complete negative (Mahinmi) and makes a substantial salary to help alleviate Tax. Kieff at 8M doesnt quite do it... plus we have very little depth at the 4 position as we only have Otto (Who starts at the 3 and might not hold up) and an old Jeff Green.

Again, that makes sense. Except Austin Rivers is a negative. At least Mahinmi has had a couple of actually good years -- something that can't be said of Rivers.

The Gortat-Rivers swap was a deal of convenience & no more for both teams, which makes me think that they had been unable to get any other offer for Rivers. Hence, unless he turns it around in some super-significant way, I can't see why we'd be able to move him any easier than the Clippers were this Summer.

I'd also keep Sacramento on speed dial with a blow up trade of some sort.
I.E. Otto & Mahinmi for Shump, Randolph, McLemore, Giles, future pick.
We immediately get out of tax this year and open up about 14M in cap space next year (assuming Dwight declines Option)
Obviously, Sato & Oubre would have to take big steps to prove this downgrade is worthwhile.

I thought you were interested in an all-out effort to see the most we can get out of the current gang!

Your trade leaves with @$74m to 5 guys next year (Wall, Beal, Brown, Giles & a 2019 R1 pick) plus plenty of room to re-ink Sato, Oubre & Bryant (total of, say, $20m??). $9m for a MLE guy would put us at @ $103m for 9 guys. If Howard did pick up his extension that's 10 guys for under $109m. We'd certainly be able to stay under the tax. I'd rather it be Beal than Porter who went.

It's an interesting scenario. But... I don't think Sac'to will want to deal Giles. Plus, I'm not sure how much benefit there would be for them (especially if it's Beal rather than Porter in the deal).

[Ruzious]

If they trade Beal or Porter, they better get significant value back - rather than just salary and lux tax relief. Otherwise, it looks like you're directionless, and fans will completely lose interest.

[NatP4]

If they trade Beal or Porter, they better get significant value back - rather than just salary and lux tax relief. Otherwise, it looks like you're directionless, and fans will completely lose interest.

Why would we ever lose interest????

Read on Twitter

[pcbothwel]

PIF,
Rivers: Mahinmi has been a better Center than Rivers a guard. But positional value, age, and contract are huge variables you are ignoring. I think Rivers has his best year this year, but even with that aside, the fact that he plays a more valuable role in todays NBA and is expiring make him much easier to move.

Dealing Brad / Otto: Its just a break glass in case of emergency. If we dont gel, its a way to get under tax and reboot fast.
That said... I think I have come to the conclusion I proceed as follows:
Assumptions:
- Brad and Wall return to form and Otto is Otto.
- Sato looks strong and Oubre takes the next step to prove he is the starting 3 with Otto the 4 (Did anyone notice how big Otto looks in his shoulders and neck... Man that would be great)
- We go into New Year on 50+ win pace.

Plan:
- Use our 2019 1st to get under Cap by dealing Rivers, not Mahinmi. Kings are easiest trade, but a 3rd team could be used as well.
- Resign Sato and Oubre to combined starting salaries of 20M or less next year.
- With the Cap at 101M, 109M, 118M, and 124M over the next 4 years... We would NOT be in repeater tax.
18/19: Rivers, 1st, Filler trade gets us out of tax
19/20: Back in tax to retain Oubre/Sato
20/21: 10M increase in tax plus Mahinmi expiring get us out of tax
21/22: We can go back in tax to retain Brad and Otto... but lets face it, this is 3 years away so no need to get to wonky about it.

As I mentioned to you before PIF, I try to emulate some of the thinking of ownership/FO when thinking about decision making.
I think Rivers + 1st could actually bring back a neutral asset that EG could save face with
- Think of Nicholson trade... he sold the fans on Bogey and McCullough... He'll do the same here I believe.

I.E. Rivers and 1st to the Kings for Yogi Farrell, Skal, or Mason and 2nd
I think this is VERY doable and there are many iterations if you bring in a 3rd team. You would ship Rivers to a 3rd team for another player going to the Kings. (Rivers to Philly, Bayless and 1st to Kings, TPE and 2nd to Wiz).

Kings: Essentially pay about 4-5M for a pick in the top 25... well worth it
Wiz: We get below tax and at least get a 2nd
Possible 3rd team: Would upgrade from bad player to simply average to below average one for additional 1-2M in cost.
- I could certainly see a non tax paying team like Philly or NYK doing this.

- I could also see the 3rd team wanting the 1st and sending a decent asset to the Kings instead.
I.E. D'Angelo Russell, TJ Warren, Dwight Powell, Exum, Cory Joseph, Crowder, Hezonja

*** Remember, we dont just dump Rivers salary for a 1st. We would get an asset back like a decent Min player and a 2nd.
Seems reasonable. Thoughts?

[miller31time]

If they trade Beal or Porter, they better get significant value back - rather than just salary and lux tax relief. Otherwise, it looks like you're directionless, and fans will completely lose interest.

Why would we ever lose interest????

Read on Twitter

Lol. Glad to see we’ve learned from past mistakes.

Never change, Wizards.

[barelyawake]

If they trade Beal or Porter, they better get significant value back - rather than just salary and lux tax relief. Otherwise, it looks like you're directionless, and fans will completely lose interest.

Why would we ever lose interest????

Read on Twitter

Lol. Glad to see we’ve learned from past mistakes.

Never change, Wizards.

I Have no idea what that Wall quote was about, but anyone asking John Wall if he’s the 32nd best player in the league better expect a fight (and that’s because of the question not the answer). Stop blaming Wall for the media nonsense.

[doclinkin]

Why would we ever lose interest????

Read on Twitter

Lol. Glad to see we’ve learned from past mistakes.

Never change, Wizards.

I Have no idea what that Wall quote was about, but anyone asking John Wall if he’s the 32nd best player in the league better expect a fight (and that’s because of the question not the answer). Stop blaming Wall for the media nonsense.

ESPN ranked the 100 players in the league and had Wall at 32.

[Wizardspride]

Lol. Glad to see we’ve learned from past mistakes.

Never change, Wizards.

I Have no idea what that Wall quote was about, but anyone asking John Wall if he’s the 32nd best player in the league better expect a fight (and that’s because of the question not the answer). Stop blaming Wall for the media nonsense.

ESPN ranked the 100 players in the league and had Wall at 32.

Exactly.

Context is everything.

[nate33]

Would you trade John Wall for Jimmy Butler? Would Minnesota?

It would make for an interesting team. We'd have 7 guys 6-5 or taller who can create off the dribble, run pick-and-rolls, and guard 1-4 defensively: Sato, Beal, Butler, Oubre, Porter, Brown and Green. Throw in Howard to guard 5's and rebound and Morris to guard burly 4's. There's no real PG there (except Sato) but you'd always be able to attack the opposition's worst defender. Crunch time lineup could be: Butler, Beal, Oubre, Porter, Howard (or Morris).

We'd get out from Wall's contract and resolve all of our long term cap problems.

[NatP4]

“Stop blaming Wall for the media nonsense”

[Illmatic12]

Would you trade John Wall for Jimmy Butler? Would Minnesota?

It would make for an interesting team. We'd have 7 guys 6-5 or taller who can create off the dribble, run pick-and-rolls, and guard 1-4 defensively: Sato, Beal, Butler, Oubre, Porter, Brown and Green. Throw in Howard to guard 5's and rebound and Morris to guard burly 4's. There's no real PG there (except Sato) but you'd always be able to attack the opposition's worst defender. Crunch time lineup could be: Butler, Beal, Oubre, Porter, Howard (or Morris).

We'd get out from Wall's contract and resolve all of our long term cap problems.

Wouldn't Wall's contract just be replaced by Butler's? He wants the 5yr super max , not only that he is older & more injury prone than John.

Secondly, what would be the ceiling on that team? It's not like we'd suddenly become contenders status.. idk it's just a lateral move at best if you ask me

[NatP4]

Well, Butler can’t get the supermax, and obviously the ceiling is higher because, Butler is better than Wall.

There’s nothing lateral about saving 170 million.

[Illmatic12]

Well, Butler can’t get the supermax, and obviously the ceiling is higher because, Butler is better than Wall.

There’s nothing lateral about saving 170 million.

If Butler is traded, he can sign for around 5yrs/$190 million. You're basically just taking Wall's contract and giving it to Butler (give or take a few million).

Is Butler a championship #1 option? Yes or no? If the answer is no then how does he raise our ceiling beyond what it is (ie ~2nd round exit team, or ECF if we're lucky). Now if you're talking about adding Butler to the core we already have without giving up too much, then we can start to look at the team as being in a higher tier.

[DCZards]

Would you trade John Wall for Jimmy Butler? Would Minnesota?

It would make for an interesting team. We'd have 7 guys 6-5 or taller who can create off the dribble, run pick-and-rolls, and guard 1-4 defensively: Sato, Beal, Butler, Oubre, Porter, Brown and Green. Throw in Howard to guard 5's and rebound and Morris to guard burly 4's. There's no real PG there (except Sato) but you'd always be able to attack the opposition's worst defender. Crunch time lineup could be: Butler, Beal, Oubre, Porter, Howard (or Morris).

We'd get out from Wall's contract and resolve all of our long term cap problems.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that any of these guys--other than Beal and Butler--have shown the ability to create off the dribble. Porter and Sato are not very good at creating for themselves and others, Oubre is getting better but still only so-so at it, it's not one of Green's strengths, and we don't know really what we have yet in Brown, although I also expect him to be very good at creating off the dribble.

Rivers, the guy you left out, is better than creating off the dribble than most of the players you named.

Biggest problem I have is that we'd be trading an all-star and one of the best PGs in the game (Wall) for a probable one-year rental in Butler. Yeah, I know, that would still address the long-term cap problem even if Butler did not resign, but my concern is that without Wall or Butler we'd probably be looking at suckitude (8-10 seed) for a Zards team that is currently one of the 3-4 top teams in the East. I consider that an unnecessary--and risky--step backwards.

[keynote]

FWIW, I had a very vivid dream last night that the Wizards traded Wall for Butler. My in-dream reaction was basically the Zo "I can see both sides" gif.

[Dat2U]

I see the Wizards doing everything to get under the luxury tax in 19-20 not this year. Unless the Wizards have completely gone down in flames by the all-star break, I seriously doubt Ernie/Ted blows things up or sacrifices assets to get under the tax this season.

If your paying attention, this season is the Wizards version of "going all in".

If anything, the Wizards may swap Mahinmi's deal and the '19 1st round pick for an expiring contract that can contribute at the deadline as a way to add that missing piece for this season and to get under the luxury tax for next season.

As far as the Oubre question. I think his future in DC all comes down to this season. I think they like him and want to keep him. Ernie like most GMs, develop a bond for the guy they've drafted and watched develop. It will come down to the jump Oubre makes this season and the overall performance of the team to see if he'll stay in DC beyond next season. If both he and the Wizards have a "successful" season, they'll find a way to keep him.

[Ruzious]

I see the Wizards doing everything to get under the luxury tax in 19-20. Unless the Wizards have completely gone down in flames by the all-star break, I seriously doubt Ernie/Ted blows things up or sacrifices assets to get under the tax this season.

This season is the Wizards version of "going all in".

If anything, the Wizards may swap Mahinmi's deal and the '19 1st round pick for an expiring contract that can contribute at the deadline as a way to add that missing piece for this season and get under the luxury tax for next season.

I think there's literally no chance they get under the lux tax in 2018/19 - once they chose not to stretch Mahinmi. Sac is the ONLY team with current significant cap space, and even they don't have enough to take all of Manhini's contract without us taking about $5 mil in contracts from them. And with the multiplier effect next season, if they're in lux tax land next season, they'll get hit hard as hell.

[NatP4]

Would you trade John Wall for Jimmy Butler? Would Minnesota?

It would make for an interesting team. We'd have 7 guys 6-5 or taller who can create off the dribble, run pick-and-rolls, and guard 1-4 defensively: Sato, Beal, Butler, Oubre, Porter, Brown and Green. Throw in Howard to guard 5's and rebound and Morris to guard burly 4's. There's no real PG there (except Sato) but you'd always be able to attack the opposition's worst defender. Crunch time lineup could be: Butler, Beal, Oubre, Porter, Howard (or Morris).

We'd get out from Wall's contract and resolve all of our long term cap problems.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that any of these guys--other than Beal and Butler--have shown the ability to create off the dribble. Porter and Sato are not very good at creating for themselves and others, Oubre is getting better but still only so-so at it, it's not one of Green's strengths, and we don't know really what we have yet in Brown, although I also expect him to be very good at creating off the dribble.

Rivers, the guy you left out, is better than creating off the dribble than most of the players you named.

Biggest problem I have is that we'd be trading an all-star and one of the best PGs in the game (Wall) for a probable one-year rental in Butler. Yeah, I know, that would still address the long-term cap problem even if Butler did not resign, but my concern is that without Wall or Butler we'd probably be looking at suckitude (8-10 seed) for a Zards team that is currently one of the 3-4 top teams in the East. I consider that an unnecessary--and risky--step backwards.

That’s fairly shortsighted. “It fixes the long term cap problem, but it’s an unnecessary step backwards” ....alrighty.

And come on, when will you learn that “shot creators” are usually just really bad players that do fancy dribbles and chuck a lot of bad shots. Austin Rivers is terrible. He is not better at creating off the dribble than Otto and Sato just because he takes more shots than them lol.

You might think Wall is one of the top PGs in the league now, but how good is he going to be when he’s 30 years old making 40 million a year? How is he going to age?

And the suckitude comment is just based on nothing whatsoever.

[Ruzious]

Would you trade John Wall for Jimmy Butler? Would Minnesota?

It would make for an interesting team. We'd have 7 guys 6-5 or taller who can create off the dribble, run pick-and-rolls, and guard 1-4 defensively: Sato, Beal, Butler, Oubre, Porter, Brown and Green. Throw in Howard to guard 5's and rebound and Morris to guard burly 4's. There's no real PG there (except Sato) but you'd always be able to attack the opposition's worst defender. Crunch time lineup could be: Butler, Beal, Oubre, Porter, Howard (or Morris).

We'd get out from Wall's contract and resolve all of our long term cap problems.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that any of these guys--other than Beal and Butler--have shown the ability to create off the dribble. Porter and Sato are not very good at creating for themselves and others, Oubre is getting better but still only so-so at it, it's not one of Green's strengths, and we don't know really what we have yet in Brown, although I also expect him to be very good at creating off the dribble.

Rivers, the guy you left out, is better than creating off the dribble than most of the players you named.

Biggest problem I have is that we'd be trading an all-star and one of the best PGs in the game (Wall) for a probable one-year rental in Butler. Yeah, I know, that would still address the long-term cap problem even if Butler did not resign, but my concern is that without Wall or Butler we'd probably be looking at suckitude (8-10 seed) for a Zards team that is currently one of the 3-4 top teams in the East. I consider that an unnecessary--and risky--step backwards.

That’s fairly shortsighted. “It fixes the long term cap problem, but it’s an unnecessary step backwards” ....alrighty.

And come on, when will you learn that “shot creators” are usually just really bad players that do fancy dribbles and chuck a lot of bad shots. Austin Rivers is terrible. He is not better at creating off the dribble than Otto and Sato just because he takes more shots than them lol.

You might think Wall is one of the top PGs in the league now, but how good is he going to be when he’s 30 years old making 40 million a year? How is he going to age?

And the suckitude comment is just based on nothing whatsoever.

There are some players who can shoot off the dribble and pretty much can't catch and shoot to save your life. Rivers is one of them. And those stats have been posted here. What DCZards said there was correct. And there are other players like that who are better than Rivers. Gilbert Arenas was much better isoing off the dribble as were many of the great guards.

[NatP4]

I think it's a stretch to suggest that any of these guys--other than Beal and Butler--have shown the ability to create off the dribble. Porter and Sato are not very good at creating for themselves and others, Oubre is getting better but still only so-so at it, it's not one of Green's strengths, and we don't know really what we have yet in Brown, although I also expect him to be very good at creating off the dribble.

Rivers, the guy you left out, is better than creating off the dribble than most of the players you named.

Biggest problem I have is that we'd be trading an all-star and one of the best PGs in the game (Wall) for a probable one-year rental in Butler. Yeah, I know, that would still address the long-term cap problem even if Butler did not resign, but my concern is that without Wall or Butler we'd probably be looking at suckitude (8-10 seed) for a Zards team that is currently one of the 3-4 top teams in the East. I consider that an unnecessary--and risky--step backwards.

That’s fairly shortsighted. “It fixes the long term cap problem, but it’s an unnecessary step backwards” ....alrighty.

And come on, when will you learn that “shot creators” are usually just really bad players that do fancy dribbles and chuck a lot of bad shots. Austin Rivers is terrible. He is not better at creating off the dribble than Otto and Sato just because he takes more shots than them lol.

You might think Wall is one of the top PGs in the league now, but how good is he going to be when he’s 30 years old making 40 million a year? How is he going to age?

And the suckitude comment is just based on nothing whatsoever.

There are some players who can shoot off the dribble and pretty much can't catch and shoot to save your life. Rivers is one of them. And those stats have been posted here. What DCZards said there was correct. And there are other players like that who are better than Rivers. Gilbert Arenas was much better isoing off the dribble as were many of the great guards.

Thank you for that brilliant insight.

I will add- there are some players who post a career TS% of .506. Averaging 9.4 points per game on 8.4 shots!!!!!!!!!! Wow! Not to mention the 3 whole rebounds per 36.

So his strength must be defense right? Right??!!