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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1021 » by payitforward » Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:22 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:A player is as good as the numbers he puts up when on the court -- quantity numbers & percentage numbers. Period.

Again, this proposition fails the proof. A player will produce differently depending on the players that player is playing with as well as the schema that player is playing in (the 5 center rotation that isn't real world but proves the point)....

& if you tie one hand to his hip -- don't forget that. :)

Apparently, I forgot the word "overall" in the sentence you quote above. Let me correct myself: overall, a player is as good as the overall numbers he puts up when on the court -- quantity numbers & percentage numbers. Period.

Players aren't machines. They don't reproduce their overall average results each time they take the court. Thus, one must also say that a player is as good in a particular game as the numbers he puts up in that particular game.

The overall numbers are a measure over time; they include every single one of the times the player produces at a level above his average along with all the times he produces at a below average level. I.e. the overall numbers are a result of all conditions, of every minute played with every other player the guy plays with.

Those numbers tell us how good he is overall. They are how we judge every single player in the league.

We have 3 plus years of those numbers for Rui.
OTOH, if you imagine there's some set of players on this team, or on any team, that would make Rui produce better results if/when they played alongside him, feel free to suggest their names.

dckingsfan wrote:...Given that this is the line-ups and rotation analysis thread. I would think you would need to have a way to prove otherwise, no? ...

I think it'd be up to you to "prove" your point -- though proof is too severe a test. Just providing some evidence would suffice as a strong start. With whom does Rui play best?

dckingsfan wrote:...One could posit that Rui isn't a good player....

"Good player" = "player who puts up good overall numbers while on the court." Period. To date, a handful of games into his 4th season, Rui hasn't done that, neither overall nor for any of those seasons.

Hence, we don't have to "posit" anything. Overall, in his career to this point, Rui Hachimura hasn't been a good player.

dckingsfan wrote:...But it is an entirely different proposition to posit that there isn't an ideal rotation to maximize Rui's numbers within this current roster and a set of schemas that a coach could roll out....

?? Why would anyone posit this? Plus... who cares? &, finally, why is it a goal to "maximize Rui's numbers?"

Or do you mean to posit that there is "an ideal rotation" that would BOTH a) maximize Rui's numbers & also b) produce better overall team numbers than the same rotation except with someone else on the floor instead of Rui?

If this second "ideal rotation" is what you mean, then please note Doc's original point about Rui's effect on the output of rotations he's part of. All rotations.

dckingsfan wrote:...Or let me put it another way, if I was going to accentuate Rui's inability to rebound, I would pair him with Gafford and Gill.

But... but... but... Rui *has* played with those guys! Have those minutes served to "accentuate Rui's inability to rebound?"
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1022 » by dckingsfan » Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:11 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:...Or let me put it another way, if I was going to accentuate Rui's inability to rebound, I would pair him with Gafford and Gill.

But... but... but... Rui *has* played with those guys! Have those minutes served to "accentuate Rui's inability to rebound?"

I would say it accentuated Rui's inability to rebound. Actually, none of the three has rebounded well this season. One would think that when paired with those two there would be more rebounds to be had. And yet...

On the other hand the Deni, Kuz pairing is rebounding pretty darn well as a forward duo.

Now, if you paired Rui with Giannis Antetokounmpo, I think it wouldn't matter - he is going to suck up all the defensive rebounds. And that negative aspect of his game would be less impactful (negatively).
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1023 » by dckingsfan » Sun Oct 30, 2022 11:12 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:A player is as good as the numbers he puts up when on the court -- quantity numbers & percentage numbers. Period.

payitforward wrote:If you sub a single worse player for a single better player, you get worse team numbers independent of any of the other guys.

payitforward wrote:I think it'd be up to you to "prove" your point -- though proof is too severe a test. Just providing some evidence would suffice as a strong start. With whom does Rui play best?

I posited the following: I would say if there is a lineup with one PG and 4 Cs and I was to substitute in another C for the PG, then it could easily shown that you could substitute in a better player and get worse numbers for that player and the entire group.

Thanks for the back and forth on this. I think it is material to this thread. Specifically, the rotations, lineups and schemas used directly impact the numbers of the player.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1024 » by FAH1223 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 4:30 am

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1025 » by WallToWall » Tue Nov 1, 2022 5:47 am

FAH1223 wrote:
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I don’t know why it’s taking the Wizards top brass so long for this revelation to have enough weight, so that they make a move.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1026 » by doclinkin » Tue Nov 1, 2022 12:41 pm

WallToWall wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:
Read on Twitter

I don’t know why it’s taking the Wizards top brass so long for this revelation to have enough weight, so that they make a move.



Right? Seems obvious to anyone. It's almost like they WANT to lose. What the hell? dot dot dot :

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1027 » by doclinkin » Tue Nov 1, 2022 1:06 pm

Given that this is the line-ups thread, it had me thinking what is the most tanktastic line-up that looks like it is plausibly trying to win but will consistently fall short.

Our starting line-up is going to be

Morris
Beal
xxx
Kuzma
KP

no matter what. The choice of "xxx" determines the rest of the roster. To my way of thinking players like Rui and Gafford benefit most by playing next to a true PG. Which means avoiding minutes where they develop chemistry with Morris.

So that means the 2nd line has

??
??
??
Rui
Gafford.

One problem is that Deni plays well with anybody. He is a team player, yeah he may be timid to shoot and get snuffed on the interior, but in general he finds a way to make the right play. If you play him with starters he makes up for deficiencies on defense and does not need the ball next to the high usage Beal/Kuz/KP.

The only player he does not seem to play well with is Rui. Which means, okay, let's bench Deni for a stretch and stack up some losses. He plays well next to competent and skilled players who know what to with or without the ball in team play. Hiding him in the 2nd line blunts whatever he does do well. So boom.

??
??
Deni
Rui
Gafford

This bumps one of Kispert, Barton, or Gil to the starting line. As a 2nd year player Kispert is a bit of a wild card, sure to make some mistakes but came on strong late season to show he knows what to do out there. 3pt shooters also add variance to the equation, if they get hot a game can swing in your favor. Maybe this means sticking him with the starters since he won't be a focal point and will get fewer chances to disrupt the flow, but as a skilled offball player this seems risky that he and Morris might get a groove and make space Fortunately for the tankstakes Kispert is injured and his recovery can be slow played.

So, Barton or Gill. Gill has a negative +/- with any bench player, and a positive +/- with any starter. But his numbers are not radical in either direction. He can only play forward, but is not greedy for touches. Posting him with the starters is not too much of a risk of a breakout. He can defend a bit, but not enough to turn a game.

Barton is a ball handling playmaker who does well in an unstructured offense because he is unpredictable. The 2nd line has nobody who can breakdown opponents on the dribble, we still need to look like we are trying. Seems like the answer is to play Barton and make him a PG. Let Deni handle some against pressure.

Lastly, at the other guard spot you can put anyone out there who is not a risk to shoot 3's. You want no space on court for Gafford to get loose, if there is a crowd in the paint Rui will drive into it. So lean on whichever end of bench or G-League guard you got who has the least pure outside shot. Make a mess, crowd the interior. Or hey better yet, can we find minutes for a recent draft pick who clearly lacks the athleticism to excel in this league? Or is that too obvious a tanking move. Maybe we should still hide him a bit.

Anyway this way when losing streaks happen you can still point to your front line who plausibly look like NBA players. And then say injuries to your most important (2nd line low usage) back up guard, and your promising (back-up 2nd year, non defending) shooter, are the reason for ALL of your failings,
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1028 » by DCZards » Tue Nov 1, 2022 3:11 pm

WallToWall wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:
Read on Twitter

I don’t know why it’s taking the Wizards top brass so long for this revelation to have enough weight, so that they make a move.

It's so frustrating to watch the Zards implode at crunch time because they insist on playing Beal at PG. Beal is NOT a PG. He has neither the handle or the decisionmaking skills to be successful in that role. Putting Beal at PG was a problem in past seasons and now the Zards are repeating that very same mistake. Frustrating.

It's in the best interest of everyone--the team and, especially, Beal--to let Morris run the offense and let BB run off picks, etc. for good shots. Another option is to sign a true PG who might be available.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1029 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 1, 2022 3:14 pm

I think the best offense that the Wizards have is running the offense through Porzingis on the high post. I thought Wes had figured this out but...
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1030 » by NatP4 » Tue Nov 1, 2022 3:23 pm

Rui is a horrible. They need to move him before he has no value at all. Deni is being completely misused/underused. Wright was a significantly more impactful player than Morris. Wes is proving once again, that he is nothing more than a mediocre non-imaginative coach.

This team is a pile of mediocre nothingness
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1031 » by DCZards » Tue Nov 1, 2022 3:44 pm

dckingsfan wrote:I think the best offense that the Wizards have is running the offense through Porzingis on the high post. I thought Wes had figured this out but...

Running the offense through KP is something that I like as well. But there comes a point in every game (usually at crunch time) where the best offense is having a PG (or SG) who can manage the clock, call plays, set up teammates and/or create for themselves. Pretty much all of the top teams have someone like that.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1032 » by Godymas » Tue Nov 1, 2022 4:19 pm

i don't like this team, i like so much less than last years team. it just feels like a bunch of dudes that got mixed up together, the chemistry is so poor and the roster cohesion doesn't really make sense at times. last year Gafford was a starter, this year he comes off the bench. Today Deni starts in place of Will Barton. Beal is actually too selfless, he needs to stabilize the team doing what he does best which is being the #1 option. That performance against Boston? Beal should be ashamed to play that bad in front of someone he considers a younger brother in Tatum.

Barton and Monte Morris are nice pieces, we haven't started Barton once for whatever reason. Apparently Anthony Gill started a game? Delon Wright being injured so early really hurts, he's supposed to be a nice glue guy, clearly one of the better acquisitions we made. Taj Gibson has literally played 11 minutes for some reason, no idea what the point of even signing him was.

Deni has no consistent offensive game, never gets a chance to just chuck up shots to try something. He screams of "we didn't match his contract and now he looks so much better elsewhere". I'm just waiting for someone like Utah to scoop him up and he becomes an elite 3 and D player.

Rui is not it, not good at all, Johnny Davis who is supposed to be a high floor type of guy has been terrible in the limited minutes he's played, looks completely lost on defense. Kuz is fine except he still takes too many bad shots. It's obvious he's more of a Jordan Clarkson type of player, he'd win 6MoTY easily coming off the bench for a good team.

Porzingis is just doing what is expected of him, considering he got his contract due to being an All Star, he still has yet to play at an All Star level with Beal. Their chemistry is also painful to watch.

In general it feels like Beal doesn't have much chemistry with half this team, it doesn't even make sense why some of these guys are on the roster.

I see a consolidation trade happening where we trade away young guys like Rui + Johnny Davis, maybe some contract filler and try and find a better starter somehow.

And finally there's WUJ, he just isn't it as a head coach so far, hasn't really given any identity to this team. I don't fully blame him because the roster construction makes it hard to give any identity to this team.

I don't care how good the WB trade looked at the time, I'd rather have Beal and WB as a back court instead of today's mess.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1033 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 1, 2022 5:01 pm

DCZards wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I think the best offense that the Wizards have is running the offense through Porzingis on the high post. I thought Wes had figured this out but...

Running the offense through KP is something that I like as well. But there comes a point in every game (usually at crunch time) where the best offense is having a PG (or SG) who can manage the clock, call plays, set up teammates and/or create for themselves. Pretty much all of the top teams have someone like that.

Respectfully agree to disagree on this... Running your best offense is running your best offense. Does Denver revert to a different offense at crunch time? Nope.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1034 » by DCZards » Tue Nov 1, 2022 8:07 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
DCZards wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I think the best offense that the Wizards have is running the offense through Porzingis on the high post. I thought Wes had figured this out but...

Running the offense through KP is something that I like as well. But there comes a point in every game (usually at crunch time) where the best offense is having a PG (or SG) who can manage the clock, call plays, set up teammates and/or create for themselves. Pretty much all of the top teams have someone like that.

Respectfully agree to disagree on this... Running your best offense is running your best offense. Does Denver revert to a different offense at crunch time? Nope.

Denver is an outlier led by a two-time MVP...and KP is not the Joker.

Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday, Chris Paul, Harden, Steph Curry, Lilliard, Lowry, VanVleet, Smart, Trae Young and on and on have proven the value of having a PG/SG run your offense.

I'm not suggesting that Morris is as good as these players but we do know that Monte doesn't turn the ball over...and I believe he's capable of running an offense that can take advantage of the strengths of both Beal and KP. Morris is averaging almost 6 assists a game and, imo, could easily average 8 if give the keys to the offense.

(This is not to say that I wouldn't want the offense to also run through KP at times.)
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1035 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 1, 2022 8:50 pm

DCZards wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
DCZards wrote:Running the offense through KP is something that I like as well. But there comes a point in every game (usually at crunch time) where the best offense is having a PG (or SG) who can manage the clock, call plays, set up teammates and/or create for themselves. Pretty much all of the top teams have someone like that.

Respectfully agree to disagree on this... Running your best offense is running your best offense. Does Denver revert to a different offense at crunch time? Nope.

Denver is an outlier led by a two-time MVP...and KP is not the Joker.

Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday, Chris Paul, Harden, Steph Curry, Lilliard, Lowry, VanVleet, Smart, Trae Young and on and on have proven the value of having a PG/SG run your offense.

I'm not suggesting that Morris is as good as these players but we do know that Monte doesn't turn the ball over...and I believe he's capable of running an offense that can take advantage of the strengths of both Beal and KP. Morris is averaging almost 6 assists a game and, imo, could easily average 8 if give the keys to the offense.

(This is not to say that I wouldn't want the offense to also run through KP at times.)

KP isn't Joker and Morris isn't Chris Paul - there we agree.

I don't agree with your premise on this team. From what I have seen watching the games, we are better when we run a high post offense through Porzingis. He can then set-up Beal, Kuz and Morris along with back cuts from other players.

Another way to say it, Porzingis causes many more mismatches that Morris. It is when we get away from that offense that we struggle. Let's agree to disagree and move on... My guess is we will trend toward what you suggest and become even less creative on the offensive side of the ball earning us more ping pong balls.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1036 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 2, 2022 8:12 pm

dckingsfan wrote:I think the best offense that the Wizards have is running the offense through Porzingis on the high post. I thought Wes had figured this out but...

Exactly. They did it with a lot of success last year after acquiring Porzingis.

Run some high pick-and-rolls with Porzingis early in the shot clock to force a switch. Once a smaller guy switches onto Porzingis, get him the ball in the high post and start running off-ball actions around him. Porzingis will find the cutter or post up the smaller defender in the mid-post.

Basically, do what Denver did with Jokic. You would think Wes Jr. of all people would get it.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1037 » by dckingsfan » Wed Nov 2, 2022 8:38 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I think the best offense that the Wizards have is running the offense through Porzingis on the high post. I thought Wes had figured this out but...

Exactly. They did it with a lot of success last year after acquiring Porzingis.

Run some high pick-and-rolls with Porzingis early in the shot clock to force a switch. Once a smaller guy switches onto Porzingis, get him the ball in the high post and start running off-ball actions around him. Porzingis will find the cutter or post up the smaller defender in the mid-post.

Basically, do what Denver did with Jokic. You would think Wes Jr. of all people would get it.

It is kind of like he has lost his way as a coach when Beal came back and regressed. I am not putting this on Beal - directly on Wes' shoulders for not executing the best offense for the team.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1038 » by tleikheen » Wed Nov 2, 2022 8:48 pm

Since the beginning of the season we thought they would run the offense through Porzingis at the top but its been disappointing to see that Morris ,Beal and Wright were not good at working high post offense with KP. Remember Sato was 6'7" and was very good at working with KP. KP avg more pts with less minutes w/Sato.He's getting 3 more mpg now while getting less with Morris.
Also it was blasted ad nauseum about Beal playing better with a non scoring PG than a scoring guard .Well now Beal's average as "dropped" 3 more points. A Morris led offense is now ranked 25th in the NBA .
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1039 » by DCZards » Wed Nov 2, 2022 9:02 pm

tleikheen wrote:Since the beginning of the season we thought they would run the offense through Porzingis at the top but its been disappointing to see that Morris ,Beal and Wright were not good at working high post offense with KP. Remember Sato was 6'7" and was very good at working with KP. KP avg more pts with less minutes w/Sato.He's getting 3 more mpg now while getting less with Morris.
Also it was blasted ad nauseum about Beal playing better with a non scoring PG than a scoring guard .Well now Beal's average as "dropped" 3 more points. A Morris led offense is now ranked 25th in the NBA .

Yes, Beal is averaging fewer points but he’s taking 4 less shots per game and shooting a higher percentage. He’s also averaging 6 assists a game. Those are all good things.

This is not a Morris led offense, IMO.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1040 » by Kanyewest » Fri Nov 4, 2022 5:48 am

DCZards wrote:
tleikheen wrote:Since the beginning of the season we thought they would run the offense through Porzingis at the top but its been disappointing to see that Morris ,Beal and Wright were not good at working high post offense with KP. Remember Sato was 6'7" and was very good at working with KP. KP avg more pts with less minutes w/Sato.He's getting 3 more mpg now while getting less with Morris.
Also it was blasted ad nauseum about Beal playing better with a non scoring PG than a scoring guard .Well now Beal's average as "dropped" 3 more points. A Morris led offense is now ranked 25th in the NBA .

Yes, Beal is averaging fewer points but he’s taking 4 less shots per game and shooting a higher percentage. He’s also averaging 6 assists a game. Those are all good things.

This is not a Morris led offense, IMO.

Yeah Beal's ts percentage is now at 62 % which would be the highest in his career.

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