Offseason Plan

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If you hate boogie cousins just look at his rebound rate and his 3 point shooting and realize that he is probably better than everIf you hate boogie cousins just look at his rebound rate and his 3 point shooting and realize that he is probably better than ever Ma'am this translator is goofy

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[closg00]

ESPN Power Ranking has your Wizards ranked at

Spoiler:

22

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/34323187/nba-power-rankings-where-nets-lakers-all-30-teams-stand-ahead-2022-23-season

[Ruzious]

...certainly right that drafting Morant accelerated their rebuild enormously. I wouldn't say the same about JJJ.

I would. JJJ is inconsistent offensively and rebounding, but he's the key to their defense. Notice Memphis is better athletically at every position than the wiz. That starts with the ability to move JJJ around between PF and center.

I was pretty sure you'd chime in on this, Ruzious -- I know you have a very high opinion of the guy.

But Jackson is not "inconsistent" offensively, Ruz. He's bad offensively. & he's not "inconsistent" as a rebounder. He's a bad rebounder.

A PF/Center who posts a .535 TS% while being 3d on his team in FGAs per 40 minutes, & is also both a sub-par offensive rebounder & turns the ball over more than average -- while registering just over half as many assists as average -- has a whole lot to make up for with his defense.

Committing 35% more fouls than average for a PF/Center, while collecting 84% as many defensive rebounds as an average PF/C, doesn't strike me as a good start on that.

It's certainly true that he blocks a lot of shots.

If there is other interesting data that casts a different light on JJJ's play, I'd be interested to see it & & open to changing my view.

Well, I'm a little late, but he's got a 24.4.PER and a .616 TS% in addition to his 4.3 blocks and 1.4 steals per 36. At 23 years old, he's exactly the kind of player we should have anticipated would be really good and tried to acquire. His fouling rate has gone down - just as we should have expected it to. And he's still getting better. He's just gotta stay healthy. DPOY.

[payitforward]

Jackson has played in 9 games, & so far he's playing pretty well.

His .616 TS% is nothing special for someone playing his position (Gafford's is .719) -- though he's doing it on higher usage than Gaff.

Just turned 23 & in the 5th year of his nba career.

[Ruzious]

Jackson has played in 9 games, & so far he's playing pretty well.

His .616 TS% is nothing special for someone playing his position (Gafford's is .719) -- though he's doing it on higher usage than Gaff.

Just turned 23 & in the 5th year of his nba career.

Except he plays forward much more than Center, and his stats are special. And it's a good thing that he just turned 23 and is his 5th nba season.

[leswizards]

Not sure where to post this, so I will post it here:

You see a lot of posters commenting that the wizards need to blow it up and tank. Tanking is an outdated way to build a team. Prior to 2000, almost every nba championship team became a champion because they were successful with a very high draft pick. Since, 2000 most nba champions became champions because they landed a great free agent, made a spectacular trade, or drafted extremely well later in the first round.

[Ruzious]

Not sure where to post this, so I will post it here:

You see a lot of posters commenting that the wizards need to blow it up and tank. Tanking is an outdated way to build a team. Prior to 2000, almost every nba championship team became a champion because they were successful with a very high draft pick. Since, 2000 most nba champions became champions because they landed a great free agent, made a spectacular trade, or drafted extremely well later in the first round.

The Buck (my 2nd favorite team) fit that. The only reason they became a great team is because they picked Giannis 15th, and 15th is where several great players have gone. If they hadn't made that one decision, they'd still be floundering like the Wizards. And making that pick was pure luck. If they had picked earlier, they might not have picked him - they were lucky to NOT have an earlier pick. It's funny how things worked out. But still, I would much rather have the #1 pick. After that... yeah, I'm not sure how much it matters unless you're looking at trade value. But the chance to get the kid from France... just the chance - boy, I'd be awfully tempted to tank for that. He's the best prospect I've ever seen.

[nate33]

Not sure where to post this, so I will post it here:

You see a lot of posters commenting that the wizards need to blow it up and tank. Tanking is an outdated way to build a team. Prior to 2000, almost every nba championship team became a champion because they were successful with a very high draft pick. Since, 2000 most nba champions became champions because they landed a great free agent, made a spectacular trade, or drafted extremely well later in the first round.

I don't think this is true at all, with the exception of Lebron James. And even in James' case, the only reason he joined any of his championship teams was because the team already had great assets generated from recent tanking for high draft picks. Lebron then made management trade those assets for win now talent, but those trades wouldn't have been possible if not for tanking.

2022 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2021 - Milwaukee - Built with perhaps the 2nd best non lotto pick of all time. Not exactly a repeatable template for success.
2020 - Lakers - Traded all their tanking assets (Ingram, Ball) for AD
2019 - Toronto - Built through draft, but admittedly not with high lotto picks.
2018 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2017 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2016 - Cleveland - Traded their tanking asset (Wiggins) for Love. The key move that convinced Lebron to come.
2015 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry, Klay and Barnes)
2014 - San Antonio - Tanked for Duncan. Got Kawhi in the lottery.
2013 - Miami - Wade was acquired by tanking for the draft. Lebron and Bosh don't come if Wade isn't there.
2012 - Miami - Wade was acquired by tanking for the draft. Lebron and Bosh don't come if Wade isn't there.
2011 - Dallas - Dirk acquired by tanking for the draft.

By my count, only Milwaukee and Toronto were built without tanking. Perhaps one can argue that Golden State didn't tank for a top 5 pick, but they spent 4 consecutive years in the middle of the lottery (#7 for Stef, #6 for Udoh, #11 for Klay, #7 for Barnes). They also had one of the greatest all time draft picks in Draymond at #32.

[FAH1223]

Not sure where to post this, so I will post it here:

You see a lot of posters commenting that the wizards need to blow it up and tank. Tanking is an outdated way to build a team. Prior to 2000, almost every nba championship team became a champion because they were successful with a very high draft pick. Since, 2000 most nba champions became champions because they landed a great free agent, made a spectacular trade, or drafted extremely well later in the first round.

I don't think this is true at all, with the exception of Lebron James. And even in James' case, the only reason he joined any of his championship teams was because the team already had great assets generated from recent tanking for high draft picks. Lebron then made management trade those assets for win now talent, but those trades wouldn't have been possible if not for tanking.

2022 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2021 - Milwaukee - Built with perhaps the 2nd best non lotto pick of all time. Not exactly a repeatable template for success.
2020 - Lakers - Traded all their tanking assets (Ingram, Ball) for AD
2019 - Toronto - Built through draft, but admittedly not with high lotto picks.
2018 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2017 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2016 - Cleveland - Traded their tanking asset (Wiggins) for Love. The key move that convinced Lebron to come.
2015 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry, Klay and Barnes)
2014 - San Antonio - Tanked for Duncan. Got Kawhi in the lottery.
2013 - Miami - Wade was acquired by tanking for the draft. Lebron and Bosh don't come if Wade isn't there.
2012 - Miami - Wade was acquired by tanking for the draft. Lebron and Bosh don't come if Wade isn't there.
2011 - Dallas - Dirk acquired by tanking for the draft.

By my count, only Milwaukee and Toronto were built without tanking. Perhaps one can argue that Golden State didn't tank for a top 5 pick, but they spent 4 consecutive years in the middle of the lottery (#7 for Stef, #6 for Udoh, #11 for Klay, #7 for Barnes). They also had one of the greatest all time draft picks in Draymond at #32.

San Antonio tanked in 1996-1997 and never did it again until this season (2022-2023). Kawhi was actually selected at 15 by Indiana and traded for George Hill in 2011 so that was just outside of the lottery. Spurs had won 60 games in 2010-2011 before getting eliminated by Memphis in an upset in Round 1.

The Wizards/Bullets just have terrible luck in the lottery. 2019 they moved down from 6 to 9 due to the new odds.

2009 was terrible as they moved down.

2010 and 2013 are outliers. And they'd have been a conference contender if Ernie didn't botch two 1st round picks in 2011.

[nate33]

Not sure where to post this, so I will post it here:

You see a lot of posters commenting that the wizards need to blow it up and tank. Tanking is an outdated way to build a team. Prior to 2000, almost every nba championship team became a champion because they were successful with a very high draft pick. Since, 2000 most nba champions became champions because they landed a great free agent, made a spectacular trade, or drafted extremely well later in the first round.

I don't think this is true at all, with the exception of Lebron James. And even in James' case, the only reason he joined any of his championship teams was because the team already had great assets generated from recent tanking for high draft picks. Lebron then made management trade those assets for win now talent, but those trades wouldn't have been possible if not for tanking.

2022 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2021 - Milwaukee - Built with perhaps the 2nd best non lotto pick of all time. Not exactly a repeatable template for success.
2020 - Lakers - Traded all their tanking assets (Ingram, Ball) for AD
2019 - Toronto - Built through draft, but admittedly not with high lotto picks.
2018 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2017 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry and Klay)
2016 - Cleveland - Traded their tanking asset (Wiggins) for Love. The key move that convinced Lebron to come.
2015 - Golden State - Built through the draft, though they were later lottery picks (Curry, Klay and Barnes)
2014 - San Antonio - Tanked for Duncan. Got Kawhi in the lottery.
2013 - Miami - Wade was acquired by tanking for the draft. Lebron and Bosh don't come if Wade isn't there.
2012 - Miami - Wade was acquired by tanking for the draft. Lebron and Bosh don't come if Wade isn't there.
2011 - Dallas - Dirk acquired by tanking for the draft.

By my count, only Milwaukee and Toronto were built without tanking. Perhaps one can argue that Golden State didn't tank for a top 5 pick, but they spent 4 consecutive years in the middle of the lottery (#7 for Stef, #6 for Udoh, #11 for Klay, #7 for Barnes). They also had one of the greatest all time draft picks in Draymond at #32.

San Antonio tanked in 1996-1997 and never did it again until this season (2022-2023). Kawhi was actually selected at 15 by Indiana and traded for George Hill in 2011 so that was just outside of the lottery. Spurs had won 60 games in 2010-2011 before getting eliminated by Memphis in an upset in Round 1.

My bad about Kawhi. For some reason, I thought he was drafted at 11. But you're right, it wasn't San Antonio's pick. But nevertheless, it was tanking that put San Antonio on the map. They would have had none of the success without Duncan. And it was impossible for them to tank after acquiring Duncan.

[payitforward]

Not sure where to post this, so I will post it here:

You see a lot of posters commenting that the wizards need to blow it up and tank. Tanking is an outdated way to build a team. Prior to 2000, almost every nba championship team became a champion because they were successful with a very high draft pick. Since, 2000 most nba champions became champions because they landed a great free agent, made a spectacular trade, or drafted extremely well later in the first round.

Interesting for sure, but I'm not sure how strong a point you're making. Or, rather, I'd say the point is willingness to rebuild when you need to. I.e. rather than tanking -- which implies that you play worse than you're capable of playing.

It is absolutely the case that you don't need a "very high draft pick" to contend -- & anyway there aren't a lot single picks who'll take you there on their own.

For sure you have to draft well, wherever your picks are in both R1 & R2.

But, I'd like to see you flesh out your point a bit -- give us some narratives of those "since 2000" stories. Obviously, if Bosh & Lebron decide they're coming to your team (which has already drafted Wade), well yeah... you have a real shot to win!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Admiral David Robinson missed games injured the year Tim Duncan was drafted. Was that part of their tank?

I just remember DRob didn’t play that season. Thus their record.

[DCZards]

If I understand leswizards correctly, he’s arguing that the last several NBA champions got there by either signing a great free agent, trading for a top player or drafting extremely well later in the first round. And not through tanking in most instances. I think leswizards is mostly right.

2022 – Did GS really tank to rebuild or were they simply a mediocre team? They were 10th in the West the year before they drafted Curry, who wasn’t even a top 5 pick.

2021 -- Milwaukee won after drafting an absolutely great player in the middle of the first round and trading for (not drafting) two very good players (Middleton and Holiday).

2019 -- Does Toronto win without trading for a top ten NBA player -- Kawhi? I doubt it. The Raptors won 59 games the year before they won the championship so they certainly didn’t tank.

2016 –Lebron had already announced that he was coming back to Cleveland before they traded for Love. I’m sure the Wiggins for Love trade was made at Lebron’s urging. But signing Lebron as a FA is how Cleveland built a championship…not via the draft.

2014 -- SA had a top ten player in David Robinson when it drafted Duncan. It wasn’t like they were starting from the bottom talentwise. And the Spurs only had one bad year before drafting Duncan--1996-97 when they won just 20 games. The season before that the Spurs won 59 games.

2012 – Yes, Miami drafted Wade after winning only 25 games in the 2002-03 season. But the three years before that they won, respectively, 52, 50 & 36 games. Miami had all-star level players, Alonzo Mourning and Eddie Jones, on its roster when it drafted Wade. The year before drafting Wade, Mourning missed the entire season (the season Miami won just 36 games) due to illness. That wasn't a tank.

2011 – Dallas won the championship with Dirk but it was only after trading (or maybe it was free agency) for another HOF player -- Jason Kidd.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In 2011, former Wizards DeShawn Stevenson and Brendan Haywood helped Dallas win it all. Shawn Marion also contributed. Caron Butler was out injured. Dallas improved defensively through trades as well as w J Kidd.

[leswizards]

You all don’t pay me enough to write a detailed analysis of every championship team past the past few decades and explain why my statement holds or doesn’t hold. So, I am going to make a general statement that is fairly accurate and illustrates the point that I am trying to make.

Prior to the 1999-2000 season, the owner of almost every nba championship team could make the following statement:

“We drafted our best player in one of the top 4 spots in the draft, and he has played for no other team in the nba, and he has led us to a championship”

The only owner who could make that statement after the 1999-2000 season is the owner of the spurs. He could make it after the 2002-2003 season, after the 2004-2005 season, and again after the 2006-2007 season, but I don’t think he could make it after the 2013-14 season, as I think kawhi Leonard was the best player.

[9 and 20]

That Toronto championship sticks out and looks weird. Like the one Pistons championships from around 20 years ago with Billups and all the former DC guys - Rip Hamilton, Ben and Rasheed Wallace.

From all the stuff above, looks mostly like you have to get lucky in a LeDecision scenario or draft somebody like Steph Curry or Giannis. Before LeDecision, there was also the Shaq-cision to go to LA.

OKC came close to tanking their way to a championship, and so did Cleveland the first time they made it to the finals with LeBron. Also Orlando when they had the first overall with Shaq, then also got another first overall that they traded for Penny.

I get not being one the handful of teams to luck out. Curse of Les Boulez. Doesn't excuse the Wiz not being able to win 50 games a single time in 40 years.

[nate33]

You all don’t pay me enough to write a detailed analysis of every championship team past the past few decades and explain why my statement holds or doesn’t hold. So, I am going to make a general statement that is fairly accurate and illustrates the point that I am trying to make.

Prior to the 1999-2000 season, the owner of almost every nba championship team could make the following statement:

“We drafted our best player in one of the top 4 spots in the draft, and he has played for no other team in the nba, and he has led us to a championship”

The only owner who could make that statement after the 1999-2000 season is the owner of the spurs. He could make it after the 2002-2003 season, after the 2004-2005 season, and again after the 2006-2007 season, but I don’t think he could make it after the 2013-14 season, as I think kawhi Leonard was the best player.

So what? Tanking for a championship doesn't necessarily mean that you have to find and keep a top 4 pick. The Lakers would not have won a championship in 2020 if they didn't tank for Ingram and Ball and then trade them for Davis. The 2016 Cavs would not have convinced Lebron to come back if they didn't first tank to get Kyrie and Wiggins and then trade Wiggins for Love. The Miami Heat would not have formed the Big Three if they didn't first draft Wade and use him to convince Lebron and Bosh to join.

And I also don't see why you should draw the line at "top 4 spots". Why not "top 7 spots?" If you count the top 7, then you count Curry, Wade and Dirk (Dallas traded the #6 pick to get him).

[leswizards]

So what? Tanking for a championship doesn't necessarily mean that you have to find and keep a top 4 pick. The Lakers would not have won a championship in 2020 if they didn't tank for Ingram and Ball and then trade them for Davis. The 2016 Cavs would not have convinced Lebron to come back if they didn't first tank to get Kyrie and Wiggins and then trade Wiggins for Love. The Miami Heat would not have formed the Big Three if they didn't first draft Wade and use him to convince Lebron and Bosh to join.

And I also don't see why you should draw the line at "top 4 spots". Why not "top 7 spots?" If you count the top 7, then you count Curry, Wade and Dirk (Dallas traded the #6 pick to get him).

I am not sure what your dog in this discussion is. Maybe you really want the Wizards to blow it up and tank.

First, a minor quibble: yes the mavericks had the sixth pick, but dirk was the 9th pick.

Second, to answer your question as to why I cut it off at the fourth pick, was to illustrate how different things are since the 2000 season.

Both of those are minor points, and I hope we don’t get caught up on them. Let me summarize what I take your point, many nba champions had high draft picks, that enabled them to leverage free agent acquisitions and trades that enabled them to become champions. I completely agree with that. However, you don’t need to blow a team up and tank to be able to build a team where elite free agents want to come play, and you don’t need to tank to be able to make trades for elite players that improve your team. I would hope you would agree with that.

[doclinkin]

However, you don’t need to blow a team up and tank to be able to build a team where elite free agents want to come play, and you don’t need to tank to be able to make trades for elite players that improve your team.

Depends who 'you' is.

Show me the elite free agents who have signed with the Wizards. Show me the all-stars we have had play for us that were not drafted by us. Show me the assets we currently have to trade for elite players.

For this team we are closer to bottoming out to land a generational prospect than we are to building a team dynasty and becoming a destination franchise for those elite free agents. We just had to pay a quarter billion dollars to one of our own free agents to convince him to stay with us.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Paul Pierce at 118 years old did sign with the Wizards. That’s the year that Washington swept Toronto. Wa he elite? IIRC Trevor Aliza was playing pretty close to elite.

Too bad Wall and Beal were petulant youngsters at that time.