Alex Sarr

[nate33]

Finally, I think you guys are discounting the extent to which he will fill out as he matures. He has much broader shoulders than Mobley and he has already put on a substantial amount of muscle. That also suggests that he understands that center is the position where he is a difference-maker.

Compare 19-year-old Sarr's numbers to 19-year-old Tyson Chandler. Their per minute rebounding is the same (though Chandler was a bit better on a per possession basis). Chandler went on to average roughly 12.5 rebounds per 36 during his prime.



Tall 19-year-olds tend to fill out.

[dckingsfan]

Finally, I think you guys are discounting the extent to which he will fill out as he matures. He has much broader shoulders than Mobley and he has already put on a substantial amount of muscle. That also suggests that he understands that center is the position where he is a difference-maker.

Compare 19-year-old Sarr's numbers to 19-year-old Tyson Chandler. Their per minute rebounding is the same (though Chandler was a bit better on a per possession basis). Chandler went on to average roughly 12.5 rebounds per 36 during his prime.



Tall 19-year-olds tend to fill out.

I like it... it would be a nice projection. One thing, Chandler loved to bang early on and was a better defensive rebounder even as a 19 year old.

But I get your point, he doesn't have to be as good a rebounder as Chandler - he just needs to follow the trajectory.

BTW, did you know that Chandler played a lot of PF his first 4 years? Antonio Davis locked down the C position for one year anyway (pretty sure my memory is right on this one).

[Despy]

Jokic averaged 7 rpg his rookie year I'm not hugely scared of 6.5

[doclinkin]

Compare 19-year-old Sarr's numbers to 19-year-old Tyson Chandler. Their per minute rebounding is the same (though Chandler was a bit better on a per possession basis). Chandler went on to average roughly 12.5 rebounds per 36 during his prime.



Tall 19-year-olds tend to fill out.

I like it... it would be a nice projection. One thing, Chandler loved to bang early on and was a better defensive rebounder even as a 19 year old.

But I get your point, he doesn't have to be as good a rebounder as Chandler - he just needs to follow the trajectory.

BTW, did you know that Chandler played a lot of PF his first 4 years? Antonio Davis locked down the C position for one year anyway (pretty sure my memory is right on this one).

Dcking makes a really good point: as a rookie Chandler was splitting rebounds with Brad Miller, Charles Oakley, Ron Artest and the other 19 year old they drafted that year Eddy Curry. I don’t know that his rebounding improved so much as he had less competition on the boards.

Sarr had nobody bigger longer and quicker than him if rebounding were a focus. I agree that he is going to fill out and get stronger and not be bounced away from the action. He’ll get more accidental boards. But again he’s being out boarded by 6’4” Bub Carrington. In Euro play you still see him standing around with dinosaur paws watching other people get after it. I did see him box out a couple possessions though which is definitely new. So. Maybe. I’ll be happy when he proves me wrong and first to say I’m wrong.

[nate33]

Dcking makes a really good point: as a rookie Chandler was splitting rebounds with Brad Miller, Charles Oakley, Ron Artest and the other 19 year old they drafted that year Eddy Curry. I don’t know that his rebounding improved so much as he had less competition on the boards.

It's also worth noting that they were pretty much even in defensive rebounding. The difference was exclusively on offensive rebounding, and that's because Sarr spaces the floor behind the 3-point line on offense more often than not.

Ultimately, I think we will know a lot more after this season is complete. Sarr being a bad rebounder at age 19 doesn't concern me much. But if he is still an anemic rebounder at age 20, I'll start to worry.

[nate33]

But again he’s being out boarded by 6’4” Bub Carrington.

Why do you keep saying this?

Sarr averaged 8.6 boards per 36. Carrington averaged 5.0 boards per 36.

[dckingsfan]

Dcking makes a really good point: as a rookie Chandler was splitting rebounds with Brad Miller, Charles Oakley, Ron Artest and the other 19 year old they drafted that year Eddy Curry. I don’t know that his rebounding improved so much as he had less competition on the boards.

It's also worth noting that they were pretty much even in defensive rebounding. The difference was exclusively on offensive rebounding, and that's because Sarr spaces the floor behind the 3-point line on offense more often than not.

Ultimately, I think we will know a lot more after this season is complete. Sarr being a bad rebounder at age 19 doesn't concern me much. But if he is still an anemic rebounder at age 20, I'll start to worry.

Yep, or maybe even in two seasons, then we should start to worry.

I think you said this earlier - it is just too early to see what he is going to become as a player. And if Sarr was sharing the court with Brad Miller, Charles Oakley or Ron Artest - would anyone notice the defensive rebounding percentages?

[dckingsfan]

Jokic averaged 7 rpg his rookie year I'm not hugely scared of 6.5

Wait, what?!? Jokic's DRB% was 24.7% as a 20 year old rookie. Sarr's is 17.9%. One was already rebounding like a C the other like a PF with little interference from his teammates.

Still, way too early to see what he will become. But that isn't such a good comparison (or at least not an optimistic one).

[payitforward]

A fair bit of our commentary on Alex reduces to this: "If he improves, he'll be better."
This is true.

...I think what we are discussing is the *ways* we think he’s likely to get better. ...

Sure.
& we are all aligned in hoping that's how it works out!

As I've written repeatedly, Alex was for sure my choice at 2. Just as he was yours & pretty much everyone else's here. Still would be.

And as soon as he gets better in all (or some) of those *ways* he'll be better.

[doclinkin]

A fair bit of our commentary on Alex reduces to this: "If he improves, he'll be better."
This is true.

...I think what we are discussing is the *ways* we think he’s likely to get better. ...

Sure.
& we are all aligned in hoping that's how it works out!

As I've written repeatedly, Alex was for sure my choice at 2. Just as he was yours & pretty much everyone else's here. Still would be.

Repeating: He was not mine. But I’m coming around on him. For who he tries to be, more than who he might be if he were significantly different.

[doclinkin]

But again he’s being out boarded by 6’4” Bub Carrington.

Why do you keep saying this?

Sarr averaged 8.6 boards per 36. Carrington averaged 5.0 boards per 36.

Hyperbole to make a point. But still often accurate in this way:

Not that Bub averaged more boards than Sarr, but checking box scores I’m up to at least 10 games this year where Bub pulled down more rebounds than Sarr.

It’s not the role of the shortest guy on court to snatch the board. But due to want-to and skill Bub did post games where he tallied better numbers than Sarr. If your 6’4” guy can out rebound all players on both teams a few times this year, then the excuse for Sarr can’t be that he’s too small. It’s just not a focus for him.

Maybe the focus will change as he gets bigger. Until now (nba and Australia) the thing he’s been working on was his face-up game from the perimeter and in. Not boxing out, pursuing rebounds outside his space. Forming a wide base. Leverage. Swimming past your guy. Footwork. Tapping boards to teammates if he can’t corral it. All the tricks you learn if you want to be better at rebounding.

Til now he’s been working on shooting jumpers. Driving. His handle. Guarding the perimeter. Blocks on recovery and from the weak side, not as a stand up deterrent. More say Tayshaun Prince than Ben Wallace. But I’m saying I’m okay with that. If he gets good at it. Though yeah. I like seeing the flashes of more forceful play.

[DCZards]

Bub is one of the top rebounding PGs in the NBA. The fact that he excels at it shouldn't be used to knock Sarr.

[doclinkin]

Bub is one of the top rebounding PGs in the NBA. The fact that he excels at it shouldn't be used to knock Sarr.

It’s not. It’s saying currently Sarr rebounds like a decent small forward. So If we are going to be a solid defensive team we will need someone to pick up the slack. I mean other than Bub. Lol.

Maybe that’s Sarr eventually. But I’d rather bank on it from a player who starts out good at it. Give me ‘one of the top rebounding’ power forwards, or top rebounding centers, to play next to Sarr. Look for that guy in the draft. Instead of hoping Sarr becomes elite at front court work.

If Alex also gets good, then gravy. If not, it’s cool. He does other things that nobody else can. I’m ok with him developing those other things first.

[doclinkin]

I will say Sarrs unusual skill set lets you look for a type of player that is often overlooked in the draft. Players like Oscar Tshiebwe. The underheight prodigious boardsmen types who fail at the next level because they have a centers game in a forwards body. I’d be curious to see if that worked. Wouldn’t mind testing it out in a tanking year.

But maybe we just need to be encouraging Bilal, George, Cam, Jamir and all to crash the boards and hit the weight room. Vukcevic. Expect everybody to get bigger.

Except AJJ. He can crash for rebounds but I do t think hes ever adding size. Kid is a whippet. A greyhound. Just how he’s built.

[payitforward]

I will say Sarrs unusual skill set lets you look for a type of player that is often overlooked in the draft. Players like Oscar Tshiebwe. The underheight prodigious boardsmen types who fail at the next level because they have a centers game in a forwards body. ....

Tshiebwe only played 250 minutes this year, but they were great! So far so good!

[nate33]

It’s not. It’s saying currently Sarr rebounds like a decent small forward.

Even this is hyperbole.

There are only 6 starting non-centers in the league who average more rebounds per minute than Sarr:

Giannis*
Mobley*
Giddey
Hart
Amen
Avdija

And Giannis and Mobley play half their minutes at center.

Sarr rebounds like a good power forward. It's definitely not good enough for a center, but let's not overstate it.

He already rebounds more than Turner and Horford. If he gets that 8.6 number up to about 10.0, he will be in the Bam/Wendell Carter/Nic Claxton range. I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually gets up to 11.0 and gets to the Mobley/Sengun/Vucevic range. He'll never be a glass cleaner like Adams, JV or Zubac, who grab 13-15 boards a night.

[nate33]

I went through the early seasons of various other comps to Sarr to see how they improved their rebounding as they filled out. I tried to find guys who, like Sarr, entered the league young, while having a wiry, switchable body type rather than behemoths like Clingan and Zubac. Here is the list. The number in parentheses is their age during their first season. The first number after that is their rebounds per 36 in their first season. The next number is rebounds per 36 in their second season.

Jarrett Allen (19): 9.7 to 11.5
Jalen Duran(19): 12.8 to 14.4
Wendell Carter(19) 10.0 to 11.6
Isaiah Stewart(19): 11.2 to 12.2
Myles Turner(19): 8.7 to 8.3

Karl Anthony Towns(20): 11.8 to 12.0
Evan Mobley(20): 8.8 to 9.4
Bam Adebayo(20): 10.0 to 11.2
Nic Claxton(20): 8.5 to 10.1

All the 19-year-olds except Turner made a pretty massive improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, generally improving by about 1.5 rebounds per 36. The 20-year-olds improved, but not as much.

Sarr averaged 8.6 rebounds per 36 in his first season. Hopefully, he'll get that north of 10.0 in Year 2.

[doclinkin]

Ok I stand corrected. It’s not Alex’ fault we’re a terrible rebounding team. Nor Bub. Nor Champagnie.

It’s either everyone else. Or the fact that we don’t really have an actual center, and need one. Seems to me easy to solve one of those problems. In the draft or next year. Shrug.

I just want us to be *good* at rebounding. Not just good enough to not be bad.

[doclinkin]

Btw this is why I like this board. I get to be loud wrong. Then corrected with facts. Then I get smarter in my next argument with somebody else.

[nate33]

Ok I stand corrected. It’s not Alex’ fault we’re a terrible rebounding team. Nor Bub. Nor Champagnie.

It’s either everyone else. Or the fact that we don’t really have an actual center, and need one. Seems to me easy to solve one of those problems. In the draft or next year. Shrug.

No. It's Sarr's fault. He is a skinny, weak guy who is outmatched at center right now. I'm just saying that should change as he fills out.

I maintain that if you move Sarr to forward, he becomes "just a guy". He'll basically be Herbert Jones and we already have forwards who project to fill that role (only with more dynamic offense) in Kyshawn and Bilal.

Sarr is only a difference-maker at center. With him at center, we can institute a switch-everything defense and a 5-out offense. And that's the type of lineup that seems to work best these days, see Boston, Indiana and OKC.