Jan Vesely

[Severn Hoos]

Klay Thompson might turn out to be a better pro than V and B, but another shooter is not what the Wizards needed.

Wait, the Wizards have a shooter on the roster?

[Johnlac1]

I think they knoew he was a project. When you look at it, it looks like they decided that in a weak draft why not take a shot on upside. I also think that Ernie probably overvalued talent on the roster like Young & Crawford and didn't think another shooter who would need touches was necessary. It also makes you wonder if they were planning as if they expected the lockout to last the whole year which would have given Jan another season overseas....

I'm still amused by some Wizard's fans who gave up on Vesely after one month. Biyombo seems to have more Bobcat fans who stick with him. I remember reading Rocket's threads where many of their fans thought Parsons was a horrible player. After only about one month into the season. I would ask all fans to give rookies a little time and realize that some players don't produce immediately and some, like Gortat, only after two-three-four years. I think both Vesely and Biyombo have the potential to turn into decent pros. Time will tell.

[tontoz]

I think they knoew he was a project. When you look at it, it looks like they decided that in a weak draft why not take a shot on upside. I also think that Ernie probably overvalued talent on the roster like Young & Crawford and didn't think another shooter who would need touches was necessary. It also makes you wonder if they were planning as if they expected the lockout to last the whole year which would have given Jan another season overseas....

I'm still amused by some Wizard's fans who gave up on Vesely after one month. Biyombo seems to have more Bobcat fans who stick with him. I remember reading Rocket's threads where many of their fans thought Parsons was a horrible player. After only about one month into the season. I would ask all fans to give rookies a little time and realize that some players don't produce immediately and some, like Gortat, only after two-three-four years. I think both Vesely and Biyombo have the potential to turn into decent pros. Time will tell.

Gortat had a PER of 20 as a rookie. Vesely's is currently 9.76.

Vesely sucks. He doesn't suck as badly as he did earlier in the year but he still sucks. He is soft, can't shoot and is a very weak rebounder. That is a bad combination for a big man.

[Johnlac1]

I think they knoew he was a project. When you look at it, it looks like they decided that in a weak draft why not take a shot on upside. I also think that Ernie probably overvalued talent on the roster like Young & Crawford and didn't think another shooter who would need touches was necessary. It also makes you wonder if they were planning as if they expected the lockout to last the whole year which would have given Jan another season overseas....

I'm still amused by some Wizard's fans who gave up on Vesely after one month. Biyombo seems to have more Bobcat fans who stick with him. I remember reading Rocket's threads where many of their fans thought Parsons was a horrible player. After only about one month into the season. I would ask all fans to give rookies a little time and realize that some players don't produce immediately and some, like Gortat, only after two-three-four years. I think both Vesely and Biyombo have the potential to turn into decent pros. Time will tell.

Gortat had a PER of 20 as a rookie. Vesely's is currently 9.76.

Vesely sucks. He doesn't suck as badly as he did earlier in the year but he still sucks. He is soft, can't shoot and is a very weak rebounder. That is a bad combination for a big man.

Gortat averaged about three pts. a game for his first three seasons. I'm sure many fans of Orlando were glad to see him go. You have to give some rookies time. If he doesn't do any development over the off season, then think about junking him.

[Raptor_Claw]

NBA teams tries to draft best possible players all the time. If you actually believe what you just said, you have terrible basketball perception. There is one thing called talent evaluation. just because some young Euros are less successful in Europe, it does not mean they are bad NBA prospects. Sofo is one of the most dominant players in Europe, but if you have at least mediocre bb IQ, you can tell he would be a terrible NBA player, and thats just one example.
Same thing with college basketball. being most successful college player does not guarantees you first pick or anything like that. Their career outside NBA does not matter.

What I said is a fact. Anyone can go scroll through the recent European draft picks and can confirm that many of them were complete scrubs and nobodies in Europe. Anyone can also find a whole bunch of them that never even became good players in Europe after being drafted.

Also, you can look at numerous top European players, and guys that excel in national team competitions and see that they were never drafted. What I posted is an absolute fact and can be totally proven and documented by even a very casual and quick glance at recent NBA drafts.

If you argue against this, then you simply don't know anything about the majority of the players in Europe that are and are not being drafted.

[tontoz]

[Gortat averaged about three pts. a game for his first three seasons. I'm sure many fans of Orlando were glad to see him go. You have to give some rookies time. If he doesn't do any development over the off season, then think about junking him.

First of all Gortat only played 6 games as a rookie.

Gortat's 2nd year per 36 minute numbers were 11 points with 12.9 rebounds.

Vesely's per 36 minute numbers are 8.3 points with 7.3 rebounds.

Gortat also wasn't soft. He was physical from day 1.

Gortat >> Vesely

[Ed Wood]

Orlando fans were also most assuredly not happy to see Gortat go. There was actually a fair bit of wailing and gnashing of teeth because he'd had a stretch of very strong play while Dwight Howard was injured and they were quite upset that Pheonix was offering such a large contract that there was no way he was being retained.

And please understand that nobody here, including myself, is prepared to guarentee that Vesely is destined for eternal mediocrity. He does seem to work hard, physically there is a lot to recommend him, and perhaps things will work out. What is true, however, is that Vesely's track record prior to being drafted firmly established him as a player who was going to do more or less what he's done this year in the NBA, struggle offensively and offer pedestrian rebounding. His translated PER (per John Hollinger) was roughly 10 if I recall correctly and that's more or less where he is.

That's not to say that he may not in future become better, but the idea of drafting a very mediocre current player in hopes that he will improve enormously isn't a strategy that appeals to me. By contrast, for example, while Seraphin was certainly raw coming into the league, his bouquet of production and predictive forecasts was actually rosier, which basically speaks to why Vesely may have been drafted just a tad high.

[tontoz]

Orlando fans were also most assuredly not happy to see Gortat go. There was actually a fair bit of wailing and gnashing of teeth because he'd had a stretch of very strong play while Dwight Howard was injured and they were quite upset that Pheonix was offering such a large contract that there was no way he was being retained.

I thought Gortat was retained and ended up being traded in the JRich/Vince deal.


Edit: He was actually signed by Dallas and Orlando matched.

[hands11]

The ability for a player to improve isn't solely based on his age and experience. The most important factor is his willingness to work. A few weeks ago, I listened to an NBA Today podcast where they interviewed David Thorpe. Thorpe runs the Pro Training Center in Florida and he told the story of Udonis Haslem.

Haslem was a 300 pound center in college and didn't get drafted. He lost weight after college and ended up playing a year of pro ball overseas. Thorpe recognized that Haslem had an incredible work ethic and he believed he could turn Haslem into a good pro. He knew that the best way for Haslem to get minutes was to become an uber role player so he had Haslem work on his defense, his rebounding, and his 17-foot jumper.

Haslem was a .59% FT shooter his freshman year in college. He was a 69% shooter as a 21-year-old senior. As a 23-year-old rookie he shot 76% from the line. These days, he shoots 80%.

Tracking his FG% is a bit harder. According to Hoopdata, Haslem had brought his FG% from 16-23 feet up to 40.0% by 2007. (The data doesn't go back earlier than that.) Last year, Haslem hit 48% of his shots from 16-23 feet. So even between the ages of 26 and 30, he showed substantial improvement.

The point is, Vesely isn't a finished product. I was ready to give up hope on him earlier this year because he was so bad offensively. But then I saw how much muscle he has managed to add in the midst of the grueling compressed NBA schedule. That proves to me that the kid has a great work ethic. I can only assume that they preferred for him to play SF in the Euroleagues so they didn't ask him to bulk up. I think Vesely can put on more weight - enough weight so that he can match up with centers. If he can do that, he might well be worth his draft slot. If he can also develop a jumper like Haslem did, he'll definitely be worth his draft slot and may even be one of the steals of his draft class.

Exactly.

Going round and round about Vesely being a value at the 6th is kind pointless at this stage. That question isnt going to get answered until next year.

Only thing you can really do right now is project IF he has to potential to end up a good value there. I think those of us who think he does have that potential have clearly outline why he falls into the camp.

All we can do right now is judge his progress game to game and over the season. I like that Randy was yelling at him to take the open shot. I also like that he has taken and made a few more lately. I would rather have Randy yelling at a player to take more shots then trying to figure out how to stop player from taking bad shots. And that list have been long for years.

Its a quality problem compared to so much of what we have seen from players on this team over the last 10 years.

Again, all you have to do is compare Booker and KS from last year to this year. The kid hasn't even had 1 NBA camp yet and zero summer training. There has been very little practice time this season.

The kid was 4-6 last night with 10 pts and 5 boards.

His 5 game numbers.
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4165/jan-vesely

10 pts 6 boards on .629 shooting.

For a kid in a new county, no camp, at a new position (s), in his rookie year on a struggling team .. thats not so bad. The kid was a SF. They have him at PF and C now. He will get stronger and already had way more then most here would have thought. He will rebound better. He has the motor and drive to do it. He will learn to sho0t better. He doesn't have terrible form.

Why people keep glossing over the most basic facts isnt making sense to me.

[Higga]

The thing is, Vesley was drafted SIXTH OVERALL. We're not talking about some 2nd rounder or UDFA. He shouldn't need years of work just to be serviceable.

[leswizards]

Gortat had a PER of 20 as a rookie. Vesely's is currently 9.76.

Vesely sucks. He doesn't suck as badly as he did earlier in the year but he still sucks. He is soft, can't shoot and is a very weak rebounder. That is a bad combination for a big man.

Vesely sucked to start the season. My guess is that if you only look at his per over the last 26 games, it is somewhere between 12 and 15.

[tontoz]

Gortat had a PER of 20 as a rookie. Vesely's is currently 9.76.

Vesely sucks. He doesn't suck as badly as he did earlier in the year but he still sucks. He is soft, can't shoot and is a very weak rebounder. That is a bad combination for a big man.

Vesely sucked to start the season. My guess is that if you only look at his per over the last 26 games, it is somewhere between 12 and 15.

Just look at his last 5 games (which hands posted above). 9.6/6 in 33.4 minutes is lame. It isn't as bad as earlier in the season but it is still bad, especially when you consider how easily he gets pushed around on D.

[jivelikenice]

The thing is, Vesley was drafted SIXTH OVERALL. We're not talking about some 2nd rounder or UDFA. He shouldn't need years of work just to be serviceable.

6th in a bad draft. Playing monday morning qb, sure we could have gone in multiple directions. But even then, a lot of the guys who are playing better this year are not sure to be the better player 2-3 years down the road. If I could go back I would take Thompson & Kawhi definitively, but I'm not sure if there's anyone else I'd prefer in the long-run that wa a realistic option @ 6. (Maybe Biyombo)

[princeofpalace]

^
Leonard and Farhied wouldve looked great for the Wiz.

[jivelikenice]

^
Leonard and Farhied wouldve looked great for the Wiz.

Farhied would have, in hindsight. I know CCJ & others were calling for him but I'm trying to differentiate between a draft re-do versus who realistically could have been taken in @ 6.

[nate33]

Just look at his last 5 games (which hands posted above). 9.6/6 in 33.4 minutes is lame. It isn't as bad as earlier in the season but it is still bad, especially when you consider how easily he gets pushed around on D.

Reposted from the Nene Trade Thread:

What's more encouraging is the GameScore per 36 minutes:

Vesely Pre-trade/Post-trade: 1.59 / 11.94
Seraphin Pre-trade/Post-trade: 7.88 / 13.49

Great stuff, Severn Hoos. Those are amazing improvements. Perhaps we should just write off Vesely's first 2 months, given the lack of training camp and the preseason injury.

When people lament that Vesely's rookie PER is an anemic 9.8, the reality is that it was probably closer to 13-15 once he got his bearings. A quick glance at his March/April numbers indicates that he has averaged roughly 9.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes with a TS% of about .590 on an extremely low usage rate. His defense is promising, particularly on the pick and roll, but he has problems holding his position against strong players and he is foul prone. With a little more strength and experience, those problems should clear up and he could pan out to be an excellent all-around defender.

Would he be a bust if he ends up averaging 12 points and 10 boards per 36 with excellent defense? Noah's career averages are 12 points and 11.5 boards.

[dobrojim]

If the offseason yields a stronger player who doesn't get pushed
around like the 95 lb weakling from the comics off my youth

and

a player who must be at least respected from the 15-18 ft range
I think he'll be a pretty useful player, worthy of rotation minutes.
Not a bust by any means IF he can make those incremental improvements

[Severn Hoos]

Thanks, nate - and I'll freely admit that I don't even know how GameScore is calculated, so I can't speak to how reliable it is as an indicator of performance. (And all the usual caveats about small sample size, etc.) But those stats seem to back up what I've seen and what many on the board have stated.

Just imagine if he had more of the prototypical (or is that stereotypical) European shooting touch - think Okur. If he had range on offense, he could be something special. Oh well, make the most of what we have....

[tontoz]

Just look at his last 5 games (which hands posted above). 9.6/6 in 33.4 minutes is lame. It isn't as bad as earlier in the season but it is still bad, especially when you consider how easily he gets pushed around on D.

Reposted from the Nene Trade Thread:

What's more encouraging is the GameScore per 36 minutes:

Vesely Pre-trade/Post-trade: 1.59 / 11.94
Seraphin Pre-trade/Post-trade: 7.88 / 13.49

Great stuff, Severn Hoos. Those are amazing improvements. Perhaps we should just write off Vesely's first 2 months, given the lack of training camp and the preseason injury.

When people lament that Vesely's rookie PER is an anemic 9.8, the reality is that it was probably closer to 13-15 once he got his bearings. A quick glance at his March/April numbers indicates that he has averaged roughly 9.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes with a TS% of about .590 on an extremely low usage rate. His defense is promising, particularly on the pick and roll, but he has problems holding his position against strong players and he is foul prone. With a little more strength and experience, those problems should clear up and he could pan out to be an excellent all-around defender.

Would he be a bust if he ends up averaging 12 points and 10 boards per 36 with excellent defense? Noah's career averages are 12 points and 11.5 boards.

A little more strength? That is like saying his foul shooting needs a little bit of improvement. This guy needs major improvements in multiple areas to be a useful NBA player. Sure it is possible but it is unlikely. It isn't like he came to the NBA out of high school.

[nate33]

A little more strength? That is like saying his foul shooting needs a little bit of improvement. This guy needs major improvements in multiple areas to be a useful NBA player. Sure it is possible but it is unlikely. It isn't like he came to the NBA out of high school.

I took the same stance on Vesely about 2 months ago. At the time, he was terrible at all facets of the game except pick-and-roll defense. He had so far to go development-wise that I just didn't think it was possible given that he was already 21. But things have changed. Like I said before, he has bulked up considerably in the middle of a grueling season, and he has already improved his rebounding ability to an average level. With his new baseline being that of a pretty good defender and an average rebounder, I think that becoming a starting caliber player is no longer out of the realm of possibility.

Another 10 pounds of muscle would allow him to compete with any PF on the block. Another 20-25 pounds of muscle will allow him to compete with centers.

I'm confident he'll add the 10 pounds necessary to be a full time PF. That'll make him a worthwhile rotation player off the bench. To be a viable starter, he needs to add an additional 10-15 pounds so he can be a center, or he needs to develop a PF's skills on offense (i.e. a reliable 17-foot jumper). If he does both, then he'll be a quality starting center and borderline all star.