Bradley Beal - Part II

Illmatic12 · Post #1081 » by **Illmatic12** » Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:06 pm

If Jimmy Butler can display literally no offensive skill for 3 seasons then out of nowhere explode into an All-Star at age 25.. I'll be damned if I write off Beal, who just turned 21 and has already shown valuable upside in his short career.

I understand the valid criticisms and it's hard to be patient because we all want to the team to be *elite* now, but it will be worth it when this guy starts to enter his prime.

Like I said, won't be surprised if he starts going off during this west coast trip. Seems like some of Beal's best career games are against West teams (on the road, at that)

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oFFwNot6K4[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmXD2RfWBgk[/youtube]

theboomking · Post #1082 » by **theboomking** » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:08 pm

Not to harp on Beal, who I like but don't love at this juncture, I wonder why he isn't a better FT shooter. For a guy reputed to be a great shooter, his career FT% is fairly low. Including his year at Florida, and his 1st 3 years as a pro, he has shot .769, .786. .788, and .800, good, but not great numbers for 'the next Ray Allen'. Ray by contrast played 19 years in the NBA and shot better than .900 eleven times and shot less than .873 only once, in his rookie year, when he shot .823.

I think Beal is heady, tries on the defensive end of the floor, and is a good rebounder and passer. He likely will be the type of player to have a greater overall team impact than his stats would suggest. While he has been good from beyond the arc, his 2P% and FT% have been middling. Is it possible or even likely that his potential as a shooter has been overrated?

fishercob · Post #1083 » by **fishercob** » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:18 pm

I want Beal and Porter to be stars immediately and they're not. That's not fair! We should trade them. Do you think Mitch Richmond is available? Perhaps Jerry Stackhouse or Rod Strickland? Someone see what Ike Austin is up to. Whatever we do, we shouldn't wait.

Illmatic12 · Post #1084 » by **Illmatic12** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:04 am

theboomking wrote:Not to harp on Beal, who I like but don't love at this juncture, I wonder why he isn't a better FT shooter. For a guy reputed to be a great shooter, his career FT% is fairly low. Including his year at Florida, and his 1st 3 years as a pro, he has shot .769, .786. .788, and .800, good, but not great numbers for 'the next Ray Allen'. Ray by contrast played 19 years in the NBA and shot better than .900 eleven times and shot less than .873 only once, in his rookie year, when he shot .823.

I think Beal is heady, tries on the defensive end of the floor, and is a good rebounder and passer. He likely will be the type of player to have a greater overall team impact than his stats would suggest. While he has been good from beyond the arc, his 2P% and FT% have been middling. Is it possible or even likely that his potential as a shooter has been overrated?

He's young, I attribute it to practice habits. He probably doesn't think he needs to spend much time practicing his FTs since people always tell him he's a great shooter.

Pierce actually mentioned something about this in one of his media day interviews, that he wants to teach Beal and Wall to be true professionals and take the little things more seriously like working on FT shooting. He even referenced their FT% off head, so that indicates he had genuinely been doing his research on our guys.

The long 2s are a different issue but FTs are a free shot with no defense. Brad can shoot a basketball better than 99.9% of people on this planet, there's no reason why he will not become a great FT shooter as he develops a proper practice + pregame routine. Ray Allen didn't just show up to the games and shoot, he practiced the same exact shots for hours even on game day, did drills without the ball, etc. PP saw all of that firsthand, and that's the type of work ethic that we expect him to pass onto Beal.

theboomking · Post #1085 » by **theboomking** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:27 am

fishercob wrote:I want Beal and Porter to be stars immediately and they're not. That's not fair! We should trade them. Do you think Mitch Richmond is available? Perhaps Jerry Stackhouse or Rod Strickland? Someone see what Ike Austin is up to. Whatever we do, we shouldn't wait.

Not really a fair characterization of this conversation. I don't think anyone is thinking wistfully about trading Beal, although I do think there are more people that are ready to prematurely dump Porter. With regards to Beal in particular, I am not sure why members of a sports forum shouldn't wonder whether a trade of Bradley Beal for a legitimate NBA star, rejected by our front office, would have been more prudently accepted by a better front office. I also don't think it is out of line to be a little worried about a lack of visible year to year progress in Beal's game.

dckingsfan · Post #1086 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:31 am

I think Nivek pointed out in another thread (rookies) that players improve with teh duration that they are in the L. Combine that with age and interesting things can happen. But habbits and health have to kick in as well. I like how Butler talked about his summer. The rented a house with no computer and just worked out...

theboomking · Post #1087 » by **theboomking** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:17 am

Props for a good game. Shot the ball well, but also was active and played good defense. I thought that for the most part Beal was in good position on Harden and was working hard, even though you wouldn't know it if you looked at Harden's box score. A lot of the shots Harden took and made would be considered bad contested shots for most players.

The Consiglieri · Post #1088 » by **The Consiglieri** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:25 am

J-Ves wrote:Chart showing Beals FG% on jump shots from 10ft to inside the 3pt line the last 3 years.
Stats from Basketball-Reference.com
-------------------------G FG FGA FG%
Bradley Beal 2014-15 20 33 106 .311
Bradley Beal 2013-14 73 207 558 .371
Bradley Beal 2012-13 56 97 266 .365

Hes clearly regressed on the long 2 this year, he was never good at it, but hes now become "Josh Smith" bad. Whats most frustrating is hes taken 106 of these types of shots but has only managed to take 76 3s on the year. As an aside, Wall has improved on this shot, shooting about 41% this year after shooting about 36% the last two.

Feels like small sample size to me, and it also follows a career trend for him as well, slow starts. He started quite slow with the Gators his year there, started slow as a rookie without Wall, can't remember how he played from the start last year but a perusal of basketball reference suggests yet another slow start, and again a slow start this year. I just think he may take some time warm up going into seasons. This is basically the fourth consecutive season where he started out pretty slow, and in the previous three, he improved significantly during the second half of the various seasons.

I think he'll be fine. He definitely needs to improve how he handles his training to go into a season for sure to avoid this in the future, but for now, I'm not sweating this. He's a good young player, not a Harden, but he's also on a significantly cheaper contract and certainly isn't earning Max with his next deal based on performance thus far. It's always a combo of the player and the contract, particularly in the NBA. Remember back when grantland did that fantastic article about contracts going into the strike shortened season? I particularly remember the write up on Nene, they almost nailed it (it was about 8 mill less than they projected), and if I remember right, they even mentioned how Denver would be regretting the deal as soon as they signed it (otoh, McGee has been a total disaster out in Denver, after initially looking good, he's basically missed everything since the spring of '13).

Tonight he was fantastic, but again, I'm waiting for consistency in season starts, and it's still a problem with him. Maybe this can jump start him through to the new world.

dckingsfan · Post #1089 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:41 am

I guess this can be the player of the game thread tonight

fishercob · Post #1090 » by **fishercob** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:26 pm

theboomking wrote:
fishercob wrote:I want Beal and Porter to be stars immediately and they're not. That's not fair! We should trade them. Do you think Mitch Richmond is available? Perhaps Jerry Stackhouse or Rod Strickland? Someone see what Ike Austin is up to. Whatever we do, we shouldn't wait.

Not really a fair characterization of this conversation. I don't think anyone is thinking wistfully about trading Beal, although I do think there are more people that are ready to prematurely dump Porter. With regards to Beal in particular, I am not sure why members of a sports forum shouldn't wonder whether a trade of Bradley Beal for a legitimate NBA star, rejected by our front office, would have been more prudently accepted by a better front office. I also don't think it is out of line to be a little worried about a lack of visible year to year progress in Beal's game.

Sorry of that came off as bitchy; I was being playful and poking fun at us all collectively -- particularly in light of this organization's long and storied history of prematurely giving up on young talent. All good questions and worthwhile discussion.

fishercob · Post #1091 » by **fishercob** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:30 pm

I love that you can tell when BB is locked in by the look in his eyes and that little jut-out of his lower jaw. He doesn't have that Kobe pro wrestler face , but rather a more characteristically subtle expression.

hands11 · Post #1092 » by **hands11** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:49 pm

Man, as good as Beal was out there last night, there was this moment when he was running around and it flashed in my head...

He's still just a baby.

Even as strong as his body is, it isn't matured like its going to be in 3 years.

He is just 21 as of Jun 28. He is still just scratching the surface. He has played two seasons of 56 games and 73 games.

I heard a commentator say recently, when he gets his legs right, he is going to be a beast. Beal is going to keep getting stronger. Those legs are going to get stronger. And he is going to improve his foot work and handles.

This is not as good as this young man is going to be. That's a year or two away still when he is 23 or three years away when he is 24

That that sink in. After two more years of Beal he will just be 23 years old.

This season has been a lot of fun so far, but this team is really about 2 years from now when Wall, Beal and Otto are 26, 23 and 23 and have 3 years each of playoff experience and Wall has been a multi year AS and MVP candidate. Thats what they have been building toward. Moves should be put in that context.

dckingsfan · Post #1093 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:54 pm

Oh come on hands - Porter should be an MVP candidate next year - let's have some optimism.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #1094 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:28 pm

theboomking wrote:Is it possible or even likely that his potential as a shooter has been overrated?

Young players take time to adjust to NBA shooting. The process of shooting is so much faster than anything they've done before and good shooting takes a feel for NBA defenders and floor spacing that can only be gained through experience.

I definitely don't think it's likely his potential has been overrated. Beal's form is absolutely perfect on any sort of set shot and he's got the rare talent to shoot well on the move. And he's a smart shooter. Those traits are what matter and predict a great deal of future success, not past shooting percentages. By the time he's in his mid 20s he should be one of the best shooters in the league. He's already one of the league's best catch and shoot players, particularly from three.

And it always bears mentioning that his game and potential are so much more expansive than just good shooting.

tontoz · Post #1095 » by **tontoz** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:56 pm

Beal shot 40% from 3 last season and is shooting 46% so far this year. Playing next to Wall 3 pt shooting is key. It almost seems like we take his 3s for granted a bit.

payitforward · Post #1096 » by **payitforward** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:38 pm

What a great story Jimmy Butler is! I hope he becomes a superstar.

Bradley Beal is an exceptionally gifted athlete and basketball player. I don't see any reason to be pessimistic about him. The opposite -- to say the least. He had a great game last night, that's for sure!

dckingsfan · Post #1097 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:01 pm

payitforward wrote:What a great story Jimmy Butler is! I hope he becomes a superstar.

Bradley Beal is an exceptionally gifted athlete and basketball player. I don't see any reason to be pessimistic about him. The opposite -- to say the least. He had a great game last night, that's for sure!

viewtopic.php?p=42153872#p42153872

dckingsfan · Post #1098 » by **dckingsfan** » Sat Jan 3, 2015 2:37 pm

Out of the last 5 - I would say two very good games, two meh and one OK. Still, looks like he might be coming around?

payitforward · Post #1099 » by **payitforward** » Sat Jan 3, 2015 4:46 pm

hands11 wrote:Man, as good as Beal was out there last night, there was this moment when he was running around and it flashed in my head...

He's still just a baby.

Even as strong as his body is, it isn't matured like its going to be in 3 years.

He is just 21 as of Jun 28. He is still just scratching the surface. He has play two seasons of 56 games and 73 games.

I heard a commentator say recently, when he gets his legs right, he is going to be a beast. Beal is going to keep getting stronger. Those legs are going to get stronger. And he is going to improve his foot work and handles.

This is not as good as this young man is going to be. That's a year or two away still when he is 23 or three years away when he is 24

That that sink in. After two more years of Beal he will just be 23 years old.

This season has been a lot of fun so far, but this team is really about 2 years from now when Wall, Beal and Otto are 26, 23 and 23 and have 3 years each of playoff experience and Wall has been a multi year AS and MVP candidate.

Hands and I often disagree, but we are one voice in this case. Beal's just North of a teenager!!

hands11 · Post #1100 » by **hands11** » Sat Jan 3, 2015 5:20 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
theboomking wrote:Is it possible or even likely that his potential as a shooter has been overrated?

Young players take time to adjust to NBA shooting. The process of shooting is so much faster than anything they've done before and good shooting takes a feel for NBA defenders and floor spacing that can only be gained through experience.

I definitely don't think it's likely his potential has been overrated. Beal's form is absolutely perfect on any sort of set shot and he's got the rare talent to shoot well on the move. And he's a smart shooter. Those traits are what matter and predict a great deal of future success, not past shooting percentages. By the time he's in his mid 20s he should be one of the best shooters in the league. He's already one of the league's best catch and shoot players, particularly from three.

And it always bears mentioning that his game and potential are so much more expansive than just good shooting.

Whats also important to keep in mind is this.

Beal is still only building his base skills. The next step we will see is one I heard talked about in the post game shows last night. He needs to assert himself as a scorer. And as his legs and body get stronger, that will become easier.

A scorer with the talents Beal has needs to force the issue in order to have their full effect. Right now, Beal is looking for good shots mostly. He is picking and choosing based on that the majority of the time. But in the next level, he needs to take on more of a mentality of being a force in the game more then just and efficient scoring compliment to the offense. That means some nights he will not be efficient and that's ok. That's part of what happens with scorers. Its also part of the path he needs to travel to become a bigger impact of the offense so they can build a deep playoff team.

The road to being an elite force in this league is not a straight line or a smooth one. There will be nights people complain he forced his shot or shot to much and to inefficiently and caused then to lose. But this is where he needs to go next in his process. A few loses now are not as important in the big picture. The end result is what they need which is for him to reach near or at his max potential 2 years down the road.

He is a scorer. He needs to maximize that. And the team needs a player like that. The effect on the other team scheming to stop that type of player opens things up for the entire offense. And keep in mind, he also rebounds and passes so he would be a more complete impact player.

As they are right now, they are more of a balanced team and that's great as a core. Even with Beal at this max potential, they can remain that type of team. Kind of like SAS is. But come the playoffs, you need players that you can turn to that makes the entire defense extend themselves to stop them. You need your Manu. Players like Manu sometimes take bad shots.

That's Beal's next level of evolution. It's him forcing the issue more over the course of the game. Driving more. Being a force. As his body gets stronger and he matures, he can get there.