Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[sashae]

Yeah, I'd agree with that as well -- you have to look at the mix of players they're playing with, and who subs in for whom. Paul gets replaced with Austin Rivers, who is totally putrid. Westbrook gets replaced with Cam Payne, but Westbrook on his own is so incredibly high usage that it's not a fair comparison. Wall's floor compatriots are **** putrid no matter what, so it's not shocking to me that his presence or not doesn't change their on/off hugely -- Wall isn't the scorer that either Westbrook or Paul are, and depends more on his floormates for productivity. That does put him a tier below those two guys, but I don't think that doesn't make him elite...

[payitforward]

Yeah, I'd agree with that as well -- you have to look at the mix of players they're playing with, and who subs in for whom. Paul gets replaced with Austin Rivers, who is totally putrid. Westbrook gets replaced with Cam Payne, but Westbrook on his own is so incredibly high usage that it's not a fair comparison. Wall's floor compatriots are **** putrid no matter what, so it's not shocking to me that his presence or not doesn't change their on/off hugely -- Wall isn't the scorer that either Westbrook or Paul are, and depends more on his floormates for productivity. That does put him a tier below those two guys, but I don't think that doesn't make him elite...

Glad you agree, but I wouldn't have made your statement (bolded): his floor-mates aren't in the slightest "putrid." Gortat is one of the better Centers in the league, Porter is already an average or better starting SF, and Beal has been playing great since his return from injury.

As well, if Wall is on "a tier below" the two elite PGs in the league (not to mention below a handful of others), how can he too be elite? Sorry, no.

[TheSecretWeapon]

...As for the Wizards being "flat out ass" when Wall sits...yeah, kinda. They're better by 2.6 per 100 possessions better on offense when Wall is in the game; and better by 2.7 per 100 on defense. Those are pretty modest differences. Compare with say Chris Paul (having a down year for him, but still WAY better than anything Wall has ever done), whose Clippers are 15.0 points per 100 possessions better offensively and 1.1 points per 100 defensively when he's in the game. Or the Thunder, which are better by 10.3 pts per 100 and 4.5 pts per 100 defensively when Westbrook is in the game. Or Toronto, which is +9.5 per 100 possessions on offense and worse on defense by 1.6 pts per 100 on defense when Lowry is in the game.

In other words, yeah the Wizards are better when Wall is in the game, but not to the degree we'd expect if Wall was an elite player. (I do note that you've basically agreed with my conclusion, although disagreed with the details. Just sayin'...)

This points to an interesting feature of stats in a game like basketball. How much better/worse a team is w/ e.g. Wall in or out of the lineup certainly tells us something about Wall, but it is also dependent to a large degree on who replaces Wall when he sits -- and, as well, to who replaces other players when Wall sits.

Ramon Sessions is having a career year -- and it's by *a lot.* He's playing just about as well as John Wall overall. He doesn't get the same number of assists, but he is posting a .57 TS%. That's 7th best in the league (among PGs who play 20+ minutes a game). It's driven by his ability to get to the line -- 4th most time per 40 minutes in that same group. And he doesn't turn the ball over much.

Very few other subs putting up numbers like his. This has to go some way to explain the in/out efficiency differential -- at least on the offensive end. No?

Yep, the quality of the backup matters in on/off numbers, especially in a single season. This year, Wall's backup has been pretty good (although I don't think this is a career year for him -- at least not in my analysis). In previous years the on/off differential has been about what it is this year with less productive reserves. My point in using the on/off stuff was to address the claim that the Wizards are smelly ass when Wall is off the floor. They're worse, but not to a degree that would be expected for a player who many seem to think is among the league's elite. For example, the Warriors are LOADED with talent and their offense is down 16.4 points per 100 possessions when Curry sits. And that's with a very productive Shaun Livingston as his primary backup.

I think your comments a few posts ago were exactly right. Wall's ~8-10 among PGs so far this season. That's very good. In my metric, he's among the top 25 in total production. Again, very good. It doesn't put him among the "elite" at his position, or among all players. And that's the point I've been making. Very good player, NOT elite.

[payitforward]

Actually, looking at Sessions' numbers per season, you may be right -- certainly it's not a career year "by *a lot*" as I wrote. But, it's definitely among his very best seasons.

Given his productivity over now almost 9 seasons in the league, Ramon Sessions has been waaay underpaid.

[gambitx777]

If Miami would take whiteside + filler for nene would we do that trade? I don't know if I would give up a pick or something else for a hot head on a rental deal either, maybe if he agrees to resign? But if we are not giving up much why they **** not do it? And I don't know if they do it either, but if they are finished with him any way and want him gone i don't see the harm of giving up nene for him. worst case we let him walk in the summer and we are out nothing. for miami they get vet and get ride of the head ache. maybe give them tomas, i mean i don't mind moving tomas with recent developments and all.

[FAH1223]

Why trade for impending free agents when you can pursue them in summer?

[TGW]

I would do Gortat and filler for Whiteside. The Heat wanted Gortat back in the day, and they could have him for his current age/pricetag. Worst comes to worst, we don't resign Whiteside, and we cleared Gortat's salary from the books.

[TGW]

Would anyone do Porter+filler for Dieng+Muhammad?

[payitforward]

Why trade for impending free agents when you can pursue them in summer?

Not relevant in this instance, as the proposal is to trade an impending FA for another one. Otherwise, you are certainly correct that it's a bad practice. Btw, that's what we did when we traded for Gortat.

In any case, given that Nene makes $13m, but Whiteside makes less than $1m, the "filler" would have to be considerable -- i.e. Luol Deng, who -- being over the hill -- would probably interest our fearless leader. Were the Heat to throw in Jarnell Stokes, and take Humphries too, I'd do it. Just to have a young big w/ potential on the roster and next to no cost.

I haven't followed Whiteside news: has he been a problem child? I suppose so, otherwise I can't imagine they'd want to deal him.

[payitforward]

According to a recent article, David Lee "has no trade value." Would that make him a target for Ernie?

[LyricalRico]

Would anyone do Porter+filler for Dieng+Muhammad?

Not interested in Muhammad since we already have Oubre. But something involving Porter for Dieng is interesting.

[LyricalRico]

According to a recent article, David Lee "has no trade value." Would that make him a target for Ernie?

You mean on a pro-rated, minimum salary contract after he's released? Absolutely!

[queridiculo]

I haven't followed Whiteside news: has he been a problem child? I suppose so, otherwise I can't imagine they'd want to deal him.

If he's been a problem child then I guess it's further evidence on how much of a class organization the Heat are, none of it has leaked out to the local press.

It could be one of two things. Whiteside has never seized being a problem child and has required constant attention from the vets and coaching staff to keep him in line. The coddling may be wearing thin on some of the vets but the organization feels there's too much potential to throw in the hat.

The other thing of course could be that the Heat feel that Whiteside is too unpredictable and that they're afraid that they may lose him without any compensation.

[payitforward]

According to a recent article, David Lee "has no trade value." Would that make him a target for Ernie?

You mean on a pro-rated, minimum salary contract after he's released? Absolutely!

Why? Who would you release?

[closg00]

According to a recent article, David Lee "has no trade value." Would that make him a target for Ernie?

You mean on a pro-rated, minimum salary contract after he's released? Absolutely!

Given Lee's age and injury history, I think there's actually a decent chance that Lee ends-up as a Wizard, I'm serious.

[Dark Faze]

we've already seen what happens with wall on the floor

despite what the on/off numbers say, look back to when Wall was injured for a good look at how our season went without him and then what changed after he got back

[closg00]

The Clippers trade offer with Denver is hilarious!!! Griffin for Gallinari (untouchable), Faried, Barton, AND Jokic. WTF? I know that is a starting point but come on.

[gambitx777]

Why trade for impending free agents when you can pursue them in summer?

Not relevant in this instance, as the proposal is to trade an impending FA for another one. Otherwise, you are certainly correct that it's a bad practice. Btw, that's what we did when we traded for Gortat.

In any case, given that Nene makes $13m, but Whiteside makes less than $1m, the "filler" would have to be considerable -- i.e. Luol Deng, who -- being over the hill -- would probably interest our fearless leader. Were the Heat to throw in Jarnell Stokes, and take Humphries too, I'd do it. Just to have a young big w/ potential on the roster and next to no cost.

I haven't followed Whiteside news: has he been a problem child? I suppose so, otherwise I can't imagine they'd want to deal him.

NENE, Dudley and tomas for deng birdman, haslem and whiteside works.
cut bird man and white side and roll with deng and white side. its addition by subtraction and making better use of fit for both teams. and no one takes on extra salary.

[gambitx777]

The Clippers trade offer with Denver is hilarious!!! Griffin for Gallinari (untouchable), Faried, Barton, AND Jokic. WTF? I know that is a starting point but come on.

Right lol. I mean i feel a fair deal would be, blake,. for Fried, Hickson, Barton and any filler on both sides seems like a fair deal maybe denver can add in some picks.
I mean its worth it for them with their young bigs to put blake next to gallo, they would destroy lives.

[Dark Faze]

sounds like the rockets are in for a meltdown soon

I'd be calling them up to offer any two of beal, porter, oubre, and a pick for Harden