Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[doclinkin]

Seriously! What is going on here? The pick swaps seem like a even bet... how is it possible that Isaiah Todd is worth 3 second round picks? Does he have an uncle in the Memphis front office?

Not an even bet. You are trading 2 top 30 picks for 3 2nd round picks of unknown value but given that Memphis had the 2nd best record in the west, and have depth and a good front office, you can assume they will be late rd 2. Not worth so much. Todd is a throw-in.

So Memphis believes that they are going to be good enough, or the Suns will be bad enough, that the pick swaps will help them? Fair enough, I guess, for 2030, but 2024 is kind of interesting. Basically they are saying to Phoenix: "We think you will be worse then us next year, despite Durant, Booker and Beal. Wanna bet on that?"

Guess we can infer from that what they think about Beal's impact on winning. Or maybe they just love Isaiah Todd?

Memphis seems to have a pretty good analytical department. Seems to me they are betting on the same things we were: The Suns are going all in with a team that is one player deep at all positions. That is capped out and has to fill the roster with minimum salary players. At the center spot you have an under-motivated talent who was complaining about touches when he had a HOF PG on the squad. They are leaning heavily on late-career stars who have significant injury histories. None of whom is a notable defender. They just fired a good coach. And hired a coach who couldn't win with a similar situation (capped out, late career stars, no youth) but in the LA market and with HOFer LeBJ on the roster -- a situation where players will take a discount to play on the team.

Seems to me a fair bet to think that Memphis, with depth etc, who played to the 2nd best record in the West last year, could very well prove better than both Phoenix and the Wiz in any given year. Certainly by 2030 when the Suns will likely be rebuilding.

Then this: Is Beal better than Chris Paul? You add Chris Paul to a team of scrubs and suddenly the team record jumps. Beal has played with teams of scrubs and the win/loss needle moved not a nudge. Beal, Booker, KD all play best with the ball in their hands, irrespective of who is on court with them. Chris Paul can't make them better or more efficient. He can make other players better and more efficient. Landry Shamet, say. Who is going to get the ball to catch-and-shoot gunner Cam Johnson? If you follow the Kuz/Cam comparison I made on another thread, Johnson's stats are as good as they are largely on the strength of his efficiency when he is wide open. Chris Paul helps players get wide open, then finds them. Beal, well, less so.

Next year yes, we will surely be worse than PHX. But Memphis has a solid shot to be better. They already were better this year. It's a smart gamble.

[payitforward]

Rebuild vs. reshape >> these are just two different metaphorical frameworks! All the same activities can be characterized using either.

(E.g. we talk about Kuz "building his brand," but we could just as easily describe him as "shaping his brand.")

Whatever metaphor you like, we've still added 8 new players to our regular roster of 15... in 4 weeks!
Make that 9 if Vukcevic stays around this year.

Including the two most significant players on the previous version of the team: Beal & KP. &, given the amount of draft capital we've collected along the way, more change is coming.

Another way to think about it: we often talk about a team's "core," which defines a generation of the team. We've begun a multi-year effort to create a new core.

[payitforward]

Not an even bet. You are trading 2 top 30 picks for 3 2nd round picks of unknown value but given that Memphis had the 2nd best record in the west, and have depth and a good front office, you can assume they will be late rd 2. Not worth so much. Todd is a throw-in.

So Memphis believes that they are going to be good enough, or the Suns will be bad enough, that the pick swaps will help them? Fair enough, I guess, for 2030, but 2024 is kind of interesting. Basically they are saying to Phoenix: "We think you will be worse then us next year, despite Durant, Booker and Beal. Wanna bet on that?"

Guess we can infer from that what they think about Beal's impact on winning. Or maybe they just love Isaiah Todd?

Memphis seems to have a pretty good analytical department. Seems to me they are betting on the same things we were: The Suns are going all in with a team that is one player deep at all positions. That is capped out and has to fill the roster with minimum salary players. At the center spot you have an under-motivated talent who was complaining about touches when he had a HOF PG on the squad. They are going all in with late-career stars who have significant injury histories. None of whom is a notable defender. They just fired a good coach. And hired a coach who couldn't win with a similar situation (capped out, late career stars, no youth) but in the LA market and with HOFer LeBJ on the roster -- a situation where players will take a discount to play on the team.

Seems to me a fair bet to think that Memphis, with depth etc, who played to the 2nd best record in the West last year, could very well prove better than both Phoenix and the Wiz in any given year. Certainly by 2030 when the Suns will likely be rebuilding.

Then this: Is Beal better than Chris Paul? You add Chris Paul to a team of scrubs and suddenly the team record jumps. Beal has played with teams of scrubs and the win/loss needle moved not a nudge. Beal, Booker, KD all play best with the ball in their hands, irrespective of who is on court with them. Chris Paul can't make them better or more efficient. He can make other players better and more efficient. Landry Shamet, say. Who is going to get the ball to catch-and-shoot gunner Cam Johnson? If you follow the Kuz/Cam comparison I made on another thread. Johnson's stats are as good as they are largely on the strength of his efficiency when he is wide open. Chris Paul helps players get wide open, then finds them. Beal, well, less so.

Next year yes, we will surely be worse than PHX. But Memphis has a solid shot to be better. They already were better this year. It's a smart gamble.

I buy this.
We'll be watching the Suns tumble "inexplicably" this year.

Where's tleikheen these days, btw?
Where are you, brother? With all your (to me) strange ways, we need you!

[payitforward]

PIF…you’re drawing conclusions based on what you personally “think” Winger & Co. are up to.

I don’t believe the new FO is doing the “complete” teardown and rebuild that you assume (and hope) they’re doing.

Coming back to this... in the video interview posted in this thread, Dawkins does distinguish what the Wizards are doing on the one hand & a "rebuild" on the other hand, in particular b/c of the veterans they've brought in -- he referred specifically to Shamet & Jones in his observations.

I'm not sure what the impact is of the distinction -- thus, Zards, you conclude that they are not doing what I "assume (and hope) they're doing."

Thing is... they are absolutely doing what I have assumed & hoped they would do!
Every single move they've made so far is one I approve of!

Certainly trading Brad.
Certainly moving KP (tho in that case it appears to have been his choice (tho even that might have been worked out w/ Dawkins based on the emergence of the Smart trade... just saying...).
In context, the move from Morris to Jones makes perfect sense as well (we had to spend the money somewhere!).
Ditto moving CP3 & the #57 for 3 young players & some draft capital.
Certainly amassing the big overall war chest of draft capital.

To be sure, I definitely voiced my preference not to bring Kuz back, but they are smarter than I am, & I had no problem coming to an understanding of the decision. You have to have someone around whom you build the public image of the team & who is recognizable enough that marketing can be centered on him.

All the more in that we had no choice but to spend the money he's costing us. Essentially, Kuz came free.
Would I have preferred a sign & trade? Sure, but I have no reason to think there was a useful one available.

In short, if I'm handing out grades, Winger & Dawkins get an A+ for absolutely everything they've done to start rebuilding/reshaping this team.

[nate33]

I think it's a "complete rebuild". And by that, I mean I think they intend to get top 4 picks in the draft for the next 2-3 years and then maybe add a youngish free agent or 2 and attempt to compete.

I don't think the addition of Jordan Poole or the retention of Kyle Kuzma conflicts with this strategy. I don't believe it is necessary or even wise to tank yourself down to 15-18 wins a season. The lottery odds are the exact same for the bottom 3 finishers, and only barely worse for the 4th and 5th finishers. Since the new lottery system was implemented, the 4th worst team in the league had 25, 25, 24 and 27 wins respectively (adjusted for an 82-game season). So tanking down to 24 wins is good enough.

Furthermore, as it turns out, this year, there will be fewer tanking teams, with only Detroit, San Antonio and Portland having no interest in winning (and San Antonio may accidentally win a bunch anyhow given then strength of their young roster). Maybe another mediocre team like Orlando, Indiana, Utah or Charlotte has a rash of early injuries and joins the tanking club, but that'll probably be it. So I figure the best possible Wizards finish is 5th worst, but I think bottom 3 is very much possible.

[mhd]

I think it's a "complete rebuild". And by that, I mean I think they intend to get top 4 picks in the draft for the next 2-3 years and then maybe add a youngish free agent or 2 and attempt to compete.

I don't think the addition of Jordan Poole or the retention of Kyle Kuzma conflicts with this strategy. I don't believe it is necessary or even wise to tank yourself down to 15-18 wins a season. The lottery odds are the exact same for the bottom 3 finishers, and only barely worse for the 4th and 5th finishers. Since the new lottery system was implemented, the 4th worst team in the league had 25, 25, 24 and 27 wins respectively (adjusted for an 82-game season). So tanking down to 24 wins is good enough.

Furthermore, as it turns out, this year, there will be fewer tanking teams, with only Detroit, San Antonio and Portland having no interest in winning (and San Antonio may accidentally win a bunch anyhow given then strength of their young roster). Maybe another mediocre team like Orlando, Indiana, Utah or Charlotte has a rash of early injuries and joins the tanking club, but that'll probably be it. So I figure the best possible Wizards finish is 5th worst, but I think bottom 3 is very much possible.

Detroit has a much more incentive to win than we do. They need to evaluate their young guys. The have been tanking for 3+ years now. It is us vs Portland vs SAS (once Dame is traded) that are actually tanking/evaluating young guys. I'd also say that Portland & SAS have much better young talent than we do.

At least in the EAST, I'd say we are comfortably the worst team. Everyone else has more talent and/or an incentive to win now. Look at the EAST:

Clearly better (contenders):
1). Boston
2). Bucks
3). Heat (if they get Dame)
4). 76ers (if they keep Harden)

Solidly better (playoff locks):
5). Cavs
6). Knicks
7). Hawks (think they will be much improved with Snyder and will at least make the play-in. I could also seem them jumping the Knicks)

Play-in Contenders:
8). Pacers (really fun team. Healthy Tyrese coupled with expected improved Mathurin makes them a threat to make a leap)
9). Magic (expect jumps from Wagner & Paulo)
10). Nets (no incentive to tank as they don't have their pick)
11). Bulls (solid vet treadmill team)
12). Raptors (have zero shooting on the team, but can make a standings jump if Barnes improves. Season could derail with impending FAs in Pascal, Trent, and OG)

Dregs:
13). Charlotte (sneakily talented. Could easily move them up into play-in contender. Healthy LaMelo, Hayward, and returning Bridges makes them competitive).
14). Pistons (way too young, but they need to show some improvement. It has been 3 years since they started tanking)
15). Wizards (no way are we not the worst in the EAST)

[doclinkin]

By way of context though this is what Zards was responding to:

Tyus Jones will command a big raise. Why do we want to keep him?

We are engaged in a ground up rebuild. We did keep Kuz -- for reasons that have little to do with his productivity (even if he were extremely productive on the court that wouldn't be why we'd keep him).

Tyus is really good. I would imagine that he'd command a good return at the deadline. Let's trade him for as much draft capital as we can get.

Whereas I would not be surprised if the Front Office re-upped Jones to an extension. Sounds to me like they had him tabbed as a key player.

In the distinction between re-tool and re-shaping Dawkins cited bringing in skilled veterans as part of the process. Seems to me like they are doing a better version of a 'middle build' blueprint. They are collecting draft capital WHILE upgrading on the fly at key positions. Yes they are also preserving cap flexibility currently with expiring contracts. But it seems to me they are not strictly trying to suck by shipping out all their talent simply for future tickets. Seems to me they are trying to improve the team:

PG: Slight upgrade at starting point.

SG: Possibly slight downgrade (*) but a long-term talent with potentially better upside. On a large contract.
Upgraded depth by adding a young veteran outside shooter likely entering his prime years. (age-wise).

SF: Moved future capital to draft a player with likely more future potential than those on the roster. While retaining both young cats who have split the position this past year.

PF: Re-inked last year's starter to a long term contract. Brought in both young talent and a skilled veteran (if they keep Gallo).

C: Lost talent. Downgrade, but from a talented player with an injury history who did not wish to re-sign here and was willing to walk for free. We do need a starting Center. Gafford's 20 mins per game limits him essentially to back-up status even when he is starting.

(*) Though maybe not if you compare both player's age 22 seasons. Figuring last year was a blip in the development of Poole, with player chemistry issues interfering:
https://stathead.com/tiny/9fk2P

Anyway. I think they are actually trying both to improve today, and also collect future tickets.

[DCZards]

I don’t think the moves being made by the Zards FO are ONLY about draft capital. Winger & Co may not see Jones as trade bait but as a proven, relatively young oncourt leader with the ability to help with the development of the youngins and still be young enough 4-5 years from now to contribute to a much-improved Zards team.

I believe Jones will be signed to an extension rather than traded for picks.

Even talented young teams need proven leadership, especially at the guard position. The Rockets found that out. That’s why they just paid the 29 year old VanVleet big bucks to come to Houston. Adding the veteran guard CJ McCollough turned around the Pels 2021-22 season.

I'm also pretty sure that the Pistons traded for the vet Monte Morris to help counter balance the youth of Cunningham, Ivey, etc.

[GoneShammGone]

I don’t think the moves being made by the Zards FO are ONLY about draft capital. Winger & Co may not see Jones as trade bait but as a proven, relatively young oncourt leader with the ability to help with the development of the youngins and still be young enough 4-5 years from now to contribute to a much-improved Zards team.

I believe Jones will be signed to an extension rather than traded for picks.

Even talented young teams need proven leadership, especially at the guard position. The Rockets found that out. That’s why they just paid the 29 year old VanVleet big bucks to come to Houston. Adding the veteran guard CJ McCollough turned around the Pels 2021-22 season.

I'm also pretty sure that the Pistons traded for the vet Monte Morris to help counter balance the youth of Cunningham, Ivey, etc.

I agree that a tanking team needs competent veterans to maintain professionalism and mentor the youngsters, but first you have to get the youngsters...

The way to win in this league is with star level players who actually give positive value on max contracts. Players who are better than Bradley Beal and KP. (Those guys are good, don't get me wrong. They can help a team get over the top, when they already have a true superstar, but we've seen what happens when they are your best guys.) We have none of those now (with the possible exception of Bilal and Vukcevic, if they develop). How do we get those players? The only answer is the draft. So right now the priority has to be getting as many high draft picks as possible in order to maximize our chances of finding foundational pieces to build around.

With this is mind, I think that the only value Kuz, Jones, Poole, Avdija, Gaff, and Corey have to the team is what they can bring us in the draft via trade. Over the next two seasons I expect them all to go.

[closg00]

Since Huff is gone, I wish we had picked-up Bol for the paltry $2.2M he is owed, the Suns are going to get him now.

[gambitx777]

I mean I don't think anymore trades happen until the same stuff breaks the second damn there

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[trast66]

So the first class of 2020 non max rookie extension given to Isaiah Stewart, 4/64. Deni will be seeking similar would assume.

[nate33]

So the first class of 2020 non max rookie extension given to Isaiah Stewart, 4/64. Deni will be seeking similar would assume.

I'd be very happy with that contract for Avdija, particularly if it's front loaded with descending annual salary.

My guess is that Avdija is going to want more. Multi-position wings are more valuable than backup centers.

[9 and 20]

I don’t think the moves being made by the Zards FO are ONLY about draft capital. Winger & Co may not see Jones as trade bait but as a proven, relatively young oncourt leader with the ability to help with the development of the youngins and still be young enough 4-5 years from now to contribute to a much-improved Zards team.

I believe Jones will be signed to an extension rather than traded for picks.

Even talented young teams need proven leadership, especially at the guard position. The Rockets found that out. That’s why they just paid the 29 year old VanVleet big bucks to come to Houston. Adding the veteran guard CJ McCollough turned around the Pels 2021-22 season.

I'm also pretty sure that the Pistons traded for the vet Monte Morris to help counter balance the youth of Cunningham, Ivey, etc.

I agree that a tanking team needs competent veterans to maintain professionalism and mentor the youngsters, but first you have to get the youngsters...

The way to win in this league is with star level players who actually give positive value on max contracts. Players who are better than Bradley Beal and KP. (Those guys are good, don't get me wrong. They can help a team get over the top, when they already have a true superstar, but we've seen what happens when they are your best guys.) We have none of those now (with the possible exception of Bilal and Vukcevic, if they develop). How do we get those players? The only answer is the draft. So right now the priority has to be getting as many high draft picks as possible in order to maximize our chances of finding foundational pieces to build around.

With this is mind, I think that the only value Kuz, Jones, Poole, Avdija, Gaff, and Corey have to the team is what they can bring us in the draft via trade. Over the next two seasons I expect them all to go.

I agree - the young guys on the team without connections to the new brain trust are probably going to be traded. The vets will for sure be traded once they build up some more trade value.

[joshuacf]

So the first class of 2020 non max rookie extension given to Isaiah Stewart, 4/64. Deni will be seeking similar would assume.

I'd be very happy with that contract for Avdija, particularly if it's front loaded with descending annual salary.

My guess is that Avdija is going to want more. Multi-position wings are more valuable than backup centers.

I think he'd need to significantly improve his offensive numbers in order to warrant a contract like that. Something like a 3P% of 0.34 on around 14 ppg per 36. If he puts up a similar season to last year and expects 16M AAV over 4 years he's going to be in for a rude awakening.

[Hibachi_0]

Looks like Gill may be considering going back to Europe.

Read on Twitter

?t=bsgTJ_sIzgo7EsqAdPsVVQ&s=19

[TGW]

Looks like Gill may be considering going back to Europe.

Read on Twitter

?t=bsgTJ_sIzgo7EsqAdPsVVQ&s=19

Oh no! Chris Miller's favorite player won't be back...now the tank is really on.

[Frichuela]

Looks like Gill may be considering going back to Europe.

Read on Twitter

?t=bsgTJ_sIzgo7EsqAdPsVVQ&s=19

Makes sense. The roster is bloated with 17 contracts…If Gill leaves, we still need to get rid of at least one additional contract…

[payitforward]

I don’t think the moves being made by the Zards FO are ONLY about draft capital....

For sure not!
No reason to think that Poole, Baldwin or Rollins were acquired because they might bring draft capital later on.
We didn't acquire Landry Shamet for draft capital either; we acquired him, b/c he was what we could get in the Beal trade! That's true, even if he gets traded for a pick.
We didn't re-sign Kuzma to get draft capital in the future.

& you are certainly correct that

...Winger & Co may not see Jones as trade bait but as a proven, relatively young oncourt leader...

In fact, how could they not see him that way? That's who he is -- & he's still that, even if they do wind up trading him!

As to:

...I believe Jones will be signed to an extension rather than traded for picks....

Maybe. If the deal is right, why not? Obviously those aren't the only options. Nor are they even mutually exclusive. He might be re-signed & then traded. Nor does he have to be traded for picks.

When I look at the Washington Wizards right now, I see a completely different team from the one I saw in mid-April. I see

1. Bilal, Vukcevic, Poole, Baldwin, Rollins, Davis, Avdija & Kispert -- 8 guys whose average age is 21 & who are clearly imagined as the heart of the team going forward. At least that would be the hope. In any case, except for Vukcevic (who may spend another year in Europe) all of them have guaranteed contracts for this season.

2. Some guys who don't look like they are likely to be Wizards long-term (although one never knows): Landry Shamet, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, & maybe even Anthony Gill, who is rumored to be heading back to Europe. Delon might go on this list too, given he's 31 & expiring -- hard to know....

3. The remaining core: Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford, Tyus Jones, & (probably? maybe?) Xavier Cooks.

Since that's 17 guys, all of whom have guaranteed contracts w/ the exception of Vukcevic, we can be sure that at least some moves are coming. Those moves don't have to be about getting "draft capital."

It might just be something simple: buy out Gallo &/or trade Shamet for a pick. Or, it might be a more significant trade of some kind. My money would be on the latter -- not that I have the slightest idea of what such a transaction might involve: I just see Winger/dawkins as being in high gear right now, looking for opportunities. Just a thought....

Do we call this a rebuild or... what?
Who cares? So far so good.

[bsilver]

Gill has a good life here, but he knows he’s just a cheerleader and break glass NBA player. If he wants to have a meaningful role somewhere it’s overseas.

Detroit has a glut of Cs (Stewart, Dedmond, Duren, Wiseman) and is short on PFs. We need depth at C and Muscala can’t be the type of player we’re looking for long term, and either is Galinari. How about Galinari for Wiseman. Wiseman’s only guaranteed for 1 year. He’s still young and has too much potential to write off this early.