2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[payitforward]

Okay... the last several posts have moved me back to being excited instead of nervous....

[DukeLecker]

Utah is not taking Bailey

How you figure? Listened to the Bill Simmons podcast him and Russilo made it seem like Bailey is the quintessential Ainge pick. Pedigree, athletic profile, upside in the face of bust potential. I feel like Utah is the biggest threat to take Bailey.

[closg00]

Utah is not taking Bailey

How you figure? Listened to the Bill Simmons podcast him and Russilo made it seem like Bailey is the quintessential Ainge pick. Pedigree, athletic profile, upside in the face of bust potential. I feel like Utah is the biggest threat to take Bailey.

Nepo Ainge’s first draft, nobody knows their strategy..

[NatP4]

Utah is not taking Bailey

How you figure? Listened to the Bill Simmons podcast him and Russilo made it seem like Bailey is the quintessential Ainge pick. Pedigree, athletic profile, upside in the face of bust potential. I feel like Utah is the biggest threat to take Bailey.

Nepo Ainge’s first draft, nobody knows their strategy..

Yep, it’s also being widely reported that Bailey prefers Washington/NOP/BKN and doesn’t want to go to Utah/turned down workouts invites from them.

The Jazz also picked another raw high upside wing last year in Cody Williams. Same size/plays the same position, looks like a bust already.

I haven’t seen a single mock from a draft analyst that projects Ace to Utah.

[AFM]

Latest mock from USA Today has Bailey going fourth and us drafting Fears. Basically no one knows what’s going to happen after the first two picks.

[payitforward]

That's a pretty strong message of commitment to Bailey, nate. Am I alone in worrying about his bust potential?

(Truth is, btw, that it's not even clear to me *why* I have that worry!)

I think everyone is concerned about his bust potential. But you balance it against his potential for success and the fact that we can give him time to grow and develop. We're still 3 or 4 years away from competing seriously. It's a no brainer. I'd take Ace at 3. I'd trade up to take Ace given the large amount of second round picks that we have. If we have to give up 18 I would hesitate though. I'd love to trade back up and draft another player at the end of the lottery but if the team loves and believes in Ace then I'd do it. Not many players have the potential to be an impactful two way player. If Ace was in last years draft I would take him #1. And if we would have gotten the third pick in this draft I would take Ace at 3. This is a no brainer. Imo, after Flagg and Harper he's the best player in the draft and he fits our roster.

Yeah, prime, you frame it perfectly. You're right.

[closg00]

Anyone else *cough cough* calling in sick on Thursday?
I will be up too-late with my popcorn, then spamming the board on Thursday.

[TGW]

What if the first 5 are Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe, & Maluach?
Then what?

Johnson? Fears?

I might well take Knueppel over either of them....Certainly over Johnson.

Yes, Knueppel has to be in the discussion. I wouldn’t have said that a week ago because I was buying the Knueppel bashing on this board.

But after watching some vids of him the past couple of days I have to admit that the young man can hoop.

He's the most skilled player in the draft. He can shoot, pass, handle the ball, score at all three levels. Anyone who compares him to Kispert doesn't watch basketball.

He's basically a 19 year old version of Austin Reaves, but bigger and probably a better shooter (although Reaves has the better handle). Defense is going to be his achilles heel, but offensively he's about as good a prospect as you'll find.

[payitforward]

Just realized after this draft that we may have drafted/traded for the entire starting lineup + some bench guys and still maybe not have identified our first option:

Hypothetical after draft:

Fears(?)/Bub/Bilal/Keyshawn/Sarr
Queen(?)/Kispert/Johnson

Can assume Kispert is gone, but I think you do enter weird territory from a team building standpoint if you reach this point without having identified your franchise player. You end up in a position where your draft odds probably worsen, roster size starts to become a concern, etc. You end up kind of feeling pressured to try to get the best free agent you can get and make the playoffs.

The Bulls are probably the best example of a team that has succumbed to this. I don't think we Wizards fans have actually faced this in decades given the movement from Arenas -> Wall -> Beal.

I follow your reasoning, but I don't think this is a concrete problem given how many kids we have who are early in their development: we aren't getting a whole lot better any time soon. Moreover, we have a ton of draft assets to use in shaping our draft strategy.

[closg00]

Okay... the last several posts have moved me back to being excited instead of nervous....

Your concerns are legit, Ace had three technicals in his one year of college hoops, I am more concerned about his temperament/attitude than his talent.

[pcbothwel]

Im still trying to figure out what Ace does better than Coward.
Coward is shorter, but bigger, longer arms, better frame, bigger hands, etc.
Coward is the better shooter from everywhere, better passer/processer, more physical, similar athlete. He has a perfect basketball build, moves with efficiency, and is a PROVEN hard worker that has shown humility about his own shortcomings.

To me, Coward becomes a Norman Powell type as floor, with a very clear path to being a Bane type, if not more.
Coward and Wolf, and to a lesser extent Sorber, are so clearly undervalued that I cant wrap my head around it.

[tontoz]

What if the first 5 are Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe, & Maluach?
Then what?

Johnson? Fears?

I might well take Knueppel over either of them....Certainly over Johnson.

Yes, Knueppel has to be in the discussion. I wouldn’t have said that a week ago because I was buying the Knueppel bashing on this board.

But after watching some vids of him the past couple of days I have to admit that the young man can hoop.

He's the most skilled player in the draft. He can shoot, pass, handle the ball, score at all three levels. Anyone who compares him to Kispert doesn't watch basketball.

He's basically a 19 year old version of Austin Reaves, but bigger and probably a better shooter (although Reaves has the better handle). Defense is going to be his achilles heel, but offensively he's about as good a prospect as you'll find.

Reaves excels shooting off the dribble. Kon has been awful shooting off the dribble.

[TGW]

Yes, Knueppel has to be in the discussion. I wouldn’t have said that a week ago because I was buying the Knueppel bashing on this board.

But after watching some vids of him the past couple of days I have to admit that the young man can hoop.

He's the most skilled player in the draft. He can shoot, pass, handle the ball, score at all three levels. Anyone who compares him to Kispert doesn't watch basketball.

He's basically a 19 year old version of Austin Reaves, but bigger and probably a better shooter (although Reaves has the better handle). Defense is going to be his achilles heel, but offensively he's about as good a prospect as you'll find.

Reaves excels shooting off the dribble. Kon has been awful shooting off the dribble.

KK is 19, Reaves is 27. KK has time to get on Reaves level, if not surpass it.

[prime1time]

That's a pretty strong message of commitment to Bailey, nate. Am I alone in worrying about his bust potential?

(Truth is, btw, that it's not even clear to me *why* I have that worry!)

I think everyone is concerned about his bust potential. But you balance it against his potential for success and the fact that we can give him time to grow and develop. We're still 3 or 4 years away from competing seriously. It's a no brainer. I'd take Ace at 3. I'd trade up to take Ace given the large amount of second round picks that we have. If we have to give up 18 I would hesitate though. I'd love to trade back up and draft another player at the end of the lottery but if the team loves and believes in Ace then I'd do it. Not many players have the potential to be an impactful two way player. If Ace was in last years draft I would take him #1. And if we would have gotten the third pick in this draft I would take Ace at 3. This is a no brainer. Imo, after Flagg and Harper he's the best player in the draft and he fits our roster.

Yeah, prime, you frame it perfectly. You're right.

The question is if he goes what do we do. And to that I really don't know. Is Tre Johnson or Fears on our roster really a game changer? If someone really wants to trade up I'd consider trading back and accumulating draft picks.

[NatP4]

Reaves entered the draft as a 23 year old 5th year senior. Babe was a 22 year old 4th year senior. People act like Knueppel, a 19 year old freshman, isn’t going to improve.

The off the dribble shooting is an extremely small sample size for a guy that wasn’t asked to create off the dribble shots. Scheyer specifically discouraged anything but 3s and rim 2s. Knueppel was damn near 50/40/90 as a freshman, high volume 3pt shooting.

He’s better at getting to the rim and significantly better at finishing than all of Fears/Edgecombe/Bailey.

[NatP4]

Final big board from NC:

Read on Twitter

[tontoz]

He's the most skilled player in the draft. He can shoot, pass, handle the ball, score at all three levels. Anyone who compares him to Kispert doesn't watch basketball.

He's basically a 19 year old version of Austin Reaves, but bigger and probably a better shooter (although Reaves has the better handle). Defense is going to be his achilles heel, but offensively he's about as good a prospect as you'll find.

Reaves excels shooting off the dribble. Kon has been awful shooting off the dribble.

KK is 19, Reaves is 27. KK has time to get on Reaves level, if not surpass it.

If he eventually excels at something he sucks at, sure. But you can make that argument for a lot of guys. If their weakness becomes a strength then they look much better as prospects.

[AFM]

This is a really well done dive into Johnson's game:

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/tre-johnson-not-just-a-bucket

[payitforward]

...where "he" is Ace, I assume.

If Ace is gone, that increases the chances of Maluach being on the board. If so, he's my pick.

If Maluach is also gone, then we can assume that one of Edgecombe or Johnson is on the board. I'd be pretty happy to take Edgecombe, but I have very little to no interest in Johnson. Hence, if all of Ace, Maluach & Edgecombe are gone, I go with one of the trade-down opportunities (I imagine a number of them have been discussed).

[NatP4]

If he eventually excels at something he sucks at, sure. But you can make that argument for a lot of guys. If their weakness becomes a strength then they look much better as prospects.

If Kon doesn’t become an off the dribble scorer, he will still be an elite off the ball player/one of the best shooters in the NBA, and high level secondary playmaker with 99th percentile basketball IQ&compete. He’ll be incredibly efficient with his shooting&rim finishing. He also draws FTs at a really solid clip.

His defense is passable/average at worst right now with potential to be above average with his frame/strength. His positioning and feel on that end is elite.

Again, this isn’t some spot up shooter 22 year old upperclassman that has reached his ceiling. He was a 5 star top 20 ranked recruit that led the EYBL in scoring. Was the 2nd best player on the best NCAA team, put up some of the best numbers of a 19 year old freshman guard in the last decade.