Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

[tontoz]

I'm feeling really encouraged after reading the following article regarding Okafor's improved offensive game. I think he and Ariza are going to improve the team more than people might expect.

http://www.hornets247.com/blog/2012/02/ ... ole-story/

This past season Seraphin scored 15.4 pts per 40 minutes with a TS% of 55%. He did this in spite of hardly seeing the ball before the trade. In April he averaged 19 pts per 40.

The last time Okafor beat Seraphins yearly numbers was the 08/09 season.

And when was the last time Seraphin beat Okarfor's rebounding numbers?

Holy change of subject Batman.

But since you brought it up second year Seraphin has not beat Okafor's rebounding numbers. The key question is how much are you willing to pay for an extra 2 rebounds a game, assuming Seraphin doesn't improve?

[tontoz]

I was impressed by how well Seraphin played at the end of last season. I have high hopes for him. But let's not forget that he accumulated most of those stats in a handful of games either against lousy teams or playoff- bound teams resting their stars.

It will be good to have Okafor around to show a young guy like Kevin how to rebound and defend with both your body and your brains. How to set solid picks...and a few other things.

They played 15 games in April and 14 games in March (16.3 pts per 40 shooting 61.5%). You must have really big hands if that is your idea of a handful of games.

They already had Nene to mentor Seraphin, who was already a good defender before Nene got here. He played tough man D on Bynum and Dwight Howard(while shooting well against them). I think he could teach Okafor something about defending the pick and roll.

[Ruzious]

Jason Reid comes-through again, glad he isn't a stenographer like most Washington sports reporters.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

That might be the most impressive basketball article I've ever read from the Washington Post. Not only was it very intelligent, but it took gutts to write. He may not have had a great relationship before with Wiz ownership and management, but now he's probably going to be persona non grata atda phone booth - they ain't gonna feed him a thing. That's the price of integrity. Jason Reid manned up.

[Dat2U]

This past season Seraphin scored 15.4 pts per 40 minutes with a TS% of 55%. He did this in spite of hardly seeing the ball before the trade. In April he averaged 19 pts per 40.

The last time Okafor beat Seraphins yearly numbers was the 08/09 season.

I was impressed by how well Seraphin played at the end of last season. I have high hopes for him. But let's not forget that he accumulated most of those stats in a handful of games either against lousy teams or playoff- bound teams resting their stars.

It will be good to have Okafor around to show a young guy like Kevin how to rebound and defend with both your body and your brains. How to set solid picks...and a few other things.

That's fine and all. But that's not worth $28 million.

Nor is his rebounding worth $28 million.

Adding MKG and maintaining status quo was already a huge improvement last year. Nene & Seraphin are/were very capable of handling the C position together. We were going to be better next year with or without this move.

Acquiring vets are fine (I'm not against that), but this was a poorly timed effort that's created roster duplication with huge financial repercussions. Why rush into a deal before the draft? Was NO going to make us pay with the #3 pick if we didn't except their offer right now?

We've gone from a young improving team on the upswing with cap room/flexibility to add a significant piece to an older, capped out team with little flexibility. At best, were a marginal team that may compete for a lower playoff seed. That wasn't worth $42 million.

But I'm pretty much done arguing this. As each day passes, Wizards fans in general (not just on here) seem to like the trade more and more. Which is frankly pretty typical.

I just find it funny that I hear pretty much the same arguments for every trade...

"This trade clearly improves the team"

"The vet(s) we acquired can show the young guys X"

"This trade will look better when we make X move down the line"

"What better trade could you have come up with?"

"We are the Wizards, what star were we going to get instead?"

I'm sure I'm missing a few, but yeah, this thread is filled with the same arguments I heard for previous EG deals.

[Dat2U]

Jason Reid comes-through again, glad he isn't a stenographer like most Washington sports reporters.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

That might be the most impressive basketball article I've ever read from the Washington Post. Not only was it very intelligent, but it took gutts to write. He may not have had a great relationship before with Wiz ownership and management, but now he's probably going to be persona non grata atda phone booth - they ain't gonna feed him a thing. That's the price of integrity. Jason Reid manned up.

Yeah, Leonsis has shown he's quite sensitive to the media criticism. It means Reid and possibly even the WP will likely feel the repercussions for it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So here's something I was not expecting: The Wages of Wins Journal loves the trade for the Wizards.

I don't read it that often, so I don't know what to specifically make of much of the data, but it is interesting to see a stat blog laud this for the Wiz. The entire article is worth a read, but some notable excerpts:

The Wizards now have a much better looking squad than before. This trade gives them above average options at PG (Wall), SF (Ariza), PF (Nene,Vesely) and C (Okafor). Nene in particular is interesting.

After injury woes early in the season, Nene reverted to form with his new team playing at star level. Throw in the fact that he will be better at the 4 than the 5 and this is good news for Wizards fans.

Wall is playing like a young player coming into his own. His play shows flashes of brilliance but also is inconsistent. Next year is where I would expect him to make the leap that young players do and he seems on the cusp of it. I also do not believe it was an accident that his level of play jumped when the roster around him got better.

Wall is entering the final two years of his contract and the Wizards really do need to find out what they have. The time then for the Wizards is now. They needed to build a winning team around their potential franchise player.

I believe they have. An emerging point guard, an effective swingman with experience in big games, size with talent.

So yes, Washington is a playoff team in the East next season. I think 45 wins is a reasonable target with the roster assembled. If Wall jumps a level they’ll beat that easily. Now I won’t do a full projection as of yet because they have an incomplete roster. In particular the shooting guard position is open and there are some very interesting names out there.

Ray Allen or James Harden anyone?

So, Nivek, nate33, payitforward, CCJ -- vocal dissenters who rely heavily on stats for their analysis -- does this make you feel any better?

A 45 win pace would have been the 7th seed in this year's East. If the Wiz do that and then go into next offseason with Ariza and Okafor expiring (or Ariza perhaps opting out) this year's picks headed into their second years, other young guys maturing, etc., I can't say I'd be any less than thrilled. I know many here would find a way to complain about it and term anything short of a deep playoff run as a "return to mediocrity," but whatever.

Hope!

fish, Nivek and nate have already responded. My thoughts echo theirs. Seems too steep a price to pay for marginal upgrades.

I like Arturo's work and I am into the WoW stats. So, the article did give the trade a silver lining around the clouds that I see. If Okafor can defend intelligently and Nene can box out and do the things he's done well the Wizards will be good defensively. Ariza has been a good defender and I expect him to improve the perimeter defense. Arturo's negative feelings toward Ariza's numbers and my own concerns make me think I might end up wanting him traded more than Okafor. However, I am one who liked Ariza way back. Maybe, that Ariza will return.

I am not as worried about the deal now because I have accepted it and I have to see it play out on the court. The possibility exists that Okafor can be flipped for someone like Kevin Martin. If the Wizards draft MKG, they could flip Ariza for someone like Ben Gordon.

I am looking forward now, fish. The trade is a done deal and the Wizards are in win now mode. The draft and free agency can help move toward the goals of making the playoffs and improving the young talent. Unless they are traded, I am considering Okafor and Ariza key cogs in the wheel. I will be as optimistic as I can. What is done is done.

[Dat2U]

If we drafted MKG and flipped Okafor for K. Martin, that would be a huge step in the right direction.

[hands11]

“I think he has unbelievable talent,” Ariza said of Wall. “I watched him play last year and then got to play with him a little in the summertime. I can’t believe that someone can move that fast with the basketball. That explosiveness, and from what I’ve seen, he’s also been knocking down his shots. He’s been working, I’ve noticed that. His jumper is looking really, really, really good, for those who haven’t seen him lately.”

Personally, I had very little doubt that would be the case. His J form looked better last year and he got on little minnie streaks where it was effective. All he needed was another summer to work on it. Look at Rose. It took him a few year and he was terrible from outside. Look at Rondo. He was horrible. John has the size and speed to get wide open looks. That is a shot most talented PGs can add to their game.

That said, I don't think he is going to try to be a Westbrook. He will go on little runs but I fully expect him to try to get other involved first. I expect a 10+ assist season from him. Specially if we add someone like Beal at SG.

This is a solid playoff team. People will slowly warm up to that fact.

[hands11]

Another good read on the direction of our franchise and risks:

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... um=twitter

It’s a reasonable approach. It doesn’t mean that they can’t draft the best player available with the third pick. It doesn’t mean that they can’t move forward with the remaining young players that they have. It just means they didn’t give out money to veterans who would have wanted five-year deals. It does, however, mean that they are in win-now-while-building-for-the-future mode. That’s a popular approach right now. The Denver Nuggets are a great example of that. They can compete right now, make the playoffs, excel, but they’re also set to make a big move if one comes available. The Houston Rockets are right below them in that regard. So that’s kind of the approach. “Get better for the future while also getting the fanbase to appreciate you not being terrible.” That doesn’t sound so bad, right?


Pretty much sums up my posts and other who see the same thing.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If we drafted MKG and flipped Okafor for K. Martin, that would be a huge step in the right direction.

Arturo's article got me thinking Okafor could add something, but I would much, much rather have Martin for the short run at SG to mentor or just to start in front of Jordan Crawford.

If the Wizards rehabilitate the career of Okafor they might have one valuable trade piece. Same with Ariza.

[montestewart]

I like the Wages of Wins metric, not exclusively, but it has gotten me to take a closer look at certain players I'd been selling short. Still, I haven't forgotten the WoW discussion of the Wizards upcoming 2009-2010 season. They seemed pretty darn excited about the acquisition of Mike Miller and the potential development of Dominic McGuire.

http://wagesofwins.com/2009/08/27/are-t ... n-the-nba/

With a full and proper offseason and preseason, I expect some or all of Wall, Seraphin, Vesely, Booker and Chris Singleton to make significant advances, in the flow of the improved team play and defense evidenced after the Nene trade. I would have anticipated a better team regardless, particularly with the acquisition of efficient and reliable shooters for the 1st and 2ns units. Still waiting for that last part. I don't know that the new additions alter that projection (positively or negatively) all that much. In other words, I thought the team looked like it was already on its way toward shedding the losing culture and the chronic losing, not necessarily as a playoff team, but as a team that worked toward playing the right way, as a team.

Since Ariza's current deal began, he's seemed a different player on offense, sometimes almost Blatche-like in the shots he settles for, but I've liked his overall game going back to his Orlando stint and, shooting aside, I have no reason to think his game isn't still at the level. Absent health issues, I have no reason to think Okafor isn't still a tough, savvy interior player and rebounder, and both have always seemed to be smart and solid team players and NBA citizens. It seems like most who object to this trade see similar: not bad players, just a bad, short sighted trade. Regardless, they're here now, and I'm not going to root against them, or any players acquired in subsequent trades.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I just had a wild thought. The Wizards right now are built around defense, and until they upgrade from Jordan Crawford they have a very high usage, but low efficiency player at SG.

That got the Philadelphia 76ers all the way to the Finals with Allen Iverson taking a bunch of shots on relatively low efficiency. The rest of their team killed it on the boards and played terrific defense. We talk about Wall needing to improve his three point shooting and I always consider Jordan Crawford trades. This coming season if Crawford shoots better with the Wizards being much better defensively and on the boards, Washington could be built similar to the 2001 Philly team. (Or, if Beal comes in and gets shots like a young Kobe did with the Lakers back around 1999.)

Crawford takes shots just like Iverson. He has no conscience. He lacks the athleticism, strength, and accuracy of Iverson at his best. Yet, Jordan's shooting is pretty similar to that of 1999 Allen Iverson.

Someone please bring me back to earth from the wild thought. That is best of the best case scenario stuff. (It would also make Arturo's 45-win or better projection be spot on).

[DCZards]

I am looking forward now, fish. The trade is a done deal and the Wizards are in win now mode. The draft and free agency can help move toward the goal of making the playoffs and improving the young talent. Unless they are traded, I am considering Okafor and Ariza key cogs in the wheel. I will be as optimistic as I can. What is done is done.

+1

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I like the Wages of Wins metric, not exclusively, but it has gotten me to take a closer look at certain players I'd been selling short. Still, I haven't forgotten the WoW discussion of the Wizards upcoming 2009-2010 season. They seemed pretty darn excited about the acquisition of Mike Miller and the potential development of Dominic McGuire.

http://wagesofwins.com/2009/08/27/are-t ... n-the-nba/

With a full and proper offseason and preseason, I expect some or all of Wall, Seraphin, Vesely, Booker and Chris Singleton to make significant advances, in the flow of the improved team play and defense evidenced after the Nene trade. I would have anticipated a better team regardless, particularly with the acquisition of efficient and reliable shooters for the 1st and 2ns units. Still waiting for that last part. I don't know that the new additions alter that projection (positively or negatively) all that much. In other words, I thought the team looked like it was already on its way toward shedding the losing culture and the chronic losing, not necessarily as a playoff team, but as a team that worked toward playing the right way, as a team.

Since Ariza's current deal began, he's seemed a different player on offense, sometimes almost Blatche-like in the shots he settles for, but I've liked his overall game going back to his Orlando stint and, shooting aside, I have no reason to think his game isn't still at the level. Absent health issues, I have no reason to think Okafor isn't still a tough, savvy interior player and rebounder, and both have always seemed to be smart and solid team players and NBA citizens. It seems like most who object to this trade see similar: not bad players, just a bad, short sighted trade. Regardless, they're here now, and I'm not going to root against them, or any players acquired in subsequent trades.

Good stuff, monte.

I would be fine with McGuire at SF. Chris Singleton is better on shooting the three, but Dom was a better prospect IMO. Not to give WoW a pass but Mike Miller stayed injured and so did Jamison and Butler. WoW guys probably factored in Flip's previous coaching win percentages and just thought it would all come together with Foye and Miller. It didn't.

I like that you don't think Ariza or Okafor will change the development of the talent already on hand. I think young guys get better playing minutes and their attitudes and enthusiasm would be tied to personal, somewhat selfish goals. We will have to wait and see how they develop. Practice sure will be tougher now. Intelligent vets wouldn't seem to do anything but add to the mix. It is the contracts and not the characters involved we have objected to. The team is likely going to be better defensively.

I won't root against the new guys, either, monte. Another thing is I will continue to root for Wittman. He did a solid job and so far to me he seems like he's a good coach. The NBA is a player's league and it takes talent to win. Wittman has more depth now. Lets see what he does with it.

[VictorPage44]

If anything, his presence will make it harder for them to improve.

lmao

That's an interesting take.

[fishercob]

So here's something I was not expecting: The Wages of Wins Journal loves the trade for the Wizards.

I don't read it that often, so I don't know what to specifically make of much of the data, but it is interesting to see a stat blog laud this for the Wiz. The entire article is worth a read, but some notable excerpts:

The Wizards now have a much better looking squad than before. This trade gives them above average options at PG (Wall), SF (Ariza), PF (Nene,Vesely) and C (Okafor). Nene in particular is interesting.

After injury woes early in the season, Nene reverted to form with his new team playing at star level. Throw in the fact that he will be better at the 4 than the 5 and this is good news for Wizards fans.

Wall is playing like a young player coming into his own. His play shows flashes of brilliance but also is inconsistent. Next year is where I would expect him to make the leap that young players do and he seems on the cusp of it. I also do not believe it was an accident that his level of play jumped when the roster around him got better.

Wall is entering the final two years of his contract and the Wizards really do need to find out what they have. The time then for the Wizards is now. They needed to build a winning team around their potential franchise player.

I believe they have. An emerging point guard, an effective swingman with experience in big games, size with talent.

So yes, Washington is a playoff team in the East next season. I think 45 wins is a reasonable target with the roster assembled. If Wall jumps a level they’ll beat that easily. Now I won’t do a full projection as of yet because they have an incomplete roster. In particular the shooting guard position is open and there are some very interesting names out there.

Ray Allen or James Harden anyone?

So, Nivek, nate33, payitforward, CCJ -- vocal dissenters who rely heavily on stats for their analysis -- does this make you feel any better?

No. It doesn't make me feel any better, it supports my stance on why the trade stinks. Note that the base their optimistic expectations on Wall and Nene, not Okafor and Ariza. And more importantly, they talk about the interesting names out there to fill the SG spot, but how are we supposed to acquire them when we have burned our cap space on bad contracts? Wouldn't we have been in much better position to acquire those players if we cut Lewis and amnestied Blatche?

You make it seem as though the optimism is in spite of Okafor and Ariza, which it is clearly not. The author seems to think that allowing Nene to be primarily a 4 is significant (it jibes with my long-held thought that Nene is a natural 4 who has played 5 because he's had to like Horford, etc).

Yes, he mentions Ray Allen and Harden. To the extent that acquiring either was/will be possible, this trade doesn't change that. Any Harden deal was going to be built around the #3 pick. That option still exists. Allen can be signed with the MLE. He's more likely to do so with Okafor and Ariza here than he would be if we had Lewis' dead money instead. I don't see him choosing DC in either scenario, though. If there's a great opportunity via creating more cap room, we can amnesty Blatche.

[BruceO]

Another reason I think those players work well for the wizards is John wall and possibly beal. Ariza with his ball handling deficiencies will be assisted on a lot more plays to make shot selection better. Add in Beal and he can be the dynamic scorer on the wing to take attention off ariza being a primary scorer. Emeka as well will benefit with being assisted more by John wall. He has a high fg percentage and he, nene and seraphin can rotate as low post threats. Low post threats can be greatly benefitted by an outside shooter to form an inside out threat which beal can provide. So in my eyes the team is being built correctly to play off each other both offensively and defensively. Most times you'd find one good defender for Ed to anchor a team, remember Haywood in his tenure here? But now a player can rely on the others..nene has emeka who's also smart, ariza can defend perimeter, beal and wall have potential.

If beal can rebound that might make him a more valuable player than Eric Gordon who can't. I willbe honest despite lack of shooting I'd be fine with mkg as well because he's a winner. I'd play ariza or crawford along side him and look for shooting elsewhere.i think another thing we may need is a backup pg who can shoot. Beal may be able to play that role but I'd like other options for spacing purposes. I'd also like a stretch four who can shoot. Possibly trade into perry jones territory because at the current projected draft slots he's a good deal. I'd do a deal similar to the seraphin and Kirk Hinrich one.

But Allen all I think the team is being built correctly. If mkg though wall, nene and himself is a playoff team. Add a healthy okafor and another perimeter defender and there's a lot of team i would take us in a series over in the east. And I'm pretty good at picking series winners. We can beat Orlando, Atlanta, new York, Chicago without rose. We'llbe around Indiana or Philly level with upside from the many players we dafted.

[DCZards]

Jason Reid comes-through again, glad he isn't a stenographer like most Washington sports reporters.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

Reid is paid to have an opinion on all things sports in DC and he's certainly entitled to his opinion. But for a more insightful analysis of the trade by a true Wizard fan and follower I refer you to doc's take over on the "optimism thread." Here's a few snippets.

"Something I'm not seeing, not being a billionaire with a business minded research squad working on my behalf. Some part of that may have to do with how many teams have actually already cleared cap space and will be bidding against each other over the next couple years, devaluing cap space for the short term, and earning old-style CBA contracts for the few non-mediocre free agents on the market."

"In other complements, Nene is notable for raising the defensive rebounding percentage of his teammates, boxing out well and using his width to seal multiple opponents from snatching the board. 'Meka should see a lift in his already solid rebounding stats. This team has lacked the ability to secure a board after stopping an opponent shot. First requirement of a running team is to secure the ball."

"Yeah okay we need improved shooting from Wall, and at the 2-guard position, and the 3-spot. True. But what we may lack in offensive finesse, I suspect fans will cheer our effort at both ends of the court. Today you hate it, but again at least with this roster they won't embarrass you with oncourt slack or defensive idiocy, and you won't have to worry about offcourt shenanigans."

[fishercob]

Video of the full (relatively short) press conference is here: http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/originals/

No "Mission Accomplished" brouhaha, no Ernie with "thank you all for coming" followed by his typical vomitous platitudes. Just the guys chatting pretty casually.

Okafor is very impressive. I think people are going to enjoy cheering for him and he will win a lot of people over.

Ariza seems like the higher risk that he'll flop. He smiles and says "I'm still trying to figure out what I can and can't do" whereas Mek knows himself well....

Okafor is very confident about his health. Says last year's difficulties where the result of a wacky season, mentions his durability beforehand.

Ariza mentions he knows how hard Mek works on his body, as well as his game. That kind of leadership should provide excellent example for Vesely, Wall, Seraphin, Singleton. it's one thing when coaches tell you to do it; it's another when you see your teammates doing it.

As mentioned before, Ariza is effusive in his praise of Wall. Says teams won't be able to go under screens on him this year.

I understand a lot of people are unhappy with this trade. I hope it doesn't prevent them from embracing these guys as Wizards and rooting for this team.

[tontoz]

If the Wizards didn't make the Nene deal and planned on letting McGee walk then this deal would make sense.

If the Wizards made the deal planning to make other trades then the deal could make sense.

Otherwise...