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Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

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IS IT TIME TO FIRE ERNIE GRUNFELD?

1) Yes, I believe it is time for EG to go now.
29
69%
2) Ted should let him go at the end of the season.
9
21%
3) No, Ted needs to give him more time..(DESPITE THE FACT ERNIE HAS BEEN GM SINCE 2003)
4
10%
 
Total votes: 42

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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1121 » by Dat2U » Tue Dec 3, 2013 4:49 pm

hands11 wrote:We will see what happens when we see what happens. Lots here have been predicting wrong


Says Mr. Wrong himself...

hands11 wrote:Wall will always likely be overpaid some given other PGs production. But this year he is likely a bargain. Personally, I don't think the new CBA lends itself toward overpaying a PG. There are to many other pieces you need to be a great team. Question is, could they really get away with anything other than maxing Wall given where the franchise had been and where they wanted to go? If not, they were going have to eventually get to the boarder or over the cap to be a really good team. But that's not that unusual for a top contending team. I don't think Ted will have a problem going over the cap when the time comes.


IMO paying Wall isn't the issue. Never really was to me. The 2nd half of last season, he showed enough to lead me to believe it wasn't a fluke. If Wall is going to play like a star, who cares what position he plays. That doesn't matter. What matters is that he continues his upward trend towards stardom.

hands11 wrote:As for EG, if they let him walk, EG will have compiled enough of a resume under Ted to separate what he did with Ted from what happened under Abe. If nothing else, he could get a gig as the guy you hire to tank and rebuild.


HA!!! Don't tell me your still on what "EG did under Ted" trip. I should pull up that old thread for some good laughs. I think the evidence is clear. Ernie is good at selling the farm to be competitive. Congrats to Ernie on using five straight drafts of drafting 6th or better (with three top 3 picks!) to get to a point where we can trade a 1st round pick for a rental to be competitive this year.

Ernie is not getting another GM job. Other front offices around the league like Ernie, but for all the wrong reasons.

hands11 wrote:Right now the key thing to focus on for me is how to they turn Booker, Kevin S, Singleton and maybe Glen and Maynor into complimentary bench players. I think that group is a little stale.


You mean lets somehow turn Ernie's trash into something useful? We'd probably need a new GM for that.

hands11 wrote:They are young enough with Wall, Beal, Otto and Ves to go with vets of Trevor A, Nene, Gortat, Webster and maybe bringing back Oakafor to have a solid core. They just need the right bench and that mostly about adding a PF and the right SG/PG.

Gotta see what Otto has. That is key right now. Plus they need some luck on who wants to resign here and for what. Trevor A at near MLE would really help.


That's fine and dandy until you realize Martell, Trevor & Otto all play the same position. Ves isn't any good. Okafor is on the Suns roster and may have to retire and Nene is constantly complaining about his bad wheels. All they need a new frontcourt and and backups at every position except SF. :-?

And we aren't resigning Ariza when we already have Webster & Porter locked up long term. At least common sense would say you don't.

hands11 wrote:Lots is up in the air, but they do have Wall and Beal. They can always clear cap and reboot around them.


Well, we have Wall. At least Ernie drafted him, right? Oh and I'm hopeful for Beal but add in the injuries and the inability to draw fouls and there are some big chinks in his armor. I can't quite mark him as ready for stardom.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1122 » by queridiculo » Tue Dec 3, 2013 4:55 pm

payitforward wrote:As I wrote in last night's game thread: this year...

"...we have achieved average, and we should be able to sustain it. We should or at least we may even be a little better than average.

"And we've gotten there in the 4th year of a rebuild on the basis of a #1 pick, two #3 picks, a #6 pick, 3-4 other mid-round one picks, and the acquisition of a $13m-a-year player, a $14m-a-year player, and a rental player whom we'll likely re-sign for $11m+ and for whose services this year we will have given up a mid-round 1 pick."

Anyone who thinks that Ernie's "rebuild" is worth a new contract is a fool. That includes Ted.

My hope is that if we have a good year, Ernie -- who is @65 -- will retire!


Summed up nicely, though it's worth noting that Washington has $41.5 million committed to next year with 5 players signed, and one worthless backup PG with a player option.

In 4 years of rebuilding Grunfeld essentially shot his wad to make a playoff appearance in the one year where every other team is trying their best to position themselves for the most ping pong balls.

When it's all said and done, this team will be due for another rebuild as soon as two years from now, only this time they will neither have the picks nor the salary cap space.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1123 » by Kanyewest » Tue Dec 3, 2013 5:57 pm

queridiculo wrote:
payitforward wrote:As I wrote in last night's game thread: this year...

"...we have achieved average, and we should be able to sustain it. We should or at least we may even be a little better than average.

"And we've gotten there in the 4th year of a rebuild on the basis of a #1 pick, two #3 picks, a #6 pick, 3-4 other mid-round one picks, and the acquisition of a $13m-a-year player, a $14m-a-year player, and a rental player whom we'll likely re-sign for $11m+ and for whose services this year we will have given up a mid-round 1 pick."

Anyone who thinks that Ernie's "rebuild" is worth a new contract is a fool. That includes Ted.

My hope is that if we have a good year, Ernie -- who is @65 -- will retire!


Summed up nicely, though it's worth noting that Washington has $41.5 million committed to next year with 5 players signed, and one worthless backup PG with a player option.

In 4 years of rebuilding Grunfeld essentially shot his wad to make a playoff appearance in the one year where every other team is trying their best to position themselves for the most ping pong balls.

When it's all said and done, this team will be due for another rebuild as soon as two years from now, only this time they will neither have the picks nor the salary cap space.


The funny thing is that teams that are trying to be where the the Wizards currently are. The Knicks and Nets are among the worst teams in the league who prior to the season each had championship expectations and they don't even have a first round pick. The Cavs who are positioning themselves for a run at LeBron and trying to be competitive are struggling. Even the Bucks positioned themselves to be mediocre with all of their offseason moves - signing Zaza Pachulia.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1124 » by montestewart » Tue Dec 3, 2013 6:58 pm

The Pachulia signing was specifically for when the Bucks meet the Wizards in the playoffs.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1125 » by TGW » Tue Dec 3, 2013 8:54 pm

The Wizards get to .500, and it only took 4 years. And some folks are proclaiming victory..what a joke.
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1126 » by mohammed10 » Tue Dec 3, 2013 9:30 pm

TGW wrote:The Wizards get to .500, and it only took 4 years. And some folks are proclaiming victory..what a joke.


Yeah, let's not extend EG's contract just yet. We're only 18 games in. Let's see what the other 66 have in store for this group.
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1127 » by Hypnotizer » Tue Dec 3, 2013 9:44 pm

mohammed10 wrote:
Yeah, let's not extend EG's contract just yet. We're only 18 games in. Let's see what the other 66 have in store for this group.


Why not 64?
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1128 » by montestewart » Tue Dec 3, 2013 10:13 pm

Hypnotizer wrote:
mohammed10 wrote:
Yeah, let's not extend EG's contract just yet. We're only 18 games in. Let's see what the other 66 have in store for this group.


Why not 64?

Magic beans made the season grow. It'll probably we two more losses.

Many of the EG "haters" (sometimes known as "The People Who Are Not High") predicted a record in the .500 range (36-46 wins) so the team being at or near .500 doesn't give reason for a reassessment of our "hate" or lack of drugs. It's pretty hard to see how they can go too far with their setup. When a team could desperately use prime time Ruffin, when Crittendon in orange would be a better backup PG option, well, that team's not ready for prime time.

If EG can figure out a way to trade himself (taking on a bad contract and throwing in a pick, of course) I'll take back all my negative comments, because he will have finally made a trade with the long game on mind.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1129 » by mohammed10 » Tue Dec 3, 2013 10:18 pm

Hypnotizer wrote:
mohammed10 wrote:
Yeah, let's not extend EG's contract just yet. We're only 18 games in. Let's see what the other 66 have in store for this group.


Why not 64?


OK, ok - so clearly math is not my strong suit. You got me...

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With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1130 » by hands11 » Tue Dec 3, 2013 10:44 pm

FAH1223 wrote:Hands, we have no Center prospect of the future.

We have no backup PG.

And we could use a PF.

Bad drafting and bad cap management there.



Right.

Except for the bad cap management. We don't know that yet.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1131 » by hands11 » Tue Dec 3, 2013 11:05 pm

payitforward wrote:As I wrote in last night's game thread: this year...

"...we have achieved average, and we should be able to sustain it. We should or at least we may even be a little better than average.

"And we've gotten there in the 4th year of a rebuild on the basis of a #1 pick, two #3 picks, a #6 pick, 3-4 other mid-round one picks, and the acquisition of a $13m-a-year player, a $14m-a-year player, and a rental player whom we'll likely re-sign for $11m+ and for whose services this year we will have given up a mid-round 1 pick."

Anyone who thinks that Ernie's "rebuild" is worth a new contract is a fool. That includes Ted.

My hope is that if we have a good year, Ernie -- who is @65 -- will retire!


I thought end results were all that mattered to you.

7-2 run. 9-9 and 3rd place in the East. Don't go changing the metrics now that they look better.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1132 » by DCZards » Tue Dec 3, 2013 11:52 pm

hands11 wrote:
payitforward wrote:As I wrote in last night's game thread: this year...

"...we have achieved average, and we should be able to sustain it. We should or at least we may even be a little better than average.

"And we've gotten there in the 4th year of a rebuild on the basis of a #1 pick, two #3 picks, a #6 pick, 3-4 other mid-round one picks, and the acquisition of a $13m-a-year player, a $14m-a-year player, and a rental player whom we'll likely re-sign for $11m+ and for whose services this year we will have given up a mid-round 1 pick."

Anyone who thinks that Ernie's "rebuild" is worth a new contract is a fool. That includes Ted.

My hope is that if we have a good year, Ernie -- who is @65 -- will retire!


I thought end results were all that mattered to you.

7-2 run. 9-9 and 3rd place in the East. Don't go changing the metrics now that they look better.


Hands does make a good point, pif. I thought you were a cold-blooded numbers guy...nothing else matters. And since, as you often point out, none of us has a crystal ball, do we really know whether the Zards will be an average or above average team going forward...whether Gortat will resign for $11 mil. Even at $11 mil, Gortat will probably be far more productive--and a bigger factor in the Zards getting to the next level--than the mid-round 1 pick they gave up for him.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1133 » by FreeBalling » Wed Dec 4, 2013 1:47 am

nate33 wrote:
FreeBalling wrote:To be fair here, shouldn't Ernie reap the rewards of success as a GM? The team is playing good defense and starting to gel together.

Lots of people including myself on this board have been very vocal calling for Ernie to be removed.

I have two current issues with Ernie.

1.) MAXING Wall before elite production. IMO - he's never going to be elite, all-star, yes.
Failure here will cause us to SUCK for years. Good reason to fire EG.

2.) Gortat - Ernie has to get him resigned or it's a bad trade. Good reason to fire EG.

Let's say we finish above .500 this year. I think our record will attract other FA's that might not come to a bottom feeder. That's good for our future.

No. Because Ernie has built an unsustainable roster that is good only because it pays big money to role players and it benefits from 2 no-brainer high picks who are temporarily outperforming their salary because they are on rookie deals.

The cracks will start to show next year when Wall starts being paid his max salary. We will be able to keep our core 6 players and Porter together, but the rest of the roster will have to be minimum salary guys, which means no depth. (Admittedly, this won't be a big change because we have no depth now thanks to the fact that Ernie's Kids all stink. We will merely be replacing Ernie's Kids with D-Leaguers and walk-ons.)

The spit really hits the fan in 2016 when Beal is up for an extension. Basically, we will lose Nene and we will have no way of replacing him.

The team you see right now is at it's peak. Maybe we win 50 games in a pathetic East if we stay reasonably healthy. We will plateau as Nene and Gortat's decline offset any improvement out of Wall and Beal. Nene's healthy is sure to be a big concern going forward. We will never get much better. We are pretty much the Atlanta Hawks now. Respectable, but never a threat to compete. Only we are pushing the luxtax just to maintain it.


NBA salary cap for 2012-13 season set at $58.044 million
The minimum team salary, which is set at 85 percent of the Salary Cap, is $49.337 million for the 2012-13 season

The tax level for the 2012-13 season has been set at $70.307 million. Any team whose team salary exceeds that figure will pay a $1 tax for each $1 by which it exceeds $70.307 million.


Red is over the 70 million[color=#00BF00] Green is over the 58 million and black is below the 58 million
[/color]

TEAM 2012-13 SALARY 2012-13 CAP HIT O/U CAP
1. Los Angeles Lakers $100,464,042 $114,415,751 $56,371,751 over
2. Brooklyn Nets $84,891,452 $83,511,726 $25,467,726 over
3. Miami Heat $84,177,641 $85,032,030 $27,750,225 over
4. New York Knicks $80,921,216 $82,771,471 $24,727,471 over
5. Chicago Bulls $74,835,982 $75,257,228 $17,213,228 over
6. Memphis Grizzlies $74,153,577 $84,593,533 $26,549,533 over
7. Boston Celtics $74,010,526 $93,750,666 $35,706,666 over
8. Golden State Warriors $71,155,896 $71,155,896 $13,111,896 over
9. Los Angeles Clippers $69,986,343 $72,958,798 $14,914,798 over
10. San Antonio Spurs $69,157,864 $79,472,420 $21,428,420 over
11. Oklahoma City Thunder $68,626,455 $71,416,455 $13,372,455 over
12. Indiana Pacers $67,778,248 $67,532,397 $9,488,397 over
13. Detroit Pistons $67,725,875 $72,756,230 $14,712,230 over
14. Utah Jazz $67,070,390 $78,555,390 $20,511,390 over
15. Atlanta Hawks $66,940,683 $71,151,165 $13,107,165 over

16. Philadelphia 76ers $64,932,987 $64,195,433 $6,151,433 over
17. Orlando Magic $64,446,687 $65,301,076 $7,257,076 over
18. New Orleans Hornets $64,245,043 $63,876,266 $5,832,266 over
19. Denver Nuggets $63,970,222 $70,275,719 $12,231,719 over
20. Milwaukee Bucks $63,435,206 $62,562,548 $4,518,548 over
21. Toronto Raptors $61,319,032 $61,288,301 $3,244,301 over
22. Minnesota Timberwolves $61,214,406 $61,214,406 $3,170,406 over
23. Dallas Mavericks $61,036,121 $60,169,052 $2,125,052 over
24. Washington Wizards $59,084,176 $60,965,163 $2,921,163 over

25. Sacramento Kings $57,924,631 $57,924,631 $119,349 under
26. Charlotte Bobcats $57,465,324 $57,465,324 $578,676 under
27. Portland Trail Blazers $56,040,428 $56,040,428 $2,003,572 under
28. Phoenix Suns $52,094,834 $51,597,042 $6,446,958 under
29. Houston Rockets $50,199,345 $51,053,734 $6,990,266 under
30. Cleveland Cavaliers $47,666,580 $51,941,580 $6,102,420 under

Nate it seems that other owners are willing to pay for talent. We are talking about owners with hundreds/billions of dollars and you want to nickel and dime me? We just paid John Wall Ten's of millions for future production. Keep in mind it's not the rearview mirror production, but future ELITE production not yet seen.

Most, if not all league owners are paying for future production to gain revenue. Ted is not anywhere close to spending in the top ten of owners and people on this board are talking about spending an extra 1 to 2 million for a bench guy. The league owners are willing to spend to win and its clear by the numbers above. Players have choices...Play for a winner or a team that sucks. Do you think Nene would have come here had it not been for a trade? That's why I'm saying we have to capitalize on a winning season to bring in FA's

All GM's must have a contingency plan, even if they are not named EG.

If you were a sought after NBA talent where would you play? Keep in mind that teams with a chance to win a ring get special consideration by players.

You can spin it any way you want. The above team salaries speaks for itself.


EDIT: Teams 25-30 had no chance of making the playoffs... Remember Nene comments about sucking. Most if not all of these NBA players have been winners their whole life. Who wants to play for a sucky team.

Life offers choices.


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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1134 » by hands11 » Wed Dec 4, 2013 2:42 am

Speaking of how do you keep it going and the cap, how does Indy do that?

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/indiana.htm

How do they keep Lance ? How much is he going to cost ? Specially if he plays big in the playoffs. What if he leaves, then what. They are already at 65M without signing him.

Are they going to let Granger walk and get nothing ?

And who is their PF of the future. West is 33 and Scola is also 33

No path to keep it going without busting the cap to keep Lance and they still have no path to replace West and Scola.

And they gave up their first in 2014 for Scola who again is 33

What a dead end franchise.

Shell we review the dead end Miami Heat next or the cap busted dead end Knicks ? Maybe the mega cap busted dead end Nets.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1135 » by nate33 » Wed Dec 4, 2013 3:17 am

FreeBalling wrote:NBA salary cap for 2012-13 season set at $58.044 million
The minimum team salary, which is set at 85 percent of the Salary Cap, is $49.337 million for the 2012-13 season

The tax level for the 2012-13 season has been set at $70.307 million. Any team whose team salary exceeds that figure will pay a $1 tax for each $1 by which it exceeds $70.307 million.


Red is over the 70 million[color=#00BF00] Green is over the 58 million and black is below the 58 million
[/color]

TEAM 2012-13 SALARY 2012-13 CAP HIT O/U CAP
1. Los Angeles Lakers $100,464,042 $114,415,751 $56,371,751 over
2. Brooklyn Nets $84,891,452 $83,511,726 $25,467,726 over
3. Miami Heat $84,177,641 $85,032,030 $27,750,225 over
4. New York Knicks $80,921,216 $82,771,471 $24,727,471 over
5. Chicago Bulls $74,835,982 $75,257,228 $17,213,228 over
6. Memphis Grizzlies $74,153,577 $84,593,533 $26,549,533 over
7. Boston Celtics $74,010,526 $93,750,666 $35,706,666 over
8. Golden State Warriors $71,155,896 $71,155,896 $13,111,896 over
9. Los Angeles Clippers $69,986,343 $72,958,798 $14,914,798 over
10. San Antonio Spurs $69,157,864 $79,472,420 $21,428,420 over
11. Oklahoma City Thunder $68,626,455 $71,416,455 $13,372,455 over
12. Indiana Pacers $67,778,248 $67,532,397 $9,488,397 over
13. Detroit Pistons $67,725,875 $72,756,230 $14,712,230 over
14. Utah Jazz $67,070,390 $78,555,390 $20,511,390 over
15. Atlanta Hawks $66,940,683 $71,151,165 $13,107,165 over

16. Philadelphia 76ers $64,932,987 $64,195,433 $6,151,433 over
17. Orlando Magic $64,446,687 $65,301,076 $7,257,076 over
18. New Orleans Hornets $64,245,043 $63,876,266 $5,832,266 over
19. Denver Nuggets $63,970,222 $70,275,719 $12,231,719 over
20. Milwaukee Bucks $63,435,206 $62,562,548 $4,518,548 over
21. Toronto Raptors $61,319,032 $61,288,301 $3,244,301 over
22. Minnesota Timberwolves $61,214,406 $61,214,406 $3,170,406 over
23. Dallas Mavericks $61,036,121 $60,169,052 $2,125,052 over
24. Washington Wizards $59,084,176 $60,965,163 $2,921,163 over

25. Sacramento Kings $57,924,631 $57,924,631 $119,349 under
26. Charlotte Bobcats $57,465,324 $57,465,324 $578,676 under
27. Portland Trail Blazers $56,040,428 $56,040,428 $2,003,572 under
28. Phoenix Suns $52,094,834 $51,597,042 $6,446,958 under
29. Houston Rockets $50,199,345 $51,053,734 $6,990,266 under
30. Cleveland Cavaliers $47,666,580 $51,941,580 $6,102,420 under

Nate it seems that other owners are willing to pay for talent. We are talking about owners with hundreds/billions of dollars and you want to nickel and dime me? We just paid John Wall Ten's of millions for future production. Keep in mind it's not the rearview mirror production, but future ELITE production not yet seen.

Most, if not all league owners are paying for future production to gain revenue. Ted is not anywhere close to spending in the top ten of owners and people on this board are talking about spending an extra 1 to 2 million for a bench guy. The league owners are willing to spend to win and its clear by the numbers above. Players have choices...Play for a winner or a team that sucks. Do you think Nene would have come here had it not been for a trade? That's why I'm saying we have to capitalize on a winning season to bring in FA's

All GM's must have a contingency plan, even if they are not named EG.

If you were a sought after NBA talent where would you play? Keep in mind that teams with a chance to win a ring get special consideration by players.

You can spin it any way you want. The above team salaries speaks for itself.


EDIT: Teams 25-30 had no chance of making the playoffs... Remember Nene comments about sucking. Most if not all of these NBA players have been winners their whole life. Who wants to play for a sucky team.

Life offers choices.


An intelligent heart acquires knowledge, and the ear of the wise seeks knowledge ~ Proverbs 18:15

First of all, your coloring scheme seems to be off. If the luxtax is $70.3M, then only the top 8 teams are paying the luxtax. And only the World Champion Heat plus the 2 biggest media markets (NY and LA) are exceeding the luxtax by more than $5M (when the penalties really start to hurt). Every other team acts with financial responsibility and stays below the tax.

Secondly, It's not even a question about willingness to spend. Ted has got a payroll of $70M this year, and my guess is that Ted would exceed the luxtax to hold a legit championship contender together. The issue here is that the CBA restricts you from easily ramping up your payroll. We can't just go out and sign a bunch of max-caliber superstars. There's a cap. Once you get to it, the only thing you can do is add MLE players and resign existing players with Bird Rights. And when you're over the luxtax, you can't even use the full MLE, you can only use a watered down version of the MLE (about $3M a year, IIRC).

The point here is that a good GM doesn't just accumulate good talent. He does so at a good price so that he has flexibility in the future to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1136 » by nate33 » Wed Dec 4, 2013 3:25 am

hands11 wrote:Speaking of how do you keep it going and the cap, how does Indy do that?

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/indiana.htm

How do they keep Lance ? How much is he going to cost ? Specially if he plays big in the playoffs. What if he leaves, then what. They are already at 65M without signing him.

Are they going to let Granger walk and get nothing ?

And who is their PF of the future. West is 33 and Scola is also 33

No path to keep it going without busting the cap to keep Lance and they still have no path to replace West and Scola.

And they gave up their first in 2014 for Scola who again is 33

What a dead end franchise.

Shell we review the dead end Miami Heat next or the cap busted dead end Knicks ? Maybe the mega cap busted dead end Nets.

I don't understand your point.

If we're on pace to win 70 games, then, yes, you exceed the luxtax if necessary. Heck, Indy doesn't even have to do that. It should be easy enough to offer someone cash and a late 2nd to take Copeland off their hands.

Brooklyn and New York are inept franchises that may actually be run by worse executives than EG. That hardly means EG is a good GM.

If you want to see how it's done, check out San Antonio. It's truly remarkable. They're going to have max cap room next summer even though their top 7 players (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Splitter, Green, Leonard, Bellineli) are under contract. Yes, you heard that right. They're going to be capable of ADDING a MAX PLAYER to their Finals contenting core. Now THAT is cap management. (Note, there's a rumor going around that they are eyeing Gortat. So that could be a problem for us.)
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1137 » by Nivek » Wed Dec 4, 2013 3:34 am

I wrote about this topic a few weeks ago over at the blog. I think nate is right about the Wizards basically peaking now. They're in a situation where they don't have a real way to ADD talent. Signing a "brand name" (high-priced) free agent will mean the departure of players that are part of their current core. There's just no way around it. This offseason they'll have to choose between re-signing their key free agents (Gortat and Ariza) or REPLACING them with other players. And, they probably won't have a first round pick next year.

Plus, there's no guarantee they can keep either of those guys -- they're both unrestricted free agents.

Any improvement the team makes will come from a) the marginal difference between Gortat, Ariza and the team's other departing free agents and the new players they're able to acquire, and/or b) better production from the young players currently on the roster.

One of the issues I addressed in my blog post was this: Why would a free agent sign with the Wizards? He cannot JOIN a playoff team -- his arrival will mean the departure of Gortat and/or Ariza. At best, he can only replace one (or both) of those guys. The team will still lack depth of talent. I guess the hope has to be that free agents might be attracted to the notion of playing with young players like Wall, Beal and Porter. That could happen. But, it's a narrow path to becoming a contender. Unnecessarily narrow, in my view.

The words that come to mind when I think of the team Grunfeld has constructed (and its long-term prospects): "house of cards."
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1138 » by Hypnotizer » Wed Dec 4, 2013 4:33 am

hands11 wrote:
What a dead end franchise.


Not if they become champions this season.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1139 » by verbal8 » Wed Dec 4, 2013 5:31 am

nate33 wrote:If you want to see how it's done, check out San Antonio. It's truly remarkable. They're going to have max cap room next summer even though their top 7 players (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Splitter, Green, Leonard, Bellineli) are under contract. Yes, you heard that right. They're going to be capable of ADDING a MAX PLAYER to their Finals contenting core. Now THAT is cap management. (Note, there's a rumor going around that they are eyeing Gortat. So that could be a problem for us.)

Wow, I hadn't realized they were in such a strong cap situation. Monroe might make a lot of sense for them. He would probably pair well with Splitter.
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Re: Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing 

Post#1140 » by JonathanJoseph » Wed Dec 4, 2013 8:48 am

nate33 wrote:
FreeBalling wrote:To be fair here, shouldn't Ernie reap the rewards of success as a GM? The team is playing good defense and starting to gel together.

Lots of people including myself on this board have been very vocal calling for Ernie to be removed.

I have two current issues with Ernie.

1.) MAXING Wall before elite production. IMO - he's never going to be elite, all-star, yes.
Failure here will cause us to SUCK for years. Good reason to fire EG.

2.) Gortat - Ernie has to get him resigned or it's a bad trade. Good reason to fire EG.

Let's say we finish above .500 this year. I think our record will attract other FA's that might not come to a bottom feeder. That's good for our future.

No. Because Ernie has built an unsustainable roster that is good only because it pays big money to role players and it benefits from 2 no-brainer high picks who are temporarily outperforming their salary because they are on rookie deals.

The cracks will start to show next year when Wall starts being paid his max salary. We will be able to keep our core 6 players and Porter together, but the rest of the roster will have to be minimum salary guys, which means no depth. (Admittedly, this won't be a big change because we have no depth now thanks to the fact that Ernie's Kids all stink. We will merely be replacing Ernie's Kids with D-Leaguers and walk-ons.)

The spit really hits the fan in 2016 when Beal is up for an extension. Basically, we will lose Nene and we will have no way of replacing him.

The team you see right now is at it's peak. Maybe we win 50 games in a pathetic East if we stay reasonably healthy. We will plateau as Nene and Gortat's decline offset any improvement out of Wall and Beal. Nene's healthy is sure to be a big concern going forward. We will never get much better. We are pretty much the Atlanta Hawks now. Respectable, but never a threat to compete. Only we are pushing the luxtax just to maintain it.


+1

And another bargain, potential all star is what we probably sacrificed in order to max out in this bizarre NBA season. Without Nene, Gortat, Ariza and Webster this team would absolutely be in the running for a high pick and enough cap space to start whispering sweet nothings to Kevin Durant.
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