Official Trade Thread - Part XXV

[ozthegandp]

i have a feeling gortat wont resign with us. there will be higher profile teams interested in him. decent center's arent exactly a dime a dozen.

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If we make him a fair offer and his starting job is there for next year, I bet he stays. Players hate leaving comfortable situations where they think they've got a chance to win. Too much risk involved in moving. And Gortat settled in here immediately. Thing would have to absolutely tank for him to want out.

settled in how? basketball wise or life wise? did he buy a house? is he invested in the dc area? if not he can easily get up and leave.

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[ozthegandp]

and the teams already rumored to be interested in him include the lakers and san Antonio. and Miami has been trying to upgrade its center situation for yrs. he's going to pick us over the laker's and their gazillion dollars in cap space this summer?

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[stevemcqueen1]

and the teams already rumored to be interested in him include the lakers and san Antonio. and Miami has been trying to upgrade its center situation for yrs. he's going to pick us over the laker's and their gazillion dollars in cap space this summer?

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The Lakers only have four players under contract next summer and are already at 34 million in commitments. They don't have a ton of cap room to burn. If they want to do something stupid like use most of their cap to offer Gortat 15+ million a year, then yeah, he could leave us for them.

But if the offers are close, he wouldn't pick LA over staying. Players in good situations don't usually leave if they get a fair offer.

[stevemcqueen1]

Also, there is no way San Antonio or Miami will be able to afford Gortat without trading for him unless Tim Duncan retires. San Antonio isn't going to cut Tony Parker. And if Duncan decides to play next season, he'll pick up his option. SA will be at the cap before they can think about bringing in outside FAs. They'll probably just keep this team together and see what Duncan does after next season.

Miami is no threat to anyone in FA. They've got 7 contracts, 6 of which are forms of player options, and are over the tax line. If they want any notable FA, they'll have to trade one of the big 3.

[AFM]

One of Porter, Webster, and Ariza has to go. No use in having 2 great SFs AND a #3 pick. Didn't understand the pick after we resigned Martell. Don't understand it now. Either trade Ariza or Porter.

[ozthegandp]

we'll see. i think he's leaving.

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[stevemcqueen1]

Problem is you won't see anything from Porter unless somebody gets injured because there aren't any minutes left for him.

We should deal Ariza. He's expiring and should be worth something. We're going to have to take a risk and play Porter. But that's why we drafted him #3 overall. We're not contending this season, if we take a step back for a few months because we dealt Ariza, it won't kill us.

Amen. Investment was made. Let's see what we have. Don't be scared to judge your investment. Learn to short our sell high.

It's like - if you believed in Blackberry, you didn't sell all your Apple stock to buy RIMM. You bought little bits of RIMM and waited for it to show improvement before going all in. Thankfully, you held on to Apple since it kept on doing well while RIMM bricked.

Yeah but Ariza definitely isn't Apple and we didn't buy Porter in little pieces. We picked him #3 overall. We're invested.

If the motivation for holding onto Ariza is mostly just fear of taking a step back this season, that's not a good enough reason to keep him. If it's also to keep his expiring for ourselves to use on another position in FA this summer, then that's a little better reason. But still not a great one when you factor in Gortat's deal. Having Porter miss most of his rookie season wastes an entire season of valuable development time. And Ariza is more valuable to us as a trade asset than an expiring contract.

[stevemcqueen1]

One of Porter, Webster, and Ariza has to go. No use in having 2 great SFs AND a #3 pick. Didn't understand the pick after we resigned Martell. Don't understand it now. Either trade Ariza or Porter.

Yep. And it's not really much of a choice. Of course you trade Ariza. Brand new #3 overall pick vs. expiring contract. Extending Webster made dealing Ariza possible.

[Nivek]

I still think this front office is basically going to keep the core group together after the season. Re-sign Gortat for 4 years and $48 million; re-sign Ariza for 4 years and $28 million; and re-sign Booker for 3 years and $15 million. Give or take a couple million in either direction for each of those guys. Then use the MLE to add one or more of a backup PG and another big.

Can they even afford to do that? Wouldn't they be right up against the tax line if they resign Gortat & Ariza to market value deals?

Yes, they can afford all that. Salary cap is being estimated to go up to about $62.9 million for next season. Luxury tax threshold would rise to about $75.3 million. Here are what would be the starting salaries for the scenario I laid out:

- Gortat -- $10.8 million
- Ariza -- $6.3 million
- Booker -- $4.7 million
- MLE -- $5.3 million

Ariza would be taking a salary cut in this scenario, but he seems like the kind of guy who would get multiple MLE offers. Staying with the Wizards would likely be his most lucrative option.

In what I'm theorizing the team will do, Vesely, Seraphin, Singleton and Temple would be gone. They'd have 10 players under contract (Wall, Beal, Nene, Gortat, Webster, Ariza, Porter, Booker, Maynor, Rice) BEFORE using the MLE at a total cost of $65.7 million. Use the MLE (perhaps splitting it to sign a couple players) and they'd still be $4.3 million under the luxury tax threshold.

Things would be a little tighter for 2015-16, but they should still have enough space under the luxury tax threshold to sign their draft picks and some minimum salary roster fillers. Nene's salary would drop off in 2016-17, which is when Beal would be due an extension.

[Nivek]

^^^ The above is assuming that Gortat and Ariza want to re-sign with the Wizards. They may prefer to go elsewhere.

[nuposse04]

^^^ The above is assuming that Gortat and Ariza want to re-sign with the Wizards. They may prefer to go elsewhere.

If we make the playoffs I'm pretty sure Gortat wouldn't mind staying here. Lakers are a non factor IMO because it will be hard for them to make the playoffs within the coming years. That and I think the Lakers first choice ought to be Hawes (fits pringles spacing me thinks). I'm pretty sure Ariza walks regardless of what we do. Unless we upset Mia/Ind in some wacky alternate reality.

I'm still saying ernie should do Singleton+2nd rounder for Pierre Jackson RIGHT NOW. We'd have a cheap player who could potentially stabilize so many things for us. It isn't a huge risk so why not take it?

[Nivek]

I still think this front office is basically going to keep the core group together after the season. Re-sign Gortat for 4 years and $48 million; re-sign Ariza for 4 years and $28 million; and re-sign Booker for 3 years and $15 million. Give or take a couple million in either direction for each of those guys. Then use the MLE to add one or more of a backup PG and another big.

At this point, I don't see Gortat making that kind of money this summer. 10 million per year seems like a high bid.

Bigs get paid, and I think Gortat will. Especially with the amount of cap space teams have available. Gortat will get more than $10 million per season.

I also don't see us keeping Ariza. Doesn't make sense to do it after drafting Porter.

When did making sense become a consideration for the Wizards? While I agree with you to an extent, I think Grunfeld/Wittman will want Ariza back.

And yes, I do expect Grunfeld to be the GM and Wittman to be the coach next season. I think Leonsis will give them extensions -- 2 or 3 years for each.

[Rafael122]

^^^ The above is assuming that Gortat and Ariza want to re-sign with the Wizards. They may prefer to go elsewhere.

If we make the playoffs I'm pretty sure Gortat wouldn't mind staying here. Lakers are a non factor IMO because it will be hard for them to make the playoffs within the coming years. That and I think the Lakers first choice ought to be Hawes (fits pringles spacing me thinks). I'm pretty sure Ariza walks regardless of what we do. Unless we upset Mia/Ind in some wacky alternate reality.

I'm still saying ernie should do Singleton+2nd rounder for Pierre Jackson RIGHT NOW. We'd have a cheap player who could potentially stabilize so many things for us. It isn't a huge risk so why not take it?

You're assuming OKC is eager to move Pierre Jackson.

[nuposse04]

^^^ The above is assuming that Gortat and Ariza want to re-sign with the Wizards. They may prefer to go elsewhere.

If we make the playoffs I'm pretty sure Gortat wouldn't mind staying here. Lakers are a non factor IMO because it will be hard for them to make the playoffs within the coming years. That and I think the Lakers first choice ought to be Hawes (fits pringles spacing me thinks). I'm pretty sure Ariza walks regardless of what we do. Unless we upset Mia/Ind in some wacky alternate reality.

I'm still saying ernie should do Singleton+2nd rounder for Pierre Jackson RIGHT NOW. We'd have a cheap player who could potentially stabilize so many things for us. It isn't a huge risk so why not take it?

You're assuming OKC is eager to move Pierre Jackson.

you're thinking of reggie jackson bruh

[Rafael122]

If we make the playoffs I'm pretty sure Gortat wouldn't mind staying here. Lakers are a non factor IMO because it will be hard for them to make the playoffs within the coming years. That and I think the Lakers first choice ought to be Hawes (fits pringles spacing me thinks). I'm pretty sure Ariza walks regardless of what we do. Unless we upset Mia/Ind in some wacky alternate reality.

I'm still saying ernie should do Singleton+2nd rounder for Pierre Jackson RIGHT NOW. We'd have a cheap player who could potentially stabilize so many things for us. It isn't a huge risk so why not take it?

You're assuming OKC is eager to move Pierre Jackson.

you're thinking of reggie jackson bruh

HA! I got my two Jackson's confused.

[fishercob]

Happens all the time.

[mohammed10]

Looks like Kobe just went down with a fractured left tibia..out 6 weeks.

- See more at: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1261508&p=37914057#p37914057

Hello Tank!

To keep their slim/fading playoff hopes alive, do they pull the trigger on a trade?

* Paging Mr. Grunfeld, Mr. Kupchak is on line 2 about Trevor Ariza *

[Ruzious]

Amen. Investment was made. Let's see what we have. Don't be scared to judge your investment. Learn to short our sell high.

It's like - if you believed in Blackberry, you didn't sell all your Apple stock to buy RIMM. You bought little bits of RIMM and waited for it to show improvement before going all in. Thankfully, you held on to Apple since it kept on doing well while RIMM bricked.

Yeah but Ariza definitely isn't Apple and we didn't buy Porter in little pieces. We picked him #3 overall. We're invested.

If the motivation for holding onto Ariza is mostly just fear of taking a step back this season, that's not a good enough reason to keep him. If it's also to keep his expiring for ourselves to use on another position in FA this summer, then that's a little better reason. But still not a great one when you factor in Gortat's deal. Having Porter miss most of his rookie season wastes an entire season of valuable development time. And Ariza is more valuable to us as a trade asset than an expiring contract.

I don't see it that way. Giving minutes to someone who hasn't earned them is not a smart way to develop a player. There will be minutes available if Porter earns them in practice - Ariza or no Ariza. Webster is already playing minutes at the 2 - and that can - and should - be expanded. Ariza can - and probably should - play more minutes at the 4. And injuries happen. Webster has had back problems on and off throughout his career - I don't think we should expect him to stay healthy all season - and we saw him physically fall apart at the end of last season. Cream always rises to the top - if Porter's got it, the pt will come.

[Rafael122]

Looks like Kobe just went down with a fractured left tibia..out 6 weeks.

- See more at: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1261508&p=37914057#p37914057

Hello Tank!

To keep their slim/fading playoff hopes alive, do they pull the trigger on a trade?

* Paging Mr. Grunfeld, Mr. Kupchak is on line 2 about Trevor Ariza *

I proposed a trade a few pages back centered around Ariza and scraps for Gasol, Meeks, and Farmar. It would improve every aspect of our team while helping them tank and get a quality piece they can keep long term.

I think it was Ariza/Maynor/Harrington/Singleton/Seraphin for Meeks/Gasol/Farmar, or something. Basically it looks lopsided (5 for 3) b/c Gasol makes $19 mil this year.

[mhd]

Ariza has much more value as a S&T then as an expiring contract. No team is going to trade a 2014 1st for a rent a player (except our idiot GM).

I agree that PT should be earned. Porter needs to show in practice that he's better than Webster & Ariza. If not, then that he should sit. You are not entitled to PT.