Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[payitforward]

Meeks player option for 18-19 is a crime against humanity.

WHY!!!!! Does he give every scrub off the street THEM the option? OMFG!!!

Meeks may have some hot-streaks here and there, but Smith & Meeks should have their final year be team options.

Guys, lets stick with the Mahinmi contract and trading out 2017 1st for the criticisms. Meeks, Smith, and Scott's play will exceed their contract value....

On his career, Meeks is certainly a player well worth the salary he's earning w/ us. So far, he's played at a pretty low level, but... it's only 126 minutes! That's way too small a sample to have any big reaction to it. To me, the question is only whether he's healthy. Assuming he is, then signing him was a perfectly good move. Even his option is fine w/ me.

As to Mike Scott, it would be no surprise if pcbothwei is right & his play this season exceeds his contract value. He's a veteran minimum player; it doesn't take much productivity to make a player worth minimum $$. The problem w/ Scott is that he is taking up a roster spot where you'd really like to have a young player w/ development in his future -- i.e. a guy like Jordan Bell. Signing a player like Mike Scott for a year does nothing to build your team, obviously.

Jason Smith is a different matter. He's making 3 times as much as Scott & 60% more than Meeks. When we signed him a year ago I was shocked; he'd been absolutely terrible his entire career. But then, last year he had his best season ever --& by a lot! He posted a TS% way beyond anything in his history (& it wasn't just his 3 pt. % -- he had the highest 2 pt. % of his career as well), he rebounded more than ever in his career, & his blocks & steals were 2d best of all his years.

It's not a slam-dunk that he was worth the $5m+ he earned (not to mention that at almost 31 years old we signed him for 3 years). Still... at least he turned out better than expected which is more than can be said about the other guys we acquired in that disastrous set of moves (Mahinmi, Nicholson, Burke).

Also, if Otto continues his breakout into being a star and Oubre proves to be a top 15 NBA SF then we may have to re-evaluate.

Re-evaluate what? Ernie's skills? No thanks. Perhaps that's not what you meant, but if so...

For sure, the move up for Oubre was a very good decision on Ernie's part. I applauded it at the time, & I'm happy to give him credit for it. It's unambiguous; Ernie & the FO made a good move.

& wow, does that good move stand out. Because, it was the ping pong balls not Ernie's perspicacity that gave us Porter, who was the default pick at #3 that year -- that's where he was on every mock draft I saw. Since he was also local & therefore a marketing plus, it was all the more obvious that he'd be the pick.

Ernie doesn't get re-evaluated, b/c he made the default pick at #3. Any more than he gets re-evaluated b/c the ping pong balls gave us John Wall. Or even for picking Beal -- again the default pick at his spot on every single mock draft (i.e. if MK-G went #2, as he did).

[trast66]

But if Meeks is healthy he will leave for more money. It’s only downside for us. He stinks or gets hurt he opts in, plays well he is gone.

[closg00]

My complaint about Meeks is not about his deal, its how EG never places a team-option into the contract.

[closg00]

Regarding KO, I am of two minds.

1. With Otto in the fold they both can't get paid so KO could be a good trade chip
2. Knowing that Kieff would be a UFA next year, I would have been fine taking Portis and perhaps moving forward with him at PF and trading Kieff and his expiring contract.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Ian is the icing on the **** cake baked by EG.

Maybe his worst move of all...and there have been many

[DCZards]

& wow, does that good move stand out. Because, it was the ping pong balls not Ernie's perspicacity that gave us Porter, who was the default pick at #3 that year -- that's where he was on every mock draft I saw. Since he was also local & therefore a marketing plus, it was all the more obvious that he'd be the pick.

Ernie doesn't get re-evaluated, b/c he made the default pick at #3. Any more than he gets re-evaluated b/c the ping pong balls gave us John Wall. Or even for picking Beal -- again the default pick at his spot on every single mock draft (i.e. if MK-G went #2, as he did).

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

[montestewart]

& wow, does that good move stand out. Because, it was the ping pong balls not Ernie's perspicacity that gave us Porter, who was the default pick at #3 that year -- that's where he was on every mock draft I saw. Since he was also local & therefore a marketing plus, it was all the more obvious that he'd be the pick.

Ernie doesn't get re-evaluated, b/c he made the default pick at #3. Any more than he gets re-evaluated b/c the ping pong balls gave us John Wall. Or even for picking Beal -- again the default pick at his spot on every single mock draft (i.e. if MK-G went #2, as he did).

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

EG doesn't seem like the kind of guy to adjust at the last minute and take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. He's pretty predictable, and that seems to be the way he's viewed around the league, so it's not a surprise that he passed on Noel. He may also have had access to information about Noel's health that contributed to sticking with Porter, but whatever his reasons, I'm damn glad he did and it's definitely a move in the plus column.

[queridiculo]

I wonder what goes through Leonsis head when he sees Mahinmi out there straight robbing him every time he steps onto the court?

[trast66]

I wonder what goes through Leonsis head when he sees Mahinmi out there straight robbing him every time he steps onto the court?

Point 8 of the 10 point plan: Add veterans to the team via shorter term deals as free agents. Signing long-term, expensive deals for vets is very risky. We try to add vets to the mix for two year or three year deals.

[DCZards]

& wow, does that good move stand out. Because, it was the ping pong balls not Ernie's perspicacity that gave us Porter, who was the default pick at #3 that year -- that's where he was on every mock draft I saw. Since he was also local & therefore a marketing plus, it was all the more obvious that he'd be the pick.

Ernie doesn't get re-evaluated, b/c he made the default pick at #3. Any more than he gets re-evaluated b/c the ping pong balls gave us John Wall. Or even for picking Beal -- again the default pick at his spot on every single mock draft (i.e. if MK-G went #2, as he did).

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

EG doesn't seem like the kind of guy to adjust at the last minute and take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. He's pretty predictable, and that seems to be the way he's viewed around the league, so it's not a surprise that he passed on Noel. He may also have had access to information about Noel's health that contributed to sticking with Porter, but whatever his reasons, I'm damn glad he did and it's definitely a move in the plus column.

Doesn't that statement contradict what happened just 2 years later when EG did the unpredictable and moved up in the draft to draft Oubre?

[trast66]

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

EG doesn't seem like the kind of guy to adjust at the last minute and take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. He's pretty predictable, and that seems to be the way he's viewed around the league, so it's not a surprise that he passed on Noel. He may also have had access to information about Noel's health that contributed to sticking with Porter, but whatever his reasons, I'm damn glad he did and it's definitely a move in the plus column.

Doesn't that statement contradict what happened just 2 years later when EG did the unpredictable and moved up in the draft to draft Oubre?

Fair point. DId Abe force the 2009 draft trade and Arenas re-sign? Did Abe and Ted demand the selling of 2nd round picks? It's highly possible. Makes it more difficult to judge Ernie, but a GM in demand from other teams would have quit if those moves forced on him. 14+ years with very limited success and the gun incident alone, he only survives as a total yes man. Ultimately an ownership problem, but he is far from bright enough to overcome mediocre ownership.

[pcbothwel]

My complaint about Meeks is not about his deal, its how EG never places a team-option into the contract.

Ehh, im sure we could of gotten a TO instead, but you have to pay more for it. So we would of needed to give Meeks 2/7.5 instead of 2/6.5. Thats an extra 500-800k this year which also matters as we knew we were going into the tax.

[montestewart]

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

EG doesn't seem like the kind of guy to adjust at the last minute and take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. He's pretty predictable, and that seems to be the way he's viewed around the league, so it's not a surprise that he passed on Noel. He may also have had access to information about Noel's health that contributed to sticking with Porter, but whatever his reasons, I'm damn glad he did and it's definitely a move in the plus column.

Doesn't that statement contradict what happened just 2 years later when EG did the unpredictable and moved up in the draft to draft Oubre?

Agreed, and that was also a good move he deserves credit for, although in general it's kind of an outlier. I'm thinking more along the lines of Vesely and Singleton, players he seemed zeroed in on well before the draft.

[payitforward]

& wow, does that good move stand out. Because, it was the ping pong balls not Ernie's perspicacity that gave us Porter, who was the default pick at #3 that year -- that's where he was on every mock draft I saw. Since he was also local & therefore a marketing plus, it was all the more obvious that he'd be the pick.

Ernie doesn't get re-evaluated, b/c he made the default pick at #3. Any more than he gets re-evaluated b/c the ping pong balls gave us John Wall. Or even for picking Beal -- again the default pick at his spot on every single mock draft (i.e. if MK-G went #2, as he did).

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

Yes, you are right that Noel was #1 on most mock drafts, w/ Oladipo #2 & Porter #3. In fact, I can't remember a single mock draft that had the top 3 ordered differently from that.

For that reason, if Noel had simply fallen unexpectedly & been available, then you would be right -- Porter might no longer have been the "default" at #3. There might have been a question whether to take Noel instead of him. Good point.

But, as you recall, it didn't happen quite that way. What happened was that word came out that Noel was injured, that he would miss his rookie season -- as in fact he did -- & that the injury might indicate a longer term problem. That was what caused him to drop all the way to #6.

Now, what worried me at that point was that if he slipped, Oladipo would go #1, & Otto would move up & be taken at #2. Had that happened, had Otto been gone when it was our pick, then there would have been no clear default; Ernie would have had a hard decision whom to pick. Myself, I'd have rolled the dice on the injury & taken Noel. The other guys projected in the first handful didn't interest me at all (Bennett, Len, Zeller, McLemore, etc.).

But, the default order after #1 was restored by Cleveland's wild card pick of Bennett @ #1 -- that put the default mock draft order back in place for the next few picks -- Oladipo @#2 & Otto right back as the default #3.

In other words, unless you are suggesting that Ernie should have taken Noel over Porter (as in fact many people here did suggest -- & even insist) -- yes, Otto "really" was the default when our turn came.

& good for Ernie that he took him! Had he taken Len, Zeller or McLemore it would have been a pretty disastrous error. He gets credit for being able to make the default move. Just not a huge amount of credit! Keep in mind that all I said was that making the default pick wasn't a basis for re-evaluating Ernie's skills as a GM. I have no trouble standing by that statement.

[payitforward]

EG doesn't seem like the kind of guy to adjust at the last minute and take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. He's pretty predictable, and that seems to be the way he's viewed around the league, so it's not a surprise that he passed on Noel. He may also have had access to information about Noel's health that contributed to sticking with Porter, but whatever his reasons, I'm damn glad he did and it's definitely a move in the plus column.

Doesn't that statement contradict what happened just 2 years later when EG did the unpredictable and moved up in the draft to draft Oubre?

Agreed, and that was also a good move he deserves credit for, although in general it's kind of an outlier. I'm thinking more along the lines of Vesely and Singleton, players he seemed zeroed in on well before the draft.

I'm trying to figure out what you're after here, Zards. This exchange was set in motion by my writing that the fact that Ernie chose Porter #3 & that Porter is working out very well wasn't enough to make a person want to "re-evaluate" Ernie's skills as a GM. Does that really seem a controversial position on my part.

As to the surprise of his moving up to nab Oubre -- I made the explicit point that it was a terrific move on his part. If you remember back when he made the move, I applauded him for it then, & when a number of people criticized it (including Hands), I defended it again.

I also thought Ernie had a couple of other stretches of good work as GM -- especially at the end of '09-10 when the coming FA feeding frenzy of the Summer put him in a position to get Heinrich & a 2010 #1 for essentially nothing (the rights to Vereemenko) & then again when he traded Heinrich to Atlanta for Crawford & a 2011 #1 pick. & his trade up to get Booker (a move very like the one he made for Oubre). I've also never criticized him for picking Seraphin, even though he didn't work out. Or for getting Crawford, for that matter, even though he too didn't pan out. You can make the right move & have it not work out right; it happens.

So, as I say, I don't understand where your going here. If you want to prove me wrong, hey, I've been wrong about many things! How could I not be? This isn't one of them, however. Just as Ernie doesn't get high praise for being lucky w/ the ping pong balls, even though of course we're happy he was, he also doesn't get a high mark for picking at #3 the guy everyone said would go #3. OTOH, he does get a high mark for the Oubre move.

The problem w/ Ernie is all those other moves that were utterly & obviously bad. It's too long a list to repeat.

[Kanyewest]

& wow, does that good move stand out. Because, it was the ping pong balls not Ernie's perspicacity that gave us Porter, who was the default pick at #3 that year -- that's where he was on every mock draft I saw. Since he was also local & therefore a marketing plus, it was all the more obvious that he'd be the pick.

Ernie doesn't get re-evaluated, b/c he made the default pick at #3. Any more than he gets re-evaluated b/c the ping pong balls gave us John Wall. Or even for picking Beal -- again the default pick at his spot on every single mock draft (i.e. if MK-G went #2, as he did).

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

EG doesn't seem like the kind of guy to adjust at the last minute and take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. He's pretty predictable, and that seems to be the way he's viewed around the league, so it's not a surprise that he passed on Noel. He may also have had access to information about Noel's health that contributed to sticking with Porter, but whatever his reasons, I'm damn glad he did and it's definitely a move in the plus column.

Noel had quite a few red flags.

- Injury concerns
- No discernible offensive moves and upside of only a Theo Ratliff
- Bad handlers - made it difficult for teams to work out Noel who was coming off of knee surgery.

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/1/is-nerlens-entourage-costing-him-the-number-one-pick/

Of course it took time for Porter to prove he was worth the pick but overall Ernie gets credit for the pick. And probably for the Kelly Oubre pick. Overall though, his signings in 2016 are enough to get him fired, not to mention the Eric Maynor, Gary Neal, Alan Anderson, and the 2011 NBA draft. Not sure what it will take to get Ernie fired.

[montestewart]

Was Otto really the "default" pick with Nerlens Noel still available when the Zards drafted? A lot of those same mock drafts that had Otto going #3 also had Noel going #1.

EG doesn't seem like the kind of guy to adjust at the last minute and take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. He's pretty predictable, and that seems to be the way he's viewed around the league, so it's not a surprise that he passed on Noel. He may also have had access to information about Noel's health that contributed to sticking with Porter, but whatever his reasons, I'm damn glad he did and it's definitely a move in the plus column.

Noel had quite a few red flags.

- Injury concerns
- No discernible offensive moves and upside of only a Theo Ratliff
- Bad handlers - made it difficult for teams to work out Noel who was coming off of knee surgery.

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/1/is-nerlens-entourage-costing-him-the-number-one-pick/

Of course it took time for Porter to prove he was worth the pick but overall Ernie gets credit for the pick. And probably for the Kelly Oubre pick. Overall though, his signings in 2016 are enough to get him fired, not to mention the Eric Maynor, Gary Neal, Alan Anderson, and the 2011 NBA draft. Not sure what it will take to get Ernie fired.

Choosing Porter wasn't a brilliant draft move in the vein of Dirk Nowitzki, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, etc. Four other teams passed on Noel before the Sixers grabbed him with an acquired pick used as part of its new tank-n-draft strategy (Noel sitting out a year, like Embiid and Simmons would later, fit right into that strategy). They probably all were acting on similar information regarding a player most considered a shoo-in for #1 but for the injury concerns.

It is nonetheless a good move and one in the plus category. EG has some successes, but he has more moves in the failure column, and considering the assets he's had at his disposal, it seems he should have more to show than a maxed out team that still seems a piece or two short of a serious shot and has a lousy bench.

Also, I think I recall EG rationalizing that despite Noel being available, the Wizards wanted a player who was ready to contribute right away (forget the exact wording), so when Porter barely played at all his first year (319 MP) it was kind of a head scratcher. Regardless, Porter may eventually convince us all that he's the best player on the roster.

[closg00]

When we drafted Brad we also needed a SG, perfect fit. When we drafted Otto, we needed a SF, perfect fit. Wall, Ball & Otto were easy calls and they all fit positions of need, easy work for Ernie there.

[Kanyewest]

When we drafted Brad we also needed a SG, perfect fit. When we drafted Otto, we needed a SF, perfect fit. Wall, Ball & Otto were easy calls and they all fit positions of need, easy work for Ernie there.

Wizards didn't need a small forward. They had Webster coming off a career season and Trevor Ariza. They did need a center. And that's why they traded a first rounder for Gortat a few months later.

Sent from my LG-D851 using RealGM mobile app

[pcbothwel]

When we drafted Brad we also needed a SG, perfect fit. When we drafted Otto, we needed a SF, perfect fit. Wall, Ball & Otto were easy calls and they all fit positions of need, easy work for Ernie there.

Wizards didn't need a small forward. They had Webster coming off a career season and Trevor Ariza. They did need a center. And that's why they traded a first rounder for Gortat a few months later.

Sent from my LG-D851 using RealGM mobile app

Thank you. Zeller, Len, and Noel were widely preferred by many people with us just bringing back Ariza.
2 way wings that can spread the floor are the prize possessions in the modern NBA... And only GS and Boston appear to be clearly better in that regard.