Deni Avdija

[prime1time]

...This will be a very fascinating off-season for Sheppard. I wouldn't be surprised to see us trade some of our young players for a star....

Do you have something particular in mind. It's hard for me to see potential trade value in any combination of Rui, Deni, Kispert, our R1 pick &/or Kuzma that would bring back a top tier player.

This should probably go in the offseason plan thread....

Too early. We really need to see how the playoffs goes.

[FAH1223]

Congrats to Deni for being the only guy to play all 82 games for the Bullets in 2021-22.

The only players that played all 82 games this NBA season:

Deni Avdija
Saadiq Bey
Mikal Bridges
Kevon Looney
Dwight Powell

Powell and Avdija were coming off injuries too.

Buddy Hield, Alec Burks, Patty Mills, and Terance Mann played 81 games.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Congrats to Deni for being the only guy to play all 82 games for the Bullets in 2021-22.

The only players that played all 82 games this NBA season:

Deni Avdija
Saadiq Bey
Mikal Bridges
Kevon Looney
Dwight Powell

Powell and Avdija were coming off injuries too.

Buddy Hield, Alec Burks, Patty Mills, and Terance Mann played 81 games.

There is a saying that goes availability is the best ability

[80sballboy]

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=kPiS-1AknznH57UVmLECpA

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=kPiS-1AknznH57UVmLECpA

[dobrojim]

Very interesting comparison TSW pointed out on a BulletsForever post. Deni is strikingly
similar to TBJ. I was a lot more optimistic about Deni before listening to the podcast
of Kev and Ben's 2021-2022 post-mort.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=avdijde01&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=browntr01&p2yrfrom=2020#stats-per_poss

In the podcast, they mention that the things Deni needs to improve on are beginner level
skills, ie using his left or shooting, in the context of NBA players.

I do like Deni but it was hard to argue with the points made in the podcast.
Sobering.


https://anchor.fm/sowizards/episodes/Washington-Wizards-2021-22-Season-Post-Mortem-with-Ben-Becker-e1h7551/a-a7oon56

[Shoe]

Very interesting comparison TSW pointed out on a BulletsForever post. Deni is strikingly
similar to TBJ. I was a lot more optimistic about Deni before listening to the podcast
of Kev and Ben's 2021-2022 post-mort.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=avdijde01&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=browntr01&p2yrfrom=2020#stats-per_poss

In the podcast, they mention that the things Deni needs to improve on are beginner level
skills, ie using his left or shooting, in the context of NBA players.

I do like Deni but it was hard to argue with the points made in the podcast.
Sobering.


https://anchor.fm/sowizards/episodes/Washington-Wizards-2021-22-Season-Post-Mortem-with-Ben-Becker-e1h7551/a-a7oon56

Deni just put up +0.44 LEBRON in his second season and TBJ has yet to have a season higher than -1.08.

Deni is 6'9 and more impactful.

I wouldn't write off TBJ yet though, he can still turn his career around.

[dobrojim]

Whatever your height is, your relative contribution to winning
is whatever it is. No player’s PPA gets a height adjustment.

[Shoe]

Whatever your height is, your relative contribution to winning
is whatever it is. No player’s PPA gets a height adjustment.

I doubt any stat adjusts for height. Deni being 6'9 is just one explanation for why he is more impactful per 100 possessions.

[doclinkin]

Whatever your height is, your relative contribution to winning
is whatever it is. No player’s PPA gets a height adjustment.

I think Kevin's YODA prospect analyzer does adjust for height relative to their likely NBA position.

[payitforward]

Whatever your height is, your relative contribution to winning
is whatever it is. No player’s PPA gets a height adjustment.

I think Kevin's YODA prospect analyzer does adjust for height relative to their likely NBA position.

No. Here's the YODA formula:

Per 40 minutes,

1. add up:
total points scored by the player
.3 x the player's defensive rebounds
.7 x the player's offensive rebounds
the player's steals
.5 x the player's assists + blocks
-- That gives you a first number.

2. Now, add up:
.7 x missed field goals by the player
made field goals by the player
the player's turnovers
.5 x the total of the player's free throw attempts + fouls
-- Which gives you a second number.

3. Subtract the second number from the first number. The result is the player's YODA.

[nate33]

Whatever your height is, your relative contribution to winning
is whatever it is. No player’s PPA gets a height adjustment.

I doubt any stat adjusts for height. Deni being 6'9 is just one explanation for why he is more impactful per 100 possessions.

Yes. If Avdija and Brown post identical numbers, Avdija is the more useful player because he has the capability of guarding more positions.

But even more importantly than that, just from the eye test, I can see that Avdija is a much better individual defender - which doesn't show up in the box score. That alone makes Avdija a better player than Brown. Brown was always a sub-par on-ball defender - a little too slow to guard SG's, and a little too small to guard forwards.

[payitforward]

Of course, there's no way to calculate YODA for Deni -- the formula uses college numbers.

Note as well that it makes no adjustment for strength of college schedule.

Still it can be useful for comparing guys who play more or less the same strength of schedule (same conference, etc.) & all the more so if you happen to be looking at two guys on the same team.

Especially if they play the same or similar positions -- i.e. it'd be to decide between picking the PG of a team vs. the team's C simply by comparing their YODA numbers, because, in general, bigs always put up better raw numbers, shoot far higher FG%s, etc.

More useful to compare a couple of guards or a couple of forwards.

[dobrojim]

Whatever your height is, your relative contribution to winning
is whatever it is. No player’s PPA gets a height adjustment.

I doubt any stat adjusts for height. Deni being 6'9 is just one explanation for why he is more impactful per 100 possessions.

My point was actually the opposite of what I think you are suggesting.
Your height doesn't change the good or bad things you do. When Muggsy or Manute scored
a basket, in either case it was worth 2 points. No one ought to look at a performance
indicator, whichever one you prefer, and then say 'but that player has great size'.
Size can partially explain why a player performs at a given level, but it doesn't
change what that performance is.

FWIW, I am here to neither praise or disparage Deni. I just want to be clear eyed about
all our players. Deni had a PPA this year that is on par with what a 9th or 10th best player
on a *good team* would have. I'm sure he will be better next year. The important thing
really is the gap between where he is now and where we should realistically expect him
to be while he is still under contract.

[dobrojim]

Of course, there's no way to calculate YODA for Deni -- the formula uses college numbers.

Note as well that it makes no adjustment for strength of college schedule.

Still it can be useful for comparing guys who play more or less the same strength of schedule (same conference, etc.) & all the more so if you happen to be looking at two guys on the same team.

Especially if they play the same or similar positions -- i.e. it'd be to decide between picking the PG of a team vs. the team's C simply by comparing their YODA numbers, because, in general, bigs always put up better raw numbers, shoot far higher FG%s, etc.

More useful to compare a couple of guards or a couple of forwards.

PPA and YODA are obviously different tools. YODA attempts to be predictive of what to expect going forward.
PPA is descriptive of present level of performance.

[doclinkin]

I think Kevin's YODA prospect analyzer does adjust for height relative to their likely NBA position.

No. Here's the YODA formula:

Per 40 minutes,

1. add up:
total points scored by the player
.3 x the player's defensive rebounds
.7 x the player's offensive rebounds
the player's steals
.5 x the player's assists + blocks
-- That gives you a first number.

2. Now, add up:
.7 x missed field goals by the player
made field goals by the player
the player's turnovers
.5 x the total of the player's free throw attempts + fouls
-- Which gives you a second number.

3. Subtract the second number from the first number. The result is the player's YODA.

Love it when you are definitively wrong

The base formula can be simplified to: points + 0.3 x defensive rebounds + 0.7 x offensive rebounds + steals + 0.5 x (assists + blocks) - 0.7 x field goals missed - field goals made - turnovers - 0.5 x (free throw attempts + fouls). Additional steps include accounting for age, level of competition, position and physical attributes such as length and athleticism. All inputs come from publicly available information.

PIFsplaining to me something that WizardsKev and I discussed when he was generating the concept. IIRC I was the one who suggested he analyze the player relative to the biggest position they would probably play in the NBA. He agreed and came up with a correction.I think I also suggested he look at player's age, since successful younger players tend to have a higher ceiling the earlier they show that success. But I read that in a paper so that is someone else's brainstorm. (This was back when Kev was active on the APBRMetrics.org nerd stat bball board I think).

[Runner300]

I'm yet to see any actual basketball related discussion on that site, other than endless juggling of hyper advanced statistics.
Every time they talk Deni, the general idea is "trade him for a pair of sneakers".

[badinage]

What I love is, we all know defense is half the game, yet the advanced stats that people trot out don’t include defense, of any kind.

So, by the reckoning of some formula, Deni is performing at the level of an 8th or 9th best player on a good team (what does that even mean, good team? The Celtics of 2022? Or the Celtics of 1986?).

Factor in his defense, which in a defensive graph I recently saw for wing defenders pegged him as Top 5 (more precisely, no. 4), and what does that get you?

And now factor in his age.

And now factor in where he is in his development.

[nate33]

What I love is, we all know defense is half the game, yet the advanced stats that people trot out don’t include defense, of any kind.

So, by the reckoning of some formula, Deni is performing at the level of an 8th or 9th best player on a good team (what does that even mean, good team? The Celtics of 2022? Or the Celtics of 1986?).

Factor in his defense, which in a defensive graph I recently saw for wing defenders pegged him as Top 5 (more precisely, no. 4), and what does that get you?

And now factor in his age.

And now factor in where he is in his development.

And factor that he has one of the best on/off differentials on the team. The team plays better with him on the floor.

[dobrojim]

What I love is, we all know defense is half the game, yet the advanced stats that people trot out don’t include defense, of any kind.

So, by the reckoning of some formula, Deni is performing at the level of an 8th or 9th best player on a good team (what does that even mean, good team? The Celtics of 2022? Or the Celtics of 1986?).

Factor in his defense, which in a defensive graph I recently saw for wing defenders pegged him as Top 5 (more precisely, no. 4), and what does that get you?

And now factor in his age.

And now factor in where he is in his development.

1. PPA does include defense. That said, I'm not arguing that advanced stats like PPA are that great when
it comes to defense ratings. Neither does Kevin. Everyone knows defensive impact is hard
to measure accurately in a comprehensive way. https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/

2. What does a good team mean? Well I suppose it could mean a lot of things but lets start by saying
a + .500 team perhaps, or maybe a playoff team. No, I'm pretty sure it doesn't mean the 86 Celtics.
Suffice to say, I would disagree with anyone who suggests that how I (or Kevin) used the term
'good team' is deceptive, inaccurate or unfair.

Kevin is a pretty smart guy and came up with PPA to try to create as accurate a single number descriptive (metric)
that is as useful as possible. If you are unfamiliar with it, perhaps you should become more acquainted before
being as dismissive as your comments sound. Check out the link above. If you still think PPA is trash,
I'd be interested in your explanation as to why. And what single number metric you prefer.

3. Yes Deni is still pretty young and I would agree with anyone who expects he will get better given his
current age.

4. Where he is in his development? Here is where reasonable folks can differ.
It's said he needs to improve shooting and his left hand (which we hardly ever see him use).
I've heard discussion as to where expectations ought to be for an NBA player now
finishing his 3rd year on things like shooting and ball handling which are pretty
important for wing players.


On the whole, I think this (link below) is a fair analysis of where Deni is right now.
He's a promising young player who still needs to improve a fair amount
in order to become a really good player by which I'll define as performing
at the level of a top 6 player on a playoff team. Or with a PPA over 100
which is league average.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/4/16/23027949/avdijas-second-season-was-a-step-in-the-right-direction-can-he-take-the-next-step

[dckingsfan]

That is pretty much where I am at... Deni improved but not to the level that I would have hoped.

Seems like every year one of our offseason "hopes" is that one of the youngsters breaks through. Given that we are a bad team, I would hope we would have plenty of players with the potential.

Code: Select all

Isaiah Todd      20
Deni Avdija      21
Vernon Carey     21
Corey Kispert    23
Daniel Gafford   23
Rui Hachimura    24

I have no hope for Todd or Carey and Hachimura is getting to the end of the period where potentially will have a large jump. So, of course we are hoping for Deni to be the one to make the jump.

#sowizards