The Consiglieri wrote:DCZards wrote:nate33 wrote:I think, with patience, we could have gotten a similar offer to the Portland deal, but with the lotto pick not coming from the worst draft in a generation.
Worst draft in a generation? Says who?
I keep hearing this narrative about how bad last year’s draft was but, imo, that remains to be seen.
Is the #4 pick in this year’s draft going to turn out to be a better player than Castle? I have my doubts.
Jordan Hawkins went 14 in the 2023 draft and Bub went 14 in the 2024 draft. Hawkins is an outstanding shooter but Bub is a much better all around player.
Jared McCain went 16 in the 2024 draft. He’d likely be top ten in the 2023 draft.
George went 24 in the 2024 draft. There may be 3-4 players who went 9-24 in the 2023 draft who I would take over Kyshawn.
Says every scout I've heard quoted on its quality. Just about all of them referred to it as similarly graded to 2000, and 2013, and if they didn't specifically reference those classes, they consistently meant them (and probably '09) as an analogy. None of that means there aren't hidden diamonds in those drafts like Giannis, Gobert, or Steph etc, but it does mean that going in, the scouts looking at them viewed them as unusually weak in terms of perceived top end, high ceiling prospects, and depth of top end prospects.
That's what they mean. I feel like people are being deliberately obtuse about this, as if you don't know that the '22 class of rookie QB's was regarded as crap and the '24 was regarded as excelllent. Scouts do indeed make these judgments and while not always right, generally, these takes are right. I can go through an absolute litany of examples in multiple sports. Do they get hidden stars wrong? Yes, like all drafts do, do they sometimes overrate classes, yes, absolutely, are they generally right? Yes they are.
This is not some crazy idea. It's history and present. There is a reason it was fantastic that our football team bottomed out in the '23 season rather than the '21 season and anyone that follows the NFL draft knows exactly why. Same with bottoming out during '22-'23, rather than '23-'24 in the NBA.
I get the added nuance that scouts considered the draft to be pretty average in terms of typical guys selected in the 6-30 zone or outside lottery zone or whatever, but the reality is, any draft that has zero cream in scouts eyes, is going to inevitably push up lesser talents higher because those cream players (this draft supposedly having 1-3 and 4-5? or 4-6 depending upon whom you talk to)....since I lean in football analogies, this is how you have a Pickett getting drafted top 20ish at QB in a terrible QB draft in '22, when he'd nomally go in the mid 2nd. It's not as drastic in the '24 vs '25 class, but it definitely pushes up a Bub to 14, where he'd probably normally be going 19-25. A kyshawn probably normally 28-35, goes 24 etc.
1. There is no "normally."
2. Neither you nor I -- nor anyone else -- has either the experience or the natural ability to make these kinds off sweeping judgments.
3. Suppose for a moment that a particular draft turns out to be "thin" in the top, say, 6-9 guys that -- fact could have no bearing whatever on how a guy taken at 14 or 24 (or any other spot) is, nor on where he would have gone in a prior draft, nor on where he'd go in a subsequent draft nor how good he is. He might be terrific. He might be terrible.
4. There is simply no such thing -- not at all, not in any way -- as a "typical" #14 pick. TBH, the idea is kind of ridiculous.
Here are all the #15 picks from '11 on: Jimmy Butler, Maurice Harkless, Giannis Antetekounmpo, Adreian Payne, Kelly Oubre, Juancho Hernangomez, Justin Jackson, Troy Brown Jr., Sekou Doumbouya, Cole Anthony, Corey Kispert, Mark Williams, Kobe Bufkin, Kel’el Ware.
You see any commonality? 2023 was a better draft than 2024, most would say, but I'd a lot rather have Kel'el Ware than Kobe Bufkin!
2017 was a terrific draft, most would agree, but Justin Jackson sure wasn't terrific. For that matter, Markell Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr., Zach Collins, Luke Kennard & Malik Monk, were all taken before Donovan Mitchell.
Over Bam Adebayo too.
& all those guys plus Justin Jackson, Justin Patton, DJ Wilson, TJ Leaf, Harry Giles & Terrance Ferguson were picked before Jarrett Allen & OG Anunoby.
Not to mention that all those guys plus another 8 guys were picked over Josh Hart.
Oh, & add another 12 guys before Isaiah Hartenstein was taken.
& that's in what we'd all agree was a "good" draft.
More or less the same pattern applies in every single draft. All of them.
Over time, do you think picks 4 through 13 have been a lot better than picks 14 through 23?
& when you discover that, no, they have not... will you start to change the way you think about the draft?
Nah, I didn't think so!
