2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[Jay81]

new NBA Draft mock has barnes at 2...trob to us at 3 and MKG 5 to Sac

http://www.nbadraft.net/

[Knighthonor]

new NBA Draft mock has barnes at 2...trob to us at 3 and MKG 5 to Sac

http://www.nbadraft.net/

Totally figured this. HB is getting majorly underratted on the forum, especially when compared to MKG who is kinda overrated here since he was on the same team as Davis.

Check those two highlight vids I posted a few pages back. HB>MKG and much more fitting into the issue Washington has.

[dangermouse]

I'm still really meh on Barnes.

Athletic scores havent changed that. He isnt a top 3 pick imo.

Beal gives us everything Barnes does and then some. And he's 18. No brainer. I'd rather take him, MKG or TRob, in that order.

Interesting about Barnes cancelling the workout for Sac. IF he has a promise, I would think Cleveland, and i would hope beyond hope that it isnt us.

He may not even have a promise, we dont know why he cancelled.

[payitforward]

If you don't think those things are what make a player outstanding, I'm not going to argue that point with you. What I'm claiming is only the numbers and those can't be argued with.

I won't argue with the numbers, but a reasonable person also has to acknowledge that situation and circumstances can have a significant impact on numbers. Do you really believe that being on the floor with Duncan, Manu and Parker is no different than being on the court with McGee, Crawford and Wall?

No, of course not. It's very different. In one case you are on the floor with very good players; in the other case you are on the floor with bad players.

What "a reasonable person" believes is not relevant -- reasonable people believe all kinds of common wisdoms that have no factual basis.

Let me put it back to you in the same terms. A guy takes an open shot and misses it. How would you calculate the effect on his shot of having one or another set of players on the floor. If LeBron is on the floor with him, you think he will make that shot more often?

The year after LeBron left Cleveland, Anderson Varejao's FG% went up. Why? In one case, a guy gets better when his teammates are worse? In another a guy is better because he plays with better teammates. It's nonsense, sorry.

[Halcyon]

To be completely non-analytical for a second, I would hate having to watch Barnes most nights. He has terrible handle and is so stiff, he doesn't look like a natural basketball player, and looks more like a tall guy who has the physical tools and choose to play basketball.

[nate33]

Sactown beat writer

According to an NBA source, Harrison Barnes had a workout scheduled in Sacramento on Friday, but has cancelled. Top 4 promise?

It might just be that neither Beal nor Barnes want to play in Sacramento so they refused to workout there.

[willbcocks]

Let me ask a question about this "obvious difference"? Do you think this issue has been studied empirically? By people who access tons of data about individual player productivity as players move from team to team and from coach to coach?

If you do think it's been studied, then wouldn't the results of those studies be relevant here?

Yes, I'm pretty sure they would be relevant. And the issue has been studied. And the results show that there is virtually no difference in what a player puts up by way of efficiency and numbers as he moves. Really, how surprising is that? It's the same guy.

Those sound like interesting studies. Can you please link them here? Did they compare players moving from highly efficient offensive team to inefficient ones? That would be the most relevant analysis here, as we're not talking about someone moving from any one team to any other: we're talking about someone moving from one of the best offenses in the league to one of the worst.

Intuitively, my guess would be that players shooting percentages would improve if they moved to better offensive teams, but it sounds like the studies you are citing do not bear that out. I only had time to look up some players who had moved from Phoenix to other teams after playing with Nash, and Amare, Joe Johnson, Marion, Raja Bell, and Boris Diaw (everyone I checked) all had significant dips in their shooting percentages. Diaw then jumped from 41% to 58% moving from Charlotte to San Antonio. And you could see the types of shots players took changed a lot as they moved teams.

Payitforward: Can you please cite your source? Otherwise you're condescendingly telling people to trust stats you haven't provided rather than common wisdom.

[7-Day Dray]

Alex Kennedy: Executives are falling in love with Bradley Beal. Teams are trying to trade into the top four to select Beal, according to multiple sources. Twitter

Our #3 pick could probably get a lot of value in a trade.

[Illuminaire]

Harrison Barnes had a disappointing freshman season followed by a disappointing sophomore season. He displayed zero above average skills in college basketball, let alone the pros.

And yet, as expected, he could jump high in a controlled setting, so he is suddenly worthy of the 3rd pick?

Come on guys. We're a smarter board than this.

[7-Day Dray]

Alex Kennedy: Executives are falling in love with Bradley Beal. Teams are trying to trade into the top four to select Beal, according to multiple sources. Twitter

Our #3 pick could probably get a lot of value in a trade.

[payitforward]

If we can only go by what we've seen, Barnes has proven to be the better shooter (than Beal).

Do you know what you're talking about? At all? Barnes' eFG% this year = .49. Beal =.53 -- he's a significantly better shooter. And Barnes eFG% didn't improve from last year, while Beal got better right there in his Freshman year.

I think Beal will become a top shooting guard. I don't think Barnes will even be multi-year starter in the league.

[payitforward]

Changing our image as a franchise was worth more than overpaying a guy (Nick Young) who can basically only score and do very little else other than that and some okay on-ball defense.

You left out a few words: "who can basically only score once in a while and do very little else..."

[7-Day Dray]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html

A Western Conference front office executive recently said Barnes would probably be a better pro player than college player because he played in a system at North Carolina that didn’t complement his talents. The executive noted that Paul Pierce was the only quality small forward to play for Roy Williams “and that wasn’t because of Roy. His system is more for point guards and bigs.”

[payitforward]

Those sound like interesting studies. Can you please link them here?

Payitforward: Can you please cite your source? Otherwise you're condescendingly telling people to trust stats you haven't provided rather than common wisdom.

It's a reasonable request, no problem -- or rather the problem is that I read up on this about 2 years ago, so it'll take some work to find them. That said, I'll try.

I certainly have no intention to be condescending. On the other hand, it's annoying to hear that a guy who was obviously a better draft pick was only good because of other guys on the court.

Anything wrong with just letting a guy be as good as what he produces?

[Ed Wood]

Well that's not really fair, there wasn't anything especially wrong with Young's per minute scoring average; he was ninth in the league in scoring as a rate stat this year *edit: among shooting guards (Jordan was forth, clearly a very important measure of value). He doesn't do anything else and isn't so efficient doing it that you'd want to brag about it but he does shoot a lot.

There's nothing inherently wrong with this but my sense of Young is that his game is a product of the division of labor in the NBA which allows players to function in the league without being especially good at basketball in aggregate but it was always fun to watch him when he was locked in because it really seemed like the other team should be embarrassed to be unable to work out an antidote to Nick Young.

[DCZards]

I certainly have no intention to be condescending. On the other hand, it's annoying to hear that a guy who was obviously a better draft pick was only good because of other guys on the court.

I don't recall anyone saying that Leonard was only good because of other guys on the court, but I do recall people saying that Leonard benefitted--statisically and otherwise--from playing with Parker, Duncan and Manu, and being coached by Pop. But I guess you believe that being on the court with Parker, Duncan and Manu is no different than being on the court with Wall, McGee and Crawford.

[jivelikenice]

Harrison Barnes had a disappointing freshman season followed by a disappointing sophomore season. He displayed zero above average skills in college basketball, let alone the pros.

And yet, as expected, he could jump high in a controlled setting, so he is suddenly worthy of the 3rd pick?

Come on guys. We're a smarter board than this.

Was Beal's freshman season that much better than Barnes?

[BIG FURB]

Harrison Barnes had a disappointing freshman season followed by a disappointing sophomore season. He displayed zero above average skills in college basketball, let alone the pros.

And yet, as expected, he could jump high in a controlled setting, so he is suddenly worthy of the 3rd pick?

Come on guys. We're a smarter board than this.

He was disappointing only because he was projected to be a Kobe like talent and didnt live up ti that hype. His freshman year was hardly a bad season though (it was very similar to beals actually). And he improved in almost every category his sophomore year. He had a rough end to the year, but you guys are acting like he was trash or something.

Oh, and his mid-range game, step back jumper and ability to hit off the catch and shoot were all above average skills. MKG truly showed no above average skill, just great hustle and aggressiveness, yet people here are acting like he's some elite level talent. Folks, the elite level talent was the other guy from Kentucky. Come on guys, you're a smarter board than this

[W. Unseld]

Any chance we could drop the Blatche & Leanord aspects of this thread to get back to the draft?

[BIG FURB]

To be clear, I do like beal as a pick for you guys. He at least displayed some real offensive skill. I just don't understand why a team that clearly needs help offensively is so high on a guy like MKG